Joseph Biden Landslide Possible According to Pollster
Nate Silver, polling guru, sees that although President Trump has a chance of winning re-election, he has his work cut out for him. He stated that President Trump has some issues to deal with… To the point that Joe Biden could wind by a landslide. But plenty could change in the coming weeks.
From the Washington Examiner:
“Joe Biden leads by around 9 points in our national polling average, and that lead has been growing. Of course, national polls don’t really matter. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would have been president,” he said. “But it’s worth noting that such a large lead is unusual in politics these days. Clinton never led by more than about 7 points, for example, and at this point in the 2008 race, Barack Obama led John McCain by around 6 points.”
“So, Trump needs to make a comeback, and there is plenty of time for that, and maybe also get some help from the Electoral College,” he added.
Silver stressed in a post on Thursday that Biden’s lead in swing states is much smaller, giving Trump an opening to win the Electoral College if the race tightens.
He wrote that the former vice president leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states totaling 170 electoral votes. “So while a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November,” he said.
He explained further on Sunday that the contest is closer in the Midwest than it is nationally.
“The race is a bit tighter,” Silver said. “We have Biden up by a more modest 6 points in Wisconsin and 5 points in Pennsylvania. Biden also can’t necessarily take Minnesota for granted. Trump nearly won it in 2016, and there’s been no polling there since the protest began in the state.”
“But there are a lot of issues for Trump. He’s behind by 10 in Michigan, and Biden is doing surprisingly well in Florida, ahead by 7 points. If Biden were to win Florida, then he’d only need one state from that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin group. Or Biden could lose all of those Midwestern states but win Arizona, where our average has him up by 4,” he continued. “So, for the time being, no, I don’t buy that we’re going to have exactly the same map as in 2016. Instead, Trump is kind of fighting a two-front war, with problems in the Midwest on one hand and then Arizona and Florida on the other hand.”
I remember when the media, back in 1984, talked up Mondale’s chances over Reagan’s of winning that following November. History repeated itself in 2016 when we were shown that Hillary was going to win.
The Washington Examiner has more here.
Category: Politics
I can’t wait to see the shocked faces of the media again “But we told you who was going to win! How did we get this wrong?”
As well as the Schadenfreude from watching snowflakes bawling and melting once again.
This would be the same Nate Silver of 538 who predicted a 302-235 win for Clinton as I recall…who stated Clinton was a 71% – 28% favorite over Trump.
Color me unconvinced at the moment.
I think the Democrats were more interested in beating Sanders than Trump which is why they selected the weakest candidate in the field to give the nomination to by asking everyone else to drop out just before the Carolina primary…except for Warren to make sure she siphoned off some of the Bernie votes in case it was close…
Now we have an early onset Dementia patient facing Trump…it should make for some entertaining debate moments.
If Trump loses this fall it’s only going to be his own fault.
Stuffing the ballot box with bogus mail in ballots will defeat Trump also.
Whomever the demonrats pick as creepy, groping, uncle joe’s running mate is who they plan on being the next President of these United States. They will pull out all of the stops and do whatever they think is needed to win/steal this election.
It is not Trump that is their target; it is the American Patriot. He is just in their way.
It is not Trump that is their target; it is the American Patriot. He is just in their way. Yes, those evil Democrats. The ones who write this synopsis of the Trump Presidency: “Donald Trump has been the worst president this country has ever had. And I don’t say that hyperbolically. He is. But he is a consequential president. And he has brought this country in three short years to a place of weakness that is simply unimaginable if you were pondering where we are today from the day where Barack Obama left office. And there were a lot of us on that day who were deeply skeptical and very worried about what a Trump presidency would be. But this is a moment of unparalleled national humiliation, of weakness. When you listen to the President, these are the musings of an imbecile. An idiot. And I don’t use those words to name call. I use them because they are the precise words of the English language to describe his behavior. His comportment. His actions. We’ve never seen a level of incompetence, a level of ineptitude so staggering on a daily basis by anybody in the history of the country whose ever been charged with substantial responsibilities. It’s just astonishing that this man is president of the United States. The man, the con man, from New York City. Many bankruptcies, failed businesses, a reality show, that branded him as something that he never was. A successful businessman. Well, he’s the President of the United States now, and the man who said he would make the country great again. And he’s brought death, suffering, and economic collapse on truly an epic scale. And let’s be clear. This isn’t happening in every country around the world. This place. Our place. Our home. Our country. The United States. We are the epicenter. We are the place where you’re the most likely to die from this disease. We’re the ones with the most shattered economy. And we are because of the fool that sits in the Oval Office behind the Resolute Desk.” Except that’s not… Read more »
There are plenty of squishy Repubs, and even a Liberal contingent. Also, the country-club set tend to loathe him.
It is the American Voter that turned to him, often in disgust with what both parties otherwise offered. They will turn to him again, as neither party has much learned.
Technically, about 28% of the American Voter turned to him.
How certain are you? I do tend to give a slight edge to Biden right now, though I never put it past the Democrats to shoot themselves in the foot. If you’re completely convinced Trump will win, want to make a bet?
I don’t “bet” on anything, ever.
My prediction is Trump wins the 2020 election.
Make of that what you will.
Long.time ago I commented here that the only group against Trump more than the Democrats is yhe establishment Republicans… I see no reason to retract that.
“that branded him as something that he never was. A successful businessman”
That right there says everything you need to know about Steve Schmidt. Trump has over 300 businesses and what, 8 bankruptcies? That’s around a 98% success rate. I wonder if ole Steve is successful in whatever he tries 98% of the time.
“When you listen to the President, these are the musings of an imbecile. An idiot. And I don’t use those words to name call. I use them because they are the precise words of the English language to describe his behavior. His comportment. His actions. We’ve never seen a level of incompetence, a level of ineptitude so staggering on a daily basis by anybody in the history of the country whose ever been charged with substantial responsibilities.”
He’s talking about Joe Biden, isn’t he?
Why not both?
Trump won election as President on his first effort at political office.
That is not the handiwork of an imbecile.
He did so despite serious and unrelenting opposition by the Democrat Machine, the Clinton Machine, the vast majority of Press, and most Establishment Republicans.
The election wasn’t even close. He had over 300, a comfortable margin.
-That- speaks to a certain genius.
The left and the media (I repeat myself) for the last fifty years have painted every Republican president as an idiot.
We’re all really impressed with the blatherings of a world class cuckservative like Schmidt. Who are you going to quote to us next out of the grab bag of RINO never-Trumpers?
The Dementia patient diagnosis makes me wonder why some Trump supporting journalist does not ask Joe the question with no answer. “Joe, do you still beat your wife with a cat-o-nine-tails?”
ok
“So, for the time being, no, I don’t buy that we’re going to have exactly the same map as in 2016.”… I’ll agree with him on that…
The media are pushing this narrative of Biden leading for a very good reason:
They’re covering up a crime before it’s committed–if the Democrats and their allies in the media can manage to steal the election, they will have a defense against their critics (and the law) in saying, “What are you talking about? The polls all said we would win and we did.”
Hmmmm…. Poetrooper, there is a prediction (not cast in stone) that the economy in the US (and possibly worldwide) will continue to erode into 2021, 2022 and part of the way into 2023, with some really serious financial results. Is it possible that Biden getting a win could have anything to do with that?
Just asking, because no matter who is in that office, the winner of the next election will get blamed for it, and I’ve wondered if the election results will have anything to do with it.
I hear that economic doom most often from folks saying “Buy Gold! (From me)”
Lots of other folks sell “economic downturn coming” because hey, eventually they have to be right, right?
Nah.
As long as the Donks are throttled by divided Congress, and the Repubs hold the Senate, things won’t crash. Assuming Trump wins, and the Donks don’t have both houses and a veto-proof majority, things should move OK. If it is Trump with a notionally Repub Senate and Donk house, better. Trump with more-or-less Republican House and Senate, a little bit better still. Supermajority? Probably worse that the prior two cases, as the squishy-r-pubs would have to sabotage openly.
Of course, the “left field” scenario in Trump term 2 is a Trump-organized third party.
“What the hell would he have to lose?”
-maybe- a gut-and-rebuild of the GOP, but more likely a new one. Template: T Roosevelt and “Bull Moose”.
If term 1 was a big NY FU to the Donks that mocked him, ponder Term 2 and one to the -others- who mock him.
And he has a long memory for slights, and -loves- a big fight.
Yeah. Big FU coming to his notional ” allies”. Might like it. Might hate it. But it’s coming.
I don’t think we’ve seen, the last of that graphic, thebesig. I’ve already stolen it.
*grin*
If you don’t like Donald Trump as President of The United States, feel free to blame the mainstream news media and the Democrat Party. They decided that Hillary Clinton was entitled to the position, and they did their damnedest to stack the deck in her favor, from giving her the debate questions beforehand and securing her nomination through super delegates and stealing the election from Bernie Sanders. And don’t forget the cooperation of the news industry, digging up on dirt on every viable Republican candidate (seriously, Marco Rubio had four traffic tickets in nine years?) so that the last man standing would be Donald Trump. Surely there is no way that America would elect a reality television star and someone with zero political experience. But given the arrogance of Hillary Clinton, who made a fortune arranging back door deals with her private server, driving away swing voters, it boiled down to the lesser of two evils. And in 2020, the Democrats are repeating their mistake. Any time that Joe Biden shows up on television, he doesn’t know where he is, who he is talking to, or what he is talking about. Hack is quite confident that Lars will reply with “But he will surround himself with competent people.” So why won’t the Democrats field one of those competent people?
To put a positive spin on a Biden presidency, we could finally look forward to not having to put up with Alec Baldwin’s lousy impressions of President Trump on Saturday Night Live, and each week we could look forward to them bringing out a character portraying a coked-out Hunter Biden. And if Joe Biden can get a crackhead with no experience in the energy industry or Ukrainian business practices a job paying in excess of $50,000 a month, imagine what kind of job he could get for someone who can pass a drug test.
Hack Stone is Deplorable, and his vote counts.
The recent series of primaries highlights the changes in vote casting this year. Less of poll workers and less polling stations, longer lines, more vote by mail. Blame the villain of your choice – media, virus, corrupt election boards.
Longer count times, delayed results, possibly more contested precincts.
More potential for turbulence.
okay, maybe this ain’t the message for this time or space, or I already missed a post on this subject.
There’s going to be a lot of screaming going on later about this later, but what are you going to do about it. I’m reading a lot of talk, not so much action. Is that pushing the bounds too far here? Serious question, no trolling intended.
If I was apt to jerk chains
Conventions are a bad idea.
Why do them?
Candidate are picked. Platforms are stable or can be debated online.
Arena, especially in Jacksonville, or Milwaukee or Charlotte are problematic based on any virus measuring metric.
“I’m Joe Biden, and my caregiver says I approve this message.”
I always liked, I’m Joe Biden, and I forgot this message
True dat. Not only did he forget the message, he forgot he approved it too.
Trump campaign is even more of a mess than Biden’s right now.
Trump is going to figure his campaign manager in 3..2..1..
And Kushner will be pushed out of the campaign decision making process.
*fire