How long does it take to ramp up?

I have long been a proponent of the argument that you can argue technology, quality of weapons, morale etc. till the cows come home. The things that win wars are production and logistics. Production, because it is the nature of war to break stuff (and people.) Logistics because all that material has to get to the battlefield in a timely manner, neither too early nor far worse, too late. The Civil War was won not because the North’s cause was holy, it was won because the North out-spent the South and bought more guns, powder, shot, and food than the South possibly could. Result? Even with Lee in command, the South got licked. Then there is Germany, who in WWII arguable had at worst state of the art weaponry (the Mauser M98K is still one of the great battle rifles) the StG-44, flying rocket bombs, the best tanks – all kinds of high-tech goodies – and sheer numbers of Russians with Moisins and GIs with M1s rolled up in deuce and a halfs, Shermans, and T-34s and kicked some serious butt.  Germany never got fully mechanized, and did not have the supplies and supply lines to deliver fuel and ammo.

But how long does a country take to ramp up production of those kinds of numbers? WWII took us into 1943 before we were really cranking ’em out. Most countries’ economies are not built on the profligate waste of a wartime economy.  We, and most of our allied countries, are providing Ukraine resupply of armaments.

Ukraine struggles to hold lines amid ammo shortages  CNN

Ukrainian forces are suffering from a shortage of artillery shells on the front line, prompting some units to cancel planned assaults, soldiers said, and stoking fears over how long Kyiv’s troops will be able to hold their ground against continuing Russian attacks.  Washington Post

We’ve read how North Korea is supplying Russia with 155mm arty shells. (however unreliable they may be – modified per thebesig.) Meanwhile,

Days later, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked $55 billion in European Union assistance to Ukraine. Washington Post

Ukraine notes that when they shoot down Russian drones and missiles, they are finding Western tech which obviously is slipping past the sanctions we have emplaced.

the presence of Western computer components in the drones is physical evidence that Russia has bypassed sanctions in its efforts to create weapons and kill Ukrainians.

“The most valuable thing these drones can reveal is whether their design is being changed [to decrease the effectiveness of Ukrainian defences]. But the main benefit is the ability to take the surviving remains [of the UAVs] and once again show our partners whose components Iran and Russia are using in their weapons destined to kill Ukrainians, in order to strengthen the oversight of sanctions.”  Ukrayinska Pravda

Back to the Post:

Artem said his unit was now firing just 10 to 20 shells per day at enemy targets, while previously it used an average of 50 shells, and sometimes up to 90. He spoke on the condition that he be identified only by first name in keeping with Ukrainian military rules.

Ukrainian soldiers stationed at the front said they have not detected any sign that Russia is facing a similar shortage of artillery shells.  Washington Post

You would think a good indicator might be battle tanks – they are complex, pricey, and material intensive.  Russia has lost 365 since October as of Monday… but has production ramped to build 100/month, so even faster than they are losing them.   Business Insider

How long would it take us to ramp up to 100 M1s a month? (Per thebesig, they are refurbing damaged tanks, not building new ones and Brit Intelligence is mistaken. Again – if an M1 was damaged enough to take it out of action could we refurb 100/month? I doubt it. )Something to think about, as we throw expensive missiles at cheap Houthi drones.

Category: 2024 Election, Big Pentagon, None, Russia, Ukraine