The Power of Fearless Predictions
A few days ago I wrote that only three incumbent Democrats were “totally safe”. Several among our astute loyalists took me to task for not including Wisconsin Socialist Russ Feingold on the safe list.
LL went all Joe Namath on me:
LL: I live in WI and I can guarantee you Feingold is safe.
Apparently Snowman has no respect for the Oracle of Anderson either:
Snowman: Unfortunately, both Feingold and his dip-shit daddy Herb Kohl are safe here in Cheesehead land.
COB, I’m moving back to Texas!
Even TSO denied me at the first sound of the morning rooster:
TSO: YEah, Schumer, Feingold and Wyden all safe. Mikulski too I fear.
Scott Rasmussen however refuses to discount the near miraculous power of the alcohol-induced seer that is COB.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Wisconsin finds Republican Tommy Thompson edging incumbent Russ Feingold 47% to 43% in a hypothetical U.S. Senate match-up. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Any incumbent who attracts less than 50% support at this point in a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.
Thompson leads by 10 points among male voters and breaks nearly even with Feingold among women.
And here’s the kicker:
Voters not affiliated with either major party break for Thompson 53% to 36%.
17 points among Independents! This is critical because it means that Feingold can’t go all-in to appeal to his base.
To repeat my point from the earlier post; this doesn’t mean that Feingold will lose his seat but it does mean that it will likely be competitive and that means that Democrat coffers will suffer defending what was supposed to be safe seats making life even more difficult for any upstarts from purple states.
Excellent my friends, excellent.
Category: Politics
I still maintain he is safe, notwithstanding any polls.
Fear not young Luke. Legacy is not a leap. That burning force within you is not trepidation, it is destiny. I will welcome you when you arrive…..to the dark side!
Until Scott can poll the dead “likely voters” that will vote 85% Democrat, I will keep the Champagne on ice.
I would love for TSO and I to be wrong. If it were to happen in November, I would give ol’ Russ an “so long, farewell” and move on to other things. Like winterizing my worm farm…
bwaaaahahaha, Tommy Thompson is RINO.
Let me give you an example of what happens here in WI….in my little town, the UAW Local 95 president was elected to the Assembly. He served BOTH POSTS concurrently and no one blinked an eye at the conflict of interest that a state representative was also the sitting president of a UAW branch. As a matter of fact, he was elected the Speaker shortly thereafter.
I stand by my statement. And the Rasmussen polls showed Coakley spanking Brown 9 points up exactly 14 days before the election. link It’s gonna come down to completing the arrow in our little cubbies on election day and Feingold will win. With a reasonable majority.
I guess I should clarify and say if Thompson wins, it’s not because he’s a Republican and the state wants “change.” It’s because he has massive name recognition to counter Feingold’s incumbency. Thompson is the one who created BadgerCare, a public health insurance program, and as the head of HHS, he shopped it around to other states. He’s also been know to crack a few anti-Jew jokes. He may say he’s a Republican, but I would never believe him.
I agree that Thompson is a RINO but Feingold has never gotten over 55% of the vote in Wisconsin. In sweeping elections Wisconsin has rallied to the right (See Nixon, Reagan both by big margins)
Russ may not go away but he sure as hell won’t go away with any cash left in his bag which again is the point of this thought anyway.
I think this graphic shows how WI falls out on a regular basis.
And because Russ has changed so much over the years (I actually used to consistently vote for him until he turned into an ultra leftie), he has garnered a strong support base within the Democratic party for toeing the line (and in some cases, redefining that line ever further left) in the past couple of election cycles. They’ll go to bat for him and help fill his coffers cuz he may need a little help, but most likely, not much.
Also, don’t discount the uber-liberal campus and activism there. UW ain’t called the Berkeley of the Midwest for nothing. If there were a credible threat to Feingold’s seat, those kids would be out in full force! Free radical activism counts for a shit ton. Look how Obama got elected!
Ah-HA! LL voted for Feingold! Fi on him. Ban for life from TAH.
Jeez, COB, I thought you had more conservative pals.