Deja Vu All Over Again
GEN Nicholson, CDR-US Forces Afghanistan, says we need to send more troops to Afghanistan to ‘break the stalemate’ in that country. He uses the term ‘thousands’. As some of you have indicated, there is a trust level with the locals that seems to be thinner than spring ice. http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/nicholson-afghanistan-more-troops-stalemate
What I take away from reading this article is that, while the Afghans are in the fight, the expectation of them by us is that they will fight the way we do, which ignores the centuries of their history of individual tribes constantly squabbling with each other and only uniting against what they consider to be a common foe.
To be clear, I would rather not see US forces expected to carry the burden of this, but instead, to shift it entirely to the Afghans. Nicholson does point out that he believes if we pull out entirely, there would be new terrorist attacks against the US. He doesn’t specify whether he thinks they would be as external attacks, or repeats of those we’ve already had since 2001 and those in France and Belgium.
When I read this article, I felt compelled to review the history of Afghanistan, and how the people there will be friendly one minute and undermine you the next. Whether Nicholson is going with his gut or basing his opinion on info he can’t give out publicly, my reaction to it is that I do not want to see this ramp up into a war in which we do the bulk of the work.
It bankrupted the Soviet Union to try to fight in the mountains of that country. The British Army couldn’t deal with the Afghans, either . The infamous Khyber Pass stopped them cold, because it is a notorious ambush spot where, in 1842, the Afghans engaged in a massive attack on Elphinstone’s army of 4,500 British and Indian troops, plus 12,000 camp followers including women and children, killing all but one British doctor and a few Sepoys, who managed to escape to Jalalabad, and Elphinstone and a few officers who surrendered as prisoners.
In view of all of this, and the fact that tribalism also has an ancient and very stubborn hold on that place, and that the Soviets couldn’t break the deadlock, why are we there? Why does no one consider the long-term history of those people? They’ve never done anything except make war on each other, unless it’s outsiders and then they loosely unite to fight and chase off the outsiders.
I’m only trying to understand this need to keep doing the same thing over and over, with no results that go any further than frustration, higher and higher costs, and losses that we do not need to suffer. We are, in fact, chasing our tails. Why?
Category: Reality Check
I’m with you on that. There is no need to continually throw people and money into this quagmire.
A couple of thoughts:
Any strategy that does not account for their religion, beliefs, and the tribalism inherent in how they think and behave is doomed to failure. IMHO one of the recurring problem a secular-minded people have when confronting a religiously-driven culture is underestimating just how large a role religion plays in the motivation of a people.
As barbaric and imperialistic as it sounds, and also IMHO, the only way to change how Afghanistan works now is to kill at least 1/3 of the men, and impose a government and education upon them that is geared to moving them toward a Western mindset two generations from now – including a nationalist pride and recognition of freedoms as are recognized in the US.
That second is not likely to happen, I’m afraid.
The Russians (Soviets) were ultimately unsuccessful because they attempted to fight a conventional war against a guerilla insurgent force that was popular with the majority of the populace. They also lacked the technology we have now. If they had had our current technology and used Graybeard’s strategy in his second paragraph above they might have prevailed.
Hmmmm, who was it that said doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results, is insanity (or words to that effect)?
Oh, yeah. Albert Einstein.
The Russians (Soviets) were ultimately unsuccessful because they attempted to fight a conventional war against a guerilla insurgent force that was popular with the majority of the populace. They also lacked the technology we have now. If they had had our current technology and used Graybeard’s strategy in his second paragraph above they might have prevailed.
Sorry for the redundancy. Something went wrong, just like shit does in war.
That’s a feature, not a bug.
That’s okay, rgr769. When the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan, they had been there for at least 10 years. The pullout was just after a news report that Afghanistan could be termed the Soviet Union’s Vietnam.
Except for the fact that the Soviets were supplying Ho Chi Minh, the comparison was apt.
The more I see of the millenia-long history of that country, the more convinced I am that the only thing they really want from us is cash.
Cash gives them a way to acquire weapons, ammo, artillery, drones, etc. They have no interest in educating their children and making them into productive citizens, nor do they have any real interest in a centralized government like ours.
The only way to really stop this cancer from growing is to bomb the living shit out of the place, napalm the poppy fields and poison the soil so that nothing grows there for decades, and face the fact that so-called war only occurs when outsiders like the Brits, Soviets, and the US try to do something there.
Napalm the mosques, while we’re at it.
On a Friday.
Your strategy is basically how the Romans put an end to Carthage. I guess they got tired of fighting those Punic Wars. One can learn a lot from the history of the ancient world.
The Romans did go into Persia but not very far.
One legion did veer off chasing a section of the Parthian Army at the Battle of Carrhae in 536BC, after Crassus was assassinated by hos own troops at a conference with the Parthians.
But that Legion that veered off ended up in what is now western China near a place now named Liqian.
I think they found it more productive to stay out of the mountains of southern Central Asia and deal with Africa and Europe instead.
Name one product that has come out of Afghanistan that is worth keeping.
Very cheap and fine quality morphine base
Opium poppies can be raised anywhere.
One Comment:
G.T.F.O.
Fuck Ya’All.
I see no benefit in trying to fix a gotdamn ruptured septic field.
Unless you’re on board with nuking most of the entire nation and turning it to glass and a radioactive wasteland with no living creature to try to oppose us.
Then I’m totally on board with that.
Except, if you have a ruptured septic field and you do nothing, you can eventually end up in the shit.
How do you keep people that change sides at the drop of a hat united?
Radioactive ash within a Mushroom Cloud!
We pull out now and nuke it from orbit.
It’s the only way to be sure!
Historically…
Alexander the Great conquered Afghanistan
Hindu armies conquered Afghanistan
Indian armies conquered Afghanistan
Islamic armies conquered Afghanistan
And the Soviets were well on their way to total victory there until America decided to ship arms to the jihadists.
The common denomination for all victories in Afghanistan?
Extreme brutality in conquering and occupation. Extreme.
And America is not going to do that.
I fear you are correct. Alas …
We have been training the Afghans for 15 years now. Does anyone actually believe that more training is needed?
Stalemate? BS. If you fight a war for 15 years and you are losing ground, you are losing, at best.
It is past time to get out.
Why are we there? They have cool headgear, so what? They are TRIBAL. Let them kill each other. Get The Fuck Out.
With one qualifier, I think it’s time, and past time, to go.
That one qualifier is: a clear warning to them that if we experience another terrorist attack that is traceable to within the borders of Afghanistan, we will turn it into radioactive glass … and hope we have a President with the grit to do it if that time arrives.