Newest Nork News

| September 4, 2017

From USA Today:  U.S. Geological Survey data showed that a magnitude-6.3 seismic event was detected Sunday in North Hamgyeong Province. Later, the the geological survey said a magnitude-4.1 event was recorded eight minutes after the initial quake, “possibly a structural collapse” caused by the larger seismic event.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/09/02/north-korea-nuclear-test-seismic-activity/629486001/

If it was that big an explosion, the yield is  now estimated at 100 kilotons. A photo in the USA Today article shows ND:tBF looking at what may or may not be the subject of his claim that he has been testing a thermonuclear device, aka a hydrogen bomb. The unconfirmed test he says he conducted in June registered as a 5.1 seismic event, which was the strongest explosion he’s carried out so far. That is if he conducted such a test. His stated objective in this case is to get a warhead tacked onto a Hwasong-14 missile, which has a longer range than the Hwasong-12 he launched last week. He’s still aiming at Guam and other US territories.

For comparison, the Hiroshima bomb was 15 KT. Nagasaki was larger at 20 KT. Tsar Bomba was 50 megatons and could be dropped from an airplane. Castle Bravo, the highest yielding thermonuclear device the US tested, was supposed to be 5 MT, but that was a miscalculation. It was actually 15MT. http://www.atomicarchive.com/History/coldwar/page06.shtml

A reality check? Once this rocket scientist gets a missile that does not go to pieces en route, the probability of his launching one or several at other countries – specifically the USofA – is high on his list of priorities. I don’t have a copy of his list of ‘things to do today’, but I’m sure he’s ticking off each test as he goes.

Why Fatty Kim da T’ird is threatening only the US is beyond me, but he is making a lot of noise. His daddy used to threaten the South, and then occasionally launch missiles and fire tank ammo at them. As others have indicated before, his conventional weaponry isn’t particularly accurate, or up to date.

His trading partner, China, is not happy with him, and hasn’t been for some time. They still have troops stationed at the Jilin border, still keeping an eye on their bullying neighbor. They’ve restricted their trading with him for several months now. His trading deal with Moscow failed.

If he’s getting parts or help from Syria or Iran, that should be looked into. No, it should be stopped altogether.  However, I’m quite sure that the current administration under the sitting president is much more on top of these things than the previous admin.

A joint bombing air exercise last week was a targeted response to Norkiland’s Hwasong-12, which cracked up and fell into the Pacific after it flew over Japan’s north island and worried people.

It’s probably the reason behind this latest explosion. He’s showing us again!

Dropping nukes on that place, as others have indicated before me, would be a waste of weaponry. The entire Korean peninsula north of the DMZ is extremely rugged and hilly. There is very little flatland north of the DMZ, which makes successful agriculture more difficult, but also presents a poor target zone for effective nukes. The nuke explosion’s damage comes from the heat and the blast wave. If it washes up a hillside or a mountain, it will fall back and incinerate the target zone again. Nukes are more effective in flatland, unless you want to make a profound statement such as: “Ours are nastier than yours are, Fat Boy.”  In addition, Fatty Kim da T’ird has been busily digging into the granite mountains of the North, to provide shelter from bombs for himself and his favorites, not those who mean nothing to him.

Maybe it’s time someone just takes the bull by the horns and shoots the next Nork test missile to shit.

Category: North Korea

38 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
AW1Ed

And if that wasn’t enough:

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/04/north-korea-reportedly-appears-to-be-readying-for-new-launch.html

“North Korea appears to be preparing to launch a ballistic missile– possibly an ICBM, South Korean media reported Monday.”

Wonder where USS John Paul Jones is these days.

HMCS(FMF) ret

The JMSDF Kongo Class have the Aegis fire control system and are capable of using the SM-3 to protect Japan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kong%C5%8D-class_destroyer

AW1Ed

The Kong class DDGs are being fitted to counter intermediate range theater ballistic missiles, sort of a sea-going Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system. Should be sufficient for their threats.

USS John Paul Jones is testing a strategic, intercontinental ballistic missile defense system, as reported in a recent post.

http://valorguardians.com/blog/?p=74331

HMCS(FMF) ret

I was reading how the JMSDF has four Kongo class destroyers – should be enough to provide coverage of the Japanese home islands that are within range of any NK missile launched at them. Plus, with THAAD (land and sea based) they should have a good defensive shield, minus any assistance provided by the Navy.

HMCS(FMF) ret

I’ve also noticed in my research into Israel’s “Iron Dome” system that South Korea has been looking into that system for at least the last five years. It seems like Iron Dome + THAAD would be a really good shield against most incoming missiles from the North.

11B-Mailclerk

Iron Dome can also intercept artillery rounds, correct? perhaps this is the answer to the whole “obliterate Seoul” problem.

Casey

Can, yes. Take out every Nork incoming round? I doubt it. There are (reputably) several thousand tubes pointed at Seoul. Iron Dome would likely be overwhelmed by a mass attack.

It works in Israel because relatively few rounds are fired during any particular attack.

The Other Whitey

Diminutive Nork Dictator the 2nd recognized that keeping in the good graces of Russia and Red China was a good idea. Diminutive Nork Dictator the 3rd aka NDtBF is getting on their nerves by being bad for business. Although we haven’t gotten to that point yet, he’s approaching a time where his erstwhile benefactors just might tell us “He’s all yours.”

That will be a bad day to be the only fat kid in North Korea.

Fyrfighter

yeah, THAT TOW, or as i recall, the russkies were pretty good at covert assassinations as i recall..

Reddevil

Put his nukes in a container and ship them to LA
Detonate one in the North and let the wind blow fallout south
Open his borders and let his starving people flow south
Destroy Seoul with conventional artillery
Infiltrate SOF/activate sleeper cells to wreak havoc in the South

Reddevil

-We can’t track a supertanker heading towards a destroyer- who says we’ll know what boat it’s on?
-200k is a conservative estimate. Wait until winter when the winds are just right
-that’s why the Chinese have reinforced their border. Plus, they gives a damn if a bunch of North Koreans die (they have their own famine to ignore)
-no, he’s all about staying in power
-I can, and so can Chinese people, but that’s beside she the point. The fact is that there are sleeper cells in the south and the North has a tradition of sending SOF south

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/17/north-korean-commandos-ready-to-kidnap-americans-says-defector.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_House_raid

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea

GDContractor

A nuke set in San Francisco Bay would wreak havoc. Radiation, shock wave, tsunami…

Poetrooper

Not to mention returning some degree of political sanity to California…

HMCS(FMF) ret

Contamination of the San Joaquin Valley if the wind is blowing in the right direction – what farms are running would be in danger of fallout contamination. Food prices would skyrocket of something like that happened.

Azygos

The USA paid North Korea 1.3 billion dollars or gave in aid between 1995 and 2009. Each time the aid dollars dropped off the North Koreans got feisty. Lil’l Kim is a deranged mental case just like his father. The first thing they teach you about dealing with mental cases in school is that you can’t reason with them.

I don’t believe Kim does anything including taking a piss without approval from China anyway. He is the annoying chihuahua in the Chinese living room who won’t shut up and who keeps nipping at your heels but the Chinese owners won’t control him. I think the best thing to do is completely ignore him. No “Presidential” tweets, no State Department Pronouncements, nothing. Completely ignore the little turd like you would the fat kid eating paste in school. By responding to this unflushable turd it just makes him more important in his own mind and reinforces bad behavior.

Reddevil

Kim isn’t crazy. We’ve just taught him over the past 60 odd years that the way to get what he wants is to use or threaten force.

He isn’t under Chinese control per se, but they enjoy the fact that he creates a dilemma for us.

The tweets and other nonsense do need to stop, but we have to make a clear, unequivocal policy statement that the use of a nuke on us, our allies, or our interests will be met with an overwhelmingly destructive response. Further missile or weapons testing will result in the cessation of all aid.

Of course, the Chinese will continue to funnel support regardless of what we do- they don’t want the humanitarian crisis to get worse. We have few effective tools to use on them, but it doesn’t really matter if we contain the Kim regime.

Reddevil

Kim is not crazy, and his actions make sense from his worldview. He has been taught from birth that the West in general and the US in particular is out to destroy his country and him personally. He probably doesn’t really believe all of that, but it is clear that his top priority is staying alive and in power. He thinks that having a nuke will deter us from taking him out. It is that simple. Will it work? War game the options starting with the next test. We either try to intercept or we don’t. If we try and succeed, great. If we try and fail (THAAD and Aegis have a spotty record), not so great. If we succeed, Kim would be somehwhat deterred but start looking for another delivery means- container ship, etc. If we fail, he would be a bit emboldened, and he may conclude that his threat is more credible. If we don’t try, it is still a wildcard. What’s the best outcome for the US? Next consider an actual attack. Kim launches- either against the ROK, Japan, Guam, or LA. We try to intercept, and it either succeeds or fails. What do we do? If the attack strikes home, we respond with overwhelming force using every option available- scaled, of course to the damage done. If Kim takes out a city, we would be justified in destroying a dPRK city and his means to threaten his neighbors and US interests. Remember, on the heels of a dPRK first user nuclear weapons we are justified in almost any response . We could also destroy what’s left of his economy, bury his command and control and leadership, and take out most of his ground forces, leaving him only with artillery, air, and rockets. Then we would have a sustained campaign to destroy his long shooters. Remember, they have to come out to shoot. we can either get them when the doors are open or bury them alive. Think Northern Watch but we would have free reign over the entire country. What would China do? Not much. We… Read more »

Reddevil

The first strike option may get us what we want, but at what cost- do we win in Korea but lose in the Pacific and cede leadership in the world?

There is a lot to be said for a decapitation strike- especially if the surviving regime acquiesces. However, that is a huge risk.

Remember that it’s the old hardliners that are manipulating Kim, not the other way around. If the surviving regime doubles down, we still have a war and we are back to square one. Even if they do, the Chinese and Russians will use it against us.

Hondo

I’m not completely convinced that Kim III the Fat is as rational as his father, Reddevil.

The younger Kim was raised a child of privilege. His every want and whim has been filled. My guess is that he’s spoiled brat.

Unlike his father, he’s also never seen war (Kim Jong Il was old enough to have seen the Korean War as a youngster). He thus doesn’t really know what devastation looks like.

To him, this may all be some warped “One up-upmanship” game. And from the way he keeps offing relatives and others who don’t unhesitatingly do his bidding, he apparently doesn’t like dissent.

In short: I’m not willing to put much $$$ on Kim being a rational actor. I’m not really convinced he is completely rational.

The “betting game” called nuclear deterrence only works if both sides are rational and sane. If one side isn’t, well . . . all bets are off.

Reddevil

True, but if one side is irrational, then the only rational solution for the sane actor is first strike.

Reddevil

Prisoners Dilemma is predicated on rational self serving actors.

My position is that while Kim’s worldview is clearly warped, his priorities and interests are understandable. He is very similar to Hussein or Qaddafi I’m that he simply wants to survive, preferably with his current lifestyle. His people don’t even enter into the calculation other than a means to that end.

The question is to what extent he has been manipulated, is he a sock puppet for regime hardliners (who also want to survive and stay in power at all costs, and if he really believes the propaganda or if it is a cynical, witting means to manipulate the people.

Poetrooper

His interests are understandable? A guy whose favorite American is a 6’6″ profusely pierced, cross-dressing, washed-up basketball player?

Um…

reddevil

No, Kim doesn’t want war. Regardless of his favorite basketball player, he wants to stay alive and stay in power. Even he knows that he cannot survive a war, much less stay in power following a war.

He is detonating these weapons because over the past 60 years we have backed down every time the North Koreans rattled their sabers. He is the toddler that keeps screaming in the store because mom always gives in and buys the candy to avoid the tantrum.

Our choices at this point are 1) Show our resolve, refuse to accommodate, and respond with overwhelming force if attacked, or 2) Strike first.

A conventional first strike cannot ensure that we destroy his ability to respond with a nuclear warhead against us, our allies, or our interests. It would also weaken any support we have in the region. A nuclear first strike would have a better chance of eliminating his retaliatory capability, but it would definitely lose any support we have in the region and we would definitely be dealing with a nuclear response.

In other words, it is in our best interest to show resolve, refuse to accommodate, and retaliate with overwhelming force if attacked.

Docduracoat

I wonder how many body doubles he has
They are the ones attending the parades

The Other Whitey

Where are you going to find another fat kid in North Korea?

Reddevil

Subtle, true, and topical. My kind of humor

Roger in Republic

You’d have to make them, sort of like “Sumo School”. Feed em up and give them a goofy haircut.

DOUGout

I really hate reading current NORK news, I truly do. BUT our collective attention isn’t misplaced. Thanks ex-PH2 for the news and to all for their comments. Reddevil, I hope the administration is reading your comments and/or your mind: Insightful and lucid thoughts on our noisiest threat to the present sustained lack of total war (aka “Peace” in our benighted but free press).

11B-Mailclerk

Wow.

A civil discussion of a controversial topic, where people disagreed respectfully and no one was called names.

I could get used to this.

Poetrooper

We could coin a neologism to describe such a discussion: Larsless.