The DoD behavioral research lab
Chief Tango sends us a link from Military.com in which they report that the social justice warriors are hard at work turning the troops into lab rats for their latest experiment; predicting crime. They want to use soldiers in order to crunch numbers and determine which will commit violent crimes;
The researchers drew on 38 databases containing information on 446 variables for each solider who served between 2004 and 2009. During that period, 5,771 soldiers committed murder, manslaughter, kidnapping, robbery or other violent felonies. (Domestic violence and sex crimes were not included in the study because research suggests that they follow risk patterns that are distinct from other types of offenses.)
Using a technique known as machine learning, researchers looked for patterns among the violent offenders and used what they found to create a risk model.
[…]
The highest-risk group — just 5 percent of the total population of male soldiers — accounted for 36 percent of the crimes perpetrated by men, the researchers found. Each year, on average, 15 of every 1,000 of those men committed a violent offense. That was more than seven times the overall rate for male soldiers.
The highest-risk female soldiers were responsible for 33 percent of crimes perpetrated by women, who overall were about half as likely as men to commit violent offenses.
The algorithm developed to assess their risk differed slightly from the one for men.
Well, it’s funny that someone would say women are different than men in this regard, but there you are. The researchers assure us that the resultant identified soldiers using their algorithm won’t be pre-arrested, but rather counseled to avoid the crimes they might commit. If you look at the things that trigger warnings, you’ll notice that many of those things are reasons that the Army kick people to the street. And you know what else? In the civilian world, they call some of it “racial profiling”;
Those most at risk were young, poor, ethnic minorities with low ranks, disciplinary trouble, a suicide attempt and a recent demotion, according to a report published Tuesday in the journal Psychological Medicine.
Try that in the Real World. Many of the problem children who commit crimes and display this behavior bring it with them from their pre-Army days and somehow they slipped through the recruitment net designed to prevent them from joining. This seems to me to be yet another way to cure the ills of society by using defense dollars. And a jobs program for those in the Psychology field.
Category: Army News
*Snuggles with my DD214 which protects me from this kind of shit.*
:rolls: 😀
Well, C. Long seems to have some ideas on why the military should “fix” individuals that were identified in the study…
“Racial profiling” in the military… what next? “Thought crimes”…
Yeah, that’s what I found lacking in the study. What was the bottom line: More school shootings, or less?
I see an ARCOM in someone’s future.
“We don’t think you’re quite hooah enough, so we’re going to send you to a re-dying camp until you’re a loyal PATRIOT again.”
Good luck with data crunching, but there is always the “x” factor, and it cannot be simulated. God knows I tried…
In summary, Global Warming.
I guess that now that not even micro-agression will be allowed in the military. Hell of a way to fight a war.
If you look at the things that trigger warnings, you’ll notice that many of those things are reasons that the Army kick people to the street. And you know what else? In the civilian world, they call some of it “racial profiling”
Those most at risk were young, poor, ethnic minorities with low ranks, disciplinary trouble, a suicide attempt and a recent demotion…
I’m grateful that they were at least looking at those data. The PC thing would be to ignore them (except maybe the “low rank”…and then suggest we could stop crime by promoting people faster).
At least it beats the old trick — take violence statistics largely driven by “young, poor ethnic minorities” in inner cities, then show pictures of rural whites at gun shows, to imply the one comes from the other.
I’m extra grateful that they kept the sex stuff out, as meaningful numbers on that are not now available (because Congress, the upper echelons, and U.S. higher education have gone wacko on the subject…not necessarily in that order). If they’re going to study that, better to study it separately.
In short, compared to what we often see, this study is actually sane. I suspect the “counseling” thing was the hook to get the Defense dollars. And won’t do any more good than the counseling they’re getting already…which, mind you, may be doing a lot of good.
At least it beats the old trick — take violence statistics largely driven by “young, poor ethnic minorities” in inner cities, then show pictures of rural whites at gun shows, to imply the one comes from the other.
One of those things is helpful to the proggie narrative, while the other is not. And progs are all about advancing the narrative.
Too true. It makes me glad that these study results, at least, have not been bent to fit that narrative.
(Though the proposed solution comes straight out of it…these poor whelps have just not been given enough counseling…psychological rather than NCO style…)
“Those most at risk were young, poor, ethnic minorities”.
Okay, cool. So lets go to the general population of the same at risk group and run the numbers in the gangs, the inner city self made and self sustaining ghettos and the welfare roles and see what they say. My guess is they will be far higher. It’s easy to order troops to participate in this crap and then “counsel” them on things they may never do or even have thought of doing. But to do this is the same group mentioned of the general population would herald “racial profiling” to the high heavens. That’s just doing the testing by the way. Then consider trying to counsel these “yoots” on their possible future crimes, leaving aside of course the rap sheet they have already accumulated.
So will this be done using Military Personnel or will it be done by Contractors that have bribed the right pols and bureaucrats?
More men than women? Well, that is just SEXIST PROFILING!! I object to that. I will NOT believe for one second that women are less qualified for this position than men unless they can prove it!
That’s all I have to say.
For some reason, I was hoping to read something like “…sex crimes were not included in the study because senior and general officers follow risk patterns that are distinct from other types of offenses, and they have different proclivities than enlisted men and women, therefore…”
“Those most at risk….” Most at risk? Most at risk? Are they joking? Those who are at risk are the people who have the misfortune of coming into contact with these darlings.
The profiling of criminals is nothing new but it’s not something the do-gooders want to soil themselves with, by and large. There is a ready made strategy for curbing subsequent violent crime but it’s not pc. The profile is race + age + priors. Best predictors in the world. And since most of these sweethearts are on parole or probation damn near permanently, the trick is to nail them every time they so much as fail to say “Bless you” when someone sneezes. It takes coordination and determination among two branches of gov’t and at least two executive agencies. One of these days, perhaps, some city or state will employ this strategy and good things will happen.
There are a bunch of people around here that seem to have an algorithm. Can I now mount an Algorithm Defense if I display criminal conduct?
I am in deep shit here. I got that XX chromosome, PTSD Denial, was exposed to Toxic Water, Asbestos, a couple hundred shots civilian doctors can’t identify, Tinnitus, I don’t love Jesus and now my Algorithm is all phucked up.
If they dont do something about this the Marine Corps will be full of people prone to aggressive behavior. If Marines are deployed and the start killing people and breaking things its all their fault for not adjusting their Al Gore Rhythm.
So, I guess “they” saw that movie, where the potential perps were I/D’d and put in suspended animation? Is life imitating “art” (whoever he is)?
Anyhow, apparently another feel good boondoggle, as folks have pointed out, to line the pockets of the “helping” industries, and their handmaidens.
That will be some entertaining PowerPoint presentation to be sure….
The truth of this “algorithm” lies in the wording if they really wish to figure it out….young males between 15-35 commit most of the crime in the US, not surprisingly they will commit most of the crime in the military as well, what is interesting if one takes this to a more uncomfortable direction is the realization that in larger urban models being black or hispanic is more likely to make you a perp or a victim of violence. In New York City 90% of murderers and their victims are black or hispanic low income residents.
So it would be quite interesting to see how much money was spent to ascertain that those with bleak economic prospects and a miserable home life are susceptible to joining gangs and selling drugs or fighting over drug turf….
I’m pretty sure most of us here knew that without needing a $50 million dollar study and a fancy set of mathematical probability calculations.
“Private, the bean counters analysed a shit ton of data from the entire Army, don’t ask me how….but anyway, your name came up and we have to send you to counseling with a head shrinker.”
“OK sir. When I apply for my clearance …”
“The military has extraordinary data systems,” he said. “There is an ability to do this targeting in a way that can’t be done anywhere else.”
Question: Why are they doing this? Answer: Because they can.
My bet is that once they “perfect” their predictive algorithms, this type of data analyses will be migrated to the civilian side under the banner of “protecting you”. Some of the data already exists, and they will figure out a way to collect more. Get laid off, fired, demoted…big brother wants to know and the collective has an interest in knowing. Electronic patient records, come on down! Etc.