USAF 4-star predicts war with China for 2025

| January 28, 2023

USAF General Mike Minihan (pictured) is the commander of the Air Mobility Command (AMC), which oversees all Air Force strategic and tactical airlift as well as aerial refueling. He’s the only general officer I’ve seen limit his displayed awards for his official photo to only his unit awards. The Air Force has an “all or some” regulation when it comes to wearing ribbons on most uniforms. As with our Navy brothers, this is usually interpreted as your top three awards. To me, it says something about the man that he chose only his unit awards for his photo. That’s one thing in his favor.

The other is how he channels his inner General Mattis when it comes to our country’s enemies. In September of 2022 he told a military conference the Air Force was responsible for the biggest “pile of our nation’s enemy dead” among the branches of the American military and that “[w]hen you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger.”

Anyway, he’s releasing a memo on 1 Feb that focuses on preparing the chronically overworked AMC for what he sees as the perfect storm of opportunity in 2025 for China to make a move on Taiwan.

The Drive has the story;

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” Minihan’s memo says bluntly by way of introduction. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. [The] United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”

Category: Air Force, China

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Old tanker

The chinese do not need a distraction in the US to proceed with anything. They own president dementia already.

Other than that I can’t say he is wrong in his assessment. I also doubt the chinese election is any kind of issue. They will keep their strongest oligarch in power as long as he has the support of the military. The “election” is for show.

I do have to say that a senior military general who has a warrior attitude is a refreshing change from miley and the rest of the sycophants.


Chicoms can go now. If Russia had crushed Ukraine in 3- 5 days (like Czechoslovakia in ’68) and we’d redeployed major forces to Europe because of that, they’d have moved on Taiwan already.

Late spring/early summer is the best time for this; e.g., D-Day, Battle of Midway, North Korea invading South Korea in 1950, Operation Barbarossa, etc.

pookysgirl, WC wife

According to various discussions I’ve seen, the best time of year for China to cross the Taiwan Strait is October or April.


I agree that this guy seems to have the warrior mindset, like Mattie and Patton. He projects himself as humble with his rack display. Maybe he’s the leader the military needs when China kicks it off. Because he’s right. China will do something. The Spratley Islands, Philippines, Taiwan, etc.


“… this guy seems to have the warrior mindset, like Mattie and Patton. … Maybe he’s the leader the military needs”

When “warriors” lead, I look reeal hard for a REMF job. I prefer to be led by soldiers, myself.


It’s coming.
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USMC Steve

Yeah, but they really didn’t do so well back then with that.


When U of Krane goes Nuclear, China will sit back for a while and wait for the clean up, then make that move.

The New Draft goes to all Liberals and the LGBTQRST etc.. groups first!


Hey, y’all talked about a “right” to serve– here ya go!


Equal rights mean equal responsibilities, don’t they?


Everybody wants to be in the Army until it’s time to do Army stuff.


True that.


Taiwan will be no easy walk in the park for Xi. Island is not easily accessible for amphibious landings and the people there despise the Red Commies across the water.

Of course, if they’re okay with completely obliterating the island until there’s absolutely nothing left, then I wouldn’t put that past them either.


The main reason for the Aegis program is Taiwan’s defense.
Well, maybe third or fourth behind politics, graft
and other issues.




Some rack for a 4-star.


Nuke ’em from space?

Mayhaps we can pray that the Wuhan-bat flu hits ’em gooder and harder.

If, and a big “if” at that, we were smart, the USA would be fostering dissent and unrest amongst the people of China – that ought to distract Xi a wee bit.

Mike B

The awards he’s wearing are unit awards. L to R

Joint Meritorious Unit Award, Meritorious Unit Award, and Air Force Outstanding Unit Award.


Interesting, I had thought the same about the 2024 US elections. Jan 2025 is my guess for war.


Navy SINKEX 2025. “Turkeyshoot 2: Taipei Boogaloo.

They can’t land an invasion without us sending 75+% to Davy Jones. Ditto any resupply effort. If we (or anyone else with capable boats) get blunt about mining CCP harbors, their world comes apart.

Has anyone tried loading Harpoon on a B-52, B-1, or B-2? Imagine a wing volleying bombers-full of those puppies.


Damn, Mail, this old dog volleyed off a full load of potential puppies just thinking about that sight. Got a cigarette?

How did this Warrior slip past the Oblowme purges? He needs to fly out of the danger zone and put those Warrior Speak thoughts on ice, man. I expect that his goose is cooked by being maverick and the payback will be him being asked to quietly resign. You know…so he can spend more time with his family…before he is sent to the re-education camps.


Well, seeing as he’s already a cargo pilot, I guess it’s a short step to flying a cargo plane full of rubber dog shit out of Hong Kong…🤣


Hmm, I’m a grunt by training and experience, so naval warefare and tactics isnt my strong area. I understand Economy of Force though. China can concentrate much more combat power on Taiwan and the surrounding area than the US can. Our power is spread across the planet. Theirs is focused in one theater. When they decided to invade, the lack of US political spine will delay our response and allow them to gather sufficient combat power to have a reasonable expectation of success.


Half (repeat, HALF) of the Chicom military is stationed across the strait from Taiwan. FYI.

USMC Steve

Holy crap, that would be a whoooole bunch of harpoons.

IS1 (SW)

Dems desperately want war to wag the dog and take complete control over society.


Just a continuation of the forever war as in 1984. Using conflicts to take your rights away.


With the same 3 basic sets of antagonists.


After 2014 came and went, 2017 came and went, 2020 came and went 2025 makes as much sense.


Xi is dangerous. And Xi is a moron.

So it is possible he could make a move on Taiwan, despite the fact that his advisors would likely tell him China could not successfully annex Taiwan with their current force projection capacity.

China is truly screwed. And Xi is going to magnify the suffering of the Chinese people. The Chinese economy faces complete collapse by 2030.

China has 1/5th of the world’s population to feed but only 7% of arable farmland. And most of their farmland is low yield.

Because of their one child policy, their labor force is aging. 47% of their population is over 50. And despite the lifting of the one child policy, birth rates are not rising enough to create a youthful labor force capable of carrying the weight of a massive elderly population.

Chinese culture also requires adult children return home and care for aging parents, the generations impacted by the one child policy are also going to find it difficult to commit to full employment.


All true.

However Xi will be 70 this year, which does not leave him time to realize his objectives and still be able to revel in the glory.. And he needs to move now before his population gets even older.


Good analysis, if a bit heavy on assumptions.

I wonder if the current progressive crop in congress, arguing for similar policies as China adopted in the past, are able to see this Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come.


Smartphones made terminators obsolete. Skynet won without firing a single shot.

China approaches warfare with a whole-of-society perspective. It is much more holistic than the West’s compartmentalized approach to war. I’m not saying PLA boots won’t touch Taiwanese soil (you still need boots on the ground to truly control it), but it won’t be the first step.

Think about how the US softens enemy defenses through air strikes long before we send expeditionary units, then expand it to include economic and diplomatic action (of the DIME variables, I posit that nothing drives policy more than economics). PRC already has a partial economic siege on ROC, and those are the signs that can best be analyzed for judging any timeline.

Unfortunately, we have an economically illiterate president and populace. The 2024 election (both here and in Taiwan) is a toss-up. If China I has decided to go loud in Formosa, they’d be dumb to wait til after that election. Early Autumn, 2024.

USMC Steve

Well, that certainly gives us all something to look forwart to, doesn’t it? Break out the Browning water cooled .30 caliber machine guns. Worked great for thinning the chicoms out last go around.

USMC Steve

I would like to see how he calculated that “biggest pile of enemy dead” and have to call bullshit on that statement. But it is a very aggressive attitude, particularly for a zoomie.

Dennis - not chevy

I like this guy. Instead of wearing the thirty-something ribbons with all sorts of oak leaves and stars he has been awarded; he wears three. Even his USAF biography does not list them individually.