The Russians will stop providing the US with advanced notices on nuclear capable missile tests

| March 31, 2023

The Russians have decided that they will no longer notify the U.S. of its missile tests. The Russians have declared that they have stopped information exchanges with their American counterparts. This comes after the Russians decided to suspend their participation in the final nuclear arms pact with the U.S. The advanced warnings that both sides provided the other side assisted with understanding that a launch was a test and not the real deal.

From the Military Times:

Along with the data about the current state of the countries’ nuclear forces routinely released every six months in compliance with the treaty, the parties also have exchanged advance warnings about test launches. Such notices have been an essential element of strategic stability for decades, allowing Russia and the United States to correctly interpret each other’s moves and make sure that neither country mistakes a test launch for a missile attack.

The termination of missile test warnings marks yet another attempt by Moscow to discourage the West from ramping up its support for Ukraine by pointing to Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal. In recent days, President Vladimir Putin announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the territory of Moscow’s ally Belarus.

Last month, Putin suspended the New START treaty, saying Russia can’t accept U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites under the agreement at a time when Washington and its NATO allies have openly declared Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine as their goal. Moscow emphasized that it wasn’t withdrawing from the pact altogether and would continue to respect the caps on nuclear weapons the treaty set.

The Military Times has the rest of the article here.

Category: International Affairs, Russia

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KoB

And the Eve of Destruction edges closer.

Ex-PH2

Is this going to be like that time the Soviets set off a Tsar Bomba in 1961? And didn’t tell us? But we found out, anyway?

The Tsar Bomba packed a punch of over 50 megatons, which is the equivalent of 50 million tons of conventional explosives. That’s 10 times more powerful than all the munitions expended during World War Two and over 1,500 times the force of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. – article

https://www.iflscience.com/tsar-bomba-the-biggest-nuclear-bomb-ever-detonated-65978

KoB

So good to see your posts again, Mi’Lady. You have been sorely missed. Am grilling grounded chuck beef beast as we speak. I reckon that you’ll be wanting some good cheddar cheese on yours? Tater salad and cold slaw?

It will not be good to see canned sunshine opened up. My proximity to a major military target (18 air miles) means that I will see the flash just a nano second before I am incinerated.

Hate_me

Just remember your training. Find a ditch, put your helmet between you and the blast, and keep your arms tucked tight to your sides so the nuclear wind doesn’t rip them off.

You’ll be fine. This is how super powers are born.

rgr769

Welcome back. The commie cuttlefish just piped up, too. So, you will have something to chew on.

Hate_me

Welcome back.

Thankfully, energy release is only one factor in the effectiveness of an explosion. Incidentally, the equivalence is based on one Kg of TNT; while it’s still used, I wouldn’t say it is a conventional explosive (C4 and most other common charges are stronger).

For instance, when Mount Saint Helens erupted in 1980, estimates median around 28Mt (estimates vary a lot) while Little Boy was “only” 20Kt. Due to location, among other factors, only 57 people died and there was just over $1 billion (~$3.5B, adjusted) in property damage.

At first blush, Tsar Bomba’s ~58Mt explosion trumps MSH’s 12-50Mt eruption, but scales and estimates vary and there’s a big difference between a short ton, tonne, and long ton). Mount Saint Helens was a relatively middling eruption.

This was, on the VEI scale, only a 5 (>1 cubic Km ejecta) – the same as Hunga-Tonga which is estimated at ~61Mt. Pinatubo (VEI-6, >10 cu. Km) was relatively equivalent to 70Mt of TNT. None have had the lasting environmental impact of the puny 25Kt Trinity nuclear test (which introduced elements such as cæsium-137 into the atmosphere).

While all volcanic eruptions release radioactive elements, human nuclear testing released radioactive elements that were not naturally found in the environment. Granted, the biggest impact this has had on human life is a better way to test if wine was bottled before 1945. Caesium-137 is also among the primary reasons why the Chernobyl site is uninhabitable.

But I digress. Ultimately, explosive force means little if it’s not properly directed, and bigger bombs rarely equate to better or more destructive bombs. Short of denying access to everyone including oneself, massive nukes offer diminishing returns. Stuff like Tsar Bomba is a flex, it’s the smaller and more useful stuff that should scare us.

Skippy

They stopped a few years ago
this is now making news

Anonymous

Not that they gave a sh*t anyway.

5JC

You know how like when you are playing a pickup game, of like say football, and the other team talks a lot of shit and then starts losing real bad right away? And then the Captain of other team gets upset. They then try cheating and it doesn’t work and then they start crying? And because they don’t know how to play and are getting reamed they now want to start a fight?

That is where we are now.

Anonymous

Love how the Russkies learned why we decided not to produce that nuclear-power cruise missile we built during the Cold War the hard way.

Amateur Historian

And so with this news, the White House, fully committed to the defense of the United States, now dusts off old plans and schematics that were drawn up for missile interceptors by Reagan’s old Strategic Defense Initiative.

Oh, wait. Biden and his team of incompetents are at the helm. Nevermind!

Commissar

Putin is a sociopathic clown and a fucking moron.

The one thing that is essential in the nuclear balance of power is removing ambiguity, He is choosing to increase ambiguity as a form of brinkmanship.

He is playing Russian roulette with the gun pointed at the world.

This fuckstain is willing to risk burning down the world in order to cover up what an abysmal failure he has been for Russia.

He was a failure even before he invaded Ukraine and revealed to the world what many already knew; Russia was a corruption riddled failed state, with and incompetent and desiccated army.

Every aspect of Russia has been in decline since he rose to power.

timactual

“The one thing that is essential in the nuclear balance of power is removing ambiguity,”

LOL
“Strategic ambiguity” was NATO’s (the US) policy on use of nukes for as far back as I can remember.

“The NATO alliance has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity when it comes to nuclear policy,…”
https://www.cfr.org/blog/natos-deterrence-problem-analog-strategy-digital-age

Took me about 30 seconds to find that one, after which I stopped looking.

Commissar

“Strategic Ambiguity” is not how you are framing it.

Nuclear strategists have long affirmed ambiguity and lack of clarity of intentions is dangerous and leads to increase risk of nuclear escalation.

However, US strategists thought being perfectly clear would cede too much power and allow Russia to push right up to the any clearly defined lines in the sand.

So they left a small, strategically calculated amount of ambiguity to deter Russian encroachment.

The very concept of “strategic ambiguity” presumes that ambiguity is dangerous yet paradoxically can reduce escalation.

And it was exceedingly controversial. Probably wrong.

That is not the same as what Putin is doing. Putin is increasing ambiguity as a form of brinkmanship and retaliation…the exact opposite of the very calculated ambiguity “strategic ambiguity” refers to.

Last edited 10 months ago by Commissar
timactual

“So they left a small, strategically calculated amount of ambiguity”

Even more laughs. How do you calculate a “small, strategic” amount of ambiguity?

ambiguity;
“doubtfulness or uncertainty of meaning or intention: to speak with ambiguity; an ambiguity of manner.
an unclear, indefinite, or equivocal word, expression, meaning, etc.: ”

You do realize your attempt to define something as ambiguous as “strategic ambiguity”, not to mention the intent and definition used by those who use the term, are ridiculous, don’t you?

Commissar

Your response is similar to someone saying “the increase in the number and severity of forest fires is dangerous” and your responding “LOL, firefighters sometimes start forest fires”, then posting a link about controlled burns.

Forest Bondurant

Commissar is like the pony tailed fuckwit in the bar scene of “Good Will Hunting”. He finds a quote and uses it has his own without giving attribution.

Several people, including me, have caught and called him out for that in the past.

Hate_me

Nice to know, at least, that your myopia is still loyal against America’s enemies.

Russia’s broad decline started long before Putin ever rose to power (arguably, since Lenin left Siberia). Objectively, it has been resurgent in some respects since Putin’s been at the helm.

Commissar

I despise Putin more than this forum does.

And unlike many on this forum I have never defended or claimed to admire him.

Regulars on here have literally been Putin apologists, and continued to be even after the invasion of Ukraine.

I also posted here long ago that Russia under Putin was kleptocratic a failed state with a desiccated army and that anyone “admires” Putin for his leadership is a moron.

I was not surprised Putin’s invasion of Russia failed.

Yet, Trump, and many of his supporters think Putin is brilliant and will eventually succeed in Russia.

I honestly think some of the users here actively promote Russian propaganda, and too many willfully believe it.

I also despise Xi.

Dave Hardin

As you know, my wife is Ukrainian, you should also know her mother was only a few miles from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant the night it was bombed. She is now safely here with us, that was no small feat to achieve.
 
“This Forum” is run by me and it is a living attestation to the fact that veterans do not have a monolith of belief on any issue.
 
Using words like “some” or “many” does not adequately diminish the false stereotype that you are projecting about the people who make up this “Forum”. You are a member of “This Forum”.
 
Just because some members of “This Forum” do not comment on a particular post or issue does not mean their position should be projected by you or anyone else. 
 
I voted for Trump twice, I still maintain it was the best choice at the time. There are “many” of us in that “some” that do not and never have supported Putler.  

Last edited 10 months ago by Dave Hardin
timactual

” the best choice at the time.”

Aye, there’s the rub. Cliches like “The lesser of two evils” are cliches because they are true.

Of course we can stay at home and let others soil their hands while we maintain our moral purity (and the purity of our bodily essences) by not choosing either evil.

timactual

“And unlike many on this forum I have never defended or claimed to admire him. Regulars on here have literally been Putin apologists ”

Well, that certainly clashes with my memories. Perhaps you can back up that statement with a bit of evidence?

On the contrary, in my opinion this site, and others, tend to be rather Russo-phobic.
Perhaps that makes me one of your Putin apologists. If that’s all it takes, then I confess. Proudly.

SFC D

“I despise Putin more than this forum does.

And unlike many on this forum I have never defended or claimed to admire him.

Regulars on here have literally been Putin apologists, and continued to be even after the invasion of Ukraine.“

You gotta be shitting me.

5JC

He is talking about Roh.

Fyrfighter

Out of curiosity Commissar, under which weak ass, incompetent POTUS does Putin feel safe enough and emboldened enough to make such a move????

I’ll wait…

A Proud Infidel®™

IIRC he worships Bernie Sanders, what a surprise.

Prior Service

Prediction: Russia will pop up with a nuclear capability they shouldn’t have had under the treaty, but faster than it could possibly have been developed and fielded. Plot twist: press and the Dems (yeah, I know) will blame it on Trump and cite as an example of him “weakening NATO”….