More fun than now?

As thebesig reported,, we theoretically have a two-week cease-fire with the Iranians. I say theoretically because from what I read, the terms are not fully agreed, and it seems we either negotiated a cease-fire without the Israelis or they failed to participate as we thought they should, so their attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon have the Iranians threatening to shut down the Straits of Hormuz again.

Such agreements should be looked at with a jaundiced eye, as both the US and Iran have a bad history of ignoring agreements. (Think we’re pure as the new driven snow? Ask some of the people we promised to stand by forever, like the Afghans and Vietnamese.) Realpolitik runs everyone’s actions in the real world. And there seem to be some gray areas where Iran says one thing and we say another. Mr. Trump supposedly said the Straits are fully open – but the Iranians have released statements mentioning things like “passage with prior arrangement with the Revolutionary Guard” or that a dozen ships a day could pass, a opposed to Mr. Trump’s “fully open” statement.

But hey, there is always the other side of Saudi Arabia. The east side, where Dubai is and which is which is bottlenecked  by the Straits, is not the only way to get oil out. The Red Sea, on the west side of SA, may not have the shipping port capacity of the east side, but at least it’s open, right? Maybe not as much as we would like – because of the country to the Saudi’s south – Yemen.

Anyone here remember December?

As a result of today’s attacks and the near-miss yesterday on the Maersk Gibraltar, the Danish Maersk shipping company told us today that it is instructing all its ships scheduled to pass through the Bab al-Mandab to “pause their journey until further notice.”

“We are deeply concerned about the highly escalated security situation in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the company said in a statement to The War Zone. “The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the area are alarming and pose a significant threat to the safety and security of seafarers.”  TWZ

Well, the Houthis in Yemen are getting a little froggy again.

Europe’s Red Sea naval task force tells us it is prepared for the resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the region. The Iranian proxy group has already launched several ballistic missile strikes against Israel since joining the ongoing war in the Middle East over the weekend. Now there is growing concern that the Houthis could effectively shut down the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti.

A new Houthi offensive would be a major cudgel for Iran, because it would open a new front in the war and draw in military resources at a time when they are heavily involved in Epic Fury. A potential activation of the Houthis is arguably Tehran’s biggest military card left to play, but just how much control Tehran retains over the Houthis is unclear. TWZ II

This is all still very much up in the air. Or, to quote the famous military philosopher “Who knows what those squirrelly little bastards will do?”

Category: Iran