Gertz: Coup in China?
If it was anyone except Bill Gertz, I wouldn’t even mention it, but in his column today “Inside the Ring” in the Washington Times, Gertz says that bloggers are reporting gunfire and tanks in the streets in Beijing near the Politburo;
The Internet discussions included photos posted online of tanks and other military vehicles moving around Beijing.
The reports followed the ouster last week of senior Politburo member and Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai, who was linked to corruption, but who is said to remain close to China’s increasingly nationalistic military.
Chinese microblogging sites Sina Weibo, QQ Weibo, and the bulletin board of the search engine Baidu all reported “abnormalities” in Beijing on the night of March 19.
Of course, Chinese censors removed the comments on blogs soon after they posted. It’s good that the Chinese are preoccupied with their own problems for a minute or two.
Thanks to Old Trooper for the link.
Category: Foreign Policy
This can’t be a good thing.
Word will get out and get out soon. Beijing is a pretty open city in the sense that you can move around most places. There are hundreds of thousands of tourists there at any given time. Our tour guide was a pesky lawyer who was on a government watch list, but although we got plenty of scrutiny, we were never stopped or questioned. When we weren’t with him, we were barely noticed.
Pretty crazy to think about, China has been very good at projecting a very unified image the past few decades.
It is also a little frustrating in this day and age of instant news and communication that we don’t know whats going on, I hope some news leaks out.
I would think watching the stock market might give you your first hint as to the seriousness of the situation. They’ll get nervous if China flips seriously.
I’m not convinced, but here’s some additional news items on this:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/worldview/why-the-coup-rumours-in-china-arent-going-away/article2376711/
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/03/uh-no-one-knows-if-there-was-coup-china/50168/
Some of the supposed pictures that have been sent around are actually fakes, and I’d wager that with the enormous international and diplomatic presence in Beijing, if tanks and troops were on the streets, we’d have heard more about it and seen plenty of authentic shots. That doesn’t rule out a shift in the upper levels of the government, but it would mean it’s more ‘politics’ than ‘coup’.
LC
@5: I wouldn’t give it creedence, either, but when you have US intel sources talking about it, you have to give some credibility to the possibility that there has been some changes in the upper echelons of the Chinese government.
@6
Oh, I certainly expect our IC is paying keen attention to things, not only because of the potential ramifications but because in politics even rumors have power, and tracking how these begin and gain traction is useful.
Also, the rumors focus on Bo Xilai, who only a week ago was dismissed from his position within the CCP. Here’s some additional background on the events leading up to that:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Lijun_incident
Prior to all that, Bo Xilai was expected to assume a position on the 9-member PSC come November of this year, so there’s certainly motivation for his actions behind the rumors, but I’m still leaning towards it being nothing.
Short version: There are some very definite shifts in the upper echelons of the Chinese government, but I don’t think a coup attempt was made, let alone it being successful. Since the markets are beginning to react to the rumors, though, China will need to address this in the next day or so.
When the PRC launches an all-or-nothing invasion of the RoC, I’d maybe believe there’s a coup d’etat going on in the PRC.
If the PLA’s warlords haven’t been unchained, not much is happening.
Did read about how PRC’s peasants are busy growing whatever foodstuffs they can, wherever they can. I can’t find the source, and the article’s author suggested that the panic-farming by the peasants means they are ripe to support a revolt by someone.
Fortunately for us, we still have Obama and Hillary – their “Reset” button will likely take us back to heady days of American dominance not seen since 1750.