Gun Crime Causation-Correlation Fallacy

| January 10, 2022

The spike in violent crime last year was a marked departure from crime patterns over the last several decades. In fact, 2020 was likely the deadliest year for gun-related homicides since 1999. According to the Gun Violence Archive, more than 19,000 people died of gun violence in 2020. This spike was particularly acute in major cities.

A theory called “The Minneapolis Effect” best explains the 2020 spike in gun-related violence. According to that theory, a reduction of proactive policing (also called depolicing)—such as street patrols, stop-question-and-frisks, and traffic stops—resulted in an abrupt increase in homicides.

This theory flies in the face of the gun control narrative, of course. OAM sends.

The Data Are Pointing to One Major Driver of America’s Murder Spike

Opinion by Jeff Asher

After murders in the United States soared to more than 21,000 in 2020, researchers began searching for a definitive explanation why. Many factors may have contributed, such as a pandemic-driven loss of social programs and societal and policing changes after George Floyd’s murder. But one hypothesis is simpler, and perhaps has significant explanatory power: A massive increase in gun sales in early 2020 led to additional murders.

New data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) suggest that that indeed may have been the case. According to the data, newly purchased weapons found their way into crimes much more quickly and often last year than in prior years. That seems to point to a definitive conclusion—that new guns led to more murders—but the data set cannot prove that just yet.


A few details about the “definitive conclusion” that lacks proven data fails to address:

-The inordinate increase shooting crimes other than homicide.
-The fact that other “street” or “blue-collar” crimes remained relatively the same while shootings spiked.
-The timing of the violent surge, which began the last week of May, just days after the death of George Floyd.
-The fact that the violent crime spike was largely confined to major Democrat cities.

Theory: A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested.

Opinion: Everyone has one. Even Mr. Asher. Thanks, OAM.

Category: Guest Link, Gun Grabbing Fascists, Pointless blather

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Here’s some “theories” for why:

Lack of proper home training.

Lack of personal responsibilities.

Lack of swift and true punishment for crimes.

Lack of knowledge that trying to gain street cred will get you killed.

Lack of respect for human life.

Karma thinning the herd.


“Suggest” “possible”… an unadulterated opinion unsupported by fact or causation. “I have heard Jeffrey Asher enjoys eating dog poop from his pink poodle’s butt” is at least as factually valid.


These progtard progdagandists never miss an opportunity to blame gun crime on the inanimate object used in the crime. Funny how they never blame drunk driving homicides and injuries on the motor vehicles owned by most law-abiding citizens.


Methinks this is a chicken and egg thing going on. Massive increase in crime and government over reach combined with a plague, riots, looting, police officer shortages, municipal governments that were happy to fiddle while it all burned may have spurred the sale of firearms.

If they think the sale of firearms has caused murder than I am sure they have the data showing that all these new gun purchases were used in the killings.


Don’t hold your breath. That data don’t exist, brother.

MI Ranger

There are likely a significant number of new gun purchases that were used in homicides!

This statement is factually correct but uses misleading statistics to support its conclusion. Were these new gun purchases used to defend a person who was later charged with a crime because they failed to check all the boxes or leap all the hurdles placed before them by their liberal masters? Were these new gun purchases poorly maintained and a criminal was able to obtain the item by theft or other malfeasance in order to commit homicide?
Statistics can always be used to support a conclusion, as long as one does not look too deep into the facts. –Every Economics Teacher at a Major University

AW1 Rod

Yeah…..and new data seem to point to the “definitive conclusion” that silverware leads to overeating and obesity.

President Elect Toxic Deplorable Racist SAH Neanderthal B Woodman Domestic Violent Extremist SuperStraight

And pencil erasers lead to misspeeling.

Kaybords caues mi8stakes tooo!

A Proud Infidel®™

Alec Baldwin has killed more people than my entire Gun Collection did before that accident in the quicksand, just sayin’.

MI Ranger

Same here…right before that horrible boating accident!


Progressivism is positively correlated with violence. (I’m wrong?)


Just got done watching Colin Noir do a 5-part series ripping liberal comedian Steve Hofstadter’s claim he debunked every argument against gun control.

Well worth it if you can spare the time.

Dragoon 45

Think back to your days on AD. What does Joe do the first night he is given liberty after a long field problem or being confined to the Barracks for a long period. Yep that’s right, he goes out into town blows off steam and more likely than not gets into a lot of trouble.

Now what has happened for the last two years in every shit hole Demoncrat controlled city? People have been locked down, and not been able to blow off any steam for a considerable period of time. And the idiots in charge wonder why the murder rate jumped? Any sociologist could have told them that is what will happen when they put those lock downs in place. Hell, for that matter this was covered in my Psych 101 class in college also, so it should have been common knowledge. But the scum-sucking Demoncrats did it deliberately knowing those lockdowns would end up in a higher murder rate. Sure the defunding the police thing helped, but the lockdowns and other COVID BS forced down people’s throats, caused most of this.

And the scum-sucking politicians will never admit they knew this would happen or that they were warned it would happen. So why did they do it? I’ll let everyone else here make their own conclusions.


Is all part of plan comrade!


The rise in homicides in democrat run shitholes has nothing to do with:

Police “brutality”

The riots do have everything to do with:

Lack of Fathers to guide young men
Lack of moral maturity

Of course lefties will attempt to blame firearms, in their warped minds, nothing is ever traced back to personal responsibility but to a societal “ill” or thing.

Why is this the case? Well, it is one tenet of Marx’ BS “manifesto” that crime is purely the result of social climate (“class”) struggle.

This is why everything is the fault of firearms, police, republicans, or capitalists.

Only Army Mom

Ret_25X –
I would reorder your causation list with Democrat (policies) in the top spot. Everything else on your causation list flows from the first like the seepage from a septic tank.