Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov’s accurate warning to Putin before the invasion

| March 9, 2022
Markings on Russian and Russian allied tanks.jpg

Markings on Russian and Russian allied tanks.

Prior to Russia’s invading Ukraine, a Russian organization consisting of retired Russian military officers discussed the increased likelihood of Russia going to war. From their interactions, Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov wrote and posted an open letter. Many of the letter’s warnings have already occurred. It also provides an insight on internal factors, within Russia, that appear to be contributing factors.

Full transcript, translated via Google translate:

Today humanity lives in anticipation of war. And war is the inevitable loss of life, destruction, suffering of large masses of people, the destruction of the usual way of life, the violation of the vital systems of states and peoples. A big war is a huge tragedy, someone’s serious crime. It so happened that Russia was at the center of this impending catastrophe. And, perhaps, this is the first time in its history.

Previously, Russia (USSR) waged forced (just) wars, and, as a rule, when there was no other way out, when the vital interests of the state and society were threatened.

And what threatens the existence of Russia itself today, and are there such threats? It can be argued that there is indeed a threat – the country is on the verge of completing its history. All vital areas, including demography, are steadily degrading, and the rate of population extinction is breaking world records. And degradation is systemic in nature, and in any complex system, the destruction of one of the elements can lead to the collapse of the entire system.

And this, in our opinion, is the main threat to the Russian Federation. But this is a threat of an internal nature, emanating from the model of the state, the quality of power and the state of society. And the reasons for its formation are internal: the unviability of the state model, the complete incapacity and lack of professionalism of the system of power and administration, the passivity and disorganization of society. In this state, any country does not live long.

As for external threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not currently critical, directly threatening the existence of Russian statehood, its vital interests. On the whole, strategic stability is maintained, nuclear weapons are under reliable control, NATO forces are not building up, and they are not showing threatening activity.

Therefore, the situation that is being whipped up around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, mercenary in nature for some internal forces, including the Russian Federation. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, in which Russia (Yeltsin) took a decisive part, Ukraine became an independent state, a member of the UN, and in accordance with Art. 51 of the UN Charter has the right to individual and collective defense.

The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet recognized the results of the referendum on the independence of the DPR and LPR, while at the official level more than once, including during the Minsk negotiation process, emphasized the belonging of their territories and population to Ukraine.

It has also been said more than once at a high level about the desire to maintain normal relations with Kiev, without singling out special relations with the DPR and LPR.

The issue of the genocide perpetrated by Kyiv in the southeastern regions was not raised either in the UN or in the OSCE. Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, it was necessary for it to demonstrate the attractiveness of the Russian model of the state and the system of power.

But the Russian Federation did not become one, its development model and foreign policy mechanism of international cooperation repel almost all neighbors, and not only the acquisition of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and their non-recognition as Russian by the international community (and, therefore, the overwhelming number of states in the world still consider them to belong to Ukraine) convincingly shows the failure of Russian foreign policy, and the unattractiveness of domestic attempts to “love” the Russian Federation and its leadership through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force are senseless and extremely dangerous.

The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. Thirdly, there will be thousands (tens of thousands) of dead young, healthy guys on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. On the battlefield, if this happens, Russian troops will face not only Ukrainian military personnel, among whom there will be many Russian guys, but also military personnel and equipment from many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia.

President of the Republic of Turkey R. Erdogan clearly stated which side Turkey would fight on and it can be assumed that two Turkish field armies and a navy will be ordered to “liberate” the Crimea and Sevastopol and possibly invade the Caucasus.

In addition, Russia will definitely be included in the category of countries that threaten peace and international security, will be subject to the heaviest sanctions, will turn into a pariah of the world community, and will probably be deprived of the status of an independent state.

The president and the government, the Ministry of Defense cannot fail to understand such consequences, they are not so stupid.

The question arises: what are the true goals of provoking tension on the brink of war, and the possible unleashing of large-scale hostilities? And that there will be, says the number and combat composition of the groupings of troops formed by the parties – no less than one hundred thousand servicemen from each side. Russia, exposing the eastern borders, is transferring formations to the borders of Ukraine.

In our opinion, the country’s leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis, and this can lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country, with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt officials, lured media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final destruction Russian statehood and the extermination of the indigenous population of the country.

And war is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We cannot suggest any other explanation.

From the President of the Russian Federation, we are officers of Russia, we demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will find itself alone against the united forces of the West, to create conditions for the implementation of Art. 3 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and resign.

We appeal to all retired and retired military personnel, citizens of Russia with a recommendation to be vigilant, organized, support the demands of the Council of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, actively oppose propaganda and unleashing a war, and prevent an internal civil conflict with the use of military force.

Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov
Chairman of the “All-Russian Officers’ Assembly”

Sting – Russians (Official Music Video)

Here is where the above letter came from. The Hill provides an article addressing the letter.

Category: Russia

22 Comments
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Ret_25X

the key to this letter is the concept of national failure being the result of a systemic fault. Many nations in the past, and likely in the future will react to the crumbling of their national identity by becoming bellicose.

The entire story of Ukraine vs Russia is the story of two empires of lies at odds over who gets to tell the lies.

Roh-Dog

I think this should be in bold as President Putin has mentioned this often:

And what threatens the existence of Russia itself today, and are there such threats? It can be argued that there is indeed a threat – the country is on the verge of completing its history. All vital areas, including demography, are steadily degrading, and the rate of population extinction is breaking world records. And degradation is systemic in nature, and in any complex system, the destruction of one of the elements can lead to the collapse of the entire system.

Rightly or wrongly, Mr Putin believes he is fighting against a Godless hedonistic cabal of pedophile degenerates that use money and culture as a weapon.

I wonder where he got that idea?

It would have been more convenient, and a lot less bloody, if he’d used the Hungarian-model of demography-building.

5JC

Nope,

Putin says he is fighting a special peace keeping operation against Jewish Nazi Comedians who are oppressing the population.

Roh-Dog

With all due respect, you failed to mention; lizard people, space lasers, bioweapon labs*, or Russia’s attempt to capture the center of the discoid earth.
B-
Updooted!

*Nuland either misspoke or this one is as good as verified.

David

https://tass.com/world/1418925 then there is the claim that the US is operating bioweapons labs in Ukraine. (Ignoring the Chinese virus that has killed 6 million.)

Quartermaster

The bioweapons labs are not such a thing. Nor were they secret. Congress funded them lond ago.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/03/08/obama-led-ukraine-biolab-efforts/

Hondo

That could explain how the US govt knows about the facilities in question. (smile)

Last edited 3 months ago by Hondo
Anonymous

Russia’s gonna Russia.

KoB

The General is spot on. Odd how the politicians who have never fired a shot in anger are always the FIRST (ht 2 Roh-Dog) to want to have a war. Make them fight the wars (with no collateral damage to innocents) against one another and there would be no wars.

Do the math on this. Hitlery and BJW colluded with Putin. Biden, Skeery & Co colluded with Ukrainian Gas Companies and the Chinese Communists. Oil is $113 a barrel and headed North. The Chinese Bat Flu and the Durham Report have disappeared from the news feeds.

A pox upon those that wish to impose slavery upon the people of the world. Live Free…Die Well.  🇸🇴 

rgr769

Yup, last I checked it was over $130 a barrel. Some are saying it could approach $200 per barrel. That would translate to about $10.00 per gallon.

Roh-Dog

WTI dropped 10.8% today closing at 110 fiat shit tokens per bbl.
I have been developing a short position as the run-up is overdone as indicated by the recent blowing up of hedgies by margin call, imho.

Thats short term… I have a feeling the ‘some’ are close to the mark.

STSC(SW/SS)

With a falling population I am afraid of the possibility of becoming a failed state and all of those nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.

MCPO USN

Putin will be 70 in October. Reports are he is spending a lot more time in his remote compound. One theory I heard is that he is dying of something and this is his last big splash to be considered a savior of the Russian people and lie in state like Lenin.

Mike B

He’s just saying General Milley and his ilk are in Ukraine, and Russia is in danger of them coming infecting his people.

Could you imagine if Russia had officers like General Milley…….

HT3

I think they do to a degree:

They are no competent military commanders, but rather politicians in uniform using the same back-stabbing tactics to advance/fail up the ladder. Great leaders are few, and the extraordinary circumstances that create them thankfully occur less and less. There are NO MORE Pattons, Halseys, Brandleys or Schartzkoffs coming down the pike in my opinion.

I saw drone video of Russian tanks only moving in parade formation only to be ambushed by Ukrainian AT positions. Needless to say, the beat a hasty retreat. I mean what army advances tanks without infantry support? The spacing was awful. If Ukraine had any attack helos or ground attack planes, it would have looked Desert Storm’s Highway of Death. No leadership/poor tactics and the Ukrainian fighting spirit is carrying the day

Hondo

For his sake, I do hope Ivashov is no longer in Russia.

If he is, after the publication of this letter I’m not terribly keen on his long-term prospects. People on Putin’s “bad” list often don’t fare that well.

I’d say, “Ask Alexander Litvinenko for his views on the matter” – but he’s no longer available for comment.

rgr1480

Retired LTC? Spy? You be the judge.

illya_kuryakin.jpg
rgr1480

Oops … I meant to post this image. (^__^)

Vladimir_Putin_in_KGB_uniform.jpg
Anonymous

Hey, either way. More than just:
comment image

Quartermaster

With his moll, Natasha, always after Moose ant skvirrel.

Quartermaster

Boris Dowrong of the KGB.

Quartermaster

Now, leave Ilya out of this. He was of the good guys, even if was a Soviet.