Keep A Weather Eye On This
If you’re paying any attention at all to things going on in the world (other than the Covid-19 bug attack), you may be aware that the US markets are down a bit. There are signals that trigger a halt in trading on the stock markets, so that a freefall event like the 1929 crash will not happen. Nothing wrong with a pause in trading, and right now the DJIA is in the drop-and-rise state.
But there is something else going on that anyone who remembers the Nixon administration and the Arab Oil Embargo will remember, and may fall down laughing about it, now.
The Saudis and Russia are pissing and hissing at each other over oil prices, particularly those related to China as a customer. Last reported price per barrel was $31.25 an hour or so ago (at 10:30AM EDT). I’m not going to track this, but those of you with an interest may do so. If it drops to real-world 1970s prices, ask yourselves how that will affect the price at the pump for you, the consumer of oil byproducts such as gasoline and diesel for vehicles.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Crash-20-As-Oil-War-Begins.html
And who will really benefit? That’s a good question, but harking back to the Arab oil embargo during Tricky Dick’s administration and debacle, I’d say that we, the consumers of the products derived from crude oil, will benefit before very long in lower prices at the pump, lower prices on a lot of thing we take for granted now such as consumer goods and the transportation of them, and who will be coming out on top in this mess. It may even drop your gas bill for heating and cooking somewhat lower. That would be nice in the winter, but — well, Spring is coming and being out in the back yard with the grill going seems like a good idea to me.
It’s got nothing to do with the Covid-19 virus, either. That will burn itself out as Spring is approaching, because that bug dislikes sunshine, warm weather and high humidities, and if you know that much, it’s not nearly as panicky a bug as it seems. This is how Mother Nature works: release the hounds and see which critters succeed, which don’t, and discard the unsuccessful.
You may want to keep a weather eye on prices at the pump through apps like Gas Buddy or something similar. With the economical engines being built now, if you put this in 1974 prices at the pump, ($0.35/gal went to $0.50+/-) your 12-gallon buggy may just cost you no more than that old 1970 Chevy Impala 8 cylinder engine for a fill-up. There’s a drive-in movie theater not to far from me. They might just benefit from this, too. Popcorn and summer nights at the drive-in….
I see some good times ahead, something you can pass on to your grandkids, who might face a choice between a (gag me!) Tesla 12-volt lithium-powered clanker, or a real car that snorts and roars past them on the open road.
Category: "Teh Stoopid", "The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves", America, Breaking News, Economy, Russia
Where do the Yuppsters think the electricity for their Teslas and Prius’ comes from, the wall?
My shop has a couple of these:
https://gem.polaris.com/en-us/
Both are lettered: POWERED BY COAL
They’re actually pretty handy around post.
I could get rid of my spare tire and jack
by putting one of those in the bed of my
Super Duty.
Is that wound up by an alarm clock key??
Runs on BA-30’s
Today, is the 11th birthday of the longest bull market in American stock exchange history. And today, the major stock indices are nearing a 20% decline (from peak to trough) signaling a bear market. So this bull market may die on its birthday.
Met with my financial advisor man today as a matter of fact. He wanted to buy my lunch. He’s a good kid, made my 401K do rather well over the last 12 years. Anyways, we had to change the meeting place from one Cracker Barrel to another because the charging station was at the one in Maconga. He didn’t have enough juice in his Tesla to make the round trip from May’rhetduh. I drove my Flex so as to have space for my Lady Friend and his happy ass. Coulda put that damn Tesla in the back of the Flex. (with both seats down) We talked about the market jitters and the oil drop. I have very little in either area that will make an effect on me. He is gonna look into the helicopters to India deal.
I do remember, quite well, the oil embargo. I had just DEROSed to Bragg from FRG and had bought a ’69 Chevelle. I think it took 4 gallons just to fill up the 4 barrel carb. Shore do wish I had that sweet ride now. I “like” fossil fueled internal combustion engines. My F150 will haul/pull anything out there. my Flex does a great job of transporting myself and companions, in style, with luggage, for long distances. My 6 speed turbo charged Nismo holds a lot and will scoot. And for the sheer thrill of road running, my Supercharged 5 speed Red Line holds the road like it is on rails. And no, none are for sale, yes I can only drive one at a time, and yes, take that you lying bitch of an ex, I am doing quite well…phuque you very indeed.
As for me, I just recently bought a nice new 4WD Pickup with a V8 Engine that not only gets very good fuel mileage, it wants to run like a pissed off racehorse when I hit that gas pedal! AS TO those with their coal-powered electric cars and Pwiuses, thanks for leaving more gas for me, I say FREE THE HYDROCARBONS trapped under the Earth’s crust and let the CO2 Emissions foster plant growth, let them help crops grow to feed the world’s people!
If the Ro is not reduced and the serious complication rate is 10% the medical system will be 100% utilized in 7 generations. We’re looking at a serious situation here.
And re oil, supply shock. If it’s not worth moving we may have an issue that companies may choose to not ship it. Do you always return your bottles for a deposit? At what point is the barrel more expensive than its contents?
I really hope I’m wrong on both accounts but the maths don’t lie.
Please have a plan.
We deal with worse flu events every year. Even if it is a “bad flu” we still handle those well.
The panic is doing all the damage.
Panic and exaggeration are the problems.
Most folks who get sick will get over this with bed rest and fluids.
Many folks won’t even know they have this, versus the usual cold/flu/crud of the season.
Already showing signs of a squib here. Watch.
Buy the dip. Now is the time to scarf up bargains for your retirement plan.
I agree with most of that but you’re discounting the volume in serious cases as a function of rate of infection which will be high. The case rate seems to be doubling every 4 days unrestrained, 6 with control measures, we MAY get it longer but it will take a lot of effort that is not being put forth here in the States, yet??!
Again, I hope the figures are wrong but at this point the die is cast, the horses are out of the barn, Roh-Dog is out of beer…
And re investing it’s your money, but until we retest the sideways action of 15-16 I ain’t touching it. Long gold and silver for now, the Fed will print harder than any of us have ever dreamed possible. Inflation will be over 20% (real number, not that fake BLS bs) by 2022.
The doubling can only last a few generations, then it has to Peter out.
The inflection point is whenever the bug is endemic. Can’t re-enact people who are not succeptable or who only experience mild symptoms.
Same reason multi-level marketing can’t make anyone rich except the first handful who start the scam.
Lots of folks will get it, here. Most will shrug it off the same way they do cold and flu season, yearly.
It isn’t even a very bad annual flu yet. So why all the hype and panic?
Because the serious complication and fatality rates are way higher with this bitch, it’s moving fast, and often undetected.
Medical system completely tapped out by late April/early May thanks to compounding.
Annual flu with worse outcomes doesn’t do that.
It has -less- problems for most folks than flu. The severe cases are concentrated in the very weak, elderly and immuno-compromised folk.
Most of those are not in major civilization support roles.
If they soak up the resources, most others just drive on the way they do every year.
It is -not-, demonstrably not, more lethal in the general population of healthy folks here.
The other places like Iran and China do not count. They live in ways that drive up lethality of bugs. We live in ways that make them less effective
Greater personal space and less touching.
Lower typical population density.
Much lower smoking rate (Pneumonia favors smokers, bigly).
Much healthier on average and vastly more body reserves (fat!) And vastly richer nutrient surplus diet.
Easy access to care. Vastly competent care. Docs generally work for patients, not government.
I can go on.
Evidence is every other global pandemic in the last 120 years.
We always do better. When have we not?
This is -not- a big deal. We deal with worse every few decades.
-not- a crisis, other than the panic and overreactions and stupid reactions.
We win. The bugs lose.
“The other places like Iran and China do not count. They live in ways that drive up lethality of bugs. We live in ways that make them less effective.”
Very true, places like Iran and China don’t even treat their sewage before dumping it.
While I like low oil prices, I am also mindful that those who work for and with the oil industry are employed when the price of oil pays for them to be employed. When you only get so much a barrel, any oil that costs more than that not be pumped, refined, or sold – which means that all those people who are gainfully employed now won’t be. Oil that is profitable at a cost of $35/barrel when prices are at $40 is good, when prices get to $30, layoffs happen. Lots and lots of layoffs. Lower prices are not an unmixed blessing.
We are the world’s largest producer, so the drop hits us too. That is coming off our GDP.
However, we are broad-sectored, so this is not nearly the catastrophe it is for Iran or Russia.
They are taking it in the shorts, no grease, and they may get desperate quickly.
One friend I was talking to today mentioned that he heard news of one viral expert hypothesizing that the Coronavirus cannot and will not do well in heat and humidity, thus making it “fizz out” come late spring and summer, but that making it out into the DNC-manipulated media? IMHO zero odds!
Cheeper Gas prices will definitely help the economy
But if you live in Texas / North Dakota or Alaska
Your going to lose your job so time to polish off the resume
I wonder what the excuse is going to be for why
The price will stay high at the pump if it doesn’t
As far as the market goes Skippys brother made a killing in 2007-2009
Period thanks in part to a bet he made that the market was going to take a shit
Dasyac smell opportunity in the market
One more note WTF is so much of our Pharma made in China And not here
what happened to Puerto Rico and all the Pharma
Outfits
Folks got laws passed favoring offloading their workers outside the USA.
Some folks were in China’s pocket for that. (Through the usual cutouts, of course).
Lowering taxes and regulations to something rational brings the jobs back.
Not sure if the information that the elderly are disproportionately being killed by this virus, while true enough, is even particularly significant. 15 of the dead in the US are from a nursing home. Would anyone seriously expect something other to happen when the population of nursing homes tends to be almost exclusively the elderly? If the virus was brought to a daycare center, would a similar result occur, except that the age of the victims would be much lower??
From the way this is being reported, it sounds like if you avoid going to nursing homes or on a cruise you can severely limit you potential exposure. That may actually be true, but it may also be irrelevant. The virus is more likely to cause problems wherever it is introduced and may or may not have anything to do with the age of those with whom you associate.
Excuse me. I gotta go wash my hands.
From what I understand kids are unusually resistant to this bug. They are far less at risk of serious complications.
Now “plague rat” is likely for the rugrat crowd. They get it, but not bad. Mom and dad get sick. Gramps gets hammered.
Oddly, seems to be hitting men much harder.