AP’s reporting on the unemployment rate (UPDATED)
I’ve been seeing the AP story on the unemployment rate for February released this morning under the headline “Employer Slash Jobs By Most In 5 Years“. It was pretty scary headline, so I finally read the article after avoiding it all morning;
Employers slashed 63,000 jobs in February, the most in five years and the starkest sign yet that the country is heading dangerously toward recession or is in one already.
The Labor Department’s report, released Friday, also indicated that the nation’s unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent as hundreds of thousands of people perhaps discouraged by their prospects left the civilian labor force. The jobless rate was 4.9 percent in January.
Job losses were widespread, with hefty cuts coming from construction, manufacturing, retailing, financial services and a variety of professional and business services. Those losses swamped gains elsewhere, including education and health care, leisure and hospitality and the government.
So I decided to slip over to the report at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and this is what it said;
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment fell in manufacturing, construction, and retail trade. Job growth continued in health care and in food services. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.
The number of unemployed persons (7.4 million) and the unemployment rate(4.8 percent) were essentially unchanged in February. Over the month, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.3 percent), adult women (4.2 percent), teenagers (16.6 percent), whites (4.3 percent), and Hispanics (6.2 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for blacks fell to 8.3 percent,in line with the average rate for 2007. The unemployment rate for Asians was3.0 percent, not seasonally adjusted.
So employers certainly didn’t SLASH jobs really, and the writer’s bias, which by the way shows up nearly every week when reporting unemployment in the same lame phrase that “hundreds of thousands of people perhaps discouraged by their prospects left the civilian labor force”. Since when does “perhaps” become an acceptable part of an analytical phrase? “Perhaps” they all won the lottery. “Perhaps” they all started their own businesses. “Perhaps” it was a combination of thousands of possible answers.
Only at the Associated Press does the unemployment rate falling a tenth of one percent portend doom and gloom. Seein’s how the unemployment rate has floating around 4.5% for over a year now (a half of one percent below what economists consider full employment) it stands to reason that jobs would start falling away.
But let’s look what was the report a year ago?
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+97,000), and the unemployment rate (4.5 percent) was essentially unchanged in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment grew in some service-providing industries but declined sharply in construction. Manufacturing employment continued to trend downward.
So unemployment rose .3% in the last year. And in February 2006?
Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 243,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in contruction, financial activities, health care, and several other industries.
Both the number of unemployed persons, 7.2 million, and the unemployment rate, 4.8 percent, were little changed in February.
Hmm, the same as this February. How about February 2005;
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 262,000 in February and the unemloyment rate edged up to 5.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth occurred in both goods-producing and service-providing industries.
Over half-a-percent higher unemployment. Imagine that – I’ll bet the AP predicted economic failure for the entire period from February 2005 until February 2006, too.
UPDATE: Thanks to Lamplighter for pointing out that AP changed their title to “Dangerous cracks appearing in job market” from the fear-mongering title that was up nearly all day while the market was open.
