Retired Lieutenant General predicts Crimea liberation by August 2023
Former Commanding General for U.S. Army Europe, Ben Hodges, predicted that Russia will end up losing Crimea by August 2023. Hodges has followed events in Ukraine, and is seeing what Ukraine generals are thinking, planning, and are carrying out. Ukraine has been striking command and control as well as lines of communication. The Ukraine counter offensive appears to be on a pause, though they are striking targets in Russian held territory. Once the ground freezes strong enough to carry armored vehicles, we may see resumption of movement for their counteroffensive.
From Newsweek:
Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges predicted on Monday that Ukraine’s army will be able to seize control of the occupied Crimea peninsula by August 2023 as the war-torn country continues to counter Russia’s ongoing invasion.
Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said Sunday that Ukrainian forces attacked a purported hotel base for members of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group and killed many of its members.
In light of the report, which Newsweek was not able to independently verify, Hodges wrote on Twitter that Ukraine will “continue to pound” Russian headquarters and lines of communication over the next few weeks through February. This is so that Ukraine can set the conditions for freeing Crimea from Russian control, which Hodges described as the “decisive phase of the campaign.”
“I expect them to liberate Crimea by August,” tweeted Hodges, who is also the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe.
Ukr General Staff will continue to pound Russian hq’s and lines of communication (logistics) for the next few weeks, thru February, in order to set the conditions for the decisive phase of the campaign, the liberation of Crimea. I expect them to liberate Crimea by August. https://t.co/S1ZV5HH3vV
— Ben Hodges (@general_ben) December 12, 2022
Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, though Western countries have continued to assert that the peninsula is part of Ukraine. The same goes for the several regions of Ukraine—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—that Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in late September. Foreign governments such as the United States have called this purported annexation illegal and illegitimate, refusing to recognize those Ukrainian regions as part of Russia.
Newsweek has the article here.
Ben Hodges provides his assessments on some of Russia’s miscalculations in this video:
Not sure what the context is for the top photo.
Maybe mocking the good general’s optimistic assessment of the situation? I don’t think Russia will let Crimea go without a SERIOUS escalation. While the Ukrainian army has done a decent job recovering the territory lost earlier this year, I don’t think they have the capability to take back Crimea. Even if they do manage that feat, holding it is going to be difficult.
Not mocking his assessment. I’ve been following this conflict for months; he is correct with how things are doing.
On one of the maps that I’m tracking, there is evidence that the Ukrainians are targeting Melitopol and other junctions so that they could split the front and cut the Russians off to the west. They did something similar in Kharkiv and Kherson, with targeted strikes, before freeing areas adjacent to Kharkiv and a part of Kherson.
Following the patterns this year so far, the Russians to the west, north of Crimea, may pull back to Crimea. The Russians have been working on defensive networks in this area anticipating that the front will move south.
“60% of people here are f*g drunkards. They lose rifles, helmets, and magazines at the shooting range, f*k.” – Russian sergeant at firing range:
The Russians wasted ammunition on them. If you’ve seen the video of the aftermath, where the rounds hit the vehicle showed that the Russians fired at them as they were catching up, then fired into the vehicle as they passed by, possibly slowing down when they were clearly ahead of the targeted vehicle so that they could get more rounds fired.
There have been numerous allegations of Russian war atrocities. This is a reflection of the lack of discipline to include not conserving rounds for military targets. What the retired general described in the video is an issue that exists all the way to the lower ranks.
Thank you for the clarification.
just going to point out your “intelligence” is all 1 sided. Feel free to put out some opposing Intel. I know it took me all of 5 minutes research to find some. Now ask if I believe either side. Ukraine has been fighting against their “war of rebellion” in Donetsk, Trahansk, and Doblensk since 2011. You think it’s going to end by next summer? Because a US General said so? Shoot, I’ll take center square to block. What is the most corrupt Government on the European Continent, selling US provided Arms to Muslim Terrorists, while demanding more US Gold? If you guess Zelensky’s Ukrainian Gov’t., you win the round, but not the game….because this latest one has been going on for more than 30 years.
Could have been written by Putin himself.. I would need more proof than a statement by the Nigerian president or obscure never heard of news outlets in Africa or the Middle East.. do you understand how the Russian propaganda machine works?
Ukraine is fighting for its existence… Putin has stated that Ukrainians were invented, they are really misguided Russians.. Ukrainian children are kidnapped and placed with Russian families to be raised as Russian… Ukrainian men and women are forcibly relocated to Russia and told they now are Russian
Russia invades Ukraine on a pretext… reduces its cities to rubble, loots, rapes, tortures, murders, targets concentrations of refugees with artillery and missile strikes…
… and the so called conservatives in the west give Ukraine a daily beat down (Tucker) with barely a word about Russia…
Make no mistake, Putin’s objective is genocide.. to make Ukraine and Ukrainians disappear
Its all very disheartening.
Whatever, Vindman. I loathe Putin, but I’m not about to give the store away to a bunch of Ukrainian kleptocrats on the say-so of a bunch of corrupt American politicians. The aid being provided needs to be accounted for. I also think Ukraine’s European neighbors need to step up if this shit is so important to them. Put their money where their mouth is.
Vindman ? Really ? Biting my tongue here…
…so here we are.. “I hate Putin BUT (fill in your favorite anti Ukrainian diatribe)…
The west is putting up the money and Ukraine is putting up the blood.. doing us a big favor fighting what eventually would be our fight ..exposing Russia as a paper tiger..
tell you what ..revoke the Budapest accord and return Ukraines nukes and cruise missiles.. then we are not obligated to guarantee their borders.. they can do it without our help
It ain’t up to me to revoke the Budapest accord. However, notice that the accord in question was signed under Clinton. As far as them putting up the blood, it’s their fucking country. They SHOULD be putting up the blood. I don’t have an issue with providing aid, but it needs to be accounted for and it shouldn’t be an open check book. If you can’t get that through your skull, I have neither the the time, the patience, nor the crayons to explain it to you.
can’t hold the insults?… Go fuck yourself
Right back at you hero.
Ukraine is the worlds laundromat for corrupt money. We are not obligated to do anything for them. This war is about keeping the cash flowing to the deep state and the NWO.
What a retired Russian general said substantiates a lot of what you said. If pulled up on Google, Google translate could be used to convert it to English. He indirectly calls BS on claims against the Ukrainians and directly calls BS on claims of a NATO threat.
http://www.ooc.su/news/obrashhenie_obshherossijskogo_oficerskogo_sobranija_k_prezidentu_i_grazhdanam_rossijskoj_federacii/2022-01-31-79-0-1
I’ve notice the presence of Russian trolls on conservative sites, recently got into an argument with a group of them on the Daily Reckoning discussion section. Tragically, they’ve managed to gain trust on these sites and influence opinions of unsuspecting commenters.
Russias propaganda campaign against Ukraine is massive.. as well employing an army of trolls, Russia pays western “influencers” to spread its propaganda.. and yes it’s effective
Ah, the good ol’ russia bot theory.
When you find them, I mean really find them, not just in your teeth fillings and under your corn flakes, you let all of us know?
I’ll help you beat up the pesky wittle rascals!
Those scamps could use a good lashing from Team USA, i’lltellyouwat.
You do not know the difference between bot and troll… take that as evidence that there is a lot you do not know
stay angry.
I would simply point out from 2011-2017 that super conservative organization the “UN” put out monthly estimates that 11k-17k Ukrainians were being killed by the Ukrainian Government. The US Congress joined in as late as 2016 prohibiting lethal aid. Then something happened to “change their minds.” idk, I certainly don’t trust either side. But neither side deserves US gold, blood, or support. Civil strife is a bad bet, you’d think the US would remember it, except the same group of folks have been making money off it for 246 years.
Your propaganda against the saintly-state of Ukraine has been reported to the Security Service of Ukraine(SBU).
Read the two preceding paragraphs too.
Just civilian victims and criminal states.
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 1A
USAF E-5: just going to point out your “intelligence” is all 1 sided.
False. I track a couple of maps, of Ukraine, that shows troop positioning for both sides, one of the maps that I look at uses US Army map symbology. I’m seeing what both sides are doing. The updates on the map are substantiated by reports, both on regular news reporting and videos and eye witness reports posted on social media. Not “one sided”, but what we in the doctoral research world call “data triangulation”.
I’m very interested in seeing that map using operational graphics.
I’m not weighing in on what sources are or are not to be trusted – I’ve just always found maps using proper symbology to be much more fleshed out and useful than the modern crap all the 12Ys make on ArcGIS.
Deep State Map:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6.75/46.841/33.763
Military Land. This one normally has the Army map symbols for the units on it, but it did not show up in the latest update. They still show position, movement, and clashes.
https://militaryland.net/tag/maps/
Videos, photos, articles, etc., focusing on the war in Ukraine:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/
Thanks
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 2A
USAF E-5: Feel free to put out some opposing Intel. I know it took me all of 5 minutes research to find some.
And, there’s an excellent chance that the information that you pull up is inconsistent with what is actually going on in Ukraine. I’ve had more than enough exposure to the other side courtesy of the Russian trolls that I’ve hammered this year… The latest group I rebutted with 80+ pages worth of point by point counter rebuttals in one batch of rebuttals.
USAF E-5: Now ask if I believe either side.
I could care less which side you believe, your response to me indicates that you have little to no knowledge of the topic that you are trying to argue.
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 3A
USAF E-5: Ukraine has been fighting against their “war of rebellion” in Donetsk, Trahansk, and Doblensk since 2011.
In the mid 2000s, the Russian soldiers put on the uniform of the resistance, putting the Ukrainians in position to where they were fighting not just those wanting to revolt, but also units of the Russian army. Incidentally, the last group of Russian trolls that I hammered accused NATO of doing the same starting this summer to explain away the fact that they lost large territory to the Ukrainians.
USAF E-5: You think it’s going to end by next summer? Because a US General said so?
What part of “Liberate Crimea” by August 2023 did you not understand? Where, in that statement, does it say that the war would be over by next summer? Reading comprehension, it’s a drug.
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 4A
USAF E-5: Shoot, I’ll take center square to block.
The Russians are rushing their forces in wave attacks, in many instances the leadership not caring to use their soldiers for something other than “cannon fodder”, a fact reported by both the Ukrainians, and Russians talking to their families. If they were truly operating under one theater commander, this may be feasible, but movement on the ground indicates that they appear to be doing different things other than zeroing in on one main objective.
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 5A
USAF E-5: What is the most corrupt Government on the European Continent, selling US provided Arms to Muslim Terrorists, while demanding more US Gold? If you guess Zelensky’s Ukrainian Gov’t., you win the round, but not the game….because this latest one has been going on for more than 30 years.
This is a false statement. The Ukrainians can’t afford to sell weapons as they are lacking in the number of weapons and rounds needed to do a lot of what they need to do. So they have to pause their advances and reset. A lot of the equipment sent over there suffers war related casualties to include shelling by the enemy. They’re also burning through rounds. It makes no sense for them to turn around and sell US provided arms.
As for “more corrupt”, look to the Russians. Corruption is one of the reasons to why the Russians entered Ukraine not trained for the task, using substandard equipment, and under poor leadership.
Response to USAF E-5, December 13, 2022, Part 6A
The Ukrainians, in their bid to join the European Union, have to shed a lot of the corruption that you’d find in the Russian government… What a retired Russian general labeled as the “Russian Model”. Even the Russians acknowledge how steep corruption is in Russia.
This may be going on for 3 decades, but when Russia invades Ukraine intending to liquidate the country, split NATO, and to restore the Russian Empire days, “all bets are off”. Russia was never our friend. By their own words, they argued that the invasion of Ukraine was a part of a plan that would have knocked the United States out of the driver seat and to establish a multipolar world where the United States “shares” Europe with a Russia that is also calling shots around the world.
If you hold the photo up to a mirror it all makes sense.
After massive losses, Russia turns into whiny bishes:
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-complains-ukraine-military-aggressive-behavior-sergey-vershinin-turkey-1766296
They’re really nice folk. 😀 They posted a video providing Russians with instructions on how to surrender to drones, which included instructions to follow the drone, the video is embedded:
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-army-video-tells-russians-how-to-surrender-to-drone-2022-12?utm_source=reddit.com
Media claims Russia is trying to change nuke policy it changed 2.5 years ago:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/europe/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-intl/index.html
vs
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/06/02/new-russian-policy-allows-use-of-atomic-weapons-against-non-nuclear-strike/
My money is on tactical nukes being used if Crimea is truly threatened by the time that the article suggests this summer. The Russians will not give up their Strategic Naval base there without escalating it to that point.
No one wins in that scenario. Past time to use diplomacy here before it gets to a point that everyone regrets.
I’m sorry if this makes me in the minority here, but I don’t want any American blood shed over Ukraine, one of the most corrupt governments in Eastern Europe.
We also have enough problems with inflation as it is without pumping billions more into a conflict, where God knows where most of it will end up.
I agree that those strategic naval bases are a point of zero compromise for the Russians.
I doubt that tactical nukes will be their first or even second response to potentially losing Crimea. Eventually, should all else fail, yes. Immediately, no.
The last thing Russia wants is for NATO to get even more directly involved. They’ll exhaust every cyber, social, and economic approach they can think of (as time allows) before resorting to nukes.
It could be the smallest tactical nuke conceivable, with zero collateral effect, and it would still be a nuke. The word itself is enough of a trigger that every western leader would be forced to strongly respond or be accused of tacitly allowing Russia to use them.
Amid biggest shit show of 21st Century Putin cancels year end mega news conference:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-cancels-year-end-press-conference-ukraine-war-news/
Too humble to take a victory lap I am sure.
I’m not sure what to think about Crimea. There’s no question that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an enormous act of aggression, but Crimea was Russian for centuries before Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev (a Ukrainian) transferred it to Ukraine.
A Russian lawmaker used a similar line of reasoning to suggest that Alaska be handed over as “reparations” for the damage that sanctions would have on Russia.
Give them So Cal and I am in.
You don’t get reparations for sanctions. Sanctions are a punishment for some bad acts or bad behavior.
Good Luck with your prediction, Gnrl. Sadly the Europeans have the same mind set of many Middle Easterners. They’ve been fighting amongst themselves for centuries. Many European Immigrants that came here in the past 200 years were trying to avoid being swept up in the power grabbing stupidity.
I state again that my only sympathies are with the innocents caught up in this BS. I will state again that I find it odd that 2 despots that have been proven to be in collusion with high level US grubermint officials (Bitcherly with the Ruskies and biteme with the Ukes) are going tooth and nail against one another. Only winners in this game is the Global MIC Arms manufacturers. And now their #1 Salesman has been released in an ill thought out swap.
I will also repeat that any of those Lovely Former Soviet Lasses that need refuge can find warmth and comfort here at Firebase Magnolia.
That is because your premises are wrong. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was Biden’s man on the ground. After he resigned under a cloud of corruption Biden distanced himself from the situation in preparation for his run for office.
Point being is the corruption of all 3 of the players in this sh^tshow are intertwined going back to oblowme’s “I’ll have more flexability after the election”, Hitlery’s selling out the uranium stocks, Slick Willy getting paid mega $ to give a 15 minute speech, Rino Mitt’s boy and the Artist formerly known as the smartest man joe knows on the BoD for a gas company, a position the neither is qualified for. Maybe I’m Old School, but having been a Board of Director for several organizations, we only had members that knew something about the subject matter. IDGAF about millionaires that became politicians, I DO GAF about politicians that became millionaires. How many BILLIONS of $ have we sent there? And how much found its way back to the Big Guy and his cohorts?
We have people in jail for federal weed crimes yet we trade a known war criminal for a person in a Russian jail for weed crimes. DaHell?!?
Offer still stands for Uke Hotties seeking refuge.
I got you, Zelinsky is a millionaire who became a politician.
No, Zelinsky is an actor who found a way to make the REALLY BIG bucks. Just curious to see how he’s living on the other side of this conflict.
I’m more curious how he is living right now. He could have cut and run with his millions he earned on his own but he stuck it out. Most criminals are cowards through and through and would have run off at the first bomb drop or earlier. Yet he is clearly on the streets in real time taking risks. For sure some of it is show but you can argue the point that he stayed when it was the much harder and more dangerous choice. This doesn’t read as criminal to me but you certainly are entitled to your opinion.
Maybe, I just don’t trust politicians in general and seeing someone lionized to this extent by the press sets off alarm bells for me. He also was beating the drum a little too hard a few weeks back when that errant missile killed two Polish civilians. He has his own motivations and his own agenda. I get it, he wants help, but we can’t just hand him a blank check, either. Also, I’m hearing that he got his latest wish and we’re supposedly sending him Patriot missiles.
“Good Luck with your prediction, Gnrl.”
I’ll bet he also predicted our victory in A’stan; probably several times.
Here you go, from RT 17JAN10 :
Let me sum: Victory cuz we’re the good guys!
We idiots just didn’t COIN Op hard enough.
Yeah, fuck that guy.
I don’t get it. After 20 straight years of “real progress” it’s almost like we didn’t get anywhere at all.
https://www.duffelblog.com/p/were-making-real-progress-say-last-17-commanders-in-afghanistan
Just remember what the left will tell you: You can’t successfully fight an oppressive government with nuclear weapons and fighter planes so you don’t need your assault weapons. Also .223 taints meat and therefore you can’t hunt with it.
It’s almost like they had OERs to pad, along with their subordinates, and their subordinates, and…
But if PFC Bob wastes 35¢ wounding a clearing barrel, as opposed to billions (see article on Pentagone’s malfeasance), the Chain of Command gets to steal little Bobs’ “lil Johnny”‘s college fund.
Rhetorical question, how’s the adulterer and secret info leaker Diamond David Petraeus doing? Pension still fat? I wonder if its he or Mark Kelly is the dom…
Hodges got high on his own supply and hasn’t kicked the habit yet. Few of his ‘pedigree’ do.
And my, how the money rolled in.
Ack!
Blasphemy!
How dare you besmirch the reputation of St. Petraeus, who (re)discovered the gospel of COIN!?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QuGNa3osg4
And the meme that pops up from time-to-time:
The next retired flag officer to offer correct foreign military strategy punditry will be the first. I don’t care about their past assignments or current think tank positions.
These motherfuckers need a betting show on any of the news stations where they lay odds on timelines and outcomes.
FREE MONEY TIP ‘O THE DAY – always bet against the GEN (RET).
This shit is so infuriating it makes me want to go FULLY SEMI AUTOMATIC!!!
After reading your post, I went in the Tube of the You to make sure the general that is the subject of this post wasn’t THAT guy. It was a different LTG (Ret), but this guy is probably just as fucking dumb.
No, I know FS-A is not this guy; Her-tard was my DIV CDR in IZ 07-08 (I was in 101AA, he was 1ID CG.
My point is all of these fucks are always wrong.