‘This is not going to be won militarily’
U.S. Army Gen. Austin Miller speaks during the change of command ceremony at Resolute Support headquarters in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Sept. 2, 2018. Miller assumed command of the 41-nation NATO mission in Afghanistan following a handover ceremony. (Massoud Hossaini/AP)
Top US commander in Afghanistan reveals pessimism
The new U.S. general leading the mission in Afghanistan gave a surprisingly candid interview this week on the situation in-country.
In his first interview since taking command of NATO’s Resolute Support mission in September, Army Gen. Austin Miller’s thoughts seem to mirror the pessimism felt by the American people as the war in Afghanistan treads past the 17-year mark.
“This is not going to be won militarily,” Miller told NBC News in an exclusive interview. “This is going to a political solution.”
“My assessment is the Taliban also realizes they cannot win militarily,” he said. “So if you realize you can’t win militarily at some point, fighting is just, people start asking why. So you do not necessarily wait us out, but I think now is the time to start working through the political piece of this conflict.”
Miller’s comments reflect several realities portrayed in the latest report from the leading U.S. government oversight agency on Afghanistan.
As of July, the Afghan government controls or influences only 55.5 percent of the country’s 407 districts.
That is the lowest level since the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, or SIGAR, began tracking district control in November 2015, according to the group’s quarterly report released Thursday.
Although the exact numbers are classified, Resolute Support also said that the average number of Afghan government force casualties from May to October 2018 is the highest it has ever been during similar periods.
May was the most active month, accounting for 26 percent of all casualties during this five-month period. About 52 percent of the casualties during this time came during checkpoint operations, while 35 percent occurred during patrols.
The somewhat good news is that the Afghan government’s control over the total population in-country remains unchanged since this time last year at 65 percent.
SIGAR reported that the number of checkpoint casualties is increasing while the number of patrol casualties is decreasing.
When Miller took over the war in early September, Afghan soldiers were already being killed and wounded at record numbers.
Miller told NBC News that he kicked off his tenure by pushing out a more aggressive policy of helping the Afghan military locate and defeat Taliban fighters. But in that new interview, Miller also acknowledged that Afghanistan requires a political, not military, solution to its woes.
Not especially heartening news, but if the conflict ends at the bargaining table, sooner is better. The article in its entirity can be read at The Military Times
Category: Afghanistan, Terror War
1st
Only works on Friday’s WOT, sgt. v.
Wow! A four star publically says what Private Snuffy has known for 17 years. We NEVER learn from history, NEVER. There is NOT going to be a political solution in Afghanistan because corruption and privilege is a way of life. Saving that third world shithole was NOT worth one American life 17 years ago and even less today. It is way past the time to pack up and leave.
The “No shit, I told you so” award goes to just about everyone in the military not wearing a star or Eagle on their shirt.
I read some place that the conflict with the Taliban (and Russia) never got into the “thumb” of Afghanistan, and that they have not seen warfare there since Alexander’s trek through the region.
Would that be the reason they’ve been missed?
Taliban didn’t exist during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Sorry, but they did. They were simply poor (not wealthy) students at the time, called taliban.
“Fighting from irrigation ditches, the mujahedeen were able to slow the Soviet advance, and tanks got bogged down in the dense patchwork of pomegranate groves and apple orchards. As one week turned to the next, Soviet and Afghan army casualties mounted. Air support plowed the area with ordnance, but the mujahedeen were able to survive by spending days on end in bunkers and irrigation ditches. The tanks retreated to the open desert, acting as rear artillery for the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan’s (DRA)
infantry, which pushed through the orchards on foot.
“Neither side was able to dislodge the other, and the battle settled into a protracted, bloody routine. “The enemy would begin the morning with an aircraft and artillery bombardment from the south and southeast,” said Akhtar Jan, a mujahedeen commander. “Usually, they would then send eight helicopter gunships to work over the area. Then, they would launch infantry attacks. The mujahedeen would emerge from their bunkers, occupy fighting positions and wait for the approaching infantry.” Losses mounted on both sides. Soviet and DRA army morale plummeted, and the mujahedeen food supplies dwindled.
“Then, the Soviets made a tactical error. They began filtering in from the northwest of Charqulba, through the holy village of Jelahor, which had been emptied of people over the course of the war. And a second group pushed in from the opposite bank of the Arghandab river, through the village of Char Bagh, which was a base of poor religious students who had formed units of their own to fight the Russians. These students, called taliban in Pashto, had been among the earliest to take up arms against the Soviets. Akbar Agha was one of them.”
This was in 1987.
Source: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/exmqee/how-the-soviet-afghan-war-made-the-taliban-923
What had been a small group of religious students in 1987 became a large group of religious fanatics. The Soviets did not leave until 1989.
Actually, The roots of the Taliban stretch back to when Wahhabi Islam was brought to British India(including North-West Frontier)
This occurred prior to the Sepoy Mutiny of 1857 and contributed to the end of the Mughal Empire.
……The end of ‘Company Rule’ in India and the beginning of the British Raj.
Good catch Ex. I stand corrected. The Taliban as a governing organization was the result of infighting among clans that compromised the Mujahideen post Soviet withdrawal. The Taliban could not have come into power in 1994 without direct support from our ally Pakistan and hardliners in the ISI.
As I’ve said previously whenever we do negotiate our status in Afghanistan leave or stay, it will be with some faction of the Taliban.
A Theater Commander saying what needs to be done vis-a-vis what he thinks they want to hear. The horror. “if conflict ends at bargaining table, sooner is better.” Works for me! We tried blasting them back to the stone ages (they were already there). We tried winning their hearts and minds still having blue on blue attacks. What’s next, Peace with Honor?” A meeting in Paris, resulting in an ultimately worthless piece of paper? The abandonment of billions of dollars worth of American Equipment that may be used against us at some point in time? The betrayal of those that were loyal and tried to help us? When and where have we seen this movie before? The Grave yard of Empires, indeed.
” The betrayal of those that were loyal and tried to help us?”
We are there to help them. They are there to help themselves–it’s their country they are fighting for, not ours. Any debt we owe them has been more than paid for in full with the lives and blood of our soldiers. And the billions of dollars of our money they have received.
Yes, helping us help them. You won’t get any argument out of me on the American Blood and Treasure we have wasted in Astan, or any of the other shit hole middle east countries. You may have noticed I have posted on countless times our futility and the stupidity for us being in any of those places. Bush II used the whole 9-11 attacks to justify going into Astan, and then back into Iraq. His daddy should have finished the job in Feb of ’91 and a lot of what has happened since would probably not taken place. Blow Job Willie had several shots @ OBL and blew those chances. I repeat, IMHO, the only way to win in that whole section of the world is to pull all of our assets out, call the Boys and Girls in Minot ND and turn the whole damn place into a sea of glass. Rest assured, when WWIII kicks off and there is nothing but smoking ruins everywhere, those people will rise from the ashes and start killing one another with rocks and sticks. GTFO!!
“This is not going to be won militarily.” No shit. A winnable war is one in which armed forces face off and, sooner or later, one surrenders or is annihilated. Modern warfare tends much more toward forcing opponents to do what, without some pain, they would be reluctant to do: negotiate. As I see it, absent a worldwide conflict, we will not be “in it until we win it” any longer.
it is certainly possible to “win” militarily in Afghanistan.
The process is gruesome and the will necessary to do it very high, but it is possible to kill all taliban, etc.
In fact, it is even possible to kill all terrorists.
But, the cost benefit analysis shows a very low return on the force involved….
I do not dispute that. I’ll go a step further and say that the US can win any conflict it dedicates its strength, will, and military might to win. It’s just that such an effort hasn’t occurred since we entered WWII and, before that, the Civil War.
“now is the time to start working through the political piece of this conflict.”
Oh goody we have made it to this juncture. Like it is some kind of accomplishment.
Here’s a political solution, leave.
GTFO! NOW!
Haven’t we seen this movie before? And how many times have we sat through it? I’ve lost track.
“This is not going to be won militarily,” Miller told NBC News in an exclusive interview. “This is going to a political solution.”
The man is an idiot. We, the taxpayers, have spent vast sums of money training and educating him and his ilk in “war colleges” where they obviously learn nothing about war or politics.
As some dead white male politician once said, “War is much too important to be left to the generals”. Unfortunately, politicians rarely do any better.
TImActual, The man is not an idiot. He is a straight shooter who understands the ground truth. All the money invested in his “war colleges” actually proved worthwhile. The US military does not promote idiots to 4 star position. Making it through the ranks is not a given; one has to dedicate and sacrifice more than in previous generation. The war has been a political tool for a long time. We want to win in Afghanistan, but how do you define winning? Taliban dismantled? Um…Pakistan grants them safe haven. Unless you are willing to engage Pakistan, what are you to do. For the last decade plus, you have additional factions providing support in the region. General Miller’s job is to keep the 41 countries together, but how do you get support from countries who are responsible for security in certain sectors of Afghanistan? Explain how you get countries like Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Turkey, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Italy, Germany, UK, and the rest of the lot to spend vast sums of money and put their soldiers in harms way? These countries were not attacked on 9/11. While the mission has turned to Training, Advising, and Assisting, explain how you are going to get many of these countries to attack Taliban positions? The Afghans have a difficult time doing it without US support. If you were so great in your military career, why aren’t you in his position? Let me guess, you are too smart. That is why you make armchair general comments on this website. If you could do it better, you would, but I have a feeling you were never in a position of command. Better yet, if you think you know how to do it, why are you on the front lines leading the charge? I have been there six times. Improvements are being made, but the problem is the cost in time, money, and morale. Explain how you tell soldiers to continue to serve and go back to the same place, to do the same thing, for little to no benefit. At some point,… Read more »
” how do you define winning”
Sure would have been nice to figure that one out before we went in. After all, that’s what we pay and educate all those GOFOs for.
” explain how you are going to get many of these countries to attack Taliban positions?”
I wouldn’t. For one thing, their governments set their rules of engagement, not the US.
” General Miller’s job is to keep the 41 countries together”
No, that is a political task for the politicians. That’s what we pay them for.
“If you were so great in your military career”
Wasn’t, actually, but thanks for assuming I was.
” If you could do it better, you would”
No, actually, I wouldn’t. I did my four years and had no desire to stay in.
“why are you on the front lines leading the charge”
Too old, for one thing. And too smart.
“I have been there six times”
Why haven’t we won, then?
” Explain how you tell soldiers to continue…”
I tell them they volunteered for this shit, nobody forced them.
” In the end, we are delaying the inevitable. Afghanistan will crumble.”
Well, we agree on something, anyway. You do realize, don’t you, that your second to last paragraph makes my point?
” Simply put TimActual, STFU!”
No.
TimActual,
Four years. Well thank you for your immaculate service to the country. I’m glad someone who was never in leadership schools, never in staff positions, never had G series orders, never tried out for/nor been accepted into special operations, but somehow smarter than a 30+ year infantry and SFOD-D veteran.
I bet your can throw a football better than Drew Brees too… Enjoy your free meal on veteran’s day.
This clown, Miller, also obviously does not understand anything about the country or what motivates the Taliban, etc. What the hell has he been doing since 9/11?
ensuring his political bona fides were correctly polished.
What else would a general be doing…it is not like they actually participate in any operations…
^word^ One thing for sure that has not changed in the past decades. That desire to “get my ticket punched”, have all the proper checks in the proper boxes. They spend their time in the “War College” or CGSC studying the last war so they’ll know how to lose the next one. The 2LT that is inside the wire there today, whom was in 1st grade on 11Sep01, will be the General inside the wire 30 years from now telling everyone he has the answer to winning this lost cause.
So, timactual, what’s the answer then? Apparently this general is a clown and an idiot.
I presume you have a viable solution. I’d love to hear it.
Get out. That’s my solution for the US. Afghanistan will have to find its own solution.
I’m with you there. 100 percent.
“Nuke the site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure”.
probably deploying…a lot. What have you been doing clown?
The above comment was directed at TimActual…to be referred to from now on as Bozo.
Paying for his deployments. All of which, evidently seem to have been pointless as we are still in the same situation we were 17 years ago.
Paying for all those deployments. All of which, evidently, were pointless as we seem to be in the same situation we were 17 years ago.
These peeps have been living this way for Centuries and I don’t think that we can change their way of living.
Hmmm. This would be a good time to have a master negotiator around.
Oh. We have one. He now resides at 1600 PA Ave. How fortuitous.
COL David Hackworth wrote “The Vietnam Primer” about 50 years ago. You would think this would be required reading for all Army leaders. It details studying the enemy and being better at their tactics then they are. The Taliban will only respect and fear an enemy that is more brutal than they are.
Some time ago when Jonn granted me access to the dashboard and the privilege and honor of posting here, a certain former Marine who’s initials are Dave Hardin called me to give some much needed stick and rudder, and caution of what I was getting into.
Among other things I won’t speak of, he mentioned the silent audience at TAH would surprise me, and that persons of import in the five-sided wind tunnel and elsewhere either read or were briefed on TAH.
I hope those personages are reading this, today.
AW1Ed, out.
Miller has a point, but what seems to be left unsaid is whether or not a political solution in Afghanistan is actually possible. This stuff is way out of my lane, but it might be that all the tribal factions deep down want the conflict to continue as a means of helping to support their economy. Either that or they are so used to the war now that there is no longer any understanding of an alternative. Such might sound absurd to us; to them it might make goofy sense. When you embrace the suck, the suck becomes normal.
Something to also consider, if memory serves, is that our original primary mission in Afghanistan was to kill Osama bin Laden. Afghanistan and the Taliban got caught in the collateral damage by providing him with sanctuary.
Personally, I don’t have a problem with maintaining a fight against radical Islam as a secondary mission. Afghanistan should not be able to provide a nursery for wannabe jihadists who are then exported to other countries. If we can somehow permanently stop the sanctuary and export, as harsh as it sounds, I’m not sure I’d shed tears if the Afghans all want to kill each other.
But obviously nobody elected me Grand Poobah of the Hindu Kush, so I’ll cheerfully defer to those who have been there.
If we don’t keep fighting the slamonazi’s, we better expect to have our womenfolk making the difficult fashion choice between the blue or the black burka. The Europussies have already given up on fighting them. In less than 100 years they will be absorbed into the isamist borg unless they learn to fight back.
The Europeans might be starting to catch a clue. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced recently that she would stand down from politics in 2021 when her current term ends. One apparent reason is that she’s taken a big hit over her decision to admit a tsunami of Muslim immigrants who have demonstrated no intention of assimilation into German culture. The result of such a failure is that, according to Merkel, she now no longer has the support of the coalition of interests which put her in power.
The shade of Charles ‘The Hammer’ Martel grins.
,” I don’t have a problem with maintaining a fight against radical Islam as a secondary mission”
I think it would be more accurate to call it “fundamentalist” Islam. There is nothing radical about jihad; it has been a mainstay of Islam since the beginning. They are just going “back to basics”.
Islam is like Communism; a totalitarian ideology which tolerates no rival. Military conflict is a means used by both, but not the only means. Like Communism, Islam also tries to infiltrate and subvert its enemies’ (and the West IS an enemy; read their instruction manual) institutions.
Wow, GEN Miller has a very impressive career indeed. Looks like some hairy & scary missions in Mogadishu & Bosnia as a company & field grade in Delta Force.
From Wiki:
After completing Ranger School, he was assigned a platoon in 3rd Battalion, 325th Infantry (Airborne), 82nd Airborne Division. Afterwards Miller was a platoon leader with A Company, 2nd Battalion (Ranger), 75th Ranger Regiment from January 1986 to May 1987.[5] Miller completed Infantry Officer Advanced Course in June 1989 and was assigned to South Korea as a Company Commander with 5th Battalion, 20th Infantry (Mechanized), 2nd Infantry Division, Eighth United States Army. Later he was an instructor at the Special Operations Division School of the Americas at Fort Benning Georgia. In 1992, Miller completed the Delta selection course and was assigned to 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment – Delta (1st SFOD-D), or Delta Force at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, where he held numerous leadership positions including Squadron Operations Officer, Troop Commander, Selection & Training Commander, A Squadron Commander, as well as Deputy Commander and Commanding Officer from 2005 to 2007. Miller participated in numerous combat operations during Operation Gothic Serpent in Somalia, Operation Joint Endeavor in Bosnia, Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom. In October 1993, Miller was the ground force commander during the Battle of Mogadishu whilst Lieutenant Colonel Gary L. Harrell held operational command of C Squadron, 1st SFOD-D.
A war that can’t be won militarily? Nonsense. Nuke ’em til they glow in the dark. Takes care of the Taliban, as well as China’s plans to build a railroad and take all the copper in N. Afghanistan.
We can win most non-nuclear wars if we are willing to ruthlessly kill enough of the enemy and pay the price in blood and treasure. The problem is the people and our politicians are not willing to pay that price. So, our females need to decide whether the want to wear the black or the blue burka.
If it is in our national interest to stay in Afghanistan for decades more to prevent it becoming a terrorist state ruled by the Taliban, perhaps we ought to farm the fighting out to contractors.
Bring our troops home and spend less than we are currently spending.
Let Blackwater (or whatever the name is now) hire former Spetznaz and Hondurans and fight the Taliban and support the ANA.
Might as well make AFG a command sponsored tour at this point.