The Russians preparing to evacuate Crimea?

Earlier this year, the Ukrainian government signaled that it was getting ready to do a major offensive in the south. Ukrainian forces fired rounds into Kherson oblast and surrounding areas. The Russians bolstered their forces in this area at the expense of the other areas they held. They hunkered down for a fight.

However, the Ukrainians pushed a major counter offensive in the Kharkiv area, resulting in the collapse of the Russian defenses and massive retreat from east of Kharkiv. It took Ukraine days to accomplish what it took the Russians weeks, even months, to accomplish in certain areas.

Ukraine’s Eyes on Crimea

Now, the Ukrainian government is signaling a potential major move in the south. Is it working this time? A YouTube video, reportedly by a Russian soldier with Spetsnaz, raises the possibility of the beginning of an evacuation. In the video, the soldier talks about efforts to evacuate people from an area of Crimea within HIMARS striking range.

From YouTuber Suchonimus (as written):

I checked with my sources, Armyansk is actually being evacuated.

I’ll be there one of these days to see for myself.

There is no mass. Administrative and military facilities are being prepared for removal. Armyansk may be in the zone of action of the Hymars. Skadovsk is already in the affected area. Also near the plant “Titan”. Perhaps there are some reagents on the territory, the leakage of which can lead to casualties.

There are also a large number of military facilities in the Armyansk region. Most likely, what is passed off as evacuation is preparatory measures in case the front line shifts and the possibility of strikes according to the scenario of the Belgorod Region.

The administration itself does not confirm any evacuations.

Roman Saponkov

Surrender of each city jeopardizes the next one. And they will gouge the Titan. Because they are fighting. And destroy the enemy. The enemy for them is any Russian from zero to 100 years old. On the other hand, now there is a reason to regroup to Sevastopol itself, where, according to tradition, you can drown the fleet and sign the Treaty of Paris.

It could be a genuine firsthand report, or it could be disinformation to lure the Ukrainians into an area where the Russians could pull a few tricks of their own.

Here’s the video:

The Daily Beast reports that the officials in the Russian government are showing concern that the Ukrainians may attack Crimea. The Russian side is arguing that the Ukrainians do not have the military ability to do so while insisting that Crimea is Russian. The Ukrainians argue that taking Kherson is a key step to eventually recapturing Crimea.

From the Daily Beast:

In an apparent attempt to temper fears that Ukraine would go after Crimea, the chairman of the Federation Council’s committee on defense and security, Viktor Bondarev, warned Monday that he doesn’t think Ukraine has the firepower to take back Crimea.

“Ukraine has neither the resources, nor the military force, nor the support of the Crimeans for the promised offensive on the peninsula,” Bondarev said, adding, “‘Crimea is ours’ is not only a slogan and a hashtag. It is an unshakable reality.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration have been warning for months that Ukraine will work to take back Crimea from Russia. And now, with mounting losses for Russia’s army, the pressure is on. Russia just fled the strategically important city of Kherson in the south of Ukraine, a move which the top Ukrainian official in charge of Crimea told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview would be an important precursor to seizing back Crimea.

The Daily Beast has more information here.

Russia’s “Counter Counteroffensive” 

Prior to their loss in Kharkiv and Kerson areas, the Russian forces had the option to stay put and fight, or to retreat. They ultimately retreated and ceded large areas back to the Ukrainian forces. However, in the Bakhmut, Siversk, and Pavlivka and other areas, the Russians went on an offensive against the Ukrainian forces. The Russian’s “counter counteroffensive” turned into a protracted slugfest that is causing more KIA and WIA on the Russian side than on the Ukrainian side.

From Forbs:

But where the Ukrainian counteroffensives resulted in major breakthroughs for the Ukrainians–and galloping retreats by local Russian troops–the Russian countercounteroffensive is a brutal, bloody slog that appears to be killing more Russians than Ukrainians. Worse for the Russians, they’re not gaining significant ground.

Three weeks ago, the Russians attacked west of Donetsk, the capital of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic. Their aim: to wrest control of all of Donetsk Oblast from the Ukrainians. Russian and separatist regiments and mercenaries from The Wagner Group attacked the Ukrainian garrisons in Bakhmut, Siversk, Pavlivka and other settlements in western Donetsk.

It’s not going well for the Russians and their allies. “The Ukrainians are fighting a very, very successful mobile defense,” U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday.

The ongoing battle for Pavlivka, 25 miles southwest of Donetsk, is a tragic microcosm of Russia’s failing campaign. For three weeks, the Russian marine corps’ 155th and 40th Naval Infantry Brigades and other forces have been trying, and failing, to pry the Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade from Pavlivka, which before the war had a population of 2,500.

Forbs has additional details here and here.

Bodies burned in Kherson landfill?

As with other areas that the Ukrainians liberated from the Russians, evidence of “disturbing Russian activities” emerge. The Guardian reports that some Kherson residents claimed that the Russians had been dumping both “filled body bags” and garbage, into the Kherson landfill.

Sometime after the Russians took Kherson over, they prevented locals from going to the landfill. Trucks carrying both “filled body bags” and regular garbage arrived at the landfill to dispose of both garbage and filled body bags. Then the Russians set both body bags and trash on fire. Locals in the area reported the smell of burnt flesh.

From the Guardian:

As the Russian occupation of the region was on its last legs over the summer, the site, once a mundane place where residents disposed of their rubbish, became a no-go area, according to Kherson’s inhabitants, fiercely sealed off by the invading forces from presumed prying eyes.

The reason for the jittery secrecy, several residents and workers at the site told the Guardian, was that the occupying forces had a gruesome new purpose there: dumping the bodies of their fallen brethren, and then burning them.

The residents report seeing Russian open trucks arriving to the site carrying black bags that were then set on fire, filling the air with a large cloud of smoke and a terrifying stench of burning flesh.

They believe the Russians were disposing of the bodies of its soldiers killed during the heavy fighting of those summer days.

“Every time our army shelled the Russians there, they moved the remains to the landfill and burned them,” says Iryna, 40, a Kherson resident.

The Guardian has additional information.

Russia’s Depleted Missile Stockpiles

Meanwhile, there are reports that the Russians are showing signs that some of their missile stocks have been seriously depleted.

Four enemies of the russian missile arsenal:
brilliant Ukrainian air defense forces; inept russian missile forces; sanctions;
time.
Let’s demilitarize the terrorist state to live in peace! pic.twitter.com/ndttmXCc22

— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) November 22, 2022

And…

Russia using Luna-M missile developed the 1960s – “Freedom for Russia” legion which fights for Ukraine

Its accuracy is +- 700m from the target
? https://t.co/NWyrzOBv5O pic.twitter.com/Uu6VwSGMMy

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) November 22, 2022

According to Ukrainska Pravda, Russia’s missile potential has enough for 3 massive attacks. The Russians have been looking to import their missiles to help refurbish their stockpiles. The Ukrainians are adding to Russia’s missile stockpile challenges by knocking 70% of Russian missiles and Iran-made kamikaze drones from the sky.

From Ukrainska Pravda:

Source: UP article “The peace is under rocket fire. How Russia is trying to persuade Ukraine to negotiate”; defence minister Oleksii Reznikov on Twitter

Quote: “As senior sources in the power alliance confirm, as of mid-November, the Russian missile potential was still enough for a maximum of three massive attacks, similar to 15 November.”

Details: At the same time, the outlet notes that the Ukrainian air defence forces already manage to shoot down about 70% of missiles and Iranian-made kamikaze drones.

At the same time, Russia needs 14 to 16 months to restock its missile arsenal.

Now Russia is wasting the remaining strategic missile reserves, and it is unable to restore production of these projectiles quickly. “The Russian army is already forced to extract missiles from nuclear reserves, simply taking the nuclear warheads off,” reads the article.

Ukrainska Pravda has the rest of the story, tweets, and links to this story.

US Accelerating Weapons Acquisition 

However, Russia is not the only one moving to refill its depleted inventory. Washington D.C. is taking action to accelerate the process to replenish stockpiles that have been depleted due to weapons and rounds sent to Ukraine.

From Militarnyi:

The U.S. Army is accelerating its weapons acquisition process to speed through a backlog of contracts needed to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons depleted by arms shipments to Ukraine.

He shared with the reporters that the accelerated contracting effort hinges on running those processes simultaneously.

It is reported that the United States awarded approximately $1 billion in contracts to weapons producers since the second half of October. Those mostly cover ammunition and missiles.

In particular, the United States signed a $477 million contract with Lockheed Martin. Bush mentioned that this contracting pace is exceeding internal Pentagon spending speed benchmarks by 15%.

According to recent Pentagon contracting data, $2.6 billion worth of contracts were awarded to replace weapons shipped to Ukraine. Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Kyiv has received approximately $17.9 billion worth of arms from Washington.

Militarnyi has more information.

Finally, here is a graphic showing Ukrainian and Russian military actions in the Bakhmut area. There is a section, along the eastern front, where the Russians have tried for months to break through and expand their control further west. However, The Ukrainians have consistently pushed them back.

Category: Disposable Warriors, Russia, Ukraine