Hurricane Florence Advisory
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WTNT31 KNHC 111446
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018
…FLORENCE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN LATER TODAY…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.7N 65.3W
ABOUT 390 MI…625 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 905 MI…1455 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence. Additional watches may be
required later today.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 65.3 West. Florence
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through
Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South
Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-
strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend
for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on
Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…
Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet…2-4 ft
Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear…4-6 ft
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico
River…6-12 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…5-8 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30
inches near the storm’s track over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This
rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Thursday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Category: Blue Skies
Thanks for the update, AW1Ed.
Glad I don’t live in a coastal area.
Thanks. This is a monster storm; mandatory evacuations are in effect.
CNBC Link
Take the hint- leave! Things can be rebuilt or replaced. People can’t.
Mandatory GTFO!
No offense, but the government has no right to force you off your land and out of your home in situations like this.
The fact that governments call them “mandatory evacuations” is another case of 1) the government lying or changing the meaning of words and 2) the government telling people what is best for them. Neither is ideal nor my idea of freedom.
There are always going to be people who stay through a hurricane. Sometimes that’s the right choice and sometimes that’s the wrong choice. No matter what, it is a choice the individual must make rather than the government.
As someone who lives on a barrier island on the east coast of Florida and is 1/2 mile away from the dunes of the beach, it is my decision to stay or leave.
Furthermore, it is not just leaving that is the issue. It is getting back home. Once you are out, the police will restrict your access to your home once the storm has passed. That’s not right either.
Last year when Irma waddled about the state, some of the most comforting and best work was done by those who stayed and once Irma had passed, began to drive the roads inspecting damage and live streaming the video. Several groups would take requests on social media and the trucks would head to the address and take video for the homeowner of their home.
Hurricanes are stressful to say the least. The uncertainty of a path, leaving, not leaving, constant “news” with nothing new to say and being kept out of your home makes things worse, not knowing if your home is fine, needs a “blue roof” or is in pieces makes things harder, not better.
As for people in the path of Flo, churches and other groups down here are already gearing up to send supplies north. So hunker down where you feel safe, and we’ll see you on the flip side. Our prayers are with you.
Still a free country, gitarcarver, so do what you want.
Personally, I think anyone who lives in a coastal community and decides to “ride out” a Cat 3 or above hurricane when they can evacuate is a fool, if not a damn fool.
Here’s why:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/gallery.html
As AW1Ed observed: property can be replaced. People can’t. Riding out a major hurricane on the coast is literally risking your life.
Spot on Hondo
Hondo,
I don’t necessarily disagree that riding a Cat 3 hurricane out is ridiculous. We get “mandatory evacs” for Cat 1’s here.
As for Camille, building codes have changed greatly in 50 years. For example, if you need to replace a front door here in the Sunshine state, you have to have a permit and installed by a licensed professional to make sure the screws are of the right length, right materials, and actually go into something. Replacing a roof is different as well. (Some counties have outlaws nail guns because the gun can’t “feel” if the nails are going through and hitting wood. There are different standards today that make buildings safer.
On barrier islands here, they close the causeway bridges when winds are sustained tropical force.
And frankly, people who stay have hurricane parties and get drunk which is a really dumb thing to do.
My comment was aimed at the one above me of Mandatory GTFO!
There is no such thing and there shouldn’t be.
Even a Cat 2 can produce huge storm surges under the right conditions, GT. Just ask the residents of Galveston about Hurricane Ike (only Cat 2 at landfall, but was physically large and produced a 15-20 foot storm surge). Depth of storm surge depends on the offshore ocean floor profile, the physical size of the storm, coastal configuration, and the angle of incidence of the storm center with respect to the shore (plus a few other things). It’s only loosely connected to the storm’s intensity.
Last time I checked, most barrier islands don’t have much high ground. And I can’t tread water for several hours.
My inclination when mandatory evac was declared would be to lock up the place, install the hurricane guards/shutters on the windows/doors, pack up the pets (if any), and leave. YMMV, and apparently does.
Hondo, as someone who lived on the Northwest Florida Gulf Coast for many years, I can tell you that a huge part of the problem is the media and the way they sensationalize every aspect of such natural events. People who evacuate in bumper to bumper interstate traffic only to return to their homes and find that the supposed “killer storm” did little more than blow off some shingles, factor the reality that they were previously misinformed and completely stressed out by the media, into their subsequent decision making.
I have personally been in that situation, having evacuated from our home out west of Pensacola to Montgomery, Alabama, and then driving back, listening all the way to media reports of devastation that proved to be pure media hype.
On the other hand, partially because of my distrust of phony media predictions, I chose to ride out a hurricane when I perhaps shouldn’t have. We came through it okay but it scared the living shit out of us, sitting there in that house a hundred yards from the water, as that big mother blew threw our little coastal subdivision.
We evacuated the next time. Good thing because it was a truly bad storm, Frederic, that caused huge damage in our area, substantial damage to our home as well as sinking our sailboat.
But I think you can see my point. All the media over-hype can create a sense of complacency and disregard that can damned well get people killed when they quit trusting media reports that actually prove to be true.
PT: I grew up not too terribly far from the Gulf Coast. I’m fairly aware of both the destructive power of a hurricane and how the media sensationalizes them these days.
I also heard firsthand accounts of Camille’s devastation from people who drove relief supplies to the are afterwards (I was too young to be involved except to help collect the stuff). The storm was physically quite small – but was a freaking Cat 5. Seriously bad juju for areas near the storm center’s path. (Katrina wasn’t as intense at landfall, but was a much larger storm and devastated a much larger area).
No one is going door-to-door forcing people to leave their homes. The actual reason is after a certain time, emergency services will be halted. If you stay, you’re on your own for the duration.
Remember Katrina?
Actually, a town south of me did just that. They were arresting people who failed to evacuate under the premise of “failing to follow a legal order from a police officer.”
Of course the order wasn’t legal, but that didn’t stop the police (under orders from the town) for trying.
(Now what happens on the islands here is that police will take your name so if something happens, they can notify the next of kin. You don’t have to tell them, but they do try and get your name.)
And you are correct that emergency services stop as well they should. A choice of a person to stay does not mean another person should put their lives in jeopardy.
GC, you are correct that they cannot force you out, and that they are misusing words. What they can, and SHOULD say is “if you don’t leave now, we will NOT come rescue you until the storm has passed, you are on your own, and will live or die by your own works and the grace of God”… That would be much more accurate, and within their powers. The thing is, someones family would loose their shit over a lost loved one, and sue because “no-one told us to get out”..
950 MB. Not really all that low. Yet.
The surge and rain through all those bays and inlets though is going to be epic.
Saw a huge flock of Geese heading south yesterday. Chasing that cold front.
Probably holed up somewhere after seeing the Seagulls heading inland.
I saw the same thing last Thursday morning, well-organized and flying high enough to show that they were migrating way ahead of the hunting season. I figured that since there is a report that Arctic ice is growing instead of shrinking, they were leaving their home turf early ahead of the winter cold.
Thanks for that observation Ex.
People around here have been vocal about how strange this summer has been.
No bugs. Hot and dry. The critters ain’t right.
Every year is different and I don’t cotton to global warming but this year is noticably odd. Mother nature always makes up on one end what she does on the other with an eye towards balance.
Watch out.
Our summer (upper Midwest) didn’t really start until late June, and ended on July 31st when it was 56F at 6AM.
My guess is that Hudson’s Bay’s ice cover didn’t melt out until mid-July and then started recovering ice cover quickly.
I’m just keeping an eye on things, but you’re right – bug population has been low, except for dragonflies. I have seen a few butterflies this summer, but not nearly enough.
I’ve been tracking migration patterns as well, and have seen a trend towards early migrations south. They probably met the geese that hang out in my area.
Another new tool in the bag is the ability to track changes in vegetation color throughout the year, not just during the fall.
Ever since I’ve trained myself to spot the sun’s green light, that color dominates. I’ve seen more shades of green in the flora, been able to see forests more in depth, and more in 3D than before.
As spring transitions into summer, the color variation in the green increases until late summer. The changes that lead to the fall coloring start in August. I’ve been seeing that change start earlier in the summer.
I’ve also seen bushes maintain their reddish color longer. Based on what I’ve seen, the reddish coloring disappears during the summer, then comes back during the fall.
As for the approach of Hurricanes, I’ve noticed that the flies and mosquitos become more scarce the closer the hurricane gets.
Yes. Starting in mid-August, I noted yellow leaves on the apple tree next door, which are being blown off every time there is a rain or even a mild wind. The tree outside my west window has also been showing early signs.
Some of it may be attributed to an inactive sun, which is in a solar minimum and has been for several months now. I think this is Solar Cycle 24, and #25 may be coming up very soon. Whether it turns out to be a Maunder Minimum is being discussed, but I think that is premature.
I think those geese I saw may have been heading toward the Mississippi flyway. That was the general direction they were taking.
We’re just a stone’s throw from a small lake with a much larger one about a half mile away and the geese have been coming in here (Arkansas) in the evenings for a couple of weeks now, the earliest I’ve ever seen or heard them.
As a guy who has gone through a number of those, I sure hope folks listen to the advice and get to high ground well inland.
Leave early. Getting caught in a last-minute evacuation is dangerous in many different ways.
Praying for everyone’s safety.
Florence is blowing pretty good.
She’s a wet one too.
Home-wrecker.
I have a question for you subhunters, how much noise do these things make?
Enough for a 30 year old Delta to hide?
It’s not the noise- sonobuoys aren’t designed for that kind of sea state- it’s called wash-over, which kills the RF link, and the violent vertical wave motion would rapidly separate the buoys into their component parts, killing it. That is, if someone was foolish enough to fly there in the first place. That’s for NOAA P-3s and the Air Force’s 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, flying WC130Js.
So hypothetically, knowing the wind and wave action frequency band and a Delta’s signature characteristics, like most things ASW, it depends.
Edited to add,
That was very aviation-centric of me. Ships would be nowhere near the area, so the only platform for ASW in your scenario is another submarine.
Fort Bragg will be P.T at 0600.
Jump is a go!
Winds 3-5 knots on drop zone.
I used to think that those who sought to profit from impending storms were scum. Not anymore. Now, I envy some of the profiteers. Which ones? The ones who operate in coastal areas where hurricanes usually hit. Hell, it’s not as if these things strike once in a blue moon or during, say, February. Hurricane season is June through November each year and if you live on the coast, or in the Keys, and you don’t have plywood, batteries, extra gas cans, a propane stove, lighters, cash on hand, a throw-away phone, a radio, candles, and a plan, you deserve whatever comes your way, including paying 10 times as much or more for these things when, two days out from a storm hitting, you say, “Oh shit. I’m not ready.” It’s supply and demand. I’m only sorry the gov’t got involved and made it more difficult for entrepreneurs to make a buck.
This ^^^
I live in the most populated city in Virginia, the governor has ordered mandatory evacuation for the most at risk flooding risk in my city as well as in other areas in the state. Our Mayor may have already passed a local order for evacuations along the southern part of the beach front.
I’m not in that zone.
We have our hurricane supplies, been through many hurricanes. Been through typhoons while living in another part of the world.
Every time we have a hurricane or nor’easter approach, prices in my area goes up for emergency related items. Supply and demand.
I’ve been telling folk to get their winter stuff during the summer.
Hope you NC/SC residents stay safe and dry.
As a small boy I watched my Aunt have near hysterical fits of fear, as Hurricane Hazel approached Vance County, NC. Odd thing though, she wore herself out so much with it all, she went to bed and slept through the worst of it. It was far less that far inland than on the coast but still the worst up until that time.
P.S. Thanks AW1Ed! Very much.
My pleasure, Sparks. Want to give any TAH’ers in the threatened areas plenty of warning.
Whiskey!
For medicinal purposes only, of course. Store next to that other necessity, cigars.
Whiskey can be used as an ingredient in creating a fine BBQ sauce for pork or beef ribs.
And beer for your horses…
I was wrong about the very large uncircumcised penis and the giant amoeba. Turns out it’s the biggest f’n zucchini the world has ever seen. I should have known. So, get butter, garlic, and shallots, whatever the hell they are.
“Melt the butter or heat the oil in a large frying pan over medium-high heat. Add the garlic or shallot and cook, stirring, until they are fragrant, about 30 seconds. Add the zucchini and stir to combine everything. Sprinkle with the salt and stir again.”
Shallots are like a cross between onion and garlic. Mild and savory; use ’em in place of, or with, either.
To finish your zukes, sprinkle a bread crumb/parm cheese mix on top, and throw the skillet under the broiler for a couple minutes, until nicely browned.
The recipe I lifted. I cook eggs, usually sunny side up. I cook bacon. Crispy. By adding milk, I make cereal, from a box. That’s about it, unless toast counts, for the kitchen. Outside, I use the charcoal grill year round, regardless of weather. I cook beef, Angus beef, T-bones, chicken breasts, chicken legs, chicken wings and Johnsville pork sausages. I eat a lot of potato bread. There. Now you know my life story.
I don’t like my bacon crisp, a fact that has caused me no end of grief when traveling, as I did heavily for the better part of twenty-plus years. Think about it: there’s no descriptive word in the English language for “not crisp bacon.”
Somehow, “limp” seems prurient…and inadequate, as limp usually proves to be in that context.
Officially, Hurricane Sandy took 106 lives, but stupidity actually took most of them. 12 people (age 65+) fell down stairs in the dark–probably looking for their flashlights. Some Einsteins ran their generators inside their homes. That took another nine lives. Car accidents were also county as attributable to Sandy. I don’t buy that one, but if you’re going to drive through a hurricane, well, that’s stupid in itself. Drownings (49 of them) were stupid for those who decided to drive through rushing water and, in the minutes that followed their last idiotic act, wished they hadn’t. Avoidable fires also took some lives. Some people were injured and died b/c emergency help was unavailable to them. That sucks and, depending upon how they were injured, their deaths may not have been the result of stupidity. Likewise the people who had trees fall on them. That sucks. Overall, though, most of the deaths from Sandy were the direct result of stupid. One other thing. I got suckered with Katrina but was only too happy, two years, ago to donate necessities to victims of the devastating West Virginia floods that took 24 lives. That wasn’t a hurricane, just a stalled system that dumped way too much water in too short a time span. So, if folks get in a pinch when the Great Zucchini hits, call 1 (800) 621-3362. That’s the number for FEMA.
“Evacuations ordered for four military bases as Florence approaches East Coast”
https://www.stripes.com/news/us/evacuations-ordered-for-four-military-bases-as-florence-approaches-east-coast-1.547055
Tehre’s a fine satellite shot of Flossie’s eye-wall on various places on the ‘net.
It is impressive, because you can almost see straight to the bottom of the center of the storm. I feel sorry for any birds that have been caught up in that thing. They have no way to escape.
Several photos here:
http://www.euronews.com/2018/09/11/satellite-images-show-scale-of-hurricane-florence
Prayers up for all in her path. Safe harbors for all getting out. Happy hooking to my Brothers & Sisters in the Utility Line Construction Gangs. We hate storm damage work. Money looks good on paper but taxes gets most of it. Repairing damaged lines = 100 things can happen and 96 of them things ain’t good. This time last year we were on standby for deployment to Graybeards AO in support of Harvey Damage, when Irma came slamming in. We worked 14 hour days 13 on & 1 off till Thanksgiving. Didn’t ease up too much till Jan ’18. TIA in March sidelined me till now. May and or may not be able to help with this one.
I am 4 miles from the beach at ground zero…rode them out for 40 year…not this one… https://youtu.be/lnLeT_qE0-g?t=9s
Looks like the Great Zucchini is going the way of pre-election pollsters. It will go where it wants when it wants and there is nothing anyone can do about it, except to maybe blame the Russians.