Rough Winter Ahead?

| January 23, 2021

Feb 2011 blizzard front door        4’6″ inches of snow piled up

Is there a rough winter ahead of us?  That depends a lot on where you are.

Mongolia herders, for instance, are having a very tough time this winter. It’s cold, plummeting down as low as 58F, and there is not enough forage for the livestock to make it through the winter, because last year’s summer rains were insufficient to grow enough grass and hay to get livestock through the winter.  The four-leggers are literally dropping in their tracks, partly due to dehydration and loss of forage, and partly due to the bitter cold weather. So the International Red Cross is providing food for the yurt dwellers, while other people from the steppes are moving into cities to get through the winter.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mongolia-weather/mongolias-nomad-herders-facing-winter-disaster-as-temperatures-plunge-idUSKBN14C0HP

From the article:  Government officials have yet to declare a “dzud”, but the current climate is ideal for the natural disaster, said Lamjav Oyunjargal, the director for forecasting at the Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment.

“Officially, conditions are very difficult in Mongolia. Mostly we talk about livestock because it’s the main income of herder people in Mongolia, but it’s also dangerous for humans,” Oyunjargal said.

Dulaamsuren, who works at the National Emergency Management Agency in Bulgan province in remote northern Mongolia, said more than 3,000 local herders did not have enough supplies to last through the winter.

“We have enough hay until February or March, but we really should stock up more,” he said, adding that the region was now under 40 centimetres (11 inches) of snow, four times the usual level. – article

This is not the first time this has happened. It is a fact of life in Mongolia for the herders, who depend on their livestock for everything. But there have been several episodes of this in a row, and if the history of that area is really examined, it is quite a common occurrence for a dzud (dry summer followed by a severe winter) to occur. Drought in the summer should alert the herders that winter will be more harsh than usual. They’ve had several in a row since 2010. The likelihood that this is unusual is low, because the inhabitants of those areas have been there for millennia, and should know the weather cycles quite well. Complacency is not a good quality. They seem to be in a prolonged period of severe summer drought, which reduces grass crops that livestock depend on to get through winter. No rain, grass won’t grow more than it has to in order to survive. May not even form seed heads to replace forage that did not sprout in the spring.

As extreme winters are common, stocking supplies is paramount. As it is, IRC has released some funding to supply the needs of about 3,000 herders, but that is insufficient,  per this article:  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/12/red-cross-releases-funds-to-mongolia-at-risk-of-extreme-winter

Here’s another link to an article with several photos showing the IRC delivering supplies to the herder families.  https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/2021/01/21/mongolian-extreme-winter-season-dzud-pictures/

Since these people, whose ancestors for centuries roamed the plains of Mongolia with their livestock, still depend on their livestock for everything, setting aside enough supplies for a rough winter after a rough summer season is a lesson to everyone, not just the Mongols. Several years of bad summers followed by equally damaging winters ought to be a lesson to anyone who depends on livestock or hunting for everything from food to clothing. It also applies to an agrarian area: last summer’s weather was fairly calm in many areas, but that can change quickly.

The years of the Dust Bowl in the 1930s aren’t all that long ago, caused partly by a lack of monsoonal air flow out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Plains states, causing a severe drought, and partly by bad farming practices. And yes, it can happen again, although there are enough irrigation methods available now to moderate that possibility. It wasn’t more than a couple of years ago when the Corps of Engineers had to fortify the shores of Lake Michigan, which has water levels that have varied from 26 inches lower than today to upwards of 45 inches higher than now. They were also called on to bolster and in some places raise, the levees on the Mississippi River a few years ago, in order to keep the southward flow of water from all Ole Man River’s sources from overwhelming the Corps of Engineers’ levees and banks and flooding farmlands the way it did in 1993. There have been several years when floods broke dams and wiped out thousands of acres of good cropland, so it isn’t something new.

In fact, none of it is new: it’s just weather, which we can’t control any more than we can control which way the wind blows. So that money-grubbing scam labeled the Paris Climate Accord wants the current administration to kowtow and fork over some cash, for something that is nothing but a scam. And the current pomp & circumstance crowd are only to eager to do it. A closer look at the reality of warm periods versus cold periods, when glaciers ruled the planet and megafauna were the dominant critters, tells us that this 18,000 year period of warmth may be coming to an end. They howl about CO2 and how it is such a threat, when, in FACT,  CO2, which is 0.04% of the gases in the atmosphere has a spectral absorption band that allows it to retain a certain amount of heat in the atmosphere, and that may be the only thing that is staving off the next ice sheet build-up. 

The Sun is dormant, has been since 2006 when it burped, sent out a massive flare, and then shut down. Sunspot counts are low or nothing, and sunspots are indicative of an active sun. Volcanoes erupting didn’t stop humans from moving on. There was plenty of migration to other places long before settlements were built, following herds and driving mammoths off of cliffs – that sort of thing. But that was about 18,000 years ago, when the last ice sheets were beginning to melt back and following the herds of four-leggers was the order of the day.  There are other factors that enter into this, but during the emergence of this current warm period, people began to build settlements like a village being excavated in southwest Jordan.  Humans went from being the so-called hunter-gatherers to farming, herding livestock and domesticating plants, goats. cattle, dogs (and cats) and other critters for food and clothing. Somewhere along the way, beer was invented when wheat was soaked in water to soften it for making bread.  But all good things come to an end at some point, and this period of warmth and plenty, in which civilization was fortunate enough to grow and expand, may be ending. Throwing tax money at something that is nothing but a scam, when it could be used for better purposes, is not going to stave off anything at all.

 

 

 

 

Category: Ivory Tower Idiocy

Comments (17)

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  1. OldManchu says:

    Great post. Very good read.

    However…. Lars will be here shortly. Panting and out of breath, full of double spaced dribble, to explain to you what is really happening.

    And I bet $5 he can’t get through it without the word or words “orange” or “Trump”.

    • KoB says:

      Ditto…all of the above!

      And I’ll see your $5 and raise you another $5 that there will be multitudes of f bombs and personal attacks on Ex-PH2!

      Another reason the Communist Chinese would like to take over the US. We have enough arable land to feed people AND our critters.

      Tanks Matette!

    • Ex-PH2 says:

      I left out the other three “greenhouse gases” on purpose, y’know. That Certain Someone does have a way of producing his own volume of methane, water vapor and nitrous oxide without even the consideration of including CO2. 🙂

    • HMCS(FMF) ret says:

      He’ll bring up the infamous “hockey stick graph” and preach the words of Michael Mann…

    • Anonymous says:

      C’mon, Lars, tell us about how Global Warming will melt to polar ice caps and have using swimming around in mid-Winter.

  2. 26Limabeans says:

    There is no snow for snowmobiling in northern Maine.
    There is no safe ice on any lake or pond either.
    Temps have been, remain and are forcast to be mild.
    It really is remarkable. I’m pretty sure it will go
    the other way soon enough though. Still only late January.
    I’m sure Biden is on top of it.

    • Ex-PH2 says:

      It’s the jet stream: the Rossby waves are deeper than I’ve ever seen them, so where I live, we do get cold but only for a few hours and some snow. The National Weather Service has maps of that, and while my area should be getting winter snow, we’ve hardly gotten any. It’s all gone south to the west of us, and then northeast when that loop-de-loop hits bottom, but we are NOT getting any of it.

      Today it’s cold, but last week, it was in the 40s and sloppy slop precipitation. You’re probably getting the same thing. Jet stream is way out of whack.

      But it explains why the geese were still heading south on Dec. 31, 2020, when they were not in any hurry to go further if they didn’t have to.

      • SFC D says:

        Jet stream is looping way south. Expecting a snow day Tuesday at The Cantina , Irish coffee components are prepped.

      • UpNorth says:

        Same here, Ex. Supposed to be in low 30’s this week, until Friday when we’re supposed to get up to the low 40’s.
        Over the years, we averaged 43 inches of snow up to today’s date, except this year we’ve had about 9.5 inches of snow. There’s barely enough on the ground to cover the grass.

      • Ret_25X says:

        in an ironic data point, the rotation of the earth was slightly faster since 2020 started. The impact to the jet stream of rotation and axis changes is still not well understood, but it is assumed in the study that found this that the shape and position would be impacted at some level.

        But I’m sure the “scientist say” take will be, SUVs cause change in earth’s rotation!

  3. And I thought that Zero Point Dipshit temperature was bad.

  4. David says:

    re the Dust Bowl, thousands of miles of hedgerows and trees weree planted to prevent vast areas of topsoil being blown away in a heavy drought. Now, of course, most of those windbreaks and hedgerows have been pulled out again because they interfere with large agribusiness tilling and harvesting practices.

  5. Slow Joe says:

    Excellent article, Ex-PH2.

    I always look forward to your take on climate and sun activity.

  6. Slow Joe says:

    Mongolia is a 3.5 million people country with a 47 billion dollar GDP. I am sure they can take care of that 3,000 herders internally.
    Though of course, weather like this ripple through the national economy.

  7. The Other Whitey says:

    Maybe the People of the Steppe should handle their shortages the old-fashioned way: by raiding the ever-loving shit out of China. It is, after all, a Mongol tradition!

  8. President Elect Toxic Deplorable Racist SAH B Woodman Grammar Nazi says:

    We’re FINALLY getting some appreciable snow accumulation on the SLC valley floor.
    Up to now, we’ve gotten the occasional skiff of snow, here one minute, gone the next.
    The weather is finally turning to true winter. We need as much snow as possible to not have a drought this summer.