Deja Vu All Over Again

| February 10, 2017

GEN Nicholson, CDR-US Forces Afghanistan, says we need to send more troops to Afghanistan to ‘break the stalemate’ in that country. He uses the term ‘thousands’. As some of you have indicated, there is a trust level with the locals that seems to be thinner than spring ice.   http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/nicholson-afghanistan-more-troops-stalemate

What I take away from reading this article is that, while the Afghans are in the fight, the expectation of them by us is that they will fight the way we do, which ignores the centuries of their history of individual tribes constantly squabbling with each other and only uniting against what they consider to be a common foe.

To be clear, I would rather not see US forces expected to carry the burden of this, but instead, to shift it entirely to the Afghans. Nicholson does point out that he believes if we pull out entirely, there would be new terrorist attacks against the US. He doesn’t specify whether he thinks they would be as external attacks, or repeats of those we’ve already had since 2001 and those in France and Belgium.

When I read this article, I felt compelled to review the history of Afghanistan, and how the people there will be friendly one minute and undermine you the next. Whether Nicholson is going with his gut or basing his opinion on info he can’t give out publicly, my reaction to it is that I do not want to see this ramp up into a war in which we do the bulk of the work.

It bankrupted the Soviet Union to try to fight in the mountains of that country. The British Army couldn’t deal with the Afghans, either . The infamous Khyber Pass stopped them cold, because it is a notorious ambush spot where, in 1842, the Afghans engaged in a massive attack on Elphinstone’s army of 4,500 British and Indian troops, plus 12,000 camp followers including women and children, killing all but one British doctor and a few Sepoys, who managed to escape to Jalalabad, and Elphinstone and a few officers who surrendered as prisoners.

In view of all of this, and the fact that tribalism also has an ancient and very stubborn hold on that place, and that the Soviets couldn’t break the deadlock, why are we there? Why does no one consider the long-term history of those people? They’ve never done anything except make war on each other, unless it’s outsiders and then they loosely unite to fight and chase off the outsiders.

I’m only trying to understand this need to keep doing the same thing over and over, with no results that go any further than frustration, higher and higher costs, and losses that we do not need to suffer. We are, in fact, chasing our tails.  Why?

Category: Reality Check

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Haywire Angel

I’m with you on that. There is no need to continually throw people and money into this quagmire.

Graybeard

A couple of thoughts:

Any strategy that does not account for their religion, beliefs, and the tribalism inherent in how they think and behave is doomed to failure. IMHO one of the recurring problem a secular-minded people have when confronting a religiously-driven culture is underestimating just how large a role religion plays in the motivation of a people.

As barbaric and imperialistic as it sounds, and also IMHO, the only way to change how Afghanistan works now is to kill at least 1/3 of the men, and impose a government and education upon them that is geared to moving them toward a Western mindset two generations from now – including a nationalist pride and recognition of freedoms as are recognized in the US.

That second is not likely to happen, I’m afraid.

rgr769

The Russians (Soviets) were ultimately unsuccessful because they attempted to fight a conventional war against a guerilla insurgent force that was popular with the majority of the populace. They also lacked the technology we have now. If they had had our current technology and used Graybeard’s strategy in his second paragraph above they might have prevailed.

AW1Ed

Hmmmm, who was it that said doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results, is insanity (or words to that effect)?

Oh, yeah. Albert Einstein.

rgr769

The Russians (Soviets) were ultimately unsuccessful because they attempted to fight a conventional war against a guerilla insurgent force that was popular with the majority of the populace. They also lacked the technology we have now. If they had had our current technology and used Graybeard’s strategy in his second paragraph above they might have prevailed.

rgr769

Sorry for the redundancy. Something went wrong, just like shit does in war.

Graybeard

That’s a feature, not a bug.

Graybeard

Napalm the mosques, while we’re at it.

Deplorable B Woodman

On a Friday.

rgr769

Your strategy is basically how the Romans put an end to Carthage. I guess they got tired of fighting those Punic Wars. One can learn a lot from the history of the ancient world.

1610desig

Very cheap and fine quality morphine base

ChipNASA

One Comment:
G.T.F.O.
Fuck Ya’All.
I see no benefit in trying to fix a gotdamn ruptured septic field.
Unless you’re on board with nuking most of the entire nation and turning it to glass and a radioactive wasteland with no living creature to try to oppose us.
Then I’m totally on board with that.

rgr769

Except, if you have a ruptured septic field and you do nothing, you can eventually end up in the shit.

A Proud Infidel®™

How do you keep people that change sides at the drop of a hat united?

ChipNASA

Radioactive ash within a Mushroom Cloud!

The Other Whitey

We pull out now and nuke it from orbit.

It’s the only way to be sure!

2banana

Historically…

Alexander the Great conquered Afghanistan
Hindu armies conquered Afghanistan
Indian armies conquered Afghanistan
Islamic armies conquered Afghanistan

And the Soviets were well on their way to total victory there until America decided to ship arms to the jihadists.

The common denomination for all victories in Afghanistan?

Extreme brutality in conquering and occupation. Extreme.

And America is not going to do that.

OldSoldier54

I fear you are correct. Alas …

timactual

We have been training the Afghans for 15 years now. Does anyone actually believe that more training is needed?

Stalemate? BS. If you fight a war for 15 years and you are losing ground, you are losing, at best.

It is past time to get out.

borderbill (a NIMBY/BANANA)

Why are we there? They have cool headgear, so what? They are TRIBAL. Let them kill each other. Get The Fuck Out.

OldSoldier54

With one qualifier, I think it’s time, and past time, to go.

That one qualifier is: a clear warning to them that if we experience another terrorist attack that is traceable to within the borders of Afghanistan, we will turn it into radioactive glass … and hope we have a President with the grit to do it if that time arrives.