Crime down & gun sales up
My new crush at the Washington Times, Emily Miller, writes today about the distinct intersection of a falling rate of violent crimes in the country and proliferation of legal gun ownership;
Last week, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) announced that violent crime decreased 4 percent in 2011.
[Andrew Arulanandam, spokesman for the National Rifle Association] pointed out that only a handful of states had concealed-carry programs 25 years ago, when the violent-crime rate peaked. Today, 41 states either allow carrying without a permit or have “shall issue” laws that make it easy for just about any noncriminal to get a permit. Illinois and Washington, D.C., are the only places that refuse to recognize the right to bear arms. The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence did not respond to requests for comment.
Yeah, gee, I wonder why the Brady folks don’t have a comment. But this is why I have a crush on Ms. Miller, it’s paragraphs like this;
Mr. Obama could honestly take credit for this jobs program, economic boost and the reduction in violent crime that has followed the spike in gun ownership on his watch. Instead, he’s silent about his greatest positive accomplishment.
Category: Guns
Valid correlation…..or not?
Gun sales are WAY up.
Take it from someone who works the night shift in a gun factory. We can’t build them fast enough.
I still want Obama to do down in inglorious defeat this November, but if he doesn’t, the consolation prize is four more years of job security.
I’ve even heard some guys talking about voting for the guy even though they aren’t too hot on him, just to keep the good times rolling. I advised against it.
I have always generally believed…an armed society is a polite society.
Here’s how Michael Moore would spin it.
Crime is down, but people are so paranoid that they keep buying guns anyway. Paranoid lunatics with guns…scary. And what do they need them for? Crime is way down, thanks to, uhm, midnight basketball.
That was how he presented the statistic in Bowling for Columbine. Except for the midnight basketball part, which I added.
Joe, I think there is a correlation. Chicago continues to have a whole lot of violent crime, as does DC. The tying bind is as Jonn says; they don’t like the law abiding citizens to have guns, which leaves the criminals to have a soft target environment to prey upon. Bloomberg (the idiot) continues to believe that the polpulation can be protected by police, who show up to write the report, but aren’t there to stop the crime from being committed in the first place. i don’t blame the police, because there aren’t enough of them to follow each person around, and there shouldn’t be. The old adage still applies today “when seconds count, the police are only minutes away”. Plus, an unarmed citizenry are called subjects.
CI: I see you’ve read some Heinlein in the past, too. (smile)
The most important piece of information I took from this post was googleing Emily Miller and seeing her pictures. My day is complete.
The results make sense, but I don’t trust OpEds on principle. I agree with Joe: has there actually been a confirmation of the whole causation/correlation bit?
Depends on who you read… to the NRA it’s an iron-clad link, to the Brady crowd it happens to be a statistical aberration that happens to have continued for many years now.
The question of the day is not whether someone has read Heinlein – but knowing which novel that quote comes from. Hint – it ain’t Starship Troopers… it’s ‘way more politically incorrect, like “Sixth Column” is now.
Believe it first appears in “Beyond This Horizon”, but if I recall correctly it’s also used in a number of other of his works.
Who’d a thunk it? Define “victim” and extrapolate.
Think that makes you pretty well-read in Heinlein terms-some of his books aren’t widely read any more. My congratulations!
(Emily Miller)
“. . . the communications director to then-House Majority Whip Tom DeLay.”
Hmm — HAMMER Handle, so to speak — Good Lady !!
The drop in crime is a correlation, but not causation. Defending one’s self and family from Obama’s government is causation.
Most criminals are cowards and lack any kind of handgun training. That’s why a citizen who’s armed and well trained and take on most bad guys…and win.
the trick is to have a gun, and make the bad guy wet his pants when he sees it.
However, in CA the violent crime rate continues to be out of control because most citizens in the high crime areas can’t pack a gun legally…so only the crooks have guns…and the few cops.
For #2 above, I don’t know what gun factory you work at, but I hope the American made guns can keep the quality up… too many brands that used to be great are so crappy I can’t recommend them to a customer in my shooting classes.
Whether correlation is causation is largely irrelevant, honestly. John Lott’s book, “More Guns, Less Crime” says (roughly) that law enforcement presence is a bigger factor. The key for me is that it disproves the frequently made claim that better availability of guns will inevitably lead to MORE crime; it just ain’t so. Since that is the frequently-made justification for stricter gun control laws, it follows that they are ineffective at achieving their primary (stated) purpose.
Sig, as Great Britain shows difficult access to guns definitely does not reduce violent crime. I personally only care about the crime (or lack thereof) rates with legally obtained firearms.
Michigan nearly doubles it’s CPL carriers every year for the last four.
I think this has to do with large areas of the state that can no longer afford police and have closed their local departments. State coverage is at best 90 minutes. Meth labs in the country areas here are out of control.
Ann, I cannot remember the name of the study. so, go to the FBI site. They have a map of the of the USA tat shows the States with “shall issureThe states and the drop in volient crime . the crooks want sheep,not armed victims. Generally just Producing a firearm sends the crook on the run. Check the NRA Armed Citizen report. Heilemn also promotes the wearing of Short dress because of all the weapons that can be hid (TSO)
http://freebeacon.com/more-killed-in-chicago-this-year-than-afghanistan/
heh…
@Joe Thanks, will do! Heilemn sounds like an excellent zombie apocalypse teammate… I tend to prefer reading the actual studies before policy groups get their paws on them.
No. 14 DaveO is correct.
– STOP a crime (cause)
– (Many examples)
– Add all
– Total is lower than before, thus Effect (Total) & Cause
(or, Cause & Effect = Causation)
Oh, I forgot — B.O. Gov’t = crime
in my above explanation .
Nationwide violent crime rate drop 4%? Sort of makes you wonder what the actual state by state violent crime rates are since the gubermint tends to round their numbers up or down.
Um, Joe #1; That’s a clown question, bro.
Jonn, not necessarily. Do we have any way to see whether: the firearm increase is with those who didn’t have any guns previously, the communities where these gun increases are occurring, the crime rates for before and after in those communities, are there increased incidents of citizens fending off crimes, and some comparisons to national trends in law enforcement funding and tactics that might also account for the downward trend.
I’d love to see some surveys in the prison populations, but criminals aren’t exactly known for their honesty especially when it could impact their ‘business.’
I bet every thing I own that if Chicago, DC and NYC allowed CCw for all legal citizens,their murder/robbery rate would fall fast. Any takers? As far as the UK, they have told their Bobbies to use creative writing for home invasion and armed robbery not to read as such.Ask the Aussies about their skyrocketing home invasions.
I forgot to add that it would also help if we could find the before and after first time offender rates for those areas since they haven’t got criminal records and time ‘invested’ in that sort of lifestyle.
National case-control study of homicide offending and gun ownership: http://www.catb.org/~esr/guns/gunslott.html
Ann, whether the Brady types want to admit it or not, there IS a direct correlation between strictness of gun laws/CCW restrictions and violent crime rates.
As previously mentioned, an armed society is a polite society–one never knows when one might have to back up his words (or in this case, their actions) with their life.
Sparky, I wholeheartedly agree. My unscientific anecdote is that crime will definitely drop in my neighborhood should someone make the mistake of entering my house uninvited. I just don’t want to definitively say the reported crime drop is directly a result of increased gun ownership without some closer analysis.
A lot of the anti-gun mindset comes from westerns: movies and books.
The lesson the Bradyist (lets just call them anti-lifers, because they don’t want folks to actually have a pleasant life to live) learns from a western is more guns equals more bigger gunfights.
A cursory review of history shows a larger equation: more guns, fewer and smaller gunfights, and a crapload of bad guys killed. The number of folks killed by gunfight was less than then number killed by hanging.
All of which proves Bradyists are weird anti-lifers: only folks around who can watch a John Ford western and root for the cactus.
Dave, they’re probably afraid that if someone shot a burglar they would get thrown several feed back through a window and crush a nun carrying a puppy while taking orphans to the park.
Crime is down? I don’t think so. With his redistribution of the wealth scams like Pigford II and Obamacare, Obama and his slimy cronies are stealing money on such a massive scale that until that con artist got elected, such criminal behavior would have have been unthinkable and unimaginable. The ONLY respect in which crime is down is that thieves don’t have to steal anymore because this administration and Congress and attorneys are stealing for them. Slimy politician and slimy attorneys have become the new Mafia.
Does anyone remember the New York City “Subway Vigilante” from 1984-Bernhard Goetz? Fired unlicensed revolver to injure/subdue 4 youths who were allegedly threatning him. Ignited huge national media discussion about legality of gun carry/firing. Mr Goetz spent time in jail after long drawn out media circus trial.
Devtun, nobody here has ever argued for unlicensed concealed carry. An important part of getting your CCW permit is training in safety, responsibility, and the legalities of the use of a CCW. Considering how dangerous New York City was in the early 1980s, his age, and the epidemic of subway muggings in particular I have no sympathy for some admitted criminals ganging up on an old man.
My best friend grew up in New Jersey, and spent much of his time in New York City during the crime wave of the 1980’s. If at all possible nobody used the Subway, went beyond sight of the street in Central Park, or went beyond the immediate area of Times Square. Harmless panhandlers don’t surround people when ‘asking’ for money.
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I don’t either. I’m more focused on the emotional impact of the man. I recall was victim of mugging, than I believe applied for license & turned down. Mr. Goetz was determined not to become another victim-he paid the price with jailtime
in the end. The legal portion of this incident I remember was incredible media spectacle with legal eagles parsing every word, body language, and motive under the spotlights.
Mr. Goetz was fortunate not have killed any of the alleged assailants. BTW I don’t think he was super old-late 30’s early 40’s maybe? Grandpa now:)
[…] Score – Meaningful Metric, or Misleading BS? June 20th, 2012 This article by Jonn and the comments to same got me to thinking about the subject of gun control again. It […]
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The NYPD was hampered by major corruption for decades, but was brought to national attention in early 70’s lead by Det. Frank Serpico & movie Serpico. So NYC had overwhelming crime problem & police too often hindered than helped. Taking payoffs was so common that it probably desensitized the shame
/ guilt mechanism. More time spent scheming for next big pay day than protecting NYC residents. The honest cops were just outnumbered and overruled. The Blue Code of Silence ensured good cops kept quiet. How must that have felt? And NYC residents can’t trust cops farther than they could throw them. I bet its lot better these days in NYPD.