New Hampshire Poll

| January 28, 2020

Sanders/Biden

I don’t put a lot of credence on political polls- the 2016 election is a prime example of skewed data and wishful thinking- but they can sort of show trends over time. Depends a lot on the agenda of those polling, and how the questions are phrased. Anyone who has taken a statistics class or two can ask you what you want to “prove” and make it look solid, ’cause numbers don’t lie. Statisticians do, however. Anyway, came across this gem today:

Poll: Bernie Sanders Overtakes Joe Biden for First Place in New Hampshire

By: JOSHUA CAPLAN

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has surged past former Vice President Joe Biden to take first place in the key primary state of New Hampshire, according to a poll released Monday.

An NBC10 Boston/Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald survey found Sanders has 29 percent support in New Hampshire, a jump of seven points in the same poll conducted earlier this month. Biden placed second with 22 percent, a drop of four points since the previous survey. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) finished third place at 16 percent, while former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg placed fourth with ten percent. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MM) came in fifth place with five percent.

The poll, between January 23 and 26, surveyed 407 “likely” Democrat primary voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. It was conducted via telephone by RKM Research and Communications, NBC10 Boston, NECN, Telemundo Boston, Franklin Pierce University, and the Boston Herald.

The poll’s release comes after a CNN survey published Sunday also showed Sanders had gained support in the Granite State.

“Overall, 25% of likely Democratic primary voters back the Vermont senator, with former Vice President Joe Biden (16%), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (15%) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (12%) battling for second place. Behind these four, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (6%), Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (5%) and businessman Andrew Yang (5%) make up a third tier of candidates,” CNN reported.

New Hampshire primary voters will head to the polls on February 11.

Bernie’s lead seems consistent over several polls and I’m sure has been giving the Dems fits. They managed to screw him out of the last Dem Primary to give the nomination to The One, who crashed and burned in a spectacular fashion. They wish to avoid a repeat by any means, and they know Bernie is unelectable. Be interesting to see what they plan to do about it this time. Stay tuned!
The rest of the article may be viewed here: Breitbart

Category: 2020 Election, Politics

Comments (31)

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  1. Skippy says:

    I just sent EX-PH a real-time poll on the DNC front runners it’s close I wish I could post it
    But I don’t have a flicker account anymore

  2. The Other Whitey says:

    Remember that despite the name they use, the democrats don’t actually like the democratic process. Their oligarchs will choose their candidate, as before, and the primary voters can suck it. Makes you wonder why anyone would actually support such a party, unless they’re a barely-functional idiot with delusions of genius (like some people we know).

    • Commissar says:

      Getting as many people to vote as possible strongly favors democratic candidates.

      DNC does not favor democracy but democrats do.

      • The Other Whitey says:

        Sure, Lars.

        Democrat candidates are so popular that their supporters will vote five or six times in a given election (see Detroit in 2016 for an easy example). They’re so popular that pro-dem ballot fraud has been found (and quickly swept under the rug) in the supposedly deep-blue stronghold of LA!

      • SFC D says:

        Democrat candidates are so popular that boxes of ballots are known to turn up long after the election. Some sort of electoral “loaves and fishes” miracle.

        • The Other Whitey says:

          They’re so popular they have to pay people to show up to their rallies and carefully select camera angles to hide rows of empty seats.

  3. Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

    Bernie the disruptor stands an excellent chance of winning the primaries this time around as the Democrats have changed their rules some to avoid the obvious appearance of cheating they had in 2016.

    Bernie is to Democrats what Trump was to the Republicans, an outsider to the party using the party organization to advance a disruptive campaign.

    The Democrats super delegates in 2016 and the DNC DWS cheating kept Bernie from becoming the nominee. The current media blackout by CNN and a few others who show Bernie with Biden and Buttigieg and Warren and talk about the “top three” while never mentioning Bernie speaks volumes to the DNC and corporate influence in the media.

    Should Bernie win the nomination for the Democrats I do not think a Trump re-election is as much of a slam-dunk as people imagine it to be. I think if it’s Trump vs Sanders you can flip a coin for odds as to the winner. American youth are not at all afraid of socialists, nor are they feeling hopeful the Trumps of the world can provide their shot at the American dream. Should Bernie be the candidate those who stayed home in 2016 will be voting, large turnouts don’t favor the Republicans in those battleground states because the independents in those states are becoming younger voters who are not going to be Trump fans.

    Trump vs anyone but Bernie and I think he wins, but Trump vs Sanders will be an interesting campaign on a number of levels and one whose outcome is hardly guaranteed.

    • Fyrfighter says:

      Sadly, I think you’re right, and it perfectly illustrates that the conversion of our schools from education to indoctrination is complete!

      These younger voters you speak of have been lied to from the beginning about the evils of socialism..

    • Poetrooper says:

      VOV, don’t you think the flip side of that huge youth turnout will be a commensurate turn away by the large number of centrists who are barely clinging to their lifelong belief in themselves as Democrats as they watch their party turn towards socialism? Bernie Sanders as the party’s nominee could well be what finally convinces them that their party has left them, the proverbial “Straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

      As a candidate, Bernie’s life of little accomplishment other than being an opportunistic career politician, compares very poorly to Trump’s. And as Hillary has helpfully pointed out, there is a very good reason the DNC does not want Sanders as their nominee–he’s unlikable and they don’t think he can win.

      I believe they think Bernie could very well be another Mondale.

      • Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

        Poe, no I don’t believe they will turn away. The Bernie people are not at all going to “vote blue no matter who” because they don’t subscribe to that mindset.

        All of the centrists and slightly left of center people are definitely blue no matter who types and those votes will remain.

        If you look at the data from the elections it seems to me that had Bernie been the candidate Trump might well have remained a private citizen.

        It’s my thought that the reason the centrists in the DNC, and make no mistake most Democrats are centrists, are beholden to their large corporate donors who definitely don’t want a Bernie presidency. Those corporate donors will gladly help Trump beat Bernie if they can. I maintain that Bernie as a candidate whether you love him or hate him doesn’t need the corporate donors in the same way that the centrists do, largely because Bernie has touched a nerve in those youth voters who are quite happy sending him ten or twenty dollars here or there….Sanders had more than a million small donors in the second quarter of 2019 alone. The bulk of his money has come from those donating less than $200.

        I think underestimating his ability to win is a huge mistake, and I think the DNC understands he could win and they don’t want that.

        I also believe Pelosi is still hoping for the chance to purge the progressives after November 2020 which she can’t do with a Bernie win. If Bernie wins Pelosi, Perez at the DNC, and a host of other centrists of long standing are in serious trouble with their leadership positions.

        We’ll see how it all plays out, but an early Bernie lead could become a snowball into the nomination in my opinion rather quickly.

        • Poetrooper says:

          A leading liberal pundit, Johnathan Chait, doesn’t think much of Bernie’s chances:

          “That said, the totality of the evidence suggests Sanders is an extremely, perhaps uniquely, risky nominee. His vulnerabilities are enormous and untested. No party nomination, with the possible exception of Barry Goldwater in 1964, has put forth a presidential nominee with the level of downside risk exposure as a Sanders-led ticket would bring. To nominate Sanders would be insane.”

          http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/bernie-sanders-electable-trump-2020-nomination-popular-socialism.html

          • Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

            If we had a laugh button my friend I would use it now, Jonathan Chait? Really?

            The guy who wrote an article explaining why liberals should support a Trump presidency would no doubt find a Bernie presidency rather uncomfortable.

            My observations do not carry the weight of such journalists as Mr. Chait they are simply based on math and data offered up by the Democrats themselves.

            Bernie is of course a risk for Democrats because he’s no more a Democrat than Trump is a Republican. If you watch closely the dyed in the wool Democrats are saying the exact same things about Bernie the never Trumper Republicans said about Trump…and yet during the primary season Trump started blowing people out of the race with his popularity amongst average people.

            Bernie is doing with young Democrats and independents what Trump did with middle class midwesterners in 2016…speaking to what concerns them.

            Should Bernie win he won’t play ball with the Democrats traditional corporate masters, you will continue to see the media, Mr. Chait and a host of others, ignore or disparage Bernie thinking they can get voters to toss him aside. They may yet be right, but as with Trump I would not at all be surprised to see Bernie win a few of these early primaries and start to build some steam. Should that happen the race becomes much different than the likes of those who write for the New York Magazine imagine. For the record that same magazine knew for a fact that Trump would lose in a landslide.

            Understand my fascination with Bernie is the process and not the politics of the man…now that Democrats have tried to minimize the influence of super delegates they may have unwittingly opened the door to a Bernie candidacy. That’s the part I find most interesting.

  4. A Proud Infidel®™ says:

    Polls, you mean like the ones that gloatingly predicted Das Hildebeast of Cankles winning by a landslide in 2016? Let’s not forget that Bernie has spent decades in Office in DC and is part of the problem and I’m sure that President Trump will successfully use that against him.

  5. 5th/77th FA says:

    Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Who is fronting Bernie? Where’s the money coming from? He was screwed by the dims in ’16, what makes him think that they won’t screw him again? I kinda agree with VOV in that there are enough younger voters out there that have been indoctrinated to accept Bernie’s Socialistic ideas that would make it a kinda tight race. Hopefully Team Trump Train would emphasize the facts that The Bern has been there for 40+ years, is a major part of the problems in the District of Criminals, and make these kids ask…”Where is the money for all of this free sh^t coming from?” Is the Oblowme supporters pulling all of the strings for the dims now? You know how Barry and Michael hate Hitlery. It is amazing to me that out of all of the people in this country, the ones they have running do not have snowballs chance in hell of actually winning. All of this does tie into what we have discussed before. The voting strength of the true Americans is heavily diluted by the enclaves of big cities filled with members of the FSA that will be the useful idiots needed to finish the destruction of our Republic.

    • AW1Ed says:

      The real problem with the FSA is they pay no taxes, or get paid through tax subsidies. They don’t know or care where the free shit comes from, as long as the gravy train keeps flowing. when that stops the bovine scatology will impact the rotating air foil.

      “The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.”
      Margaret Hilda Thatcher, Baroness, LG, OM, DStJ, PC, FRS, HonFRSC, British stateswoman and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. AKA “The Iron Lady”

    • Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

      The centrist Democrats would rather lose with Biden than concede to the progressive left of their party and win with Bernie.

      This is why I felt the AOC comment on the Democrat party as a whole moving to the center was an accurate comment with respect to the current political climate.

      Pelosi is not a liberal, Biden is not a liberal, Warren talks like a liberal but hardly acts like one. Buttigieg is not a liberal.

      They have been painted as liberals as a simplistic attack element, but their actions and the actions of the previous administration are hardly those of the liberal wing of the party.

      Bernie is a liberal/socialist in every sense of the word. AOC is also that liberal/socialist element of the party. They are true believers. The bulk of the Democrat party are not at all true believers, nor are they liberals.

      • AW1Ed says:

        VOV, the Obama-ites are fit to be tied over Bernie and don’t know what to do about it. I’ll agree to disagree with your dire predictions- if the Bern actually wins the Dem Primary, Blue Collar Dems and the Independents will stay away from the polls in droves, if not vote outright for Trump. Or some will perhaps throw their votes away on whichever environ-idiot the Greens put up. Same thing, really. This article from the Daily Beast (should make wingy68 happy) is pretty interesting.

        the bern

        Obamaworld Hates Bernie—and Has No Idea How to Stop Him
        The most striking response to an ascendant Sanders is the lack of one.
        Hanna Trudo

        Former President Barack Obama’s top lieutenants are eager to poke every conceivable hole in Bernie Sanders’ resurgent bid for the Democratic nomination. But ask about a coordinated effort to stop his ascending campaign and you’ll get crickets.

        Less than a month before voting begins, Obama has declined to offer a preferred pick to take on President Trump in 2020, only occasionally waxing philosophical about the perils of moving too far left and reminding voters to be “rooted in reality” when exploring nominee options. But as Sanders gained new flashes of traction in recent weeks, the former president’s lack of official guidance to halt his momentum, and the scattering of his inner circle to rival campaigns, have hampered any meaningful NeverBernie movement.

        Indeed, the most striking aspect of Obamaworld’s response to Sanders on the rise—flush with cash, an uptick in the polls, and unusually frequent hat tips about the merits of his character from his rivals—is the lack of a cohesive one.

        Seasoned Obama operatives who spoke to The Daily Beast concede that Sanders is likely to be a major player through the end of the primary, with several agreeing there’s little to no consolidation around one anointed candidate to blunt his momentum. In fact, while pointing to his massive cash hauls and loyal base of supporters, the thinking among Democrats close to the former president is that they are hoping the Vermont Independent flames out on his own.

        Hope is not a strategy- the Dems are furiously working back channels and Big Dollar contributors, looking to blunt the Bern.
        Read the rest of the article here: The Daily Beast Holding your nose helps.

  6. JimmyB says:

    I think we tend to lump a lot of the young into the “going all socialist group” but from what I’ve seen and heard from my kids is that they are seeing through Bernie as the con artist he is. A good debate would clear up a lot of things for the undecided. Does anyone remember how Reagan mopped the floor with Jimmy Carter? I sure do, even my family who were southern democrats were shaking their heads and saying they couldn’t vote for Carter.

  7. 11B-Mailclerk says:

    The folks running the Democrat party, financing it, benefiting from it, all have money. -big- money. They cannot allow a communist loon like Bernie! and his disciples to actually win power, or they are well and truly shorn and Gulaged.

    They will rig and cheat, again, to keep him out. If that doesn’t work, they will “arkancide” him, or find his stash of souvenir photos from something like Epstein’s Island.

    They would rather face the wrath of angry Bernouts and four more years of Trump than see that Commie lunatic and his Red Guard hang-arounds actually in power.

  8. Commissar says:

    The 2016 election results were consistent with the polling data and their margin of error.

    The RCP Avery for all the major polls was that Hillary had a 75-85% chance of whining the election and she would win the popular vote by 3.3% with a 2.9% margin or error.

    She won the popular vote by 2.1% which was within the margin of error.

    The fact that she lost does not make the polls “wrong”.

    Again she had between 75-85% chance to win. If you roll the dice and say “I bet I roll a ‘one’”, and someone says “I bet you don’t”… the fact that you roll a 1 does not make the person “wrong”. They picked the statistically most likely outcome. You got “lucky”.

    • Fyrfighter says:

      Hey look, seagull stopped working Bernies saggy old balls long enough to stop by and “educate” us…

    • Commissioner Wretched says:

      Hey, Lars-for-Brains … there is no popular vote for president.
      There are 51 separate votes to choose electors.
      That’s it.
      Hillary didn’t win the only election that counted … the Electoral College.
      The polls had her clobbering Trump up one side and down the other, right?
      Who’s sitting in the Oval Office, eh?

    • SFC D says:

      “ The RCP Avery for all the major polls was that Hillary had a 75-85% chance of whining the election and she would win the popular vote by 3.3% with a 2.9% margin or error.”

      And today, over 3 years after the fact, she’s still “whining the election.”

    • David says:

      I will bet any amount of money you can match that you can’t throw a one with dice. Try me.

  9. Poetrooper says:

    “The RCP Avery for all the major polls was that Hillary had a 75-85% chance of whining the election and she would win the popular vote by 3.3% with a 2.9% margin or error.”

    It takes a typo to do it, but for once I agree with you, Lars–Hillary “whined” the election alright but I think her percentage of doing so is more more like 100%.

    Heh…

  10. timactual says:

    Presidential primary season is the time I miss New Hampshire the most. It’s like the circus is in town (especially Manchester) every day. People get their phones turned off until after Nov. to avoid all the calls.

    You want a fun vacation? Take a week or two in Manchester just before primary day.

    PS: Bring your own popcorn; the locals have stocked up on it and are staying home watching Netflix or Amazon Prime.