Mosul; the battle for Obama’s legacy

Chief Tango sends us a link to the Washington Post which is wringing it’s collective hands over the upcoming battle for Mosul, worried because “The stakes are high not just for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, looking for a win that would shore up his political standing, but also for President Obama, who is seeking to deliver a battlefield win in the waning days of his presidency.” (Emphasis mine)

The previous administration handed over a fairly peaceful Iraq, but Secretary of State Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden screwed that up by not being able to convince the Iraqis that they needed a continued US presence. How did the Obama Adminstration screw up the status of forces agreement (SOFA) with Iraq? Well, according to the Wikileaks Podesta emails, it was just because they didn’t want to put their names on a Bush Administration agreement;

The Iraqis are keenly interested in understanding President-Elect Obama’s position on the SOFA. Indeed, a number of senior Iraqi officials – including a number of Prime Minister’s most senior advisors — are claiming that Mr. Obama will not support a SOFA signed by President Bush and interpreting the few messages publicly available as a pretext to reject the agreement on the table. After you have had time to review the SOFA text, we ask that the Obama transition team express support for the SOFA, lest the Iraqis use previous positions or the absence of comment to scuttle the deal.

The Iraqis then lost Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq to ISIS, now they have to take it back. They have to take it back so that Obama can have a win to cap off his presidency – once again they’re depending on the troops to make them look good;

Military leaders have sought to stress that the U.S. advisory role in the Mosul offensive will be far different than it was prior to the 2011 withdrawal, when American troops nominally operated in support of local forces but in practice led much of the combat operations themselves.

In the latest deployment, the Pentagon last month again increased the number of U.S. troops, bringing it to well above 5,000. One key task for those troops will be helping Iraqi leaders orchestrate the movements of a large, fractious force that will include up to 12 Iraqi army brigades and tribal fighters aided in the broader Mosul operation by Kurdish peshmerga and powerful Shiite militia factions.

“The U.S. strategy of by, with, and through [local forces] will culminate in Mosul, and hopefully in Raqqa not too long thereafter,” a defense official said, like other officials speaking on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

Other American troops will advise Iraqi units in the field. Under current battle rules, U.S. advisers can accompany local forces at the battalion level, which would place them closer to direct combat, with authorization.

“It’s risky advising at that level, we know that,” an administration official said. “But again, it’s one decision that we think will help provide more effective coordination.”

U.S. advisers will also accompany troops from Iraq’s elite Counterterrorism Service, who as in previous battles are expected to spearhead the assault into the city.

Other measures the White House approved in the lead-up to Mosul, including Apache attack helicopters and HIMARS long-range artillery systems, are expected to play a key role in the final dash toward Mosul.

There are now more than 5,000 US troops in Iraq – an infantry brigade-sized element. Previous restrictions on participation of US troops in combat (boots on the ground) have been lifted and the message is clear; Obama needs you to win this one.

At the same time, American commanders will be anxious to minimize U.S. casualties in a conflict that has received only reluctant support in Washington. Since U.S. forces returned in 2014, three American service members have died in combat operations.

They ought to put Obama, Clinton and Biden in the vanguard to insure it all goes well for their careers.

ADDED: The Washington Post reports that the battle for Mosul has begun.

Category: Terror War