Guest post; Why North Korea is being friendly – A fictional meeting between Xi and Kim (or not?)
George V sends this thoughtful piece;
So, the NORKS are talking nice to us. Wow – let’s all celebrate. Or maybe not.
Maybe here’s what happened: China’s Xi invited Kim to lunch, and over some kimchee and rice Xi said “Kim, stop being an idiot. Pissing off the US will not get you anything, especially with a Republican president. Make them mad enough they will come at you. But if you play nice with them in a few months you can push them around like they have casters on their shoes. In 12 months you will be able to stick your hand in the back of their necks and make them say whatever you want.”
“Learn from the Chinese example. 25 years ago we were a 3rd world joke. We made nice with the west, said things like “market economy” and “reforms” and “freedoms”. The western political and business leaders fought each other to get into China like a Black Friday crowd at Wal-mart.
What?
Oh, uh.. just..look it up on the internet. What? W-A-L-M-A-R-T, got that? Anyway, these fools agreed to all our terms, they let us own over half of what they built here, they f&*^ing GAVE us all their technology, they even taught our engineers in their universities and even put them on leading edge research projects. They let us pretty much take over half their manufacturing and now they can’t build a cheap toilet without us. And now, we can build anything they still make, like cars and airplanes because we learned how they have done it.”
“And at the same time they pretty much dismantled their long range military assets while they got their private parts caught in the Middle East. Reminds me, I need to thank those Taliban guys in Afghanistan, maybe buy some drugs from them I can resell to those MS-13 weirdos in the States at a profit. The Taliban will buy some AKs or ammo from us so it all works. Wait, where was I?”
“Oh yeah, so, now we’re popping out new weapons – ships, tanks, fighters and all sorts of new missiles and s&*t – we’re puttin’ em out like hens poppin’ out eggs at one of their factory farms. Those fools in Washington can’t touch us now. If they tried we would squash them like I had to do to that freakin’ spider in your crummy bathroom when I stopped by your place.”
“And, now that we are not a 3rd world s^&*thole, and are d#$n near the biggest economy, to the point where everyone is signing up for our “Belt and Road” thing (and is that a great scam), we can go back to being what we’re supposed to be – a dictatorship. The citizens who now work in our new economy won’t rock the boat, aside from the occasional… what do they call them…“dissident?”. The people want their paycheck. The peasants actually haven’t seen a major difference in the past 25 years so they won’t care. This whole change in China has been a scam on the West and nobody on their side had a freakin’ clue. I swear, as long as you talk nice you can take off these guy’s pants, take their underwear, redress them, and when they get ready for bed they’ll wonder where their boxers went. No, Kim, no – do not not actually try this, please.”
“So, again Kim, make nice with these guys. Feed them a line of BS how you’ll open your markets, treat your people better, and such. Smile and wave. They will give you whatever you want, at whatever terms you want, as long as they think they can make money. And you will have to let them make some – but it’s OK, you will come out ahead on any deal. And you will have to let your people have some stuff – but you will find your people will forget all the crap you and your family have done to them over the years. Once you’ve got your economy rolling, the families of folks you’ve been shooting with AA guns will bury you in cheers right up to your phenomenal whitewall haircut.”
“And, after you’ve taken over another goodly chunk of their economy, fire up the nuke project, build some new tech weapons and quietly do away with anyone who makes noise against you. By the time they wake up, you’ll be able to shoot down, sink, or otherwise obliterate anything they sent your way.
One last thing – if you don’t make nice to them, I’ll pound your head with a 50 ton hydraulic press.“
Category: North Korea
Begging the Claim: The conclusion that the writer should prove is validated within the claim. Example:
Filthy and polluting coal should be banned.
Arguing that coal pollutes the earth and thus should be banned would be logical. But the very conclusion that should be proved, that coal causes enough pollution to warrant banning its use, is already assumed in the claim by referring to it as “filthy and polluting.”
Also an example of circular reasoning and genetic origin fallacies.
First, China does not “own” much in the USA. Hysterical claims aside, ownership in companies or bonds does not equate to political power. Second, if US corporations invested in Chinese ventures and China steals them, that is the company’s problem, not the USA’s problem. Third, the US Army spends more per year than the entire PLA.
While I generally agree that China forms a specific type of threat to the USA, the claims of their strategic superiority are false.
OK, here goes:
1) I never wrote in this article the Chinese “own” anything in the US. Never used the word “own” at all in my admittedly silly musing on what might have happened to make Kim Jong-Un make nice-nice.
2) Regarding corporations: When US corporations move into China, there is a joint venture 50% owned by the Chinese. Part of these ventures is technology transfer. An example: Westinghouse had to form a joint venture to do business with nuclear reactors in China. https://tinyurl.com/yc42sunw
Regarding their military: The Chinese are pushing hard to improve their capabilities, and are close to if not at the point where any conflict in the South China Sea or Sea of Japan will result in serious losses which the US cannot afford because we are not producing new armaments at any significant rate and the Chinese are. Hence, my hyperbole about “squash…spider”.
The Example: CNN article from 6 months ago. https://tinyurl.com/y9x5z37p
Leads off with the J-20, further down has a chart showing areas the Chinese exceed or are at near parity in certain arms classifications.
Many more examples in the news over the past few years. China wants to be much more than a regional power, and they are well on their way – hence “Belt and Road” to bring more nations into their sphere of influence. They acquired US technology through their joint ventures with US firms which required US firms to turn over technology and techniques. That technology will be used against US economic and geo-political interests.
My thesis is that the Chinese do not want the distraction of Kim’s behaviors. They can then continue to quietly expand their capabilities and world influence. The Chinese are playing a long-term game.
They’re playing the long game, and they’re damned good at it.
Politicians here think anything past November is long-term.
I’m not sure I’d agree with the idea that “ownership in companies or bonds does not equate to political power.” There indeed might not always be a direct effect, but it’s not hard to imagine how impacts can happen indirectly. Here are a couple of examples:
A few years ago, the New York Times was having serious financial problems when up steps the Mexican cell-phone magnate Carlos Slim to take a 20 percent stake in the newspaper. Personally, I’d find it difficult to believe that Slim’s ownership has had no effect on how the NYT takes editorial positions on things such as NAFTA, illegal immigration and open borders, and so forth.
Anybody who follows the securities markets at all might agree that as much as Wall Street traders like to portray themselves as steely-eyed financial gunslingers, the reality is that they’re usually more like little girls on a school yard. One sees a spider, screams, and the rest go into a collective freak-out. In such a climate, the Chinese don’t have to outright own majority shares of equity. All they need to own is enough to act as a catalyst to generate financial turmoil. The ripple effect of such then having political implications.
China is rather heavily invested in our various formats of US Tresury bet instruments.
-very- heavily.
If they screw around with our economy hard enough to cause those bond values to drop, they are going to take it hard and fast themselves, no grease.
If we found ourselves in serious conflict with them, and congress went anywhere near “declaration of war” territory, there is pre-existing precedent to repudiate any debt owed to and confiscate any asset owned by the hostile power.
And on balance, that does -way- more damage to them than to us.
And, they know it.
Gah…
“various forms”
“Treasury Debt Instruments”
“Treasury Bet Instruments”… hmmm, my state, as well as others, have these, ‘cept they call them “lottery tickets”!
this is a very good point, battle. and they’re left holding a VERY large, very empty bag if it happens too. congress wouldn’t even need to approach war status to hurt them either. Trump’s biggest strength is the attribute is being able to impact the wallet, for better or worse.
they are also very heavily dependent on us buying up all of their export trash too just to maintain the holding of said bag. their economy, and harbor freight tools, both depend on that almost exclusively.
The integration of two economies can be a consideration, but it is not a guarantee.
The Third Reich and the Soviet Union were -close- trading partners on the eve of their war. If Hitler had not invaded, Stalin certainly would have. The outbreak of war hit both sides hard economically, yet that conflict was all but certain.
If China is -prepared- for economic hardship, then that “Mutual Assured Depression” could be see as an advantage. They mostly live much closer to the bottom than Americans. Most of -us- have -never- known famine, or even hunger beyond a day or three.
On the other hand, we do not -fear- chaos, although we often -avoid it. Our whole system can be seen as high-functioning chaos. The rulers of China have sought -order- for -millennia-.
They can inflict -hardship-. Most of us don’t know it enough to really fear it.
We can inflict -chaos-. They have periodically experienced it, as recently as the 1960s at a cost of 30-60 -million- dead,and that was with an intact and relatively functional government. It is -anathema- to them.
And -Trump- is almost chaos personified. And his main military guys is -called- “chaos”.
I think China may be considering that this era is one for face saving deconfliction. Lots of strong poses, but very, very little -actual- battle. But -only-, as long as they see a successful eventual endgame, and an orderly way to it.
The DPRK could be the source of 10-20 -million- howling starving fanatics moving north into China. That is why they have -massively- reinforced that border. And they may not be all that effective at stopping such a migrant wave, short of persistent nerve gas.
Which is why I rather strongly believe that KJU was given an unmistakeable and unambiguous encouragement to find a face-saving settlement with the ROK and the USA.
That message may have included “We -also- have a button. And ours -also- works.”
Food for thought
I’m cautiously optimistic. Korean’s value “face saving” and this was a big step. If this had happened during Ozero’s reign of incompetence, he would already have an oak leaf cluster on his Nobel.
I think the Chinese told Fatty that there was a new sheriff in town and his crap wouldn’t fly with this one.
But, as Ronaldo Maximus said, trust but verify.
After having spent time in Korea and seeing the planning and dealing with South Koreans, I’m hesitant to believe this is the solution to everything in Korea.
It is a huge step, but doesn’t mean that Kim will stick to it and/or keep paving the way for peace and happiness.
We shall see.
He could certainly be biding his time waiting for the next Obama to be president.
This is probably what’s really going on here.
Kim did his math and realized he could not maintain current course and survive 4 to 8 years of Trump, and decided to play a delaying game.
He may be doing what the Muzzies call a “hudna.” It is a temporary peace deal while the Muzz build up their offensive power so they can later destroy the infidel.
Yeah Yef you could be right, but fatty ‘lil Kim-boy might be realizing that after 8 years of President Trump likely comes 8 years of the Pence Administration which he KNOWS that he and his regime will NOT survive.
There is -zero- chance the DPRK can survive six more years of current sanctions, let alone the next few turns of the screw.
Either they have to get major external financial support, or they have to get the sanctions lifted. Or they starve, collapse, and today’s leaders become noisy entertainment a-la Kadaffi and the nearest bayonet-wielding rebel.
Perhaps China shared with KJU pictures of Lybian bayonet proctology.
“The western political and business leaders fought each other to get into China like a Black Friday crowd at Wal-mart”
DETENTE!
Nixon and Kissinger.
As Spock said, “Only Nixon could go to China”…
Live long and prosper.
My personal, honest opinion.
It’s as easy as this:
Trump.
Trump isn’t owned by the puppet masters, and as such, he has seen an opportunity to do a peace and the kind of right that nobody else could have done.
The forces that controlled Kim, Trump cut the strings. Why and how else could Kim have done such a literal 180 overnight?
Pompeo is the masterstroke.
Are you saying Fatty is doing this despite China, instead of because China?
It have always been clear that China is the force that controlsd Kim…
There is a very good chance that KJU is doing this to avoid the total collapse of the DPRK, and to thus avoid winding up hanging from a lamppost.
His own army is near starvation. At the point when his own security apparatus face the oblivion of their own children, and they are more afraid of that then of him, the wheels come off.
The pressure exerted by us actually enforcing the sanctions against him and pressuring China to quit backdooring exports to him are what brought him here.
We keep the pressure up long enough and refuse to give in to tyranny and before too long all Koreans will live free.
Although, if the Norks hadn’t build nukes and TBMs nobody would give a shit. Cuba, Venezuela, pretty much every African country are all left to their own devices.
And I can hear it now: “The North Korean Communist model would have worked just fine if the USA hadn’t of sabotaged it.” and the Bernie voters will believe it hook, line, and sinker.
Those darn meddlesome yankee-kids……
I have a hard time believing a communist dictator will give up his power willingly.
Whatever play Kim is going for, he expects to end up on top.
I agree he is probably going for the Chinese Play, but I am not so sure it is because the Chicoms convinced Kim to do it.
A possible scenario is that relations between China and Nork have deteriorated in secret, and Kim realizes he cannot longer be a buffer for the Chinese against Souk, so he decided to strike out on his own by copying the Chinese model.
Maybe his conclussion is he can no longer depend on China, hence his move to make nice with Souk and us.
North Korea was a USSR Puppet Regime for the longest and since the USSR was dead and gone so was NK’s bread and butter, so they made nicey-nicey as best they could with the Chicoms. Now that fatty ‘lil Kim has rattled his tin pot and really pissed the Chicoms off he now has to deal with reality.
What makes you think it’s willingly?
There is the example of the peaceful end of the DDR and resultant German reunification.
Given a choice, KJU may prefer not to wind up like Romainia’s Ceaucescu.
Kim, the Little Dick Nork Dork is not smart enough to think of all these machinations.
By thoughts are that Xi told him to STFU and play nice in the sandbox or they would have his bodyguards fillet him like yesterday’s fish and hang them over a lamppost to remind the Nork’s who is really in charge…
He’s not a smart man, that much is certain…
I wouldn’t underestimate him. He well knows he’s about out of cash and options, except the one in front of him right now. He’ll play nice for a while, and then see which way the wind blows. Better that than winding up hanging from a street lamp in Pyongyang, a la Mussolini.
This little (and fat) slanteyed chingadero is ALWAYS up to some nefarious, sneaky, and oriental shit.
I’m hopeful and warily optimistic.
Courage, Comrades and remember what is causative: Trump.
You could have said pretty much the same thing, without the stuff that reads as racist.
I’m an equal opportunity offender, I am ok with it
The typical excuse of the racisss. How lame.
I hope President Trump reads this, including irreverent comments.
North Korea to close nuke test site in May, unify time zone
Fox News Link
Yeah. Closing down a collapsed and badly irradiated slag heap does make logistical sense.
But in practical terms, it already is “closed”. He would need a nuke to blow it open again.
The site is pretty much done, the question is what will happen to the estimated 10-16 nuke weapons he already has.
Without a whole bunch of expensive ongoing maintenance, they become billion dollar doorstops.
Neutron flux from the fissile materials will slag electronics quickly unless special hardened, and even then they still eventually have to be replaced.
The required Tritium has to be refreshed periodically, as it decays rather quickly to Helium3, which is Not a good thing to inject into a detonating thermonuke. Tritium is not cheap to make.
Missile maintenance – more megabucks that might as well be incinerated.
We spent about three billion 1945 dollars to acquire nuclear capability, for three -crude- ones that were used right away. Each modern warhead is probably a billion each, net. The things are money pits.
I think the DPRK has realized that that they can be a nuclear power only at the cost of their continued existence. And, apparently, KJU is sane enough to see it.
I have a hunch that Kadaffi did the math, and came up with “and then the Americans smash us flat anyway, assuming our starving loyal subjects to not cut our throats. Tell the Yankees we want to make a deal.”
Of course, leave it to Hillary Clinton to screw up the “life without nukes” example, thus making the rest of the thugs that much less likely to make deals.
History is going to be -very- harsh with her and zer0.
It’s possible that Fatty Kim da T’ird got a warning from China that if he kept stealing cash from banks like the Bank of Bangla Desh, which does business, no doubt, with China, they’d do more than just hammer him flat.
Remember, he’s had that corps of hackers going big time, hacking accounts of all kinds to get money, and the Norks are the most likely suspects in the theft of Bangla Desh’s cash from the Federal Reserve of NYC.
It’s also possible that China found his gang of thieves trying to hack China’s accounts and financial system, and made it clear that it’s unacceptable.
I agree with this, the CHICOMS told him to chill or the would watch the Americans level their country from their border watch towers
talk is cheap.
Kim needs to put his ‘won’ where his mouth is
His main nuke testing facility just collapsed taking with it a great deal of research. The sanctions have left the country bankrupt including his bourbon supply. Trump has leaned heavily on the Chinese to deal with this asshat and now we are where we are.
Trump should get a Nobel for this. Obama got one for doing nothing so this is the least the Nobel Committee could do but I fear they would throw up in their mouths awarding it so it won’t happen
China was going to be the “big brother” influence to bring the NORKS to the table. That was a given.
My opinion regarding nuclear weapons programs – Iran and Norks have been sharing their knowledge and people for quite some time (with some help from Russia and China). If you look at the recent history, the US focuses on Iran’s nuclear program, and then the Norks make progress. Once the Norks become the focus, then Iran begins to make progress. The recent funding for this comes from the “Iran deal” that gave them billions (thanks Obama).
Neither of them can be trusted. I think someone in a prior comment mentioned the “long game”. The US election cycles and the associated party/policy changes let’s them play this game.