Hindsight and Foresight

For your entertainment today, I have two financial forecasts to amuse you and possibly make you think about something besides those quarrelsome brats out defacing and damaging everything they see.

Analyst Elliott Smith published this forecast for CNBC in March 2020 shortly after the realization that a CV19 pandemic was likely, and all that went with it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/analyst-anticipates-worst-crisis-since-1929-amid-recession-fears.html

Key Points of the author’s article are as follows:

– Alvine Capital’s Stephen Isaacs said the coronavirus crisis is “unprecedented” since there were already record levels of leverage and overbought stocks.

– IHS Markit on Wednesday (March 18, 2020) revised down its forecast for world real GDP growth in 2020 to 0.7%. Growth below 2.0% is classified as a global recession.

– Goldman Sachs has sharply downgraded its 2020 growth forecast to 1.25%.

Since this forecast was published in late March 2020, we have an opportunity to review what has happened since the original publication and what is current in both the financial markets and the CV19 issues. That allows a valid comparison between the March projection and what has happened since the article was published, hence the second article from Deloitte International below.

Now the coronavirus is spreading again, which probability was brought up several weeks ago on the news.  This time it is increasing in states where it was sparse before.  The infestation itself is likely to be a long-term event that will occupy our attention for the foreseeable future. At some point, like all such things, it will begin to recede. The probability of an effective vaccine is growing stronger, but do not take its availability for granted. It has to be properly tested first, and meantime, we’ll just have to cocoon at home.

Things are changing in society in general, as indicated below.

There are people who have decided to work from home permanently instead of returning to their offices. Depending on its permanency, for the foreseeable future it may change the workplace substantially. It will have an economic effect on businesses such as restaurants and bars that were dependent on “downtown workers” for a substantial part of their income. But how much impact occurs, and how long it lasts, remain to be seen. There are several restaurants in my AO that have had signs out for months now that they will happily take orders for takeout and will deliver it to you at the curb or in their parking lots. It also includes Jimmy’s Hot Dogs & Italian Beef, about a 20 minute drive from my domicile.  Make sure you tip the waitress when she brings your order to the car. It’s certainly better than KFC, too, although KFC does make good gravy.

And last but not least, because people still want to go to the movies, drive-in movie theaters are returning. Some of them were still around.  Three drive-ins in my general area were concerned last year about having to close, although they had made adjustments to keep up with new formats and equipment. Now, the drive=ins are springing up all over the place, so that a family gets to go to the movies, with plenty of space between vehicles and room for the kids to play, and the movie-goers can take their own refreshments along or order in advance from the concession, stand just like old times. What’s old is new again, except you probably can’t get Strawberry Ripple any more.  (What!?! I didn’t buy that; he did.)

The following economic forecast for the USA from mid-2020 through to 2025 comes from Deloitte International Services. It was published June 15, 2020, three months after the CNBC article was released. It takes both a backward look at what has happened, and a forward view of the probabilities in a sluggish economy.

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html

This author indicates a further economic drop, which will bottom out. Per his article, over the next 5 years, recovery will be slow through 2021/2022, but will begin to pick up by 2023 and continue into 2025. It will be slow, not spectacular, but that indicates a more solid, sustainable recovery. The author also indicates bluntly that the USA should consider uncoupling manufacturing  of our goods from foreign entities, in particular, China, and bring those jobs back here.

I have indicated prior to this that the current recession was projected and forecast back in 2018, but no cause was given other than a somewhat overbought market. And you will probably recall the drop in oil prices on the commodities markets and the price drop of gas at the pump. There is about a $0.40 to $0.45 difference between the price in February and March, when gas at the pump dropped below $2.00/gallon, and now, 3 months later.  This is not to say that another price drop won’t happen again. That one was caused by people not going to work or not shopping or dining out.

I suggest either copying the two articles to a Word document or printing them out and doing the comparisons between March (the CNBC article) and what has happened since then, as in the Deloitte article. In addition, pay attention to the probabilities noted in the Deloitte article. The author’s forecast is that the strongest growth will be after 2024.

When the original forecasts in 2018 were for a downturn and a sluggish economy by 2020, no reason for that was included other than the economy was over-ripe and likely to drop substantially by 2020 to 2021. No cause, other than an overbought market was given, but there is always a root cause for something to happen, and it did. If you look at the turmoil that has been going on, as well as the side effects of it, it was almost like a stick of dynamite waiting to be lit.

Perhaps we needed a shakeup, to be wakened out of whatever complacency we were in.

Take nothing for granted.  We can’t afford it.

Category: "The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves", China, COVID-19, Economy