Ukraine says their intel points to a Russian attack by late January

To the surprise of nobody, Putin has been wasting no time taking advantage of Sleepy Joe’s noodley weak foreign policy. If you’ve been watching the area, there’s been some buildup on the Russian side for a few months now. If the Ukraine intelligence agencies are to be believed, war might break out soon. If it does, what will our response be? The last time Russia did it, when Biden was VP, we did nothing but send some strongly worded letters in a Neville Chamberlain-level of appeasement.

Could Russia move on Ukraine give the Chinese the distraction they need to invade Taiwan? Could it give Tehran enough cover to unleash a hellstorm on Israel? Would North Korea open up on South or Japan? This could very well be a tipping point from which a very large global war breaks out. Of course, it could also be nothing. Whatever it is, I’m sure Hunter’s got something in the works that will ensure he and the Big Guy are taken care of financially.

Jeff LPH 3 sends in this Military Times article;

Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack.

But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.

“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.

Any such attack, however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight, said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter.

“They want to foment unrest, through protests and meetings, that show the people are against the government,” he said.

Those efforts include ongoing anti-COVID-19 vaccination protests that Budanov said have been organized by Russia, which is also trying to stoke unrest related to the economy and energy supplies.

In addition, Budanov said Russia is trying to whip up anti-government sentiment over an incident dubbed “Wagnergate” — a controversy involving about 30 members of the Russian private military group responsible for attacks inside Ukraine. The Wagner group members, who made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be brought back to Ukraine to be detained, but instead wound up being sent to Russia with the help of the Belarus KGB, Budanov said.

Russian psychological operations are being used to show “our authorities betrayed the people,” said Budanov.

The ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus, which is trying to send refugees into Europe through Poland’s border, is part of that effort, he said.

“They want to make the situation inside the country more and more dangerous and hard and make a situation where we have to change the government,” said Budanov. “If they can’t do that, than military troops will do their job.”

Budanov said U.S. and Ukraine intelligence assessments about the timing of a Russian attack are very similar.

“Our evaluations are almost the same as our American colleagues,” he said.

The Russian embassy did not respond to a request for comment Saturday. The Pentagon on Saturday declined to comment on Budanov’s assessments about the timing and nature of any potential Russian attack, instead pointing to comments made Wednesday and Thursday by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

The U.S. continues to see “troubling behavior from Russia,” Austin told reporters Wednesday.

“We are not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to,” he said. “But these movements certainly have our attention. And I would urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up to take steps to live up to the Minsk agreements.

“Our support for Ukraine sovereignty territorial integrity remains unwavering.”

Yeah, we’ll see. If I owned property on the eastern side of Ukraine, I might be looking to divest or learn Russian.

Category: Biden, Foreign Policy, Russia