Fox News is predicting that the GOP will take the House

| July 15, 2022

Fox News power rankings estimate that the Republicans could gain anywhere from a seven-seat advantage to a 37-seat advantage. This is projecting the Republicans to have 225 to 255 seats when Congress begins their session next year. Even if Democrats win all 30 toss-up races, they would find themselves in the minority next year. These are just estimates, and a lot could change from now until November.

From Fox News:

With redistricting completed and the bulk of the primaries behind us, the Power Rankings model now reveals a clear advantage for the GOP in the House. With 218 seats required to take control, the GOP is forecast to take 225 seats to the Democrats’ 180 seats. Those figures include only the races in which one party has an advantage. The actual size of a GOP majority will depend on how many highly competitive “toss up” races each party wins, but the Republicans are expected to gain at least a seven-seat majority (225 seats) and as much as a 37-seat majority (255 seats) in their “best case” scenario.

The range of scenarios for the Democrats leaves the party with as much as a 38-seat deficit (180 seats), or just eight shy of a majority (210 seats). That is significant. In other words, even if Democrats win all 30 races currently marked as toss-ups, the party still does not have enough support to retain control of the House.

Eagle-eyed Power Rankings readers would know that these ratings are just estimates, and that even races assigned to a party (particularly those in the “Lean” columns) are still very competitive. Nonetheless, the current forecast looks very cloudy for congressional Democrats.

One factor above all else contributes to the gloomy outlook: President Joe Biden’s approval rating. A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday puts Biden’s approval rating at just 33%, and several high-quality polls now show Biden with a lower rating than former President Donald Trump had at the same time in his presidency. Just as Trump’s approval rating foreshadowed the Democrats’ solid victory in the House back then, so does Biden’s rating now.

Fox News has the article here.

Category: Politics

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jeff LPH 3 63-66

Keep the chi-com and varients going and a good possibility that the rhinos won’t take the house due to mail in ballots.

QMC

Yep. Just remember. Joe Biden got “81 million votes” in 2020. I think that’s something like 12 million more than Barack Obama.

Joe Biden is the most popular presidential nominee in American History. Yeah. Sure.

LC

I think it’s closer to 15M more than Obama. But you also have to realize that the number of eligible voters is up ~15M voters over that time, and that even Trump got ~12M more voters in 2020 than he did in 2016.

But sure, choose to believe that Biden stole votes. Somehow, despite being utterly incompetent and ineffective in damn near every way, he engineered a genius plan that has magically remained hidden to every inspection, audit and security measure in place. Amazing.

Deckie

Yawn….

QMC

Ballot stuffing doesn’t require a mastermind or a genius. As long as the election is tight enough, implement the right amount of drop boxes in swing states, kicking poll observers out for a few hours in major cities late in the night of the election, and ta-da! Here we are.

LC

Sure, but now you’re arguing two different things — yes, small-scale ballot stuffing in a few swing states is easier to hide than millions upon millions of votes nationwide (though I’ll point out that there’s still no evidence of this). So, what, just enough to swing the election in a few states – maybe 100K – 200K?

But then your initial point must be, “Biden got 81 million votes?! What a crock. It was more like 80.8 million, those other 200K were stuffed ballots!”.

So which is it? 15M more ballots than Obama is impossible, and fraudulent on a nation-wide scale, for which we have no evidence… or there was a few hundred thousand ballots stuffed in swing states, meaning, fine, he only got 14.8M more than Obama, and your incredulity is at the extra ~200K here?

QMC

Who said I was only talking about 200k votes? Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee are just the ones that got the media spotlight, and I believe the numbers on those alone in question total a lot more than 200k.

Even here in NC we’ve had questionable issues across party lines on elections. Mark Harris comes to mind for the GOP, and in 2016 Durham County “found” 90k votes “they missed” around midnight of the election. It wasn’t enough to tip the state to Hillary Clinton, but it did tip the scales in the Governor’s race.

20k difference here. 100k difference there.

Just a little bit all over the country, and yes, it most certainly can make up the difference of several million. I mean, do you really think there’s a legitimate 100-120% of turn out in polling precincts in Philly consistently every general election?

LC

So, again, and I’m honestly just trying to understand things here – are you saying the fraud happened in a few places (like Atlanta, Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee), or it happened nationwide?

If it was just a few places, that ain’t totaling up to the +15M votes Biden got over Obama. If it’s nationwide, you’re saying the Democrats rigged things nationwide, despite most states and counties having Republicans run the elections?

And I’d love to see where you’re getting 100-120% of turnout. Philly had 1.13M registered voters, and had 741K people actually vote in the 2020 election. That’s ~65.5% of the county. If you want links for any of those, let me know.

Prior Service.

LC, if you were a part of the, let’s call it The Democratic Machine (for lack of a better word) and you were intent on it, how would you have stolen the 2020 election? Purely hypothetically.

Not debating your facts or numbers, but your premise is that Biden isn’t smart enough to engineer theft of the election. That’s a red herring. What if it was actually stolen by low level parts the TDM working on their own initiative to add votes here and there to the tune of the couple hundred thousand necessary. Call me crazy but that’s how I’d do it. And I believe that’s how it was done. For the record, my daughter worked in a precinct with zero, ZERO, accountability of votes. I’m pretty sure that’s fairly common.

LC

Sure, hey, I think the notion of low-level people changing things in a few places is considerably more plausible than a nationwide effort, including in deep-red counties. Except, that doesn’t get you to the ~15M extra votes Biden got over Obama.

So, as I said above, it’s a question of conflating two things — one, the disbelief that Biden that got many votes, and two, that there was some small-scale efforts to flip things in key counties, held by Democrats, just enough to tip the scales.

Again, the former isn’t plausible. And the latter doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. Take Philly, as above — in 2020, Biden got 603.8K votes, and Trump got 132.8K. In 2016, Clinton got 584.0K, and Trump got 108.8K. We’re not seeing millions of extra votes here. The increase was only 3.4% for Biden over Clinton, vs 22% for Trump. Are we saying the Democrats rigged Philly… by giving Trump a much better showing than he had in the previous election?

QMC

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/04/20/philly-election-officials-take-up-gop-complaints/

The insane turnout (+100%) in Philly has been going on for years and is just one example that you can find for major cities all over the country. Adding in massive mail in ballots and drop boxes during a pandemic just exacerbated a problem that’s been around for a while.

Yes, it easily can make a problem that may have only been a few thousand and turned it into a difference of several million.

LC

As for general election security and fraud, it surely happens, yes. And we should absolutely fight against it.

But the narrative that Biden’s 81M votes is absurdly high is in conflict with the notion that a few operatives in swing counties managed to eek out a win. And claims of >100% turnout appeal to people because it’s so outrageous, but the math never backs it up. That’s all.

poetrooper

“…the narrative that Biden’s 81M votes is absurdly high…”

What makes the figure absurdly high is the no-show campaign he conducted and the reality that on the few occasions his handlers did let him venture out in public to mumble his message, his 81M voters only managed to turn out in the low hundreds at most, in poor contrast with his opponent’s wildly cheering crowds numbering in the tens of thousands.

So, according to you, LC, we’re supposed to disregard our common sense, deny our lying eyes and just accept your cherry-picked arguments just because you’re so fair and balanced, hmm? 🙄 

Last edited 2 years ago by Poetrooper
poetrooper

“But sure, choose to believe that Biden stole votes. Somehow, despite being utterly incompetent and ineffective in damn near every way, he engineered a genius plan that has magically remained hidden to every inspection, audit and security measure in place. Amazing.”

C’mon, LC…that’s another truly lame argument, a real red herring. No one is saying that the fraud was personally devised and conducted by Joe Biden or even his closest aides. But there are plenty of tech-savvy folks in the ranks of his party who do have the requisite skills and some of them most assuredly did put the fix in.

If you’re having to resort to that kind of misdirection for purposes of argument, you clearly don’t have much going for you. 🙄 

Carlton

Fuck off, Lars.

Anonymous

That seems to be the BA5 plan.

George V

Never underestimate the ability of the Republican party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

KoB

It’s cute how they think that the vote will go the way that We, The People, want it to go. LBJ grins and says, “Hold my Dominion Machine and watch this.”

Roh-Dog

Great minds… I went crass and I’m ok with the choices made.

Roh-Dog

Well, if both parties keep up their pro-illegal war, pro-illegal alien, anti-gun, anti-family, anti-medical choice, anti-oil, anti-energy, anti-car, anti-food, anti-vote accountability, anti-constitutional ways, and pro-treaty without requisite vote, pro-UN/NATO/IMF/WEF/WHO/etc, pro-spending on big businesses, pro-big bank, pro-FED, pro-Public Sector Union shit….

In full display of God and country, I’ll drop my fucking pants in the middle of that polling place, ballot in hand, wipe my ass with that mother fucker and run that sumbitch thru that Chinese-made, Canadian-operated Dominion vote-losing machine, all whist whistling Battle Hymn of the Republic/Blood Upon the Risers.

5JC

Trump was none of those things. He was the first anti-war president since Carter. You might argue that a smallish percentage of Republicans are those things but it is nowhere near the majority or written in the platform like the other party.

Graybeard

No reasonable person who has been paying attention doubts that PINO Joe won by illegitimate means.
There are too many places where (D)emon-rats have been caught tampering with the election. There are too many unexplained and unexpected improprieties (2a.m. votes anyone?) and outright violations of law.

Of course, my first sentence excludes folks like Lars et al who are still drinking the coolaid.

Take the red pill, folks, and see the truth.

ChipNASA

The only way the Republicans are gonna win in November is anywhere from 24 hours to 24 days afterwards when all the major networks and the White House and the press secretary and Nancy Pelosi and all the major electronic and print media declare that almost all the governors races are one by new Republicans the house and the senate both turnover after a massive Republican victory and it looks really terrible for 2024 for whoever gets nominated for the Democratic Party that’s the only way I will believe the Republicans actually win in four months