Ukraine End Game?
EU, US begin quiet talks on peace with Ukraine as Russia continues war
By Isabel Vincent
US and European government officials have started quiet talks with Ukrainian leaders about possible measures to end the war with Russia.
The discussions came as Ukraine reported 14 civilians wounded in Russian attacks, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union’s executive branch arrived in Kyiv Saturday for talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky about joining the European Union.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Talks to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, US officials told NBC News.Some of the talks, which officials described to the outlet as “delicate,” took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 countries that support Ukraine, the report said.
The talks come as the Biden administration has sought authorization from Congress for additional funding for military aid to Ukraine.
Land warfare is not my swim-lane, but I can hear “stalemate” as well as anyone else. It seems obvious Ukraine cannot dislodge Russia without direct NATO involvement- which is not going to occur. The question is how much is Z willing to cede, and will Putin accept it.
H/T to fm2176 for the inspiration.
Category: "Your Tax Dollars At Work", Ukraine
All modern wars are basically stalemates. The only way to win a “”WAR” is total war. It does not suffice to defeat an enemy on the battlefield alone, you must completely collapse the structure that brought forth the war in the first place. That possibility does not exist in the current state.
Sounds like a stalemate but wait! There’s more!
I’m unsure how my daily ramblings might have inspired this but suffice to say that nothing coming across the pond that we lowly average Americans hear is going to be 100% accurate. I hear one side saying that Putin is losing badly, and that Ukraine is killing tens of thousands of Russian troops, then I hear another side state that Ukraine can’t sustain the fight and is only pushing back an inevitable Russian victory.
I’ve made my opinion clear: if there is to be a victor, it will likely be the more established, much larger, and far better equipped Russia. Historically speaking, they’ve always been the underdog of major powers, but a bear with a lot of bite regardless. Ask Napoleon or Hitler. When it comes to foreign incursions, Russia has a much shoddier track record, but considering that Ukraine was still very much a puppet state of the Russian-dominated Soviet Union into my early teens, I’d hedge my bets on the Russkis coming out ahead in the long run.
As an American, though, I think that we are wasting far too much money and materiel supporting Ukraine. If the US and other countries had not stepped up to offer support, would the fighting still be going on now?
If the warmongers and MIC have their way, we’ll have boots on the ground in both Ukraine and the ME in no time. CEOs, politicians, and senior military leaders will be getting fat on the taxpayer dime while our children and grandchildren go off to fight and die in yet more wars we have no business getting into.
Moreover, Zelensky’s staff is saying he is determined to take back all Ukrainian territory, which is highly improbable given the disparity in resources of the two nations. And the Brandon crew is prepared to have the Ukes fight to the death of the last Ukrainian soldier.
I have few doubts Zelensky is determined to do that. Determination alone won’t win the day, but he knows that FJB will keep pushing for funds, and with a certain event happening just under a year from now, there’s no telling what will happen.
The election will impact more than a few things in the coming months. Brandon and company need to be seen as strong world leaders, so the string-pullers are probably already debating the best course of action. If peace is brokered, you can be sure that the current Administration and its media lackeys will tout the effective, no-nonsense leadership of our charismatic President. If peace talks fail, I’m sure they’ll find a way to get more directly involved. Foreign wars distract from domestic issues, and one bad day for Biden could result in him emulating Woodrow Wilson’s last year-plus in office.
Boots on the ground in Ukraine and/or the Middle East would take the headlines, while a well-timed vacation to Delaware and some perfectly choreographed pictures of Biden at the beach would assure us that he’s physically and mentally strong, but just needs a little rest before heading back to the War Room and pushing us to victory over Russia, Hamas, the Ottoman Empire, Pol Pot, Liechtenstein, and whatever other things go through his head. The Kaiser, Hirohito, and others of Brandon’s generation will pay if his reelection is at risk. Go Joe for ’24!
Wag the Dog – Wikipedia
“…”delicate”…” Ya think? For some reason I don’t see Pootin being very “delicate” when he or his representative tells the Z Man and/or the representatives of the more than 50 countries supporting Z Man to go piss up a rope. Depending on whose line of propaganda you want to believe, Pootin is either almost out of troops and obsolete equipment to throw into this meat grinder or he has thousands of Class A Formations with the latest rolling stocks on standby for when and if NATO decides to commit to the madness. Z Man is just waiting til all of his troops are fully trained on the M1 tanks, the fleets of choppers that are on loan from the 101st, and the rest of the 155mm artillery rounds in our inventory before launching his long awaited and vaunted counter offensive to drive the invaders back. There are even those that think the limited use of tactical canned sunshine will not lead to counter exchanges vaporizing troops and cities on a steady march east and west.
My opinion? Two despots, in a di@k waving contest, have enriched themselves, fertilizing their bank accounts with the blood of their citizens, just because they can get away with it. Z Man has already reportedly, canceled the March ’24 elections, and Pootin is steadily running out of Commanders. Odd that we haven’t heard anything out of the Wagner Group that is sitting poised to open a new front from a weak side of the line. Either way, Z Man has a nice chunk of USD stashed in a Swiss Bank Account for his retirement (thanks to the US Taxpayer), Stock prices for the MIC are up (thanks to the US Taxpayer), and soon to be retiring US Flag/GOs will be able to start their new gigs on the Boards of Directors, so there is that.
This will end in a stalemate. Ukraine cannot, even with foreign help, defeat Russia. That’s just the math of it. This will end up being a deal over pro-Russian territories in Ukraine being ceded to Russia in the least and at most, the line will be drawn along the current war map. Either way, the US and the EU need to hammer on both of them to bring this to an end, and that right quick. Russia wanted a buffer between them and NATO and did not want Ukraine in NATO. Just my opinion but sooner or later, Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia.
Those territories are not actually pro-Russian. They have Russians living in those areas, they moved there from Russia, or descended from folks that moved there from Russia. However, the separatist movement was fabricated by the Russians… They even had Russian military personnel larping as separatists in this area. The Russians accused NATO of doing the same to explain away their losing big chunks of territory last year.
As for Ukraine being unable to defeat the Russians, what the Russians have going for them are superior numbers in manpower, firepower, airpower, naval power, armor, etc. What has that gotten them? They should’ve taken over all of Ukraine before last year was over. Instead, they’re stuck where the frontlines are at, having lost a chunk of territory that they had captured in the beginning of the invasion. They’ve had to limit naval operations in the western black sea, effectively being pushed out by a nation with not much of a navy. They’ve also had to move a lot of their air assets further east.
The Russians are trying to incircle the Ukrainians in the Avdiivka direction, they literally sent one human wave after another until the inferior in number Ukrainians ran out of ammunition and had to pull back… But they caused heavy KIA/WIA on the Russians. The Russians are still at it in this area and, at this rate, will eventually have more KIA in this one area alone than what we had in Iraq. Heck, they started this initiative with frontal assaults against an elevated terrain.
Also, your recommendation would only appease Russia, who intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin et al. see Ukraine as a “fake” country that has to be brought back into the fold (part of Russia).
I’ve attached an image showing the disastrous effects as of October 20, 2023. The arrows in the inset show the new KIA and equipment losses from the previous update.
thebesig, thank you for your perspective. I guess I need to give this whole matter some more thought.
“Russia, who intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty.”
Got some evidence you can share? And how’s that Ukrainian Mother Of All Offensives coming along?
I was under the assumption that like what I have done in the past 20 years of arguing with people online, that others would do an internet search in the face of doubt of what someone said. Instead, I did an Internet search to check their claim.
An Internet search would have also told you that the Ukrainians did not expect to gain much territory this year as they did last year. They also made these statements before their offensive began. Why? One reason involves challenges that Ukrainians face when trying to breach Russian defense lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb7ORi4Axos
Given the number of dead Orks and their equipment, and the gains that the Ukrainians did make, I would say it is coming along fine. Heck, they’ve even enlarged their foothold in the eastern banks of the Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast).
Thanks for the links. Interesting, but I still didn’t see anything definitely indicating that Putin “intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty.” On the contrary, there seemed to be disagreement among “A panel of leading Russia experts convened by Columbia University…” as to Putin’s intentions.
Still, as you say, the Russians have “superior numbers in manpower, firepower, airpower, naval power, armor, etc.” and they remain well entrenched on nominally Ukrainian territory. Perhaps it is time for Zelensky to start negotiating, since it seems unlikely Ukraine will evict Russia from that territory militarily.
timactual: but I still didn’t see anything definitely indicating that Putin “intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty.”
Keep reading… And keep searching. His statements, as quoted in the meme above, and in the link the above post, coupled with his actions to first take Crimea, Donbas, and Donetsk, followed by his attempt to invade ALL of Ukraine, demonstrably shows that Russia intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty. This information is available via open-source searches.
Mention about disagreements among Russia experts is nothing but a strawman, Putin et al.’s statements, coupled with their actions, clearly shows the intent to liquidate Ukraine’s sovereignty.
I also said that the Russians have not been able to leverage their superior numbers to achieve their objectives. This is a repeat of the Battle of the Spanish Armada, on steroids, with the Ukrainians effectively using unrestricted warfare to negate Russia’s numerical advantage just as the English did to the Spaniards.
Nope, Zelinsky should keep fighting the Russians, he should keep bleeding them while they are in Ukraine. The Russians are suffering worse in Ukraine than the USSR did in Afghanistan (I’ve religiously followed both wars). You are also incorrect regarding the inability to kick Russia out of Ukraine. People thought the same about Afghanistan. Someone here told me that the Ukrainians would never step foot on the eastern banks of the Dnipro, that person was proven wrong.
“Keep reading… And keep searching”
Yeah, there’s a pony in there somewhere.
“clearly shows the intent”
If it was clear, I would have seen it and there would be no argument.
“he should keep bleeding them while they are in Ukraine.”
Problem is, the Ukrainians are also bleeding, and they don’t have as much blood to spare as the Russians.
It might be interesting, perhaps even useful, if someone were to actually ask Putin directly what, exactly, he wants.
timactual: Yeah, there’s a pony in there somewhere.
Correction, there’s a chockfull of information in the above link, and in countless others, that proves my argument correct and yours wrong. When the trend of this information falls within the same themes, without identifying new ones, we’ve reached what researchers call “saturation point.” It is when I reach this point that I become willing to argue that specific topic.
Again, I won’t argue a point unless two conditions are simultaneously met:
1. I have extensive knowledge of the topic being debated based on extensive, exhaustive study and/or firsthand experience…
2. The person I’m arguing against has little to no understanding of this topic…
Both of these conditions have been met here. It’s clearly obvious to me that you have done no real research on this topic.
timactual: If it was clear, I would have seen it and there would be no argument.
It is clear, you’re claiming that it isn’t, because the cold hard facts prove your argument wrong. It’s plainly obvious to those who have followed this topic since Russia attempted to invade all of Ukraine.
timactual: Problem is, the Ukrainians are also bleeding, and they don’t have as much blood to spare as the Russians.
Not bleeding as much as the Russians. The Ukrainians are doing things smartly, the Russians are practically throwing the lives of their Soldiers away, having approximately 10,000 KIA in the Avdiivka direction alone… Meanwhile, Russian bloggers are warning Moscow that the situation in Kherson is deteriorating for the Russians.
Unlike you, the Ukrainians have to fight for both their freedom and for their country’s existence. As many in Ukraine put it, if the Russians stop fighting, the war ends. If the Ukrainians stop fighting, Ukraine ends. I’ll believe the people who have to live this before I believe someone not versed on this topic.
“It is clear, you’re claiming that it isn’t,”
Then show me the cold, hard fact of exactly where Putin says his intent is to erase Ukraine. Should be easy for someone so well versed in what Putin has said.
“Unlike you,…”
What does that mean? I think everyone here already knows I am not fighting for my existence or freedom. Neither are you, for that matter.
timactual: Then show me the cold, hard fact of exactly where Putin says his intent is to erase Ukraine. [REPEAT POINT]
I did provide you cold, hard, facts supporting the argument that Rusia/Putin et al., intend to liquidate Ukraine’s sovereignty. Go back up and read every single link that I provided. Read the captions on the images, as well as the quotes that are provided in my comments, as I copied and pasted those quotes straight from those links, as well as from the transcript of Putin’s speech. It’s painfully obvious to me that you have not gone through that transcript.
timactual: Should be easy for someone so well versed in what Putin has said.
It was easy. I provided you with more than enough information, via both links and commentary, for you to see what Putin said as well as intend. I led you, via link, to the transcripts of Putin’s speech in the aftermath of February 2022 invasion, plus I provided information that pointed towards my argument.
Anybody who has completed high school should be able to take all of this information and see what Putin et al. intend… The liquidation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Putin’s speech is detailed to that effect.
timactual: What does that mean? I think everyone here already knows I am not fighting for my existence or freedom. Neither are you, for that matter. [STRAWMAN]
What does that mean? How about quoting everything I said to get proper context so that you would know what it means?
What I actually said:
“Unlike you, the Ukrainians have to fight for both their freedom and for their country’s existence. As many in Ukraine put it, if the Russians stop fighting, the war ends. If the Ukrainians stop fighting, Ukraine ends. I’ll believe the people who have to live this before I believe someone not versed on this topic.” – thebesig
I clearly mentioned who was fighting for their existence, bolded above. Reading comprehension, it’s a drug.
timactual: It might be interesting, perhaps even useful, if someone were to actually ask Putin directly what, exactly, he wants.
As I mentioned above, keep reading and keep searching. From one of the links that I provided above:
“It should be noted that Ukraine actually never had stable traditions of real statehood.” – Vladimir Putin
Putin argues why he did not see Ukraine as being a legitimate country, while also pointing out that Russia worked with them despite this “reality.” Then we get to the above quoted statement.
Many comments, from the Russian media space in the aftermath of the Russian invasion in February, 2022, argued whether Ukraine would keep its sovereignty or not… That it was up to the Russians what would happen, that Ukraine could keep their sovereignty under certain conditions. The Russians had a puppet chosen who would have taken the reigns once Zelensky’s government was overthrown. Then they would have followed the path that Belarus is currently on… Talks about “taking it up a notch” regarding a political union.
This is hinted at in this article, scheduled to post when they expected Russia to have all of Ukraine:
“Russia is restoring its historical completeness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had refused this and allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, we would not only have betrayed the memory of our ancestors, but would also have been cursed by our descendants for allowing the collapse of the Russian land.” – Petr Akopov
So Putin basically wants to remake Eastern Europe into the USSR again.
Putin’s always been all about getting the band back together.
One of the main benefits that the Russian Empire, then later the USSR, had for Moscow was a buffer zone between the west and the rest of Russia. There is historic precedence, as France under Nepoleon, then Germany under Hitler, invaded Russia. Russia’s infrastructure, aimed at moving and supplying Russian forces, is mainly oriented towards the west rather than towards the east… Towards the US, China, Japan, etc.
Setting up another buffer zone is a part of the motivation for the invasion of Ukraine.
The attached image is a segment of a Russian show where a host talks about Russia’s efforts in Ukraine.
“Many comments, from the Russian media space…”
So you consider Russian media to be reliable source?
“This is hinted at…”
Unlike you, evidently, I generally don’t form my opinions on hints and conjecture (perhaps that’s why you cannot produce an actual statement by Putin of his intent to destroy Ukraine).
Response to timactual, November 13, 2023, Part 1A
timactual: So you consider Russian media to be reliable source?
When it is consistent with other sources to include history and current events related articles, as well as what is coming from the front, you can’t dismiss it. In the research world, we call this “triangulation of the data.”
timactual: Unlike you, evidently, I generally don’t form my opinions on hints and conjecture [SELF PROJECTION]
First, the entirety of what I said for context:
“This is hinted at in this article, scheduled to post when they expected Russia to have all of Ukraine:
“Russia is restoring its historical completeness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in its entirety of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had refused this and allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, we would not only have betrayed the memory of our ancestors, but would also have been cursed by our descendants for allowing the collapse of the Russian land.” – Petr Akopov” – thebesig
When my entire statement is considered, anybody with reading comprehension abilities would notice that my use “hinted” is identifying a correlation. I could have used any other word, whichever word I used is irrelevant given the fact that I identified the argument made for invading Ukraine.
Second, formulating your opinions based on conjecture and other inductive fallacies is precisely what you do. Hence, unlike me, you pull things out of the air to support your argument, and take things completely out of context just to have something to say. I, on the other hand, base my argument on the facts, on a predictable trend of facts.
Response to timactual, November 13, 2023, Part 2A
timactual: (perhaps that’s why you cannot produce an actual statement by Putin of his intent to destroy Ukraine). [STRAWMAN]
First, what I actually said in the beginning:
“Also, your recommendation would only appease Russia, who intends to liquidate the entirety of Ukrainian sovereignty. Putin et al. see Ukraine as a ‘fake’ country that has to be brought back into the fold (part of Russia).” – thebesig
This is a statement that I need to prove, and I more than sufficiently proved it. Given that Putin is driving all of this, both logic, and common sense, supported by both commentary and action from the Russian side, clearly indicates what I argued.
Second, asking for Putin’s specific statements is a fallacy. It’s like demanding, for me, a video recording and photographs proving that I was in a specific country that I said I was in.
Third, I quoted Putin where he made statements to the effect that Russia’s intent is to liquidate Ukraine’s sovereignty. It is painfully obvious to me that you did not even bother reading the links.
Unlike you, I base my arguments on cold, hard, facts, reason, and logic. You, on the other hand, base your argument on what makes your ego feels good.
“I quoted Putin where he made statements to the effect that”
Weasel words. In other words, he did NOT actually say it.
timactual: Weasel words. In other words, he did NOT actually say it.
WRONG! Not weasel words, but a statement accurately pointing out Putin’s intentions.
The quoted statement:
“It should be noted that Ukraine actually never had stable traditions of real statehood.” — Vladimir Putin
Let’s break this down… Never had… Stable traditions… Real statehood
From this, we get:
Real statehood has stable traditions…
Ukraine never had stable traditions…
Therefore, Ukraine is not a real state…
Enter mass invasion…
In the link that I provided above, he identifies Ukraine and Russia as a single people, then claims that it was the Bolsheviks that created it… “By severing what was historically Russian land.”
He clearly makes a case to why he did not see Ukraine as a legitimate state throughout that link… including this gem:
“The disintegration of our united country was brought about by the historic, strategic mistakes on the part of the Bolshevik leaders and the CPSU leadership, mistakes committed at different times in state-building and in economic and ethnic policies. The collapse of the historical Russia known as the USSR is on their conscience.” — Vladimir Putin
Since I said, Russia, Putin et al., the quote from a Russian publication, Identifying Ukraine and Russia as a single political entity, carries the same themes.
Not weasel words, but a statement of fact based on what the Russians themselves are saying. The real weaseling is ignoring these facts, even denying them, just to continue making strawman arguments like what you’re doing.
There is no way, no fucking way, Vietnam beats the French, the Japanese, the French again, the USA, and the Chinese.
And yet, those tough sunsabitches did exactly that.
If the Ukranians won’t quit, they win. Sooner or later, Russia expends enough to become an inviting target for someone else. They can’t replace the bodies. They don’t breed anywhere near fast enough. It may already be too late to save Russia from the consequences of this idiotic dick-wave.
Chechnia, probably, will be the dagger to the russian heart. Else a ‘Stan.
There was a peace deal agreed to and in place TWO WEEKS after the SMO began.
And NATO said fook no.
Meanwhile, Chicoms flex their nuts in the South China Sea– next crisis up!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/08/south-china-sea-aircraft-carrier-usn-shandong-nine-dash-pla/
last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 countries that support Ukraine,
Send every one of their sorry asses a bill. It is us “taxpayers” supporting little Dictator tot.
They probably “support” Ukraine because of the money to be skimmed for personal enrichment. I have no proof for what I just said, but 5B dollars was a bridge too far for our borders, but the frikken sky is the limit for other countries borders.
FJB and his clueless administration.
80 plus weeks into a 2-week operation, so peace/cease fire is well over due…
Should’ve happened 18 months ago…
The Russians were at the table last week. They want everything that they’ve captured. Just about everything they’ve captured has been reduced to rubble and every living person has fled.
If zman lets them have it, He will probably be booted out of office. But, he can’t win so there’s that.
Reduced to rubble? Isn’t that what construction crews do before building back something everybody didn’t know they wanted? 🤔
I almost said build back better, but that phrase doesn’t work.
“He will probably be booted out of office.”
He would have to be “booted” out; he has shut down most of his political opposition and it seems he is “postponing” the Presidential election scheduled for March.
Information is ammunition.
Praise be, will wonders never cease.
Paliwood has been at this for years with their staged, fake videos. The leftwards have been sucking them up as true for years.
RIP
HAMAS Rabbit