Tension Ratchets Up in the Eastern Ukraine
It appears that the situation in the eastern Ukraine is getting quite tense.
The current acting president of the Ukraine, Oleksandr Turchynov, has announced the beginning of what he termed “anti-terrorist” operations at various locations in the eastern Ukraine. Those targeted by Ukrainian forces in these operations appear to be Ukrainian militias with pro-Russian sympathies that have occupied Ukrainian government facilities.
The Ukraine government alleges Russia is behind the unrest in the eastern Ukraine. Dissidents in the eastern Ukraine are indeed demanding closer ties to Russia and flying the Russian flag at “liberated” facilities, so the allegation is plausible.
However, the eastern Ukraine has historically tended to look north to Moscow vice west to Europe, and has far closer ties to Moscow than does the western Ukraine. It is also the portion of the Ukraine that most strongly supported the former Russian-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted by pro-Western demonstrations earlier this year. There thus may well be a large element of local discontent in the eastern Ukraine with pro-Western policies being dictated by the current Kiev government.
At least two have died in the eastern Ukrainian unrest so far. The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has called the Ukraine “on the brink of civil war”. Russia has thousands of troops near the eastern borders of the Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government has asked for the deployment of UN Peacekeeping troops in the eastern Ukraine. However, with Russia holding veto power over UN Security Council resolutions, the prospect of that happening is almost certainly essentially nil.
It looks like this could indeed get ugly if someone guesses wrong. Hopefully we (the US) will have the good sense to stay the hell out of this, militarily.
Category: Foreign Policy, Military issues
“It looks like this could indeed get ugly if someone guesses wrong. Hopefully we (the US) will have the good sense to stay the hell out of this, militarily.”
Putin’s forces are poised to rush in an quell the unrest should it be even close to a civil war. You are correct Hondo. Hopefully, following Obama’s lost balls in every other matter he will follow suit here and stay out. We do not need American and Russian troops facing one another. Just writing that out sends shivers up my back.
I honestly don’t think the US military currently has the force projection capability to do anything meaningful. Which in this case is a good thing. The Ukraine is a tar baby waiting to happen and the US would be wise to play B’rer Rabbit.
I believe that was part of the purpose of the overspending of this administration.
Russian jets buzzing a US destroyer in the Black Sea – both sides need to ratchet this down.
Our reporters managed to get another interview today with Vladimir Putin, despite his busy schedule.
The time was 2:51 PM (Moscow) when the Russian president stepped out of his personal recreation room with tin snips in one hand and a butane torch in the other. He was visibly annoyed as he removed his electrician’s gloves and blood-spattered apron and sat, shirtless, on the elegant chair from the Romanovs’ Winter Palace.
The muffled screams of a man with a Chechen accent begging for death could be heard through the wall, but President Putin ignored it. When asked about the Ukrainian government’s claims of Russian involvement in the continuing unrest, he took a swig of vodka and dismissively said, “Turchynov was clearly elected based on his keen grasp of the blatantly obvious.”
Our reporters followed up with a question about Russian plans regarding the evolving situation in eastern Ukraine. Putin responded with, “Why do you keep asking these dumbass questions? I haven’t exactly been subtle about my intention to rebuild the Soviet Empire. It’s really simple: once the shooting starts, the Ukrainian loyalist get worn out by the rebels, so by the time we roll in it’s just a tune-up fight for my guys. Do I really have to explain this? Because we did it, like, ten times in World War Two. Are we done here? Because you may have noticed that I’m a little busy.”
At that, Putin rose from his multi-million-dollar gold-inlaid antique chair, picked up his gloves, apron, and tools, and walked back into his presidential rec room. On the way out, one of our reporters overheard an FSB officer say that they would need to get more Chechens, given the president’s current level of irritation.
The Other Whitey…LMAO I always love the Chechen updates!!!
“The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has called the Ukraine “on the brink of civil war”.”
That is EXACTLY what Russia is trying to foment. Then they have some excuse to come rolling in there under the guise of protecting ethnic Russians from violence. It’s a lever they’ve used before, and do not hesitate to use again.
And the US has the three stooges involved in this: 0bama, Kerry and Powers. God help us.
As much as I’m not a fan of this administration (and believe me, if you’ve seen some of the stuff I’ve written, you will know what I mean), I doubt there’s anything we could have done or should do differently as it stands now.
That said… Putin and crew have the utmost disdain for this administration. His facial expressions during interviews with the Russian press give away the utter contempt he has for the current CiC. And Kerry is such a friggin’ tool… Oh dear gawd.
Nicki: have to say I agree. When there is nothing one can do that can positively affect a situation, sometimes it’s best just to keep quiet and not draw attention to that fact.
That’s the primary problem I have with the current Administration’s conduct here. They’re making a public issue (and raising the proverbial ruckus) when the whole world knows that what we can/are willing to do is found between “jack” and “squat”.
What the Administration needs to do IMO is voice disapproval, and leave it at that. Pretty much anything else we do or say either will make us look like fools – or worse.
I think we’ve been doing pretty much that, other than placing economic sanctions on those who are responsible for fomenting the crap that went on in Crimea. I will say there are those in this administration who are really itching to do something big, but I don’t think that’s a wise idea at this time. This is what the Russians are counting on. They’re doing just enough not to implicate themselves in anything illegal and are waiting for the rest of the world to react disproportionately so they can play victim.
Despite what the leadership is telling you in the press, Russia’s economy has been kicked in the nuts. Sanctioning Rossiya was pretty damn awesome, if I do say so myself. Kudrin has been pretty vocal about the negative impacts of the sanctions so far, and Russia has been forced to dip into its sovereign wealth funds to get resources for its little adventure. During the crash of 2008, they had WAY more in their rainy day funds than they do now, and that wasn’t enough. These days the two funds they have are much below the threshold they set for themselves. I can’t imagine what will happen should another recession hit them. Well… I lie. Yes, I can. 🙂
Perhaps. I do think sending US warships into the Black Sea was perhaps ill-advised, timing-wise, but maybe that will work out OK.
Forgot to ask earlier: are any relatives/friends you might still have in that general area all doing OK?
Hondo, luckily I have no relatives or friends in the area. My dad has some friends from school and some old Army buddies who still live in L’viv and random areas in Ukraine, but from everything he tells me, they’re doing just fine. 🙂
Good to hear that. Sorry I didn’t ask about that earlier.
Hondo, no worries. I hardly ever think of the place anymore. Anyone who matters to me is here. My dad is a bit more vested, but he’s older too.
Putin could march into Ukraine, sit down, and declare all of Ukraine under his control and no one would do a damn thing about it. The Europeans won’t. NATO won’t. The UN sure as fuck won’t. The US can’t. So; what are we talking about?
I wouldn’t go that far. Really. The Europeans have a lot of economic interests in Russia, but I wouldn’t say they’re not going to do anything. As for us… not our fight, really, but if he pulls a similar stunt with one of the NATO allies, we can legally, under Article 5, go in there and kick Putin in the nutsack so hard, he’ll be gargling his own testicles.
I am concerned that this administration will do something in an attempt to give 0bama some machismo standing. The results will not be nice.
There are those pushing for that, yes. But I don’t think we’re there yet.
*Yet*
Well, yeah… this type of situation could take literally minutes to change.
Nicki…since you are pretty well versed on Russian matters I have a question. Do the European nations depend heavily on Russia for their natural gas?
Sparks, they very much do. Close to 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia, if I remember correctly.
US News & World Report says it’s 30 percent. Probably a bit higher than that. Maybe something in the middle, but a significant amount, nonetheless.
Nicki…Thank you. I am not a World Affairs expert at all. But I see a true, vested interest in the European nations saying absolutely NOTHING about what Putin does. I may be wrong too.
Sparks, it’s not just the natural gas. There are other economic interests, military contracts, etc. involved here. The Europeans will require a certain amount of pressure to really take action, I think.
🙂
This looks like a ‘flex the muscles’ move more than anything else, like a test to see if the old USA v. USSR might be revived. I read last week that Vlad’s more interested in being the Big Cheese (for Russia, of course) than in reviving the Cold War.
It does not mean that a prolonged course of military action can’t or won’t happen, but I don’t think it will now. Maybe over the next 30 to 40 years, something will blow up.
It looks like flexing the muscles and kicking the 5-gallon metal cans to see what happens.
And I still recall that smirk that Vlad had on his face in that off-the-cuff remark that bodaprez made ‘after the election, I’ll have more flexibilty’. I think he figured out then just how far he could kick the big can and now he’s working it.
I would concur, Ex-PH2. I think Russia has written off many/all of the non-Russian states in the former USSR and doesn’t want them back. I think this is more a “return Russians to Russia” endeavor.
Borderland areas with substantial ethnically-Russian populations may be a different story. Crimea was 60% ethnic Russian. Parts of the eastern Ukraine has largish ethnic Russian minorities. Ditto the northern fringe of Kazakhstan, and maybe parts of Belarus as well.
I don’t think we’ll see a grab for any of the Baltics (NATO) or the central Asian states (not Russian, Islamic). And I don’t think we’ll see any overt grab to take over either Belarus or the entire Ukraine. But I would not be surprised to see pressure – perhaps accompanied with threats of force – demanding border adjustments to return some of those areas with large ethnic Russian populations to Russia.
Agreed. Putin has learned from Hitler in the sense that randomly invading countries willy-nilly will only end with the destruction of his own country. He is being clever, he picking the areas that he wishes to be Russian again and would serve his purposes the best.
I would expect a great deal of border rearrangement in the next couple of years, assuming that we do not get a president in 2016 that stands against Russia and pushes them until they break, rather than us breaking.
I do not wish to see Reagan’s work reversed in a single administration, and I hope that the next president or how many future presidents it takes to take up the great man’s mantle and finally free Russia from its ex-Soviet chains slowly pulling the entire country down into oblivion.
I’m sorry, Nicki, I should have said that Europe will send a strongly worded message.
Old Trooper…It’s already begun. The French have issued the first sanction. They have promised to export only their most inferior table wines to Russia. 😀
Hope it’s just puffing up the feathers. Talked to some friends back in my motherland, Poland… Tension’s rising there too.
Well, my sister-in-law is over in Moscow right now. Plus, the brother-in-law, along with the niece and nephew are heading over there this Summer to live for 3-5 years, so all this posturing and chest thumping concerns me a little bit.
Old Trooper On the serious side. I do hope and pray the best for your relatives there and those going.