Good Economic News? That Would Be a “No”.
Well, the latest economic figures are out. And as has been the case since January 2009, the numbers and trends . . . well, they suck.
First: the “official” unemployment rate declined last month – from 5.0% to 4.9%. That’s good, right?
Um, not really. You see, the number of US residents employed actually DECLINED last month – even though the “official” unemployment rate also declined. While approximately 43,000 people appear to have lost their jobs in October, it seems that that an additional 152,000 also simply quit looking for work during the month. So though the number of people working declined, because of how the “official” unemployment rate is calculated that number “went down”.
Yeah, that official “unemployment” rate is a wonderful measure of how well the economy is doing. Today, 43,000 fewer people are working than the previous month, and 3x that many got discouraged and quit even looking for work – and the number shows “improvement”. Go figure.
As I’ve repeatedly said, a much better statistic to look at to determine the US economy’s performance is the labor participation rate. That is defined as the fraction of the US civilian population that could work that is either working or looking for work. And that measure DID DECLINE last month – from 62.9% to 62.8%.
And in case you’re wondering, no – THAT decline is decidedly NOT good news. What that means is that more than 94,600,000 people who could be working . . . aren’t.
That’s the second-highest number in US history. The highest number occurred earlier this year, in May.
A labor participation rate of 63% or less is, to be blunt, an indicator that the US economy is in the freaking toilet. Prior to the last several years of economic hard times, the last time the US labor participation rate was 63% or lower was during April 1978 – or 38 1/2 years ago. That was during Jimmy “We Don’t Need No Steenkin’ Economy” Carter’s Administration.
The US labor participation rate was 65.7% in January 2009. From there, it declined steadily to roughly 63% range, reaching 63% in November 2013.
It’s been 63% or less ever since then – which means that the US economy has been absolutely in the crapper for a full three years now.
It’s time to ask this question: “Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?” I’m willing to bet the answer for virtually everyone is, “Oh, hell no!”
And remember this: if Clintoon’s elected POTUS next week, we’ll get at least 4 more years of the current Administration’s failed economic policies – or worse.
Category: "The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves", Economy, Liberals suck
Meaning that the vaunted (and inaccurate) U-3 figure that was 7.6 percent in January 2009, we’re we to use the same workforce utilization percentage now as then, would give us a U-3 number not of 4.9%, but of 8.8%.
And Hillary Clinton wants to put Obamanomics on steroids.
That’s like inflating a punctured balloon, isn’t it?
And the noise that goes along with it.
Correction to last: January 2009 U-3 was 7.8 percent. BUT still underscores points made above.
In the last 3 years, I have been laid off 3 times. My current job pays the same amount that the first job paid when I retired in 2004. I am earning $30,000 less than what I did in 2013. But all that matters to this fucking administration is that I am employed. Fuck you obama.
All that matters to them is that you send in as much of YOUR money as they can lay their hands on, and then give you back what they think you “deserve”, all in the interests of “fairness”.
I’ve run into too many people not much older than me who have finally had enough, said, “Fuck it!” and are retiring to get what they can, while they can still get it.
Do those numbers include all the new “workers” that are flooding across our borders to join the work force?
You mean the ones flooding the underground job market and keeping wages low?
Something like 15 years ago, it was estimated that somewhere on the order of 30 percent of the workforce in Los Angeles County was paid in cash–i.e., illegals, day laborers, etc.
This of course meant no taxes were taken out, no SS, state, federal, workers comp, nothing.
I can only imagine that number has gotten worse since then, and the number of folks nationwide who work “under the table” would likely either cause you to pass out or spit your teeth in rage.
After all, rules are for suckers.
I have less problem with that than I do folks able to work getting a check from the state/Federal government – or other free stuff, like groceries or rent subsidies – simply for breathing, SEA. At least the folks working “under the table” are doing something productive and gainful.
I’m not condoning either practice. But I find one far more objectionable than the other.
You wouldn’t be so supportive when you see that they not only don’t pay taxes, but get a shitload of bennies on top of it–to the point their disposable income far outstrips mine.
I’ve actually witnessed guys quitting their jobs before they hit a certain income level and lost their qualification for Section 8, SCHIP, EBT, Medicaid, EIC, etc., and then loaded up their brand new $60,000 F-350 with shit I can’t even begin to afford from Market Basket (think steak tips, shrimp, etc.)
Case in point–dude bragging about how he got a $9K federal refund when he only paid in $2K in taxes that year. And STILL gets all the bennies on top. I think that was the year I ended up paying nearly $30K and still had to kick in another $3-4K at tax time that year.
So no, the Obama policies not only tax us more, they create incentives to NOT perform, at least not on paper.
Exactly. THAT is the 3000kg turd floating in the punch bowl.
Illegal aliens are damaging our economy in many ways. Including taking all the entry level jobs that used to go to high school kids getting their first jobs.
Not just illegals, OS. Unless you count the fourth-generation French-Canadians up in northern Maine, NH, and Vermont.
Imagine them outside the local Home Depot as day laborers, going, “Shovel off your roof, eh?”
Those numbers don’t include self-employed people, do they? Someone who has a very small business, e.g., selling stuff through Etsy, won’t be reported as a payroll statistic, but they’ll still be running a business and paying taxes on the income from it.
According to the BLS, “People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week.” (emphasis added) So, yes – it appears small business owners working out of their homes are counted as “employed” if they make any income over the course of the year for any week in which they work 1 hour a week or more in support of their home business. http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#employed The intent of BLS labor statistics is to characterize everyone in the US who is not (a) in the armed forces, or (b) institutionalized into one of three bins: employed, unemployed, or “not in the US civilian labor force”. Only the first two are used to calculate the official unemployment rate; the last category is not. Unfortunately, excluding the last category (“not in the US civilian labor force”) is problematic and hugely misleading. While that category includes those who’ve retired, are disabled, or who have voluntarily opted not to work (stay at home parents, full-time students w/o employment), it also includes those who’ve become discouraged and quit looking for work – but who are nonetheless willing to work if they can find a job. If enough people in a given month get discouraged, say “Eff this,” and quit looking for work, you can indeed see the unemployment rate go down – even if overall employment declines during the same period. Precisely that is what happened last month. A second problem is that BLS also counts those who are underemployed as being employed – e.g., those who are involuntarily working part-time because their employer has put them involuntarily on part-time status and cut their hours from 40/week to 8 or 16 hours. (Try telling someone who’s been cut from full-time to 1 day per week that they’re in the same category as their work buddy who – for whatever reason (e.g., seniority – didn’t get cut to part time.) If you want a single number that’s reasonably meaningful, look at the US labor participation rate. That tells you what fraction of the US civilian workforce is actually… Read more »
Okay, but the self-employed only counts if there is enough income from the business to meet the minimum taxable rate.
As you said in your other comment, the people working for cash/under the table are contributing more than the welfare sloggers, but they aren’t paying into SS or Medicare or anything else.
I would say they’re even worse, because not only are they drawing benefits, they don’t (maybe never) paid into the system. Lots of people who have drawn benefits have at least paid something in first.
Basically, I’m paying double what I should because of folks who are working, but cheating the system.
At this point I am just happy that every aspect of human activity is not (yet) regulated by D.C.
Give ’em time.
The Holy Grail of the Progressive/Left, IMO … because, of course they know what is best for us, the troglodyte workin’ Leroys of America.
“The S&P 500 index finished lower on Friday for the ninth-straight session, its longest stretch of declines since December 1980.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500s-9-day-losing-streak-longest-since-december-1980-2016-11-04
Thanks, Barry!