Wash Post says US intel agencies think Russia will invade Ukraine w/ 175k troops

| December 6, 2021

We talked a bit ago about Ukraine sounding the alarm on Russia amassing troops at their border. Last week we talked about Putin saying he had a “red line” about Ukraine, which I put some more faith in than Obama’s red lines. Now, according to the Washington Post who cites anonymous sources, US intelligence agencies think that Russia could invade Ukraine in a multi-front offensive with up to 175,000 troops as soon as January.

Poetrooper sends in the WashPo report;

 

As tensions mount between Washington and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops, according to U.S. officials and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

The Kremlin has been moving troops toward the border with Ukraine while demanding Washington guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and that the alliance will refrain from certain military activities in and around Ukrainian territory. The crisis has provoked fears of a renewed war on European soil and comes ahead of a planned virtual meeting next week between President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

The unclassified U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Post, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations. Currently, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, according to the document.

More at the source. I, for one, am confident in the decisive, coherent, and well reasoned abilities of President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Austin to appease Putin. We’ve spent the last year ensuring our military is purged of those far-right “extremists”, double and triple checking that only the fully vaccinated are allowed to remain, and admitting all the transgenders we can find. We’ve never been more ready for a war with Russia, right?

Category: "Truth or fiction?", Biden, Foreign Policy, Russia

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Sapper3307

Lil green men part 3.

Sapper3307

And current trench life.
https://youtu.be/8Flf1grUWCU

Frankie Cee

How many US Citizens will we leave behind in the Ukraine? Biden is great at that.

Andy11M

And if they cross the border, Joe won’t do a thing. if they do it in early 2022 that will be after the midterm elections? So some Congresscritters will be safe, but some will be in the hot seat. Wonder who in Congress will have access to the Intel before the midterm and will craft their campaign accordingly. Hell, if it goes as badly as Iran did for Carter, this will definitely end Joe’s reelection bid.

rgr769

Uh, the midterm elections will be next November. So “early 2022” will be long before the midterm elections. But if the Russkies invade any time months before that first Tuesday in November, the Progs can kiss their control of Congress goodbye.

11B-Mailclerk

The would-be “Tzar Vladimir I” would probably prefer to act with our current hamstrung FlusterCluck executive and legislature, versus a post-midterm Republican Congress that just might declare war or issue sanctions over a veto.

Neither Putin nor Xi will see this opportunity again. But they have to be worried someone would bribe the corruptocrat-OTUS to act.

And he does have that multi-decade reputation of nasty, petty, vindictiveness.

On the other hand, neither Putin nor Xi want to hand 2024 to Trump on a gold platter.

Personally, I expect a pro-Putin coup in Ukraine to invite in Russia, even if said Coup-ers have to be air-dropped on Kyiv at oh-dark-thirty.

And Xi might try similar in Taiwan.

E4 Mafia '83-'87

The problem with a Russian invasion of Ukraine is the large number of people that currently live there consider themselves Russian. The closer you get to Kiev, the more full-ethnic Ukrainians you’ll encounter. My wife’s family immigrated from Ukraine when Tsars were in power, and through church groups the people I speak to say 40% wouldn’t oppose being part of Russia. Ukraine is poor and very corrupt. It’s considered a 3rd world nation. Aside from sable rattling, “economic sanctions”, and bloviating rhetoric there is much we’re going to do. Vlad can gut gas & oil pipelines to keep Europe in line. Face it, there last Democrat did nothing in 2014 when the invaded errr annexed Crimea. What’s hair sniffing ice cream creep going to do?

Anonymous

Folk in Crimea and those eastern provinces are Russian and formally want to be. How it is. Thank Stalin for drawing the border the way he did there.

A Proud Infidel®™

I’m certain that Putin has lots and plenty of dirt on Senile Joe and the Hoe as well as their being 100& incompetent at dealing with crises, thus he has NO fear of them whatsoever.

AZRobert

The way things are going, if Putin makes a move, I see the 999th Upside Down Trans Brigade(newly formed) first on the scene….dropped from many helicopter’s and it’s his mess to clean up now.

Roh-Dog

Glitter bombs, rainbow flags, and megaphones blasting Lady Gaga will send Ivan running.

War crimes and astroglide all over… The horror. the. horror.

11B-Mailclerk

“FIX FABULOUS BAYONETS!!!”

Deckie

What does he want in the Ukraine anyway? Just a land grab for what he sees as rightfully Russia’s?

26Limabeans

There are some pretty hot women there.

Ex-PH2

Odessa is a seaport as is Mikolayov.

There is also plenty of coastline to build even more access to the Black Sea.

This gives him better access to the Straits of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean. No more frozen Russians from the northern ports.

He may also be nostalgic for the good old days of being back in the USSR, back in the USSR, back in the USSR!!!!

Roh-Dog

Added bonus (assuming the leaked/presumed data is true) the Crimea occupation covers all of Europe with the Avangard hypersonic missile system, giving a fight time of 8.5 minutes to Rota Spain at Mach 20.

I’d say securing the area is a strategic imperative.

ChipNASA

I’ll just leave this here… seems apropos now…

Ex-PH2

Hey, I just quoted that! Thanks for the reminder!

CDR D

IIRC, Crimea was Russian up until the 1950s when Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev (a Ukrainian) gave it to Ukraine.

Anonymous

Or Stalin– one of the. Whole idea was to make USSR harder to split-up. Who knew?

Tito though it was good idea and made Kosovo contain Pristina province (98% Serb) too. That’s sucked too.

Roh-Dog

FWIW, Belarus is also making some moves to the north of Ukraine. It doesn’t help that ‘some people did some things’ to destabilize support for Alexander Lukashenko, who has been absolutely anti-police state re CONvAIDS-1984 (at least in public).

I’m of the mindset their are no good guys in this AO, but I’m really concerned that the US MIC and their NATO lackeys are fomenting a disastrous poop milkshake and we all gonna have to take a drink.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-announces-military-drills-with-russia-near-ukraine-border-2021-11-29/

Roh-Dog

I’m under the impression that RUS troops ain’t leaving E.UKR/SW.RUS anytime soon. The Defense Minister of Russia, one Sergey Shoygu, is an ethic Ukrainian Engineer who has worked as an Emergency Services Minister for most of his life in the gov. [Officers gonna bulletpoint?] I think he is aspiring to higher office too and garners much support in mother rooshan.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2013/Finch-Shoygu.pdf

[Note: this below quote is NOT verified nor have I vetted the source, suck it.]

‘[Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu] added that Moscow and Beijing “together oppose the hegemony of the United States, oppose the fake democratic regime of the United States and fake multiculturalism, as well as manifestations of the Cold War in a new form.”‘ (see link)

Considering the machine pressing on the buttons of the world about the ‘repatriation’ of Crimea/Donetsk and the actions in the Strait of Taiwan, this is framing the actions in Ukraine as defensive, rightly or wrongly, battlefield shaping of information DOES work…

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/moscow-claims-us-conducted-nuclear-drills-near-russian-border-3584784

Roh-Dog

And that idiot Austin is busy licking fingers on Capitol Hill and tilting at hooded windmills, instead of deescalation? SHOCKED! Shocked I say!

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Tag/47529/russia/

[Obviously this is open source, maybe he’s using back channels or being coy,… or maybe I missed a release. I am human…allegedly]

11B-Mailclerk

There will be a coup in Ukraine, installing a pro-Putin figurehead. The puppet will invite in Russia to ‘reasons’.

That coup may occur slightly before or after Russian tanks cross the border.

Last I saw, the Russian vehicle parks near the Ukraine border were dense-packed, which the artillery-savvy Russians would not do if they were expecting a fight. If those vehicle parks disperse, here it comes.

Now the wildcard in all this is Poland. They have an operational readiness similar to ours. They train, and their stuff works. They field modern hardware, a surprisingly large amount of forces. They could strike those Russian parks, or strike an invasion. (F-16Cs, for example, fairly current ones)

And folks forget that Russia was brutal to Poland in 1939-1945, and rather unpleasant 1945-1991.

Poland certainly remembers.

KoB

Can you say “Red Storm Rising”?

The upcoming movie may have a different ending than the book did.

I’m sure that the Poles remember Katyn Forest.

Ex-PH2

How about “Bad Moon Rising”???

I wondered how long Vlad would wait to try to do this. So how much was he laughing up his sleeve when he saw Biteme making his :speech: and then actually met the person itself.

11B-Mailclerk

Logistics are of course a key. Can the poles march on Moscow again? (Look it up. They took that city once and laid it waste.) No.

Can they strike into Russian formations in Ukraine? Easily. F-16s and cluster bombs. Could they act to prevent a Russian rollover of Poland? Sure.

“Would they” is the “if” . Because they know they are next. And they remember well 1939, and the subsequent “alliance”.

Poland is NATO, so if they help Ukraine and Russia hits Poland…

Anonymous

That’s the way a hardcore commie works. (How the Russkies got into A’stan.)

Sapper3307

Ukraine got nice attack drones from Turkey, Vlade aint happy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svj2qpo2r-M

Chulai

I honestly don’t know what the hell we COULD do about it or how many Americans are willing to go fight another war in another third world country. The bunch running our military and our country couldn’t draw up plans for a circle jerk let alone a war with Russia. I have faith in the warriors of this country but absolutely none for their top leaders and I wouldn’t be telling my grandkids to join and fight for “truth, justice and the American way”. Just the opinion of one Old Marine Grunt.

Ex-PH2

Seconded.

Only Army Mom

Chulai –
good, but sad, point. During the last administration, I had hope and was happy to endorse the military as an honorable career choice to the kids of friends/family. I’ve heard from two who are now -worrying but not yet regretting – the choice, due to the current administration’s decisions and leadership.

They joined because they were proud and hopeful in the direction our country was moving. Now, though they say they’re not regretful, they doubt they would make the same decision. I can see the validity of that opinion.

Chulai

I thought I might encourage my grandsons to join the military, and I did to a point but that was before Brandon. If we’re ever going to face off against Russia or China we’re going to need a military that isn’t worried about hurt feeling or racial and gender quotas. Best of luck to the two young folks that joined, we do appreciate their service.

rgr769

Just listened to Gropey telling the Vlad to watch out cuz he has a plan to deter him from invading Ukraine. So, I’m not worried. But then what if Vlad coordinates with Xi and the ChiComs invade Taiwan at the same time The Bear moves on Ukraine? Somehow, I don’t think those sharply worded diplomatic communiques will have the desired effect.

Anonymous

Oh boy, job security…

“May you live in interesting times.” –Confucius

Roh-Dog

That mush head SoB is talking about limiting or restricting Russia from SWIFT. Where does he think those dollars are going to go? Besides, The Bear ain’t stupid, they’ve been net/net a seller of not only US Bonds but ANY USD denominated debt and have been adding about 20% onto their gold holdings (that’s from memory, timescale unkn. yr/yr?).

As of 2020 7% of all of the US’s petroleum imports were from Russia. How’re we going to make up the difference, Joe?! oh, wait…

“The business of the US is war. The business of China is business.” -Gerald Celente

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-mulls-cutting-russia-swift-ahead-putin-call-nuclear-option-response-ukraine

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

AT1 (Ret)

Good thing PedoJoe cut off ammo imports from Russia so they have less to use on Ukraine. [/sarc]

Sapper3307
USAF E-5

255k Ukrainian troops on active duty, another 1mil reservists. I’ve seen video’s of the female snipers at work. Pretty sure Russia has too. I’m betting more sabre rattling than drawing. Though seeing a few more “ships” in the Black Sea wouldn’t surprise me. Smart money for the Ukrainians would place mines strategically in the shallows, of their waters and wait for the fun to begin. Let Boris Explain his loss of several billion worth of gold to the bottom to his electorate. He’ll be unpopular in a hurry. Just saying.

5JC

With the doddering old man and the hooker at the helm we are about to get double teamed by Russia and China. Thank you so much US left wing media for selling out the US. I always wanted to a part of a disintegration of a great historic power.