China’s Tiangong-1 space station will crash to Earth within weeks

Live in northern China, the Middle East, central Italy, northern Spain or the northern states of the US, New Zealand, Tasmania, parts of South America and southern Africa? Then I have some bad news for you.

The Guardian reports China’s first space station is expected to come crashing down to Earth within weeks, but scientists have not been able to predict where the 8.5-tonne module will hit.

Estimates differ, but the US-funded Aerospace Corporation thinks the Tiangong-1 will re-enter the atmosphere during the first week of April, give or take a week, while the European Space Agency says the module will come down between 24 March and 19 April. They’re just a bit vague on the “where” part.

“If this should happen, any surviving debris would fall within a region that is a few hundred kilometres in size,” said Aerospace, a research organization that advises government and private enterprise on space flight.

“When considering the worst-case location … the probability that a specific person (ie, you) will be struck by Tiangong-1 debris is about one million times smaller than the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot.

“In the history of spaceflight no known person has ever been harmed by reentering space debris. Only one person has ever been recorded as being hit by a piece of space debris and, fortunately, she was not injured.”

“I would guess that a few pieces will survive re-entry. But we will only know where they are going to land after the fact.”

Aerospace Corperation warned that the space station might be carrying a highly toxic and corrosive fuel called hydrazine on board, so there’s that. I certainly feel better, now. Thank you Chinese rocket scientists!

Category: It's science!