How Much Damage is Obama Causing?

There is a lot of buzz going around about this recent Gallup poll showing what could be very good news for Republicans.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup’s “likely voter” model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

This is good news for Republicans IF it holds but it is probably better news for McCain-Palin than for the Republicans seeking congressional seats.

Even if current polling trends continue and McCain wins, it will still probably be fairly close. Even in landslides, the coattail effect isn’t as significant as one would think.

The first example is a true “insurgent candidate”, George McGovern. This was a catastrophe for the Democrats with Nixon carrying 49 states.

In 1972 the Democrats actually gained two seats in the Senate. Thirty four seats were contested. Republicans picked up Democrat seats in New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Virginia but dropped seats to Democrats in Colorado, Delaware, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine and South Dakota.

It can be argued that McGovern was not exactly a core Democrat and therefore didn’t really hurt the Democrat brand.

The 1984 presidential election featured a far more mainstream Democrat in former Vice President Walter Mondale. This of course resulted in another 49 state landslide victory for Republicans.

In 1984 the Democrats picked up three Senate seats; Tom Harkin, Paul Simon and Al Gore took previously held Republican seats. The Republicans did get one seat when Mitch McConnell defeated Walter Huddleston in one of Kentucky’s closest ever senate elections. Ultimately, it was a net +2 for Democrats.

The House of Representatives, which is usually far more erratic in swings, held fairly stable during both elections.

In 1972 the Republicans gained 12 seats closing the Democrat control majority to 242-192.

Reagan’s 1984 landslide picked up 16 seats but still left the Democrats in solid control with a 253-182 majority.

Big swings in the House of Representatives usually occur during the mid-term election after a sitting President has done something particularly stupid. After Nixon’s Watergate fiasco, the Democrats picked up 49 seats in 1974.

The Clinton administration stumbled out of the blocks with “Don’t ask, don’t tell” and Hillary-Care and paid by losing 54 seats and the majority in 1994.

The exception of course was 1980 when 34 Republicans rode Reagan into the Whitehouse.

Pelosi and her “most ethical congress in history” currently hold a 31 seat majority, so historically it is possible.

The key will be the debates. If Obama doesn’t improve significantly from his Saddleback performance, he could be viewed as weak as Jimmy Carter was in 1980. For the first time in history, this whole thing could rest on the one Vice Presidential debate.

Do you think Obama thought about that when he picked Joe Biden?

Category: Politics