“Serious Errors” in FBI Reports of Shooting Incidents

| June 18, 2021

The FBI defines an active shooter as one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. For example, the FBI has designated 28 shootings in 2019 as active shooter incidents.

Dr. John Lott Jr is a name well known on both sides of the gun control issue. He is a gun rights advocate; his publications include More Guns, Less Crime, The Bias Against Guns, and Freedomnomics.

He recently released a paper, written while he was a Senior Advisor for Research and Statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Policy.

His paper, Corrections to the FBI’s Reports on Active Shooting Incidents (May 31, 2021), examines the FBI’s previously released reports on “active shooter incidents” (ASI).

In his paper he disputes the FBI’s previously released reports on ASIs claiming that active shooting cases have increased over time. The paper shows the FBI excluding cases where shootings attacks have been stopped by concealed handgun permit holders as well.

Poetrooper sends.

“Serious Errors” in FBI Reports of Shooting Incidents

Dr. John Lott, Jr. of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) recently released a paper written while he was a Senior Advisor for Research and Statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Policy.

His paper, Corrections to the FBI’s Reports on Active Shooting Incidents (May 31, 2021), examines the FBI’s previously released reports on “active shooter incidents” (ASI). The FBI defines an “active shooter” as one or more individuals attempting to kill or killing other people in a populated area. “Implicit in this definition is the shooter’s use of one or more firearms. The ‘active’ aspect of the definition inherently implies the ongoing nature of the incidents, and thus the potential for the response to affect the outcome.”

The FBI published its initial report in 2014, titled A Study of Active Shooter Incidents Between 2000-2013, using information from “104 police department records, after action reports, shooting commission reports, open sources, and FBI resources.” Since then, the agency has published additional annual or bi-annual reports. As stated in the initial report, the goal of these studies is “to provide federal, state and local law enforcement with data so they can better understand how to prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover from these incidents.”

According to Dr. Lott, “all five reports so far issued were found to have serious errors.” These distort the trend of attacks over time and the evidence on factors that may be important in curtailing attacks in the future.

The premise of the FBI’s initial report was that a drastic increase in ASIs occurred between 2000 and 2013, escalating from one incident in 2000 to 17 in 2013. However, Dr. Lott’s paper indicates that the FBI failed to include twenty incidents in that time span, and that these “missing cases were three times more likely to have occurred from 2000-2006 than from 2007-2013, thus exaggerating the increase that was widely reported on.” Once these cases are included and placed in the context of pre-2000 data, it becomes evident that there “has only been a slight, statistically insignificant upward trend over the 38 years from 1977 through 2014,” and even this slight uptick is due to high numbers in a single year (2012).

NRA-LIA

Thanks, Poe.

Category: Guest Link, Guns, Politics

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  1. The Other Whitey says:

    The FBI lies its collective ass off. In other news, water: wet!

  2. Devtun says:

    The Federal Bureau of Illusions.

  3. Slow Joe says:

    Why do they lie?

    I am trying to discern whether the motivation behind these lies is individual ideology or organizational bias.

    • Old tanker says:

      The dems recognized the political power the fbi held under Hoover. Since he is gone and all the files he had on them are now as well they have co opted the agency for their own use. The most egregious example is the hillary white wash.

    • The Other Whitey says:

      Probably both. The organization was founded by J. Edgar Hoover, who hand-picked its original membership. Those members set the standards by which future generations of agents have been recruited and trained. Thus, an organization whose MO is to conduct unconstitutional surveillance and extortion in exchange for political favor, all under the guise of “law enforcement,” has sought out those morally-deficient individuals who would desire to be a part of such a thing. As one end of our political spectrum has gravitated substantially more towards totalitarianism, they naturally favor that end. A lot of them probably use their supposed legitimacy to delude themselves into thinking that the abuses they commit are somehow in service to a “greater good,” but most probably just get off on the unchecked power.

      The poisonous tree bears poisonous fruit.

  4. SgtBob says:

    “According to a government study…”
    GTF out of here!

  5. Penguinman000 says:

    It’s getting to the point that no social sciences studies can be trusted, regardless of the authors.

  6. Roh-Dog says:

    FIB doin’ quite a bit of heavy lifting these days. You’d figure they’d stop all these cross states’ line ‘mass shootings’ with that exorbitant funding.
    What’s this? I’m getting word from the control room saying these shootings weren’t interstate so the FIB is just minding other peoples’ business.
    Also, I’m being informed that the Federal Bureau of Instigations has been too f**king busy allowing their ‘informants’ (read: patsies) to plan, coordinate, and participate in so-called insurrections to get all these numbers correct.
    Walking and chewing gum at the same time ain’t taught at the academy. (but lying to congress while fluffing congesscritters is?… odd.)

    You’d figure after the list of idiots they’ve hired to do their dirty work they’d stick to the War on D-d-d-drugs for funding, but noooooo.

  7. SFC D says:

    “Serious Errors”. To anyone outside the federal government, that means “We Lied”.

  8. rgr769 says:

    Surprise, Surprise, Sgt. Carter!!! Who woulda thunk it; the Fan Belt Inspectors under the zerobama regime cooked the books (stats) on the active shooter incidents since 2000 and before. This was only a small piece of their plan to push for more laws, rules and regulations to restrict firearm ownership by law abiding, non-felon, non-deranged citizens. That was also the objective of Operation Fast & Furious; only it went pear-shaped on them due to the incompetence of another three letter federal agency.

  9. A Proud Infidel®™ says:

    BUT OF COURSE, the Fan Belt Inspectors also known as “Feebies” are little more than apparats of the Deep State doing their political Masters’ bidding and agenda these days. I have a brother who is retired from bein a US Marshal and he swears that some of the most incompetend boobs he’s ever seen were Feebies.

    • UpNorth says:

      Yeah, I was never impressed with the Famous But Incompetent when I had dealings with them. They sat on the identities of a couple of bank robbers around these parts and that ended up costing a good officer from a neighboring department his life.
      One thing you could count on, if there was a bank robbery and nobody was in custody, they never showed up.