Larry Sabato Sez…
In my previous job I worked monitoring the Congressional Elections, and I was pretty accurate at calling them. Back then though I was actually meeting with the candidates and getting briefings, reading local papers etc. Nowadays I don’t really have time to do that.
There are a few sources you can look at to see how the elections are shaping up. Today I wanted to share one, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Now, I used to be an acolyte of Sabato’s, until he injected himself into the Virginia Senate race a few years back. See, if you are objective, you aren’t actually supposed to be part of the story, only reporting it. None-the-less, while I no longer admire or respect him in that regard, his prognostications have proven to be among the most accurate year after year.
His current prognosis for 2012: GOP +7 Senate, +27 House, +7 Governors.
If I had to guess today I would put it more like GOP +5 Senate, +35 House, +7 Governors. I think some of the Senators may walk out okay, but I think the House is going to take a drubbing. Anyway, after the jump I am including the chart for the Senate as well. Pay special note to the New Mexico 3rd District, which you won’t find, because it is safe Democrat. Not that Adam has a chance of winning the primary anyway, but even if he did he would still get beat like a klansman at the Hop Hop Music Awards.
Category: Politics
RCP has a piece on this, using some interesting criteria for their analysis…comparing the point spread with the elections in 1994, Democrats in general are way behind the curve. Their wildly optimistic projections are detailing massive losses for the Dems in November. I, on the other hand, don’t have near as much faith in my fellow Americans as this Sean Trende guy. In any case, it was an interesting read: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/04/14/how_bad_could_2010_really_get_for_democrats_105152.html
Larry King would have been married 8 times, but Mary Todd Lincoln said no.