Iran Getting Ready to Sucker Punch us, or Just Pressuring us to do Things Their Way?
The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) doing turns. (U.S. Navy/Juan A. Cubano)
Intelligence has indicated that Iran influenced militias are positioning rockets near U.S. troops in Iraq. Out of precaution, nonessential US government personnel are being ordered out of Iraq. Iran’s Defense Minister has some words for us.
From Haaretz:
Iran will defeat the American and Israeli alliance, Iran’s Minister of Defense Amir Hatami said on Wednesday, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). “We will defeat the American-Zionist front,” he said.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group has arrived outside of the Arabian Gulf. Next on the itinerary, transit through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Arabian Gulf. Given Iran’s ability to “deploy drones undetected by our fleet” in order to “monitor” our maritime activities, we can expect fresh video coming from Iran… Right?
Additional information can be read in this article.
I don’t have any intel, actually I suffer quite acutely from the ability to have ANY, but seriously af; please, please, please have some food and seeds stored up.
Given the cluster-o’-f*ck of geopolitics right now, IMHO we’re on razor’s edge.
A quote from a report submitted to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Section 8-1, “As a final note, the bottom line for predicting E1 HEMP effects is that our modern world has never experienced such as assault. We can try to predict effects and draw upon similar effects and experimentation, but there is always the possibility of some surprise. Often even somewhat minor issues have lead to extensive problems in the past, which would not have been predicted. It is also not known how American society in general would react if massive infrastructure failures occur over a large region and for a long time.”
A member of the Congressional Commission on the National Powergrid, Dr Peter Pry, said that in a griddown scenario the death rate could be as high as 90%.
It’s too easy to be prepared. You have no excuse.
“how American society in general would react if massive infrastructure failures occur over a large region and for a long time”
They would loot rob and riot at first then wait for the government to do something.
Except around here everyone would go hunting, trapping and fishing.
We are not that fragile. Most of the folks who would seriously try such a thing lack the high-grade lift capability to get the needed -very- large warheads high enough to wreck large areas.
And our response would -exterminate- the folks who try it. Gone. And we have -plenty- to gut their friends and associates.
Prepping is generally prudent, but the examples of Katrina and the 2004 four-major-storm event of Florida show how well we recover. Also, the major blackout in the Northeast is instructive.
The folks making the most dire predictions fail to disclose that they are basing the scenario on -very- large warheads, and -very- heavy high-altitude-capable launchers. Not many nations have either. Very few have both.
You can’t kill us with a handful of 100kt weapons just out of the atmosphere. You need many multi-megaton weapons at several hundred miles. All at once.
And then we incinerate the attackers. Utterly. And any likely associates. Dresden and Tokyo pale in comparison.
Then we rebuild. They don’t.
“Prepping is generally prudent, but the examples of Katrina and the 2004 four-major-storm event of Florida show how well we recover. Also, the major blackout in the Northeast is instructive.”
This. I’ve worked a lot of natural disaster responses, including Katrina. With rare exception (the New Orleans looters), the community comes together in an inspiring way. The only place it doesn’t are in the neighborhoods that were shit to begin with.
One tornado I worked had literal bus loads of people coming from God knows where volunteering to clean up. There were so many that they’d hit a yard and have all the debris piled up in about 15 minutes.
“The folks making the most dire predictions fail to disclose that they are basing the scenario on -very- large warheads, and -very- heavy high-altitude-capable launchers. Not many nations have either. Very few have both.”
This is true. Chicago could be hit dead center and the worst case scenario is that we’d see a flash and maybe hear a bang, but the distance from here to there is enough to avoid the shock wave and the fallout and/or radiation would drift south and east, for the most part. The maps for this are online.
But I guess a kerosene stove for heating in case it’s winter when the attack occurs might be a good idea.
Besides, they aren’t going to come here. Any “bombings” will hit the major cities, which USE but do NOT PRODUCE electric power. And it won’t be missiles or that kind of thing. IT will be crowd bombers, setting off truck bombs or something they’re wired into in crowds.
Being a chemical guy, we had to plot endless nuke blasts during training. Since we were always using Korea maps that meant nothing to me, I looked at a local map one time.
You aren’t kidding. A 15kt blast (like Hiroshima) air bursting (the largest destructively) in the middle of Chicago wouldn’t even take out Navy Pier.
Here’s a fun little tool to play with.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
The destruction at Hiroshima was wider spread than at Nagasaki. The terrain around Nagasaki included hills that limited the area of destruction to about 2.6+/- miles from ground zero, whereas Hiroshima was flattened except for modern buildings (concrete and steel) that could withstand the blast.
If a bomb were detonated in Chicago’s Loop, the buildings are so closely crowded together and made of modern materials instead of wooden structures (as in Japan WWII), the damage might be considerably less. Of course that would depend on the explosion itself, but if you recall the events of the New York City Twin Towers, a church that stood in what engineers called a “shock shadow” was undamaged while other buildings not in that spot were damaged.
However, I do NOT want it to happen, period.
The book “One Second After” paints a pretty dark picture about what would happen.
If that is the one I am thinking of, the event needs at leat a dozen near-simultaneous 25MT warheads at something like 500+ miles altitude.
That is not feasible for any nation we face. Not currently.
The “one warhead” scenario is a fully fueled “Tzar Bomba” on a Saturn 1B. That is a fairly exclusive club, and none of the members are suicidal.
Those books sell hype, not practical scenarios.
Now, just about -any- yahoo nation these days can put a “little boy” on a freighter, and wreck your best seaport. And it is scalable with a small fleet and 1950s reactors.
South Africa had nukes of this type. And ships. And a “ragnarok” plan for them. And sanity prevailed and they disposed of them.
What we have to do is keep in everyone’s mind not “MAD” but “ADAH”: assured destruction of assholes. If you are asshole enough to use a nuke, you will be -extinct- by the end of the day. Not “sanctioned”, -extinct-. Slagged. A blue-glowing monument to folly.
Cauterized.
If I remember correctly (it’s been a while since I read the book) the book doesn’t state what knocked out the grid. A major coronal mass ejection would do the trick I think, but I’m not a scientist and I didn’t even stay at a Holliday Inn Express.
I may be mis-remembering.
The Sun can zorch us. The Carrington Event of the 19th century, occurring today, would be ….. dramatic. The average solar flare dwarfs the earth. CMEs are much bigger.
But we would be hard pressed to do -that- level of EMP.
“Iran Getting Ready to Sucker Punch us, or Just Pressuring us to do Things Their Way?”
I’d say neither. It’s a show of force to “save face” inside Iran.
– Daily oil production in Iran, the most important component of its economy, fell in September to the weakest level in nearly a quarter-century, according to monthly data released on Friday by the International Energy Agency.
-Trade in general has come under severe pressure. This is likely having a terrible impact on the population, particularly the poor.
-Economic hardship has triggered the first street protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions restricting its nuclear programme.
-Western officials believe that sanctions have put the regime under pressure. “There has been a wider effect on the economy and that affects people and businesses.”
-We are beginning to see the first signs of social unrest. But given the brutality with which the authorities are likely to respond, the protests have been largely subdued.
-Economic hardship has triggered the first street protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions restricting its nuclear programme. Western officials believe that sanctions have put the regime under pressure.
-In a rare public concession that the regime was struggling with the sanctions, Ayatollah Khamenei decried the measures this week. “These sanctions are barbaric,” he said. “This is a war against a nation. But the Iranian nation will defeat them.”
Source: Business Insider
“Given Iran’s ability to “deploy drones undetected by our fleet” in order to “monitor” our maritime activities, we can expect fresh video coming from Iran… Right?”
Nope, recent drone video was debunked by some French video analysts. I’ll find the post.
Here ’tis: Surprise! Iran Exposed for Faking U.S. Warship Surveillance Footage
https://valorguardians.com/blog/wp-admin/post.php?post=86769&action=edit&classic-editor
I’d say neither. It’s a show of force to “save face” inside Iran. The leadership in Iran and other countries have been doing this for decades. Point to the United States, or to the rich countries, then criticize and talk tough to direct their people’s attention away from internal problems. They’d do this regardless of whether we have a force out there or not. We’ve even had countries “in our column” during the Cold War, that did this. — Daily oil production in Iran, the most important component of its economy, fell in September to the weakest level in nearly a quarter-century, according to monthly data released on Friday by the International Energy Agency. -Trade in general has come under severe pressure. This is likely having a terrible impact on the population, particularly the poor. -Economic hardship has triggered the first street protests in Iran for three years as Tehran struggles to cope with UN, US and EU measures imposed to punish the country for violating resolutions restricting its nuclear programme. -Western officials believe that sanctions have put the regime under pressure. “There has been a wider effect on the economy and that affects people and businesses. The Iranians started to ramp up their crap talking when President Trump talked about moving towards walking away from the agreement, then again leading up to the sanctions. One prong of their attack was “economic”. They talked about how the removal of Iranian oil would sack the global economy, and how their contributions were needed to keep the markets, especially related to oil, stable. When that didn’t work, the nonsense about them militarily kicking our butt in the gulf. Their rhetoric right now is an attempt to get people to do things their way. The chances of conflict in the gulf could put pressure on the markets. They know how President Trump is big in keeping this economy humming. They’re also exerting pressure on the Europeans to salvage the deal that President Trump got us out of. Nope, recent drone video was debunked by some French video analysts. I’ll find the post. Hence… Read more »
“Hence my use of quotation marks…”
Heh. Subtle is not one of my stronger traits.
Who was it attacked the Saudi Aramco pumping station al-Duadmi earlier?
It was described as a drone attack. Was that Iran’s work? And if so, are they trying to stir things up to a higher level, or just poking the bear? Seems to me they’re stirring this up, and we’re just responding.
Huthi rebels in Yemen. Drone attacks by them are common. The Huthis fire missiles and send armed drones against Saudi targets quite often. I doubt their actions have us in mind.
Thanks for the update on that!
And one important point about the Huthis is that they are supported by the Iranians.
Actually, i think that if the Iranians do attack us, they will use a second party to make their actions.
Ditto!
Thanks to a pair of prior Jackasses, Iran has an overly-large self-view. Combined with the millenias-old Persian “we are the greatest” attitude, they may seriously miscalculate.
The US Navy can extinguish theirs, largely at anchor, in a noisy day. If we are really ruthless about it, we would first bait them out of port into deep water, and -then- sink them, maximizing their losses.
Trump is a well-demonstrated counter-puncher. He won’t seek a “proportionate response”. He will kick their ass so hard their grandchildren will faint if a US serviceman farts.
I think the Mad Mullahs are trying to save face long enough to get another jackass elected. -then- they will get frisky again.
Popcorn?
“I think the Mad Mullahs are trying to save face long enough to get another jackass elected. -then- they will get frisky again.”
Very likely, they ought to know by now that we no longer have a weak-spined pussy residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in DC and if they don’t realize it, well then…
Sabre rattling? Good! Let us draw our sabres and throw away the scabbards. As posted/discussed before that whole mess in the ME is a legacy of Jimmuh, or going further back, the failure of the Crusades, or Alexander the Great. Pick one or go for all of the above. They know that they cannot win a real war against the US, but they can stir up a lot of crap. Under the Trumpster, we now have enough oil for us and to export. But that has always been the case. It was only when the price become high enough that we could produce our oil that it happened. We took it upon ourselves to ensure the free flow of ME Oil for the world from 1973 on. Now we are so ensnared in that tar baby that we cannot get out. As I have watched my hard earned tax dollars and the precious blood of our Warriors get spent in that God Forsaken corner of the world, I have become more and more the isolationist. Those people will continue to kill one another for the next 1300 years, just as they have been killing one another for the last 13,000 years. Get us the eff out, and if the idiots keep showing their asses let the Aerial Artillery bring the dam dam down on them, Armmegedom here we come. Bet the average Iranian with any age on them is starting to think that the Shah wasn’t so bad after all.
For a scary, realistic worst case scenario of a major EMP strike on the US, check out William Forstchen trilogy starting with One Second After. I tell me loved ones that when the power goes out to always check their cell phone. If it’s dead too, the sh^t just got real bad.
“For a scary, realistic worst case scenario of a major EMP strike on the US, check out William Forstchen trilogy starting with One Second After. I tell me loved ones that when the power goes out to always check their cell phone. If it’s dead too, the sh^t just got real bad.”
I want to quote the whole thing for emphasis. You right, damn right.
I respect the above comments re disasters but that book changed my calculus on what would be the societal outcome.
That book… read it.
Exaggerated scenario.
A one-punch EMP Wipeout is not within the capability of any but a tiny group of nations, all sane.
Saturn 1B equivalent launcher, and fully fueled “Tzar Bomba” warhead.
Hype. To sell doomsday books.
I have a tin roof on my house so there’s that.
All three of them
Unfortunately, we can’t sit this one out. The radical Islamists have a manifest destiny, one that they’ve been executing since the beginning of the medieval period. That destiny is to bring the entire world together under the banner of Islam.
What happened with the Romans with regards to the Huns, and the Chinese with regards to the Mongols, shows what would happen if we just “let them fight each other there”. The Huns fought among each other before uniting and marching against the Romans. The Mongols fought among each other before they were united. Then they turned against China.
This could’ve been Al-Qaeda, and later ISIS, if we just “sat here” and did our own thing while “letting them kill each other” over there.
Many of their clerics are talking about the day world come when they would conquer America. Our going into isolation mode would make it easier for them to implement their manifest destiny.
I’ve read “One Second After” and “One Minute After”, I didn’t know that there was a third one.
Roger, Copy, and agree with all that thebesig. Not saying we, the country, needs to be isolationist, just speaking for me. and how I feel. What was old boy in the Aliens (?) Movie…nuke ’em from space? Our bombers and the carriers could put a serious hurting on their whole country without us getting into a slugging match on the ground. Bomb ’em into rubble, then make the rubble bounce. Just as Ol’ Nikita K said back yonder, we will bury you and never fire a shot. Folks have forgotten the images from 9/11 of people jumping from the towers. The members of the TAH family that have had multiple deployments in the different sandboxes, seeing their brothers and sisters shot to hell, for what? Now our congress is getting more and more “diverse” with known enemies in a position of power to destroy us from within, as predicted. Obama & Company was well on the way and if das hildabeast had of been elected, she’d of finished the job. As posted here many a time, so many people are only concerned about their own little world of job, home, phone, social media, ect, they are not paying attention to what we, here, realize what is going on. Congress Critters will destroy this country, just to hold on to power a little longer. They don’t realize that they will be the FIRST to be executed or sent to the re-education camps. The public school system has spent decades indoctrinating school kids to depend on the government to do for them. I’m not so concerned for myself, I don’t have that much time left. It is the future for my Grandchildren that concerns me. Twist…One Year After was #2, the #3 is The Final Day. It kinda wraps the other two up. Another Novella that WF wrote that could happen any day is called Dies Irae: Day of Wrath. Lot of folks laughed at Clancy when he wrote Debt of Honor with the Japanese pilot flying the wide body into the Capitol Building. The 9/11 group almost made that happen. The… Read more »
“On The Beach”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(1959_film)
Read the book before seeing the movie.
You Submariner types will like it.
Showing your age Bro. Next one up be Fail Safe?
Seven Days in May.
Awesome flick.
Or how about The Bedford Incident?
Great cold war movies!
Both books are good.
Any boat drivers out there that care to comment on the maneuver in the photo?
It appears that the ship is skidding or yawing into a turn to port while listing to starboard with the assistance of bow thrusters.
Being an air craft carrier, I wonder if the maneuver might have anything to do with leveling the deck for landing operations.
I believe that picture was taken during trials, pushing the whale to its limits.
I’ll get back to mopping the floor.
Not Navy, but I think they’re just testing the ship doing high speed turns. Looks like that photo was taken at the same time as part of this video.
Sea Trails- flank speed and put the helm hard over.
(Go like stink and turn really quickly)
Chambray shirts and dungarees? Where did those come from?
A time long ago, in a Navy far, far away..
So someone got to drive a multi-billion-dollar warship as if they were a drunken redneck maxing out the bass boat on 4 July?
Awesome. “I have the conn. Hold my coffee and watch this!”
And we had to make do with letting a raffle winner drive an APC over an abandoned car on our Regiment day. (Chaplain W, AKA Captain Crunch).
All three of them