Super Bowl Prediction

Those of you who know me know that I am a borderline fanatic about sports. I mean all kinds of sports; everything from NCCA football to MLB Baseball to Australian dick wrestling. Suffice it to say that I love sports.

There is not a bigger single sporting event in the United States than the Super Bowl and I feel compelled to offer my insights. Hopefully I won’t get beat up as bad as I did with my 2010 Senate election predictions.

Last I checked the Colts were favored by 5 ½. That’s significant because it’s less than one touchdown. Given Super Bowl history a one TD swing from the kickoff line is hardly an upset worth noting.

The biggest point spread upsets were back in the day when odds makers still couldn’t manage a spoonful of respect for teams from the JV AFL. In SB IV the KC Chiefs were laying 12 points against the vaunted Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s Purple People Eaters however laid a massive egg and went into halftime down 16-0. While the Vikings didn’t do a very good job eating people in the first half, Hank Stramm’s Chiefs did a masterful job of eating the clock in the second half.

The result was a 23-7 victory for the Chiefs and a whopping 28 point swing from the line.

Of course the most famous upset was SB III when Namath and the Jets defeated the Baltimore Colts 16-7. The Colts entered that game with an advantage in the spread by 18 points and even 20 points on some Vegas lines. The Jet victor translated to a 27 point swing from the kickoff line.

So how does the underdog pull off an upset in the biggest game of the year? The answer to that is fairly simple if you look at the games where it happened.

In SB IV the heavily favored Vikings turned the ball over five times; (3 interceptions and 2 fumbles) while the Chiefs turned it over only once. The other key to that game was being able to sustain a drive and thus keep the Vikings offense on the bench. The Chiefs converted on 7 of 15 third downs and stymied the Vikings to 3 of 9.

The exact same thing happened in SB III. The Colts quarterback tandem of Morrall and Unitas threw four interceptions and the Colts lost a fumble. The Jets turned it over only once. The Colts also struggled mightily on third down going just 4 of 12 while Namath and the Jets had far more success converting on 8 of 18.

Having said all that, is there a person on the planet that believes that with two weeks to prepare Peyton Manning and the Colts are going to turn the ball over five times? Or that the Saints barely above average defense will hold the Colts to 30% on third down?
Just look at the Saints last game against the Vikings. In spite of enjoying four turnovers from the Vikings, the Saints still gave up 31 first downs and 475 total yards!
It’s not just the defense that should be worrying Saints fans. Simply put, Peyton Manning is on fire in the postseason compared to Drew Brees.

Against a slightly above average Minnesota defense and a below average Cardinal defense Brees has thrown for 444 yards. Meanwhile Manning has thrown for 623 yards in the post season and he did it against the top two defenses in the AFC.

I realize that anything can happen but based on an honest analysis the Saints are probably toast. In fact, if the Saints fall behind early and try to get cute it could easily turn into a blowout.

My prediction: Colts 45 Saints 20

Category: Politics