Obama Camp in Panic; Trend Lines Matter

A confirmed trendline is not a fact and can obviously change or even reverse but it is a tool that is critical for campaigns to work effectively. Predictive analysis algorithms can be more important in national campaigns than any single factor including message and candidate.

Math in terms of demographics, media reach, focus groups and even message plays a significant role in every successful campaign.

People have asked me why a candidate spends so much money on pollsters when fairly accurate polls are released routinely for free. It’s a valid question if you only want to know what the polling numbers are. But what internal pollsters do is analyze trend lines based on certain demographics, locations etc.

Trend lines can affect message or posture of the campaign but their most important use is in allocation of resources. Opening several new offices in a state will have zero short term impact. These things take time and organization, so the sooner a definite trend is isolated, the sooner a campaign can flood resources to either exploit or defend a trending outcome.

Rick Moran makes a great sport analogy of what’s happening with the Obama campaign. If you aren’t familiar with the infamous Roy Riegles, you should read it all.

Ed Whelan at National Review notices the RCP Electoral College trend.

For the first time, the McCain-Palin ticket takes the lead over Obama-Biden in the RealClearPolitics Electoral College count, 227-217 (with 94 toss-up votes).

With a full 52 days to go, a 10 vote electoral lead is really nothing to get real excited about but it does make one look at the trend line.

One month ago, the count was Obama 238, McCain 163. So that’s an 85-vote swing.

The 85 vote swing in 30 days is very bad news for Obama but the worse news is in the toss-up state trend lines. When not attacking disabled veterans, I’m sure the Obama camp is well aware of what’s happening.

There are four big toss-ups.
Michigan (the fact that Michigan is even in play is a disaster for Obama) still has Obama +2 but 30 days ago it was Obama +4. (ADV McCain +2)
Pennsylvania has Obama +3 but 30 days ago it was Obama +6.2 (ADV McCain +3.2)
Ohio has McCain +2.2 but 30 days ago it was tied. (ADV McCain +2.2)
Virginia has McCain +2.6 and 30 days ago it was McCain +1.3 (ADV McCain +1.3)

If McCain holds Virginia and Ohio, as it appears he will; Obama will be forced to surge all resources into Michigan and Pennsylvania because loosing either would be fatal.

This will free McCain to launch the Palin express in the key western states where there are a lot of religious, gun-clingers. Specifically, McCain will target Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

Here’s what all this means, Obama can win Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada…and still lose. That scenario would give McCain Colorado and New Hampshire and with it the Presidency.

This will be a daunting task for the young senator to pull off.

Can you imagine the unhinged shenanigans, Republican attacks and overt voter fraud we’re going to see in Ohio and Pennsylvania?

If I were the McCain folks, I’d be watching the numbers of homeless people on buses between Pittsburgh and Colombus as well as between Pittsburgh and Cleveland. The homeless in Philly will all go to Trenton and Newark to secure New Jersey which is also slipping badly for Obama.

Category: Politics