Russian Combat Equipment, Troops in Syria – Along With Iranian Troops, Too
We all know that the current group of feckless fools and tone-deaf tools running things in DC Administration has been somewhat reluctant to become involved in Syria’s civil war – at least, when it came to sending US troops. I have to admit I think that’s the right call. Or at least, it was when inactivity on the Administration’s part made it the de facto US response.
Hey, even a stopped clock is right twice daily. (smile)
But other nations aren’t so reluctant to become involved. Take Russia, for instance.
Russia has apparently sent combat troops to Syria. They’ve recently (as in last week) been reported to have participated in combat operations on the side of the Syrian government.
It’s hardly a minor “just to show the flag” deployment, either. The Russians have made a serious logistical effort to support operations in Syria, and appear to be setting up airfield/basing facilities IVO Latakia – including billeting for up to 1,500 troops. They’ve conducted numerous Antonov 124 flights to deliver troops and/or key other items. They’ve also delivered tanks (including T-90s), APCs, and artillery pieces via ship. Components for the SA-22 SAM system have also reportedly been assembled in Syria.
Russia also isn’t the only foreign nation supporting the Syrian government. Iran has also sent a number of troops to “support” Russian forces in Syria.
The US government – or, at least those currently in DC pretending to perform that function – are reacting predictably to these latest developments. They have publicly expressed “deep concerns” over Russian forces in Syria, and also indicated they are “closely monitoring the situation“.
Well, that’s just dandy.
This last tells me that the introduction of forces was both unforeseen and undesired by the current Administration. Otherwise, why draw attention to the fact you couldn’t prevent it from happening by expressing your “deep concerns”?
And unforeseen? GMAFB. The Russians have been arming Syria for decades; the Iranians have been similarly close recently as well. The fact that either or both could decide to intervene on Syria’s side should have been foreseen, oh, maybe about 24 hours after the current Syrian troubles began. Yet all this Administration can manage to do is call attention to an unwanted and apparently unanticipated foreign action – and wring its hands after-the-fact.
Yeah, that’s effective leadership. Just like we had back in 1977-1980.
Let me be crystal clear here: I’m not calling for US forces to be deployed to Syria. And maybe having Russian and Iranian forces there to do something we’re not willing to do (e.g., fight ISIS on the ground) is the correct course of action. Dunno.
But calling attention to your own major diplomatic failure probably isn’t going to get us much respect in that part of the world – or anywhere else, for that matter. And I do wonder what quid quo pro Assad will give to his Russian and Iranian benefactors afterwards to show his gratitude for saving his butt.
As I’ve said before about the current Syrian civil war: “I got a bad feeling about this.”
Category: "Your Tax Dollars At Work", Foreign Policy, Government Incompetence, Military issues
Hmm-well, every Ivan sent to Syria is one less threatening the Baltic republics.
There may be an upside here, Hondo. If the Russians come to be seen as “the enemy” by radical Islamists then it could create internal problems for the Russians in their own southern tier. The tens of millions of Muslims under Russian control have always chafed at serving their godless masters.
Of course Putin would likely crush any Muslim insurrections like so many cockroaches, but it might keep him busy guarding his backside and perhaps less inclined to go adventuring on his western front.
True prior to the breakup of the USSR, PT. Not so much any more. Courtesy of Wikipedia, here’s the current map of “significant Muslim population areas” in Russia:
There simply aren’t that many regions in Russia today that have a large Muslim population any more. That’s a primary results of the “stans” leaving when the USSR broke up – and a primary reason why Russia let them go.
Could the Russians be the lesser of two weevils regarding IS in Syria?
Hondo, the opening sentence in that same Wikipedia piece you reference:
“Islam is the second most widely professed religion in Russia.”
And from further down:
“Moscow has 2 million Muslim residents and up to 2 million more Muslim migrant workers.” I must confess, that figure surprised me, believing they were more prevalent in the southern provinces.
The article also states that Muslims are already being oppressed in their practice of Islam in Moscow, no doubt out of fear of the development of radical elements. Yet current world events should tell us that overt suppression of Islamic religious practices is a very bad idea with the potential for very bad outcomes.
If we had almost four million Muslims in our nation’s capital, we’d be scared shitless and walking on eggs to avoid offending them including in our foreign policy strategies and tactics.
Of course the Russians and Putin would have no compunction against mass murder and deportation to the Gulag to deal with the problem but that would create wider backlash. So a Muslim Fifth Column is always a possibility that must be factored into Russian geopolitics.
Approx 6.5% of the current Russian population is estimated to be Muslim – or a bit less than 9.5M out of a total population of 146+M. This corresponds fairly closely with the collective total of Turkic ethnic groups (Tatar, Bashkir, Chuvash, and Chechens – total approx 6.9% of the Russian population).
The Islamic total is half as many as those who are estimated to be athiest/non-religious; less than 1/3 as many as are estimated to be “spiritual but not religious”; and about 1/8 as many as are estimated to be Christian.
Further, Russia has a long history of dealing quite harshly with minorities that get “out of line” – either in reality or in perception only. (Perhaps you’ve heard the Russian term “pogrom” before? Though Jews were hardly the only targets of pogroms in Tsarist Russia.) That’s one reason that Russia today has only a tiny Jewish population (estimated at about 1/4 million) – and why there are today very few Tatars in the Crimea.
Given the above, I don’t really think we’re looking at a particularly effective “fifth column” scenario re: Islam in Russia.
FWIW: in the US, Islam is today the third largest religion, after Christianity and Judiasm. However, as was the case in Russia those unaffiliated with any religion (athiest/agnostic/none) form a far larger group.
Nonetheless, over four million Muslims making up almost a quarter of the population of your political, financial and cultural capital has to be factored into geopolitical decisions. I agree with your assessment of Russian brutality but that would constitute a battle centered in that capital which I do not think Vladimir Putin nor many other Russians wishes to start.
By the way, statistical figures on religion in Russia are all over the map so no one really knows what the true numbers are.
CIA World Fact book Russian Muslim Population 10-15%, not 6%. That’s equivalent to our entire 1st generation immigrant population in U.S.. In the US, Protestant 51.3%, Roman Catholic 23.9%, Mormon 1.7%, other Christian 1.6%, Jewish 1.7%, Buddhist 0.7%, Muslim 0.6%. “doveryai no proveryai” Trust, but verify. Old Russian Proverb.
You did notice that the data listed in the CIA World Factbook for the USA and Russia is from 2007 and 2006, right?
The data I used wasn’t from that source, and was from 2012 (Russia) and 2014 (the USA). I’m guessing data from 1 and 3 years ago is likely a more accurate picture of today than data from 8 or 9 years ago.
The data I used for Russia excludes Chechnya and Ingushetia, which are two small overwhelmingly Muslim regions in the northern Caucasus region. Those two regions have a total population of approx 1.8M, which is (presumably) 90+% Muslim. However, even adding 1.8M to the Russian Muslim population only raises the Muslim population percentage by somewhat over 1% – e.g., from approx 6.5% to 7.7%.
Maybe the Ivans will make the Syrians hate them as much as Afghans do, that might not hurt!
Can you imagine the Russian ROE? Probably reads something like this:
Shoot early, shoot often. Don’t miss.
Just imagine the bloodshed if the Ivans’ Commanders suddenly told them their vodka shipment was intercepted by some hadjis!
I see no real positive note to this. In the beginning of this entire Syrian mess, it was our Emperor in no Clothes who promoted and pretty much told the Mid East to revolt… they did, and he has stood by watching, while promising action, that even when it does take place has had no positive effect and cost us a crap load of money.
Assad needed to go, but the waffling of this President created ISIS or whatever the hell he wants to call them today. His stupidity, will cost American lives down the not so distant road.
My guess is those aren’t T-90’s, but rather the new Armata tank. Here’s some interesting reading for you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armata_Universal_Combat_Platform
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-14_Armata
Also, there are rumors in the mill that this is the platform for a 154mm main gun the Russians have been developing since the 80’s; similar to how the Abrams was originally outfitted with a 105mm, then upgraded to a 120.
I’ll flat out say it – the Armata is to the Abrams what a Tiger was to a Sherman. I’d REALLY hate to meet this thing in Stryker.
Looks like they may have consulted our Air Force for their new livery design.
Now, there truly is a Red Line in Syria. Cross it and you’re dead. Vlad isn’t gonna play, I’m guessing. He will have his boys kick some ass. The bad guys who haven’t already made their way into Europe will do so soon–or appear in a neighboring ME country, such as Jordan, to plant some war corn.
Well, if anything the Russian won’t have lawyers dictating the ROE’s for their forces, so ISIS will be getting the “full meal deal” from the Russians…
More and more it looks like I should brush up on my Russian skills. Could be a few bucks to be made with some 3 letter agency.
…And here I go acting all impulsively and ‘trying’ to learn Farsi. Them girls are beautiful though…
We I can’t say I didn’t see this coming….
One of the questions that doesn’t seem to be getting asked and answered from a geopolitical standpoint is that the Russians might be looking at broader strategic implications. If ISIS morphs into ISIL by including Turkey and the rest of the Levant, for example, it could mean a serious threat to the Turkish Straits and turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake with no access to the Mediterranean.
Putin may not even like Assad, but sees getting into bed with the Syrians as being the lesser of two evils.
Another factor, one making things even more complicated, is that a few months ago there were a couple of studies released by a research group at West Point that looked at ISIS’s ability to not only seize ground but also to hold it. The gist was that ISIS is an effective offensive weapon in the near term, but is unlikely to provide stability and effective government in the longer one.
Can’t wait for the YouTube vids of Russians smoking Islamists.
“State Department spokesman John Kirby said Kerry called [Russian Foreign Minister] Sergey Lavrov for the third time in the last 10 days. Kerry “made clear that Russia’s continued support for President Assad risks exacerbating and extending the conflict, and undermining our shared goal of fighting extremism if we do not also remain focused on finding a solution to the conflict in Syria via a genuine political transition,” the State Department said in a written statement.” (Source: Fox News)
“Foreign Minister? John Kerry here.”
“Again? WTF do you want now?”
“Same issue, Mr. Foreign Minister. May I call you Sergey this time?”
“Nyet.”
“Well, Mr. Foreign Minister, you know that we wanted Assad out but even with the pressure of “60 Minutes” we couldn’t budge him. The fact that he is still there looks very bad for us. I know that this is asking a lot but…CLICK.”
“Hello? Hello? Mr. Foreign Minister? Sergey?”