Today’s Crimea Update
It doesn’t exactly look like Russia is planning on backing down regarding returning the Crimea to Russian control.
Friday evening, Russian forces disarmed Ukrainian troops at a missile base, then occupied it. The Ukrainian forces were reportedly surrounded and told to give up their weapons. The Ukrainian troops present apparently complied with the ultimatum.
Russian forces also took over the main hospital in the Crimean capital of Simferopol. They were reportedly joined in doing so by personnel from pro-Russian local militias.
Prospects for a negotiated settlement don’t appear too hopeful. The Russian government still recognizes the government of deposed Ukrainian President Yanukovych as the legitimate government for the Ukraine. Western nations generally recognize the interim Ukrainian government which ousted Yanukovych as the legitimate Ukrainian government.
Further: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has indicated that current US proposals for resolving the crisis are not acceptable, telling Russian President Putin that those proposals “do not suit us very much”. Putin has also now publicly backed the proposed referendum regarding Crimea’s separation from the Ukraine and return to Russian control scheduled for 16 March.
Finally, NATO has taken the step of beginning AWACS surveillance flights over Poland and Romania to monitor the situation. What good – if any – those flights will do remains to be seen.
Looks like things could get rather interesting in about a week.
Category: Foreign Policy, Military issues
I was talking to a reporter with an Army background this morning who was there a few weeks ago and going back next week. His opinion is that it is over; Russia is taking Crimea, the vote is a formality, and there isn’t anything that the US or Europe can do.
I suspect the same. What might Vlad the Impaler do next?
With the limp-wristed Kenyan Kandidate we have in the White, the sky’s the limit.
Ok, maybe that was a little over the top … but still, just sayin’.
Of course the result of the referendum will be pro-Russia, regardless of how people actually vote. It’s true that the population majority is Russian and most likely on Putin’s side, but it goes without saying that the results will be what he says they will be, kinda like his own re-election. The Russian majority in Crimea just means he doesn’t really need to rig the election to get what he wants this time–but that would take all the fun out invading his neighbors!
I’m sure that Barrycade came back from his golf outing in the Keys with all kinds on new options. I hope I don’t have to point out that sarcasm was involved there.
I’m sure that B. Hussein 0bama has this on his mind while he’s on his latest vacation.
/SARC
No, 2/17AirCav, this has interfered with his vacation. Didn’t you know that? It’s just terrible! (snarc on)
Hondo,
Would that be, “…returning the Crimea to Ukrainian control?”
OldSoldier54: no. The Crimea has historically been aligned with Russia – not the Ukraine – since it became part of the Russian Empire in the 1770s. It became part of the Ukrainian SSR because the Supreme Soviet of the USSR gave it to the Ukraine, probably to cement Ukrainian loyalty and damage historical Ukrainian-Muslim ties, in 1954.
The Crimea in 1954 was probably 75% or so ethnically Russian. Today, even in spite of massive ethnic Russian out-migration and the return of many of Crimea’s Tatars, it’s still close to 60% ethnically Russian.
Russia wants the Crimea back under Russian control. Culturally and historically, they see the Crimea as an integral part of Russia – Soviet-era transfer to the Ukraine be damned.
Ah. Thinking about it, isn’t this where the Charge of the Light Brigade happened? British vs Russia?
That is correct. At Balaclava.
Britian, France, the Ottoman Empire, and the Kingdom of Sardinia fought Russia in that conflict. They prevailed, with the result that the Black Sea was neutralized and Russian expansion vis the Ottoman Empire was temporarily halted.
By that point, the Crimea had been part of the Russian Empire for nearly four generations (80 years).
Perhaps POTUS was HOPING things would CHANGE.
Putin has been playing him like a three rubel Moscow hooker for years.
This mess reminds me of the hot mic moment he had with Putin just prior to the elections … Putin must have been thinking … “He is a moron and this is awesome!”
“Western nations generally recognize the interim Ukrainian government which ousted Yanukovych as the legitimate Ukrainian government.” And this is what bothers me and prevents me from holding up a “Down with Ivan” placard. The deposed Ukraine president was the legitimate head of gov’t. He was removed extra-legally and the rabble was placated by sudden changes in other gov’t positions. At about the same time, the Crimea established its own parliament of a sort despite the fact that the Crimea has no independent legislative branch by law. So, from my distant perspective, the situation was as ripe as it can be for Ivan’s “help” to return some stability and the legitimate president. Or am I wrong about this?
IMO you’re spot on, 2/17 Air Cav. While the West might prefer the interim government in the Ukraine to its pro-Russian predecessor, it’s IMO a stretch to call it a legitimate government and deem its predecessor illegitimate. The transition was hardly according to current Ukrainian law.
The situation is indeed murky as hell. Add Russia’s historical claims, and it would have been IMO very surprising if not shocking had Russia stood by and done nothing.
2/17 Air Cav Here-Here. Yanukovych is in my opinion (but not in my business) the true governing leader of the Ukraine. If Russia wants to help restore him, then more power to them. Thus far it is happening peacefully. Russian troops tell Ukrainian troops to give up, lay down your weapons…and they do. I think there is more pro Russian sentiment in the Ukraine than the press is telling us about.
Best I can tell, not in most of the Ukraine, Sparks. Most of the Ukraine wants to remain independent from Russia.
The exceptions are the Crimea and (maybe) some parts of extreme eastern Ukraine. Those areas appear to be more pro-Russian. And the Crimea is the only region of the present-day Ukraine that is ethnically majority Russian (nearly 60%). Given that and its history, it’s not surprising (to me, anyway) that the Crimean population generally seems to welcome Russian intervention – while most of the rest of the Ukraine doesn’t.
“Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has indicated that current US proposals for resolving the crisis are not acceptable, telling Russian President Putin that those proposals “do not suit us very much”.”
That’s a very polite way I think of telling Obama to go cram Kerry’s dick up his ass.
Finally, NATO has taken the step of beginning AWACS surveillance flights over Poland and Romania to monitor the situation. What good – if any – those flights will do remains to be seen.
Hondo, the purpose of these flights is to get some really cool National Geographic pics and maybe, just maybe as spring is approaching, some nudie Polish, Romanian rooftop sun bathers. Wink-wink.
Truly though it is a big waste of gas and at this point putting US or NATO assets in proximity to Russia’s agenda is asking for problems. I do not advocate backing down from them or anyone…if we had a Reagan in the White House to back up what he starts. But Obama would have to be pulled out from under the Oval Office Desk kicking and screaming in fear if Putin even calls him on the “Red Phone”.
Geez, Sparks, would please post a spew alert if you’re going to write stuff lika that? I also sprayed my monitor.