Predictable. Absolutely Predictable.

| November 20, 2015

Remember that law passed in 2010? The one called the    Patently Pollyannaish, Asinine ,Calamitous Abominaton       Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, or PPACA – AKA “Obamacare”? That law that was supposed to make healthcare more “affordable”?

Well, it seems there have been a few little hiccups along the way. Premiums haven’t gone down. For most, they’ve gone up – substantially.

And it certainly looks like those Obamacare premiums might be about to get a lot more expensive.

The nation’s largest private health insurance company, UnitedHealth Group, is losing money on Obamacare. It’s losing so much money that it recently told investors it “may exit the program’s exchanges” in the reasonably near future – as in as early as 2017. Why? Because they simply can’t sustain their current losses on Obamacare.

Gee. Insurers are having trouble getting young, healthy folks to sign up – just as was predicted by Obamacare critics. The requirement to cover preexisting conditions is leading to large losses for insurers – just as was predicted by critics. Oh, and did I mention that several Federal programs intended to “backstop” insurers (and thus limit their financial risk) end in 2017? That will also further limit choices and raise premiums – just as was predicted by critics.

The bottom line: insurers are losing money on Obamacare – just as was predicted by critics. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what insurers are going to do under that scenario.

Seems to me like the law is looking more and more each day like a SCoaMF – just as was predicted by critics.

But maybe that’s just me.

Category: Health Care debate

159 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
NR Pax

Remember to stretch properly before doing the I Told You So Dance.

Ex-PH2

Glad I don’t have to be concerned about whether or not I could keep the health care I had if I liked it, and then find out I was going to lose it and pay more for nothing.

Now if I can just figure out which button to push for VA Healthcare when go over there….

HMCS (FMF) ret.

Memo to the Free Shit Army…

You. Got. SCREWED.

Deal with it…

OldSarge57

Well, I think we ALL did! I can hardly wait for round two…

Johan

Unfortunately, those of us not in the Free Shit Army got screwed, too.

Of course when I see ‘men’ in their 30’s skateboarding down the street during work hours, I’m not sure anything in this country will be solvent ever again.

Hack Stone

If you recall, Nancy Pelosi stated that with passage of Obamacare, people will now be free to pursue their passions, such as writing the next great American novel, pursuing a degree in dance appreciation, or in the example you cited above, training for the US Olympic Skateboarding Team.

2/17 Air Cav

Is there any doubt whatsoever that she still hasn’t read the bill–now law?

Johan

I guess that blank stare is because they are ‘doping’ for the team.

OldSoldier54

Everybody is getting Hosed. In fact, the ACA could be described as the Equal Opportunity Hosing Act.

2/17 Air Cav

Well, not if you are receiving Refugee Cash.

L. Taylor

Nationalize healthcare.

Healthcare does not follow market principles for price discovery so expecting the market to handle it is ludicrous. Prices will always skyrocket in a market drive healthcare system because all of the power of price setting is outside the hands of the consumer and consumers have no choice but to pay the sticker price. Insurance agencies are poor surrogates for a consumer in price discovery because insurance companies do not represent the interests of their consumers and because a large tactic of the insurance industry is negotiating prices for themselves that push costs onto the public due to increased charges on the uninsured.

And it is arguably a national security imperative because a viral outbreak is a much larger national security threat with respect to lost lives than any terrorist organization ever will be. And delayed or inadequate access increases the risk of a catastrophic outbreak and even increases lives lost in ordinary yearly viral outbreaks.

2/17 Air Cav

Yeah, Lars, nationalizing health care has always been the plan. Love the way you progressive/marxist/commie bastards selectively couch certain matters as a national security threat or issue. You say, “consumers have no choice but to pay the sticker price.” One legally unavailable option is not to buy. Besides, it’s a tax, Lars. Boats and hoes. Widows and orphans.

L. Taylor

Choosing to die is not a legitimate alternative product to getting medical treatment.

GDContractor

Yes, but being offered hospice care by the collective is so much better.

L. Taylor

I wasted enough time arguing with you guys. If you think healthcare follows market principles on price discovery then you do not know what the fuck it means.

2/17 Air Cav

Awfully free dropping that F Bomb. It rather loses its punch when you do it so very often, Carp. Corn?

L. Taylor

Ok, I will work on it. However, this is the first response I read;

“Healthcare for my dog follows market principles for price discovery. Same for my cows. Get the f****** government and f****** insurance companies out of healthcare.”

Helped set the tone.

But point taken. I need to stop being so pissed off all the time. Or at least filter it.

2/17 Air Cav

I am not all certain what I just listened to but my pc probably ingested a virus. I don’t have any virus protection on my pc and haven’t had for years. I know. I know. You likely said about that, “And this reporter is stunned!”

GDContractor

My box said no threat detected. Slap shot man, the best movie ever made!

Thunderstixx

Lars…
Take your ball and go home. You will have no converts to communism on this page.
You keep saying that you don’t like us, you are tired of wasting your time here so, fine, take your ball and go home.
That would be the only ball you have BTW…

AW1 Tim

Here’s the thing, though……. I’d appreciate if someone could explain how health care is a basic human right?

Doctors, nurses, medical techs, etc, re no different than plumbers, electricians, boiler techs, HVAC installers, etc. You have no RIGHT to their services if you can’t figure out a way to pay for them.

You wouldn’t take your car to the dealership and expect them to fix it for free, would you? You wouldn’t expect a construction company to reroof your house for free, would you?

Doctors, nurses, etc al, have an absolute right to compensation for their services, just like anyone else. This is why we purchase health insurance. BUT single-payer isn’t the answer, and it cannot be, because it shifts the responsibility for payment onto the backs of the working class who have to suffer through higher taxes (legalized robbery) to pay for it. Those taxes will, in all likelihood, be higher than the insurance premiums they’d be paying for otherwise.

The answer isn’t single-payer. The answer is in 2-parts.

1.) Allowing individuals and families to purchase health insurance across state lines, and from any company they choose, in levels they wish to, or even not at all.

2.) Tort Reform. Getting the costs of healthcare down goes hand in hand with reducing the costs of malpractice coverage, and THAT is incumbent upon reducing the amounts which juries/judges can award in damages. REASONABLE levels for “pain & suffering” as well as to cover the costs of the original procedure, and what it will take to fix it, along with lost wages, are one thing, but driving up the costs of healthcare for everyone through deep-pocket lawsuits is quite another.

Fix those 2 things, and there’s no need for ObamaCare, or any form of single-payer commie bullshit healthcare system.

HMCS (FMF) ret.

Winner, Winner chicken dinner… you put the rounds on target. Part of my MBA is as an Healthcare Administrator, and socialized medicine is not the way to go. Getting tort reform and insurance across state lines would be two huge steps in the right direction.

GDContractor

Healthcare for my dog follows market principles for price discovery. Same for my cows. Get the f****** government and f****** insurance companies out of healthcare.

2/17 Air Cav

Are there any guns in your home?

GDContractor

And FUCK YOU too!
🙂

2/17 Air Cav

That’s kinda what I replied, too. Actually, I was more polite and asked, “Is this something I have to swear or affirm is true?”

Ex-PH2

What makes you think I live in a home?

L. Taylor

Healthcare for people do not.

Vets, generally, give sticker prices. Even then, however, there are few alternative products. Either pay or your pet suffers/dies. So even vets do not follow market principles. But at least since vets generally provide accurate cost estimates you can “shop around.” Plus, you can euthanize. So not the same as human healthcare.

Hospitals do not give sticker prices. You do not know how much your costs are going to be. You cannot shop around for the best price. You cannot say “Gee doc, the cost of a triple bypass this season is pretty high, I think I will get a kidney transplant instead”. When you are in severe pain or dying you pay the price regardless of whether it is reasonable. You cannot negotiate prices. You cannot return defective products. There is a massive information asymmetry between provider and consumer.

Healthcare simply does not follow market principles.

Not debating further with you on this. If you do not accept my assertion I really do not give a fuck.

A Proud Infidel®™

HEY Larsie-pinky-puddin’-tame jiffy-poo, you’re totally full of shit yet again! If the U.S. Federal Government was capable and competent at administering healthcare 0bamacare would be completely unnecessary because Medicare and Medicaid would fill the gaps. We see year after year how that as well as VA healthcare gets horribly mismanaged by bureaucrats and politicians even stupider and more imbecilic than you but you and your fellow shit-for-brained moonbats keep screeching for Government to wipe your candied asses for you. Keep posting and parading your idiocy or us to see, I sometimes have trouble comprehending JUST how shitheaded some people can be and you demonstrate that with nearly every one of your posts, kiddo! 😀

L. Taylor

you comment is too stupid for me to even respond “Ok kid”.

A Proud Infidel®™

OOOHHH Larsie-pinky-poo, IT’S TRUTH my pus-brained thin-skinned little butt pickle! HOW many billions of our tax dollars were wasted on the 0bamacare web site that still doesn’t work(and the job was given to a college classmate of Moochelle 0bama)?
The truth makes you so spastically angry it makes me laugh my ass off! Instead of everyone enjoying free Kool-Aid while group hugging and singing “Kum-ba-yah”, ewality has kicked in and we see yet again how incorrigibly inept, incompetent and corrupt our politicians and Government bureaucracies are, ‘lil puffy-head! The pols of your party and your Idol B. Hussein 0bama decided this year that retirees and those on Social Security cannot be given COLA adjustments while we’re supposed to take in tens of thousands of unvetted Middle Easterners, a number of which are bound to be terrorists hell-bent on executing attacks, and CONgresscritters that bawl that THEY need a raise while enjoying lavish perks and privileges on our money. Is it any coincidence that a gathering of baboons is called a “Congress”? OK KID, now go pout in your corner after another glass of Kool-Aid! 😀

TheCloser

But Bush…!

A Proud Infidel®™

OH and if you’re SO super-educated, then why aren’t you able to capitalize and puctuate? WAIT, NEVER MIND, I remember your candyassed pissy excuse from before, but I think it’s just a case of shitheaditis!

Ex-PH2

Oh, for Pete’s sake, Proud, he can’t even write in complete sentences. He can only produce sentence fragments. Pity the poor dumb thing just a little. It’s the holiday season.

A Proud Infidel®™

I try to Ma’am, but when it comes to goobs like Larsie-pinky “sympathy” is merely a word that exists somewhere between “shit” and “Syphilis” in the dictionary!!

GDContractor

Anyone can parrot stupid shit they learned from their leftist professors Lars, you stupid fuck.

What was healthcare like before the healthcare cabal was formed? Did you ever ask yourself that, you stupid fuck?

Of course price discovery does not happen with something that has been declared a basic human right by your idiot scrotum shaving president. But he knew that, didn’t he….

2/17 Air Cav

“Anyone can parrot stupid shit they learned from their leftist professors Lars…” Yes, for those of us who attended college after military service, most of us saw no point in playing Peck’s Bad Boy when the progressive/marxist/commie had grade control. So, rather than plant a flag–a useless exercise for conservatives in academia–we gave the pinheads what they wanted and then laughed heartily as the A’s came in. Like I give a shit about Hegel’s dialectic or class struggle. Of cousre, we also gravitated toward those few professors who had their heads properly screwed-on tightly. They were always the toughest graders, too. You had to actually earn grades with them.

GDContractor

2 of the best profs I ever had were from have-not countries. Microeconomics taught by a guy from Sudan and several political science courses taught by a guy who grew up in communist Hungary. Not only would they have flunked Lars, they would have made him cry….scarier than Dave Hardin with a hard on.

HMCS (FMF) ret.

That last statement needs a warning… so fucking wrong… not going to get any sleep for the next month, dude…

Ex-PH2

With a hard what on? Hard hat?

You must be more clear, dear.

Johan

Typically, with rights it seems like the wording is always something like “Congress shall pass no law respecting…” or “…shall not be infringed.”

It doesn’t say freedom of religion, so therefore everyone gets a free Bible. And so forth.

Ex-PH2

Actually, you can return defective medical products of any kind, including prescription drugs and prostheses, and you can negotiate fees and prices.

That is something you don’t know about?

Boy, you really ARE dumb, Lars.

Avoid car accidents and slippery sidewalks from now on. Oh, and elevators, too. And french fries – they could get stuck in your nose for good.

OldSoldier54

Meh … you are SO predictable.

L. Taylor

You listed one of several OECD countries that is ranked last on one of the categories ranked.

Loot at a bigger picture. http://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/HealthSpendingInUSA_HealthData2012.pdf

A Proud Infidel®™

HEY Pinky-puffy rudy-poo, if socialism is so great then why don’t you emigrate to say, Cuba or Venezuela and tell us how great things are after a year in either place! 😀

A Proud Infidel®™

OK Pinky, yeah right, o petulant candyass!

HMCS (FMF) ret.

They come across the border to the US to get care, and pay cash for it… see “Beautiful BC” plates all over the place in my AO.

Fish

Lars, that’s a load of BS. Insurers do represent the interests of their consumers (the public) in negotiating the best rates with their provider networks. What’s driving up the cost is forcing the high-risk/high-cost patients into the general member pool through the ACA mandates instead of managing them separately through shared high risk pools. It is the government betters regulating to death a business they don’t understand and having their thumb on the scale that is forcing people to decide between food on the table or taking the “fee” on their taxes.

2/17 Air Cav

Fish. I don’t recognize your screen name but it sounds to me that you know what the hell you are talking about with this stuff.

Fish

2/17, I’m an everyday reader and sometimes commenter AF vet who now works for a medium sized health plan investigating HC fraud, waste, and abuse.

2/17 Air Cav

Well, I’ll bet you are damn good at what you do. Or am I too easily impressed?

Thunderstixx

You are right on the money.
As a Nurse for many years the paperwork required continued to go up to the point that no longer do nurses do much except deal with paperwork and initial assessments.
Meds are now dispensed by people with less than 6 months education including G-Tube meds and the nurse spends more than 8 hours on filling out the proper forms for the patient to continue to qualify for insurance before they have all their money taken from them and end up on T-19 (Medical assistance).

Hack Stone

Insurance policies are based on risk. Health insurance policies factor in age, occupation, lifestyle (smoking, drug use, alcahol abuse and pre-existing conditions). If President Obama says that you cannot charge rates based on pre-existing conditions, are auto insurance companies prohibited from charging higher rates to people with multiple DUI’s?

Commissioner Wretched

Lars … health care is never, never, EVER going to be nationalized in this country. The United States of America is not a socialist nation, and a nationalized health care system is a prime example of socialism.

I don’t defend any system, by the way … the old way of doing things (pre-Obamacare) had areas that sucked, the current way of doing things has many areas that suck, and whatever follows Obamacare (in about 2017, it is beginning to appear) will have areas that suck as well. National health care is not the panacea you think it will be, for many reasons.

Foremost among them is the whole idea goes against 239 years of American tradition, and unless the government intends to ram it down the throats of its citizens – as was done with Obamacare – it just ain’t a-gonna happen.

L. Taylor

Nonsense, the US has not particular economic ideology. It is all myth making. We are a mixed market economy with aspects of socialism, fascism, capitalism.

And even in capitalism the government has a role in public goods that cannot be handled effectively by a market. Like the military and education.

Healthcare is a far different best then it was in the 18th century so the idea that healthcare should not be because early theorists did not see it as a public good is irrelevant. They were living in a time of scarcity where a prevailing belief was that population growth would exceed production. And they thought that the problem with growth was the “least desirable” population; the poor and illiterate.

You can’t take 18th century sensibilities and claim they hold true today.

Adam Smith said that the market will self correct a labor surplus because the excess labor would be able to find work and thus would die of starvation and disease. He even argued that the “least productive” and thus least useful would die and explicitly referenced children and the elderly (children were regarded as laborers and the poor elderly were considered not productive citizens).

Clearly that is not how we value life today. The pension and healthcare support most of the old timers on this board receive prove that.

2/17 Air Cav

“Nonsense…”
This may be unsettling to you, Lars, but folks here are not your intellectual inferiors. It is true that we do not all share the same talents, the same training or the same education, but the TAH community is comprised of good hearted, decent, and intelligent people. I, for one, am always willing to learn, and often do when someone references something that piques my interest but about which I know little. For that alone, I am grateful to be here. When you address folks here, you might try explaining your point of view and the basis for it, rather than using your familiar dismissive and preachy style. I know it is far too late for most of us to give you the benefit of the doubt on matters, because we can read Salon, if we wish to, and find many of the sources for your progressive message, but if you persist in hanging around, you might try it. Now, before you yell, “But he did it first!” or some such thing, keep in mind that tempers flare around here and you have an uncanny ability to bring that anger out in people. Try a little introspection. Or not. It’s up to you, of course.

L. Taylor

Healthcare will be nationalized. There is no economic way to avoid it. 17.4% of GDP is not sustainable and it will continue to skyrocket as baby boomers age.

The only way to force price controls is to nationalize it. Based on the per capita costs of every single other nationalized system and even if we create the least efficient of all the industrialized economies we would still save $1.2 trillion per year by nationalized US healthcare.

And we would increase preventive care, including herd immunity to viruses which is essential to national security.

Ex-PH2

Here’s what nationalized health care gets you, explained at this comment, right here on TAH.

http://valorguardians.com/blog/?p=62878&cpage=1#comment-2730863

If you think that won’t happen here, you are dumber than frozen mashed potatoes in the birdfeeder. But then, Lars, you DID say (and I quote) “I am dumb.”

Enjoy what’s left of your life. Ir you ever get into a bad accident and those DNR questions are in place, and you’re in a coma that lasts more than an hour, OOOOPS!

Commissioner Wretched

“There’s no economic way to avoid it.”

Bullshit. Healthcare is market driven, just like everything else involved in commerce. Look at the situation with UnitedHealth – saying they may have to pull out of Obamacare after 2016 because, as a for-profit company, they cannot afford to absorb another half-billion dollars in losses. The fact that the players in the game are few or that the numbers in the game are huge does not negate the fact that health care is market driven. It just has its very own niche market.

Besides, you haven’t answered a question posed earlier — How is health care a right? Show me in the Constitution or in subsequent law where health care is a right granted in the United States.

2/17 Air Cav

I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again. I have not walked over a single sick or dying person on the sidewalk since obamacare was enacted. Before obamacare, I saw ambulances unloading patients at bus stops and railraod stations for want of insurance. I saw bodies of the sick, the dying, and the dead in front of the police-protected doors of the local ER. It was a horror. Thank goodness for obamacare, Congress, and, most especially, John Roberts of the US Supreme Court, who, despite even the administration’s conceding that obamacare was not a tax, found that it was indeed a tax. My heroes, all!

B Woodman

Pre-O’Bozo Care. . . .
Are you sure you’re not mis-remembering the early first season episodes of The Walking Dead?

THE HORROR!!!

(yes, all of the above, 2/17 & mine, are /sarc)

Ex-PH2

Those were winos.

2/17 Air Cav

I was wondering, what with National Security Adviser Commissar’s gracing us with another appearance, who is paying for refugee health care. I’ll just leave this right here, rather than repeat the, um, ah, good news…

http://refugeehealthta.org/access-to-care/

A Proud Infidel®™

Just look at the number of hospitals that have gone broke in U.S. Border States, turning someone away from an Emergency Room is a federal offense, illegal aliens know that and they’ll go there for even a runny nose and run off leaving unpaid tabs that are picked up by everyone else. Look at the accounts coming from European medical facilities of how the “refugees” have overrun them!

Pinto Nag

Obamacare is a tax. SCOTUS confirmed that. The insurance companies don’t pay the penalty for non-coverage; we do. It only makes sense that the middlemen, the insurance companies, are just going to get the hell out of the way, and let the working stiffs pay for their insurance coverage while their tax bill goes through the roof.

I think this just might be the American version of nationalized medicine.

I’m not sure if that last was sarcasm or not. I’ll get back with you on that — sometime after my headache goes away.

nbcguy54ACTUAL

You probably should see a doctor about that headache PN…

2/17 Air Cav

“Obamacare is a tax. SCOTUS confirmed that.” It’s not that the Supreme Court confirmed that it is a tax, PN. It is that despite both sides agreeing that it is not a tax and could not be construed to be a tax, John Roberts and the four progressive/marxist/commie lawyers on the Court proclaimed that it is. If he had not done so, the Court would have had to consider the matter as everyone with at least half a brain guessed they would, through the Interstate Commerce Clause. But most everyone agreed that obamacare would have been struck down as unconstitutional if it had been decided, quite properly, through the ICC lens. Thus, the tax proclamation to uphold the law. And that’s how the US Supreme Court sets policy. I have a rather short list of people whose graves I would like to water. John Turncoat Roberts is on it.

Pinto Nag

You put it far more succinctly than I did, AC.

OldSoldier54

Our medical insurance has increased in cost significantly since that abomination passed. And much more restricted in choice.

Just as predicted.

Poetrooper

Our Humana Medicare Replacement premium went up 40% last year and Humana can’t seem to figure out how much it’s going up this year. We’ll likely get the notice of price increase on Dec. 8th, the day after the selection period closes.

Ex-PH2

And yet my auto insurance policy for this six-month premium period went up only $3/month, and my homeowner’s coverage went up $2/month. I’m much more likely to lose my car to theft or carjacking, or suffer a nasty accident on the highway, than I am to get sick or have a heart attack. My state requires auto insurance for everyone if you want to have or keep your license, but in order to deflect the cost to me in higher premiums, I have to include underinsured AND uninsured drivers in comprehensive coverage. I have to, in fact, include collision just based on the simple fact that some drunk may slam into my car AND my house some night while I’m asleep.

Statistically, the risk pool percentage for drivers is considerably higher than the risk pool percentage for humans, and yet, comprehensive/collision coverage for vehicles is considerably less costly than a simple health insurance plan.

And because the NHS system in the UK is slowly going broke, patients are now being asked if they want to sign DNR requests.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/573177/Doctors-asked-to-ask-patients-if-they-will-agree-to-DNR

Why not just ask the old farts if they want the needle instead?

Just remember, Lars the Dumb (your words!), that some day, you may be on the receiving end of that kind of thing. I hope you enjoy being treated worse than my cat.

former EM1/SS

Lars,

A simple question. Why do you think the cost of LASIK goes down every year, and the procedure gets better at the same time. COuld it be that since insurance does not cover the procedure that it could be described as, wait for it, Market Driven? If so, please consider whether health care costs as a whole would be better off paid by the consumer rather than an insurance company.

Alternate anaology, what would your car insurence cost if it covered oil changes and brake jobs?

Moron.

GDContractor

Amen!

I got a quote from an imaging center for an x-ray for my arm of $48, but I needed to have Dr’s orders in order to get it done. Instead, I went to the ER with my proof of Obamacare and they charged $512 per image.

GDContractor

… and they took about 8 x-rays including chest (2 views) when I told them my ribs were okay.

L. Taylor

Elective surgery.

You don’t suffer or die for choosing not to do it.

I am not going to argue about this. Healthcare does not follow market principles. That is a well documented fact. Occasionally some economist will publish a paper arguing otherwise, usually because he was well paid to do so, but the papers just don’t hold up to peer reviewed scrutiny.

GDContractor

So Lars The Great… tell us about the history of this. Throughout all of history health care has not followed market principles, ever?

My great grandfather spent most of his days as a young man and young father throwing up every morning. The doctor advised him to go to Mineral Wells, TX and drink the water. He did. Still sick, he moved west, waking up every morning and throwing up. Someone told him about a doctor in Ft. Worth. He got on a train, went to Ft. Worth, got his appendix removed, and never threw up in the morning again. He died a few years later in 1924 of the flu epidemic leaving no (zero) debt. How is this possible of great one Lars?

MustangCryppie

Hondo,

California doesn’t agree with your analysis:

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/20/covered-california-hey-united-healthcare-will-expand-in-our-markets/

What a bunch of Pollyannas!

2/17 Air Cav

Why does Lars think he’s in a “debate” all of the time? Anybody?

2/17 Air Cav

With so much practice, one would think he would do it well–but one would be wrong.

A Proud Infidel®™

I thought all they did was bawl for more free shit and everyone to tolerate them while they cuss at everyone that disagrees with them?

OWB

It’s more of that delusional, wishful thinking thing that they do. The reality that this is neither a forum for debate nor that he has the capacity to do it even moderately well is irrelevant. Being detached from reality is their default position, always.

L. Taylor

You could just let me post my opinion not argue with it.

Ex-PH2

Not argue? Oh, that is WRONG on so many levels.

Where does Lars the Dumb (his words!) get off thinking that he can go unchallenged and uncorrected?

He really can’t stand being told that:
A) – he’s wrong
B) – he’s incorrect
C) – his opinion is an opinion (which is acceptable, even incorrect) instead of a fact (which is his problem)
D) – see A thru C

Commissioner Wretched

Lars … that would only work if you would accept two fundamental realities:

1. Your opinion is just that – YOUR opinion.

2. Most of the time, it’s wrong.

Ex-PH2

He’s lonesome. Talking to Johnson is not giving him the release he really needs.

Roger in Republic

PJ O’Rourke said, during the Obamacare debate, that “If you think healthcare is expensive now, just wait until it’s free”. People laughed at him. I don’t think they are laughing now.

Fish

The premium increases are directly tied to benefit expenses, based on mandated coverages (lets all share the misery rather than manage it separately for those high risk members). Since regulations cap Medical Loss Ratio at 85% they can’t be raised at will to boost profits because the excess must be returned to consumers (as was noted in media reports a couple years back).

Fish

Sorry that should be minimum 85% not maximum

Fish

I’m not on the actuarial side of the business but my FWA work comes up against the ACA with regards to the MLR. FWA costs consumers about 200 Billion a year in direct losses, but the ACA regulations only allow recoveries from fraud programs to be counted towards the MLR while capping any expenses used to prevent or deter fraud from occurring in the first place.

OWB

None of this comes as a surprise to any sane human being. They always lie about their agenda. This was simply another way to screw over the American people by taking away one more freedom and breaking something which was not broken. The very idea that our government could compel us to purchase a commodity of any sort is chilling.

2/17 Air Cav

Hondo. Your explanation is on the money but knowing OWB somewhat, I would offer that she understands that voluntary aspect (if, for no other reason than her life experience) and simply omitted a qualifier or two.

GDContractor

Lars wonders why automobile insurance does not pay for new engines and new transmissions and new tires, etc. He also wonders why there are pre existing condition clauses for life insurance. Why can’t a person buy life insurance after they are dead? Fucking republicans, that’s why.

OWB

You are confusing me, Hondo! Are you agreeing or disagreeing with what I wrote??? Sounds like we said pretty much the same thing.

Yes, there are millions of people in the US who are not required to purchase auto insurance for reasons of their own choosing. No one is required to own a vehicle unless they decide to live somewhere that one would be needed, or they simply want one.

Between this, the assignment of SSN’s at birth and a few other indicators, it certainly looks like we have passed a point of no return to the freedoms of our youth. It’s all very sad.

OWB

No prob, no apology needed. Figured that was what you were saying vs what I was saying, which seemed very similar, sort of, in a different way, maybe.

Would further point out that millions upon millions of Americans need make no alteration to their lifestyles to avoid buying auto insurance. Plus, the requirements vary from state to state, and are controlled by each state. HUGE difference between that and the federales requiring the purchase of anything by the citizenry.

Charles

Meanwhile across the pond for yet another year in the decade long issue, the UK government health care system is out of money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/12005483/NHS-faces-worst-financial-crisis-in-its-history.html

L. Taylor

Misleading.

The issue is funding. Not costs. The government is reticent to fully fund it.

But in terms of actual costs the UK system if far superior to the US.

UK healthcare system costs represent 9.1% of GDP. US healthcare system costs are 17% of GDP.

Per capita costs for UK is 3,500. For the US it is 8.500.

Even if you add the 3.4Billion shortfall the article you linked claims is the high end (in dollars). It would only push the costs of the system up to 9.2% of GDP and push the cost per capita up by about $60 per person in the UK.

So using the article to argue the UK system if inferior because it is running out of money is essentially complete crap.

Fish

As I’m sure you’re aware, less expensive doesn’t guarantee superiority. it’s less expensive because it’s government controlled, and rationed. The US system costs more because it covers more, and responds faster to customer desires. The total US outlay for HC (2T+) annually, also includes elective surgeries that would never be covered by NHS. If you only count the items rationed by NHS, our GDP percentage would be a lot closer to the same. But I’m sure you know that, and would prefer a rationed single payer system as you stated before. But I know I, and many others don’t want another Trillion dollar entitlement program hanging around our necks.

Charles

Not arguing that the UK system is inferior. Rather showing how the nationalized system that they have had for over 60 years can’t sustain itself. This inability gives evidence to the detractors of the ACA, that socialized medicine as envisioned can’t work unless it either curtail services, raises costs (that affect financing to sustain it), and ultimately brings pain to those that the program is supposed to help. Again, there are plenty of folks that held NHS up as the model and it appears that the model is failing to do what is required to do.

L. Taylor

Our private healthcare system at the rate of price inflation is unsustainable.

And the UK system is sustainable for less than the cost of the US system per capita. But it needs to be funded. One way for economic liberals to kill a nationalized system is to block or strangle funding. Then when it exceeds budget they can claim it is too expensive even though it is in fact cheaper that a privatized system, only being intentionally underfunded.

Charles

Okay let’s bring this full circle to other issues in the world. Want to know a dirty secret it’s all about demographics. The birth rate in the UK until this year was in single digits. Add in that you have less and less people paying in and 3 to 4 times as many folks taking out. It is unsustainable because more is being lost than coming in via taxes.
So again then NHS system has been routinely hitting a point where it is curtailing services, raising fees for services, and having long lead time to see services. That is unless you have the money for a conceriage services from medical doctors.

Also, for a much as the folks on your side deride the economic thought of Laffer. His concept of the tax curve is pretty good concept of why you tax all you want but will eventually reach a point that folks quit paying in because they can’t live.

L. Taylor

$8,500 not 8.500

GDContractor

What kind of price discovery is going on over there in the UK, dipshit?

L. Taylor

The system is nationalized. While there is a private insurance market for those that wish to have additional, supplemental, elective or other care not provided within the national framework.

However, there are not”prices” for the nationalized system. Their are some basic participation fees when used to discourage abuse. But when you need to go to the doctor, you get treated.

The costs are the total costs of healthcare in the UK, both public (83%) and private as a percentage of GDP, and the total costs divided per capita to reach the figures above. TO reach the less than $4000 per person it costs to provide care to the entire population.

In the US the total cost per person exceed $8500 and is actually 17.4% of GDP.

So private healthcare costs are ridiculous in the US even if you control for the fact that we are generally less healthy.

People who are opposed to a nationalized healthcare system are simply uninformed. With a complex system like this there is always place where the US performs better but overall we have the worst system among developed nations.

And the most expensive.

So defending is is asinine.

And acting like an ass with comments like “What kind of price discovery is going on over there in the UK, dipshit?”

Just make you come off like an ignorant prick who has no idea what price discovery even means in the context of a national healthcare system.

I may be arrogant and obnoxious but my field is policy analysis. This is what I do. I look at these issue day in and day out for 10 hours per day. Usually even on weekends.

GDContractor

Well look 2 comments up comrade. Fish basically said the same thing, only in a much nicer tone. You piece of shit.

L. Taylor

I did not respond to fish because he flat ignored the link paper that disproves most of his assertions about the US system being better.

The US system overall is ranked LAST among industrialized nations.

It generally sucks for the vast majority of people. And most do not even realize how much it costs because they do not have to write the checks, their employers do.

L. Taylor

And no he did not say the same thing you asshat.

GDContractor

Cost analysis is meaningless when prices are set by a central authority, dipshit. That was one of the implied statements contained in Fish’s reply to you.

I just added a nice layer of “price discovery” sarcasm, but you’re too fucking stupid to get it.

GDContractor

You really are too stupid Lars…way too fucking stupid.

L. Taylor

Empirically false.

GDContractor

You make my case. Keep talking.

Ex-PH2

And yet, Lars the Dumb IS he who said (his own words) ‘I am dumb.’

Empirically, GDC is correct.

GDContractor

And Mr. Anal-ist..
Please point out where I defended the current system, you moron.

Fish

Hey now…I used to be the AF equivalent of Lars’ 98C SIGINT Analyst. We’re called Anal-cysts.

GDContractor

LOL…my apologies

A Proud Infidel®™

Yeah BUT YOU have a brain, common sense, competence and a sense of humor, things that Larsie-parsie-pinky-poo never had and likely never will, he’ll always be a bitter petulant little turd somewhere bawling about how the rest of the world is all fuxxed up!

Fish

So taxes out the wazoo to fund, still have to pay the copay, sorry “participation fee”, and then still buy a supplemental plan to get more than the basics covered. Medicare for all it is. The last thing I want government anywhere near is a “complex system”. I know, I used to be “the government”, and the best and brightest aren’t there.

GDContractor

You know, from what I heard, the Soviet Union made a marvelously affordable washing machine. I bet there are still people on the waiting list to get one.

Fish

Dah !

A Proud Infidel®™

YEAH, and look at the cars made in the Eastern bloc back in the Iron Curtain days! In West Germany, folks were stuck with Volkswagens, Porsches, Audis, Beemers or Mercedes while those in East Germany didn’t have to suffer Western Capitalist decadencs like that, after close to a ten year wait, they got to purchase one of these beauties made by a State-owned car company, the one and only Trabant with a composite body and a slim little 2-stroke air-cooled engine. No fuel pump, you’d just need to put fuel in the 5-gallon tank under the hood by the engine (NO FUEL PUMP, the gas goes to the carburetor via gravity) and the joy of a balky column shift manual transmission!! LOOK AT das kraftschmanschipp, aahh, the wonders of Socialism,…

Fish

Gotta love the precision of the foot and mallet adjustments.

A Proud Infidel®™

JAWOHL! 😀

MrBill

“May be”?

Are.

AW1Ed

Had to look up SCoaMF, just like “Dutch Rudder” as I was blissfully unaware of the meaning of either.

Neither will be useful in polite company. Good thing I don’t have much of that.

AW1Ed

LOL!

2/17 Air Cav

Too funny.
“I warned you not to google SCOAME.”

“Waiting for waffles.”

Martinjmpr

I’m not quite cynical enough to believe that Obamacare was intended to fail from the start but I think the people who pushed this saw it as a “win-win” scenario for them.

What I mean is this: MOST of the people who really pushed this (including Obama and Hillary) really wanted socialized, single-payer healthcare, i.e. the US government pays all health care bills and then taxes the nation to pay for it.

They figured (correctly) that this was not politically palatable so they pushed a system of de facto socialized medicine by passing a law that requires every person in America to enter into a contractual relationship with a private entity, i.e. a health care company.

(Personally I think that it’s unconstitutional for the Federal government to order a private citizen to enter into a contract with a private entity, since that’s not within the specified powers of the Federal government but then again what do I know about the law? I just have a Juris Doctorate and have been a member of the bar for 9 years.)

Anyway, I think in their minds they figured “heck, maybe this will work!” If it worked, then everyone would sign up for health care and they’d be Big Damn Heroes for putting the whole thing together.

But if it DIDN’T work, if premiums skyrocketed, if young, healthy people STILL refused to sign up for health care, then they could blame it all on the Big Bad Insurance Companies that are just in it for the profit, maaaan!!!!

And in THAT circumstance, taking the insurance companies out of the equation – either by replacing them with a Federal agency or by subsidizing them to the extent that the private insurer becomes a de facto Government Agency – all of a sudden becomes a lot more politically viable and politically possible, and since single-payer is what they all wanted to begin with, they call that a “win.”

It’s a long, tortuous route to get to the same place, but hey if it gets us there, it gets us there, right? 😉

Fish

I agree with the overall idea, where they fall short in their Step 3: Profit !! plan is not mandating that all insurers participate in the exchanges. My plan actually formed a separate corp entity specifically for the exchange. So that when it dies, and I’m sure it eventually will, it doesn’t kill the entire tree.

GDContractor

Interesting Planet Money podcast about 3 weeks ago about price discovery. You might find it interesting.

Fish

Along the same lines, health care price transparency is evolving. It looks like a good idea where you can “shop” prices.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150618006234/en/HealthSparq-Named-Portland-Business-Journal%E2%80%99s-Fastest-Growing-Private

GDContractor

This is the company the podcast focused on:

“We empower people to shop for health care like an expert by providing online tools that help you weigh your options and make a decision with confidence. You can search for experienced doctor who meet your needs, compare costs for procedures and appointments and read patient ratings and reviews. You can even earn cash incentives when you shop and save on your health care.”

http://www.vitals.com/about

So if Vitals and the paient conspire to save the company money, part of the savings is kick backed to the patient in the form of cash. Pretty interesting implications….

Fish

Sounds similar. Anything to help consumers be educated is going to help drive down cost.

GDContractor
Ex-PH2

Well, you see, the socialized medical industry in the UK is slowly going broke and cutting back on services and a whole of things that are actually necessary, like a hospital within a reasonable distance for emergency treatment.

Some day, we may be back to doctors and/or nurses making house calls, like they used to do.

nbcguy54ACTUAL

Blame the NRA and global warming…

Charles

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/nov/19/nhs-strikes-junior-doctors-vote-action-bma

To go with the NHS can’t fund itself. The junior doctors, nurses and medics have been threatening strikes that will close everything but ERs. Why the strikes? Better pay and better working hours. As it stands right now a doctor under 10 yrs in NHS gets the equivalent of 15/hr with the debt load of an MD program track. Then work 180hr pay period work weeks and mandatory weekends on call for 48 hours. So who is paying for these hours? The patients that are harmed by medical malpractice established conditions of long working hours and low pay.

GDContractor

I love listening to Mark Steyn go off on all the BS going on over there…. licensed pall bearers and all… LOL

PigmyPuncher

The AHA is working as designed. It will ultimately fail. In the end, .gov will have to step in to save the day and force everyone on a single payer system with .gov running the show – which is what they wanted but couldn’t get passed initially. FFS, look at the VA as a shining example of government run healthcare, and Obama care won’t even be that good.. Now, for those of you who do not live in a country with socialized medicine, let me give you the cliff notes:

Government can’t run jack – don’t believe me, find ONE program that runs at or below cost, and delivers what it promised – hell, for that matter find a single program that delivers any one of the three criteria above…
Cost of this disaster will exceed it’s budget and congress will appropriate even more tax money to ‘save it’. This will result in more/higher taxes. When the public finally seems pissed enough about their ever increasing tax rates, they’ll start a VAT to get the rest..

Efforts to control costs will result in a a scaled service based on risk/age. i.e. your parents will not qualify for chemo as it will be determined to be too risky and expensive for the result.

Business will flee to 3rd world countries to avoid labor costs (I mean worse than now).

congress still won’t care -they have an exempt plan that YOU cant’ have.

GDContractor

Bingo. Meanwhile my dog and my cows will continue to have affordable access to the best veterinary care in the world.

2/17 Air Cav

Pygmy Puncher? Where have you been? Dammit. One of the two top screen names at TAH (the other Herman J. Messkit) and you have been MIA for months. Nice to see you–well, read you, that is.

Ex-PH2

I have said this before as a joke, but in reality, it is not. I can get better and more immediate care at a veterinarian’s office for my cat than I can get under the ACA and the VA health care system. In addition, the cost is considerably lower for everything, including surgery, with a veterinarian than it is with human medical care? Why would that be? It isn’t because my vet doesn’t use the latest available medications or procedures or equipment. In fact, the local VA hospital has the same digital X-ray equipment as my vet’s hospital does, but the cost for a digital X-ray at the vet’s office is $85 for a series, whereas at a non-vet facility, the cost will be some place on the order of $450 to $750 for a similar X-ray series. Granted, it didn’t cost me anything at the VA clinic, because I did enroll in their HCBennies program long ago. But the disconnect between animal care costs and human care costs is absolutely market-driven and to say it is not is drivel. And you cannot allude it to size, either. My cat is the same size as a healthy human infant, 15 pounds (of love) and could easily fit into a onesie with a diaper. Yet the cost of doing an X-ray series on the human infant far exceeds the same cost for my cat. I took my cat to the vet for a 3-day stay to get a tumor removed from his tail. The total cost, including room and board, was less than $700, and that included surgery, aftercare, and amusing him because he detests being kept in a cage. (He has a lot of fans at the vet’s office.) The same thing for a human patient would cost an unconscionably high amount that health insurance used to cover at 100%, or 80% plus a 20% co-pay, depending on your coverage and carrier. When I was working, my health insurance cost $745/month, for 100% coverage, plus $10 Rx co-payments. I paid half and my employer paid the other half. I also… Read more »

GDContractor

Right on ExPH2. And another thing, in Dallas there are brand new urgent care clinics popping up like weeds. Meanwhile, in the rural counties, county hospitals have been closing at an accelerated rate.

From what I have seen, veterinary clinics are very stable in comparison.

I have talked to many MD’s that bitch and moan about the status quo, but haven’t heard the same complaints from veterinarians. They all seem happy with the system they operate within.

My Grandfather and his teo brothers grew up dirt poor. They became Civil Engineers, with one brother becoming an MD. They all worked their way through school. My MD Great-Uncle went to war in the ’40s and was a flight surgeon with the 8th AF stationed in England. He came home to San Antonio and ran his practice until his death. One day a week he would go over to the poor side of town and donate his services in a clinic there. Medical insurance has enabled a shit ton of waste fraud and abuse. If our current concept of health insurance was transferred to vehicles, we would get engines repaired or replaced for “free”, which is stupid considering that people would pour sand in their crankcase, neglect oil changes, etc.

My arm is in a cast and I am too lazy to type more…. But Lars is right, there is no price discovery for human med care. But that is not how it always was. Insurance companies and the government have screwed it all up. Lars never took a course in game theory, obviously.

Ex-PH2

I am more and more convinced that Lars the Dumd (his words!) is a kundis.

https://youtu.be/VDJehCXMKwI

Perhaps we can find him a guru.