Newest Nork News
From USA Today: U.S. Geological Survey data showed that a magnitude-6.3 seismic event was detected Sunday in North Hamgyeong Province. Later, the the geological survey said a magnitude-4.1 event was recorded eight minutes after the initial quake, “possibly a structural collapse” caused by the larger seismic event.
If it was that big an explosion, the yield is now estimated at 100 kilotons. A photo in the USA Today article shows ND:tBF looking at what may or may not be the subject of his claim that he has been testing a thermonuclear device, aka a hydrogen bomb. The unconfirmed test he says he conducted in June registered as a 5.1 seismic event, which was the strongest explosion he’s carried out so far. That is if he conducted such a test. His stated objective in this case is to get a warhead tacked onto a Hwasong-14 missile, which has a longer range than the Hwasong-12 he launched last week. He’s still aiming at Guam and other US territories.
For comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was 15 KT. Nagasaki was larger at 20 KT. Tsar Bomba was 50 megatons and could be dropped from an airplane. Castle Bravo, the highest yielding thermonuclear device the US tested, was supposed to be 5 MT, but that was a miscalculation. It was actually 15MT. http://www.atomicarchive.com/History/coldwar/page06.shtml
A reality check? Once this rocket scientist gets a missile that does not go to pieces en route, the probability of his launching one or several at other countries – specifically the USofA – is high on his list of priorities. I don’t have a copy of his list of ‘things to do today’, but I’m sure he’s ticking off each test as he goes.
Why Fatty Kim da T’ird is threatening only the US is beyond me, but he is making a lot of noise. His daddy used to threaten the South, and then occasionally launch missiles and fire tank ammo at them. As others have indicated before, his conventional weaponry isn’t particularly accurate, or up to date.
His trading partner, China, is not happy with him, and hasn’t been for some time. They still have troops stationed at the Jilin border, still keeping an eye on their bullying neighbor. They’ve restricted their trading with him for several months now. His trading deal with Moscow failed.
If he’s getting parts or help from Syria or Iran, that should be looked into. No, it should be stopped altogether. However, I’m quite sure that the current administration under the sitting president is much more on top of these things than the previous admin.
A joint bombing air exercise last week was a targeted response to Norkiland’s Hwasong-12, which cracked up and fell into the Pacific after it flew over Japan’s north island and worried people.
It’s probably the reason behind this latest explosion. He’s showing us again!
Dropping nukes on that place, as others have indicated before me, would be a waste of weaponry. The entire Korean peninsula north of the DMZ is extremely rugged and hilly. There is very little flatland north of the DMZ, which makes successful agriculture more difficult, but also presents a poor target zone for effective nukes. The nuke explosion’s damage comes from the heat and the blast wave. If it washes up a hillside or a mountain, it will fall back and incinerate the target zone again. Nukes are more effective in flatland, unless you want to make a profound statement such as: “Ours are nastier than yours are, Fat Boy.” In addition, Fatty Kim da T’ird has been busily digging into the granite mountains of the North, to provide shelter from bombs for himself and his favorites, not those who mean nothing to him.
Maybe it’s time someone just takes the bull by the horns and shoots the next Nork test missile to shit.
Category: North Korea
And if that wasn’t enough:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/04/north-korea-reportedly-appears-to-be-readying-for-new-launch.html
“North Korea appears to be preparing to launch a ballistic missile– possibly an ICBM, South Korean media reported Monday.”
Wonder where USS John Paul Jones is these days.
Keep us posted, AW1Ed.
If anything else comes up before the evening news reports, it’s always a day late.
The JMSDF Kongo Class have the Aegis fire control system and are capable of using the SM-3 to protect Japan:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kong%C5%8D-class_destroyer
The Kong class DDGs are being fitted to counter intermediate range theater ballistic missiles, sort of a sea-going Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system. Should be sufficient for their threats.
USS John Paul Jones is testing a strategic, intercontinental ballistic missile defense system, as reported in a recent post.
http://valorguardians.com/blog/?p=74331
I was reading how the JMSDF has four Kongo class destroyers – should be enough to provide coverage of the Japanese home islands that are within range of any NK missile launched at them. Plus, with THAAD (land and sea based) they should have a good defensive shield, minus any assistance provided by the Navy.
I’ve also noticed in my research into Israel’s “Iron Dome” system that South Korea has been looking into that system for at least the last five years. It seems like Iron Dome + THAAD would be a really good shield against most incoming missiles from the North.
Iron Dome can also intercept artillery rounds, correct? perhaps this is the answer to the whole “obliterate Seoul” problem.
Can, yes. Take out every Nork incoming round? I doubt it. There are (reputably) several thousand tubes pointed at Seoul. Iron Dome would likely be overwhelmed by a mass attack.
It works in Israel because relatively few rounds are fired during any particular attack.
Nikki Haley made a speech at the UN about the fact that Snookums over there in Norkiland is getting further and further out of control and wants war, and WE DON’T want it.
Blunt and straightforward in what she said. It was refreshing.
Diminutive Nork Dictator the 2nd recognized that keeping in the good graces of Russia and Red China was a good idea. Diminutive Nork Dictator the 3rd aka NDtBF is getting on their nerves by being bad for business. Although we haven’t gotten to that point yet, he’s approaching a time where his erstwhile benefactors just might tell us “He’s all yours.”
That will be a bad day to be the only fat kid in North Korea.
yeah, THAT TOW, or as i recall, the russkies were pretty good at covert assassinations as i recall..
Per the other article, which Jonn posted, the South is activating more THAAD systems.
Maybe it’s time the gloves came off. What would that little twatwaffle do if someone shot down one of his birds? Other than throw a temper tantrum, I mean, what else would he do?
Put his nukes in a container and ship them to LA
Detonate one in the North and let the wind blow fallout south
Open his borders and let his starving people flow south
Destroy Seoul with conventional artillery
Infiltrate SOF/activate sleeper cells to wreak havoc in the South
Bomb and sink the container ship on its way to LA (although nuking LA would not be a loss).
Fallout doesn’t travel as far as is thought.
His starving people would flow north into China.
He’s all about missiles and getting one off the launch pad. Seoul is an income source.
More likely to have sleeper cells in US cities with a Chinatown neighborhood. Most people can’t tell Koreans from Chinese or Japanese.
-We can’t track a supertanker heading towards a destroyer- who says we’ll know what boat it’s on?
-200k is a conservative estimate. Wait until winter when the winds are just right
-that’s why the Chinese have reinforced their border. Plus, they gives a damn if a bunch of North Koreans die (they have their own famine to ignore)
-no, he’s all about staying in power
-I can, and so can Chinese people, but that’s beside she the point. The fact is that there are sleeper cells in the south and the North has a tradition of sending SOF south
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/17/north-korean-commandos-ready-to-kidnap-americans-says-defector.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_House_raid
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea
A nuke set in San Francisco Bay would wreak havoc. Radiation, shock wave, tsunami…
Not to mention returning some degree of political sanity to California…
Contamination of the San Joaquin Valley if the wind is blowing in the right direction – what farms are running would be in danger of fallout contamination. Food prices would skyrocket of something like that happened.
Stock your pantry and freezer. Buy an extra freezer and stock that, too.
The USA paid North Korea 1.3 billion dollars or gave in aid between 1995 and 2009. Each time the aid dollars dropped off the North Koreans got feisty. Lil’l Kim is a deranged mental case just like his father. The first thing they teach you about dealing with mental cases in school is that you can’t reason with them.
I don’t believe Kim does anything including taking a piss without approval from China anyway. He is the annoying chihuahua in the Chinese living room who won’t shut up and who keeps nipping at your heels but the Chinese owners won’t control him. I think the best thing to do is completely ignore him. No “Presidential” tweets, no State Department Pronouncements, nothing. Completely ignore the little turd like you would the fat kid eating paste in school. By responding to this unflushable turd it just makes him more important in his own mind and reinforces bad behavior.
Kim isn’t crazy. We’ve just taught him over the past 60 odd years that the way to get what he wants is to use or threaten force.
He isn’t under Chinese control per se, but they enjoy the fact that he creates a dilemma for us.
The tweets and other nonsense do need to stop, but we have to make a clear, unequivocal policy statement that the use of a nuke on us, our allies, or our interests will be met with an overwhelmingly destructive response. Further missile or weapons testing will result in the cessation of all aid.
Of course, the Chinese will continue to funnel support regardless of what we do- they don’t want the humanitarian crisis to get worse. We have few effective tools to use on them, but it doesn’t really matter if we contain the Kim regime.
Kim is not crazy, and his actions make sense from his worldview. He has been taught from birth that the West in general and the US in particular is out to destroy his country and him personally. He probably doesn’t really believe all of that, but it is clear that his top priority is staying alive and in power. He thinks that having a nuke will deter us from taking him out. It is that simple. Will it work? War game the options starting with the next test. We either try to intercept or we don’t. If we try and succeed, great. If we try and fail (THAAD and Aegis have a spotty record), not so great. If we succeed, Kim would be somehwhat deterred but start looking for another delivery means- container ship, etc. If we fail, he would be a bit emboldened, and he may conclude that his threat is more credible. If we don’t try, it is still a wildcard. What’s the best outcome for the US? Next consider an actual attack. Kim launches- either against the ROK, Japan, Guam, or LA. We try to intercept, and it either succeeds or fails. What do we do? If the attack strikes home, we respond with overwhelming force using every option available- scaled, of course to the damage done. If Kim takes out a city, we would be justified in destroying a dPRK city and his means to threaten his neighbors and US interests. Remember, on the heels of a dPRK first user nuclear weapons we are justified in almost any response . We could also destroy what’s left of his economy, bury his command and control and leadership, and take out most of his ground forces, leaving him only with artillery, air, and rockets. Then we would have a sustained campaign to destroy his long shooters. Remember, they have to come out to shoot. we can either get them when the doors are open or bury them alive. Think Northern Watch but we would have free reign over the entire country. What would China do? Not much. We… Read more »
He likes to broadcast everything, especially parades. A high altitude plane dropping a single high yield bomb on Pyongyang during the parade would send a clear message. You’d just have to be sure that he was at his own parade.
The first strike option may get us what we want, but at what cost- do we win in Korea but lose in the Pacific and cede leadership in the world?
There is a lot to be said for a decapitation strike- especially if the surviving regime acquiesces. However, that is a huge risk.
Remember that it’s the old hardliners that are manipulating Kim, not the other way around. If the surviving regime doubles down, we still have a war and we are back to square one. Even if they do, the Chinese and Russians will use it against us.
I’m not completely convinced that Kim III the Fat is as rational as his father, Reddevil.
The younger Kim was raised a child of privilege. His every want and whim has been filled. My guess is that he’s spoiled brat.
Unlike his father, he’s also never seen war (Kim Jong Il was old enough to have seen the Korean War as a youngster). He thus doesn’t really know what devastation looks like.
To him, this may all be some warped “One up-upmanship” game. And from the way he keeps offing relatives and others who don’t unhesitatingly do his bidding, he apparently doesn’t like dissent.
In short: I’m not willing to put much $$$ on Kim being a rational actor. I’m not really convinced he is completely rational.
The “betting game” called nuclear deterrence only works if both sides are rational and sane. If one side isn’t, well . . . all bets are off.
True, but if one side is irrational, then the only rational solution for the sane actor is first strike.
Prisoners Dilemma is predicated on rational self serving actors.
My position is that while Kim’s worldview is clearly warped, his priorities and interests are understandable. He is very similar to Hussein or Qaddafi I’m that he simply wants to survive, preferably with his current lifestyle. His people don’t even enter into the calculation other than a means to that end.
The question is to what extent he has been manipulated, is he a sock puppet for regime hardliners (who also want to survive and stay in power at all costs, and if he really believes the propaganda or if it is a cynical, witting means to manipulate the people.
His interests are understandable? A guy whose favorite American is a 6’6″ profusely pierced, cross-dressing, washed-up basketball player?
Um…
He isn’t even close to as rational as his father was. As Nikki Haley said in her address at the UN a short while ago, he wants war.
No one else wants it, just him. During the Cold War, the Big Three (USA/USSR/Red China) played the game of deterrence because all three knew the real consequences of a nuclear war. ND:tBF doesn’t know or care about those consequences, nor does he give a crap about radiation damage, even to his own people. He only knows that it’s a Big Bomb and he’s got more than one.
If that dumbbell-shaped object in one of those photos in the linked article is a Nork thermonuclear device, we can snicker all we want to but he’s detonated at least one that we know of over this past weekend – ironically, Labor Day Weekend – as well as the earlier unconfirmed detonation in June.
If, as is speculated, the 6.3M seismic event, and its follow-on 4.1M, indicate that he did detonate a 100KT device, he isn’t fooling around. No matter how much I may snicker and point and laugh, it does NOT mean I don’t take that little bugger seriously. He is out of control at this point.
No, Kim doesn’t want war. Regardless of his favorite basketball player, he wants to stay alive and stay in power. Even he knows that he cannot survive a war, much less stay in power following a war.
He is detonating these weapons because over the past 60 years we have backed down every time the North Koreans rattled their sabers. He is the toddler that keeps screaming in the store because mom always gives in and buys the candy to avoid the tantrum.
Our choices at this point are 1) Show our resolve, refuse to accommodate, and respond with overwhelming force if attacked, or 2) Strike first.
A conventional first strike cannot ensure that we destroy his ability to respond with a nuclear warhead against us, our allies, or our interests. It would also weaken any support we have in the region. A nuclear first strike would have a better chance of eliminating his retaliatory capability, but it would definitely lose any support we have in the region and we would definitely be dealing with a nuclear response.
In other words, it is in our best interest to show resolve, refuse to accommodate, and retaliate with overwhelming force if attacked.
I wonder how many body doubles he has
They are the ones attending the parades
Where are you going to find another fat kid in North Korea?
Subtle, true, and topical. My kind of humor
You’d have to make them, sort of like “Sumo School”. Feed em up and give them a goofy haircut.
I really hate reading current NORK news, I truly do. BUT our collective attention isn’t misplaced. Thanks ex-PH2 for the news and to all for their comments. Reddevil, I hope the administration is reading your comments and/or your mind: Insightful and lucid thoughts on our noisiest threat to the present sustained lack of total war (aka “Peace” in our benighted but free press).
Wow.
A civil discussion of a controversial topic, where people disagreed respectfully and no one was called names.
I could get used to this.
It’s a strange feeling, isn’t it? No oddly misplaced person showing up keeps the atmosphere quiet and discussion is civil. We don’t all agree with each other, but we are still civil about it. Who knew?
We could coin a neologism to describe such a discussion: Larsless.