Iranian Influence in Iraq: Getting the Facts Straight

A frequent argument against American policies in Iraq is that we have in essence made Iraq a proxy state of Iran by removing the Baathist regime and allowing the Shia majority to take control of a majority of the new government. This argument has become more frequently used to the attack the war in Iraq, especially in the wake of the Surge and declining violence in Iraq. With the parliamentary elections next week, some in the media have said that these elections will in effect enable Iran to dominate Iraq. However, to say that Iran currently wields or will eventually gain complete control over the current Iraqi government or Shia majority is to ignore many facts about the complexities of Iraq’s cultural and politics. There is no doubt that Iran has influence over certain Shia political groups and armed militias. However, there are ethnic, political, and foreign factors that prevent Iran from completely dominating Iraq.

Iraqi Arab Shia, while having a religious connection with the majority of Iranians, are ethnically different from the Iranians who are mostly Persian. For thousands of years, there has been tension and conflict between Arabs and Persians, even before the rise of Islam and the Sunni/Shia spilt. As we found out during the Anbar Awakening where Sunni tribes came together to reject foreign Sunni Islamist terrorists, ethnic loyalties often trump religious ones. Many Shia also fought in the war against Iran in the 1980s’, and many veterans of that conflict still harbor resentment towards the Iranians. More importantly, the other two dominant groups in Iraq (the Sunni Arabs and Kurds) are wary of Iranian influence. The Kurds especially have a long history fighting the Iranians and despite their minority status wield a lot of influence in the government. These ethnic tensions are a huge impediment to Iranian influence in Iraq.

Politically, many groups that are influenced by Iran aren’t politically united. The Sadrists and those aligned with Maliki are often portrayed as being in Iran’s pocket. However, Maliki’s government and the Sadrists have frequently engaged in armed conflict, often on a massive scale. Many other Shia religious groups consider Sadr a lunatic, and Iran’s support of him has alienated some of those groups from Iran. This inhibits Iran’s ability to exert political influence over Iraq’s Shia population. Current political instability in Iran also effects their ability to influence Iraqi politics. The popular opposition to the current Iranian administration has forced the Iranian government to focus more resources on suppressing political dissent, particularly Basiji militia and Revolutionary Guard forces. These forces provide training and support to Sadrist and other pro-Iranian militias. By drawing resources away from these Iraqi groups, they weaken them and by extension weaken their influence in Iraq.

Iraq’s relations with other countries in the region also effect their relationship with Iran. An example of this is Iraq’s relationship with Syria. Iran and Syria have over the past decade grown very close (despots stick together) and have important military and economic ties. However, Syria has been the biggest supporter of the Sunni insurgency, allowing freedom of movement for insurgents and weapons across its border. The Syrian government is also sheltering many former members of the Baathist regime, some wanted by the Iraqi government for crimes against humanity. In response to these factors, Iraq recently moved thousands of troops to its border with Syria to send a message that Syria needed to do more to limit the flow of foreign fighters into the country. Many of Iraq’s Arab neighbors (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) also fear Iranian influence in the Persian Gulf. While Iraqi relations with these countries has been frosty in the last few years, Iraq needs these countries to guarantee access to foreign oil markets. Aligning themselves closer to Iran, would isolate Iraq further from those countries.

Iraq is a very complex country, culturally and politically. This complexity has created instablity and caused problems for the US, but ultimately it can work to America’s advantage. Iraq’s diversity means that it is hard for one country in the Middle East to completely dominate Iraq culturally and politically. There is no doubt that Iran exerts influence in certain circles in Iraq. But portraying Iraq as an Iranian vassal completely ignores important facts about Iraq itself. However, as I say over and over again on TAH, this has been the MSM’s MO in most of its coverage of Iraq.

Category: Foreign Policy, Media, Terror War