So: If All US Vehicles Were Electric . . . Could We Charge Them?

| August 29, 2020

Intro

Last week, I wrote an article debunking the EPA’s blatantly misleading “108 MPG equivalent highway” claim for a particular electric vehicle, the 2020 Chevy Bolt. But part of a comment to that article made by longtime TAH reader rgr769 caught my eye – and made me wonder:

. . . . If everyone in the country had electric vehicles, there would be rolling brownouts daily . . . .

Well, longtime readers can probably see what’s coming. (smile) Yeah, I decided to do a reasonably “quick and dirty” estimate to see whether or not that statement is likely correct.

Consider yourself forewarned. And yes, as in the previous article there’s some math involved. But as before, for this level of analysis the math also turns out to be pretty straightforward and simple.

Data and Assumptions

Here are the data and assumptions I used in doing the estimate. Where they’re likely not realistic, I’ve indicated so – and wherever I know I’m being unrealistic, I believe I’ve consistently erred on the side favoring electric vehicles.

Assumption 1: the 2020 Chevy Bolt’s battery pack capacity of 66kWh (Source 1 below) is representative of what would be required for the average electric vehicle’s (electric vehicles will hereafter be referred to as “EV” for brevity) battery pack capacity. Frankly, that’s probably a “lowball” figure for a fleet-wide average for at least two reasons. First, many vehicles in the US are far larger than the Bolt and/or haul or tow cargo. Those larger vehicles – and those hauling cargo – would require higher-capacity batteries than the Bolt if they were EVs.  Second:  a one-way range of between 200 and 250 miles – followed by a multi-hour charging period – IMO probably isn’t sufficient to convince much of the general public to make the switch to an EV. Longer range also will require a higher-capacity battery pack, in turn requiring more energy to charge. (EVs are already quite efficient with respect to using energy that has already been generated, transmitted, converted, and stored in their batteries – provided you don’t use heat or AC – so we’re likely not going to see much more improvement on that score. It’s the production, transmission, and conversion of the energy needed to charge those additional EV batteries in the first place that’s the “long pole”.)

Still, ya gotta start somewhere. So 66kWh per vehicle battery capacity is what I’ll go with below.

Assumption 2: EV charger efficiency and transmission line losses (Sources 2 and 3 below) remain at 92% and 5%, respectively. Frankly, IMO those aren’t likely to change much at all unless we either develop room-temperature superconductors or achieve a major technological breakthrough in AC-to-DC conversion technology. (Wanna become obscenely rich? Invent a material that does the former or come up with a technology that does the latter, then patent it.)

Assumption 3: there were 1,500,000 EVs in the US at the end of 2019. That’s probably high; Source 4 below indicates 1,000,000 as of late 2018. But I’ll be generous, even though I’d be surprised if the actual figure for the end of 2019 was more than about 1,150,000 or thereabouts (a 15% increase from near the end of 2018).

Assumption 4: all US vehicles “go electric” – including buses, trucks, motorcycles, etc . . . . This is the proverbial “wet dream” of the EV      religious fanatics       proponents (and of most environmentalists and “green energy” proponents as well). So what the hell – let’s make that assumption.

Per Source 5 below, there were approximately 284,500,000 total vehicles registered in the US in 2019. (Other sources give somewhat different numbers, but they’re all in the same ballpark, give or take.) Per that source, around half of them were trucks, buses, etc . . . – but that’s likely very misleading. Many common vehicles used for daily personal transportation (e.g., pickup trucks, SUVs, and minivans) have been classified as “light trucks” for years; they’re likely carried in the same category as trucks and buses.  So we’ll assume that they’re all covered under that 66kWh battery pack average above too.

Bottom line:  if every motor vehicle in the US was electric, then we’d need to charge around 283,000,000 more EVs than we’re charging today.  So that’s the number I’ll use for additional EVs below.

Assumption 5: each EV on average gets the equivalent of a full charge once a week, except for 2 weeks annually when the owner is “on vacation”. Seems to me to be as good a guess as any for an average. Yes, some vehicles are “garage queens” that don’t get driven much; these might require one charge monthly, or even less. Others, however, get driven substantial distances daily and will thus require charging multiple times weekly. And larger EVs, even if they only get one charge a week, will be charging much larger capacity batteries (and thus require more electricity per charge). So I’ll assume all of that balances out and go with this assumption.  My guess is that this is overly optimistic, but maybe not.

That’s really all we need. From that info, one can calculate a reasonable estimate of how much additional US electric generation capacity would be required to charge those 283,000,000 additional EV batteries given the above assumptions.  And yes, it’s really additional generation; we’re already using the electricity we produce today.  Additional EV charging means we’ll need additional electric generation capacity to do said charging.

Calculations

Step 1: Determine how much electrical energy must be generated to charge all those additional EVs completely one time.

Under Assumption 3 above, we already have 1.5 million EVs in the US; presumably we’re already charging those. Since we have approximately 284,500,000 registered vehicles in the US, if the entire US vehicle fleet were electric that means we’re talking about charging an additional 283,000,000 EVs – each requiring 66kWh of energy per full charge.  (Like Joules, BTUs, and ft-lbs, a kilowatt-hour – or kWh – is a measure of energy, not power. Power is defined as the rate at which energy is consumed, transferred, or converted and is specified in terms of the amount of energy consumed/transferred/converted per unit time.  Typical units for power are watts/kilowatts/megawatts and horsepower.) Doing the math indicates those additional EV batteries will collectively store

66 kWh/EV x 283,000,000 additional EVs = 18,678,000,000 kWh (battery)

of energy for future use each time they are fully charged.

Now, that’s the amount of energy stored in those additional EVs batteries after each full charge. As I noted in my previous article, battery chargers are not 100% efficient. Let’s assume again that the EV chargers are about 92% efficient (that figure may be higher than actual, based on data from 2014, but I’ll use it anyway to account for potential improvements in charger technology since then).  Doing so we end up with the following amount of energy required at the wall socket:

18,678,000,000 kWh (battery)   /   0.92 = 20,302,173,913 kWh (wall socket)

A further correction is required for the average 5% of electricity lost in transmission from generating plant to wall socket:

20,302,173,913 kWh (wall socket) / 0.95 = 21,370,709,382 kWh (generated)

That’s how much electrical energy must be generated to charge fully each those additional 283,000,000 EVs one time.

Step 2: Determine how much additional electricity is required annually.

Under Assumption 5, on average each EV gets the equivalent of a full charge once per week, except for those 2 weeks per year when the owner is presumed to be on vacation. That means annually we need

21,370,709,382 kWh (generated) x 50 = 1,068,535,469,108 kWh

of electrical energy to charge all those additional EVs.

(For anyone checking the calculations by hand, the apparent “extra” 8 kWh didn’t appear by magic. Rather, it is due to decimal fractions of a kWh hidden by rounding in an earlier step. The actual figure for electrical energy generated was rounded down from 21,370,709,382.151+ kWh. Multiply that number by 50 and round to the nearest kWh and you get the number above – including the apparent “extra” 8 kWh.)

Step 3: Determine how much additional electric generation capacity is required.  As noted above, the kWh is a unit of energy; generators are typically rated in terms of electrical power generation capacity – e.g., kW or MW.  We thus need to know how much generation capacity is required to generate that amount of electrical energy.

However, power is merely the rate at which energy is transferred, consumed to do mechanical work, or converted to another form of energy.  Thus, for a given time interval average power supplied multiplied by the length of the time interval yields the energy used during that time interval.  Conversely, to determine the additional electrical power generation requirement to charge those 283,000,000 EV batteries each year, that means we need to divide the above annual kWh figure (total energy required) by the amount of time, expressed in hours, during which that energy must be provided. (For simplicity, I’m ignoring AC power factor effects. Power factor effects will raise the amount of generating capacity required. How much would power factor effects increase the generation capacity required? Good question, and one I’m not going to attempt to answer; I don’t have data concerning the typical transmission grid and battery charger power factors.  I’d guess the increase to be not more than 15-20%, and probably less. But that’s a guess, and I could easily be wrong.)

Looking at the above, we have three cases to consider.

Case 1: the additional load required to charge those 283,000,000 additional EVs is perfectly evenly distributed during the day and throughout the year. While this case is almost certainly unrealistic, this is the best case scenario from the perspective of minimizing the additional generation capacity required. Under this case, the annual energy required in kWh to charge all those additional EV batteries is divided by the number of hours in a year (24 x 365 = 8,760) to find the total additional electric generation capacity required. Doing this yields

1,068,535,469,108 kWh / 8,760h = 121,978,934.83 kW, or 121,978.93 MW

Assuming 93% power plant availability, generating that much additional electricity would require approximately 131 additional 1,000 MWe nuclear plants – “additional”, as in “plants that don’t currently exist”. Alternatively, it would require about 328 additional 400 MWe combined cycle (gas turbine + steam cycle secondary) generating plants.  (Obviously, some other combination of generating capacity totaling roughly 121,980 MWe would also satisfy the additional demand.)

Case 2: for reasons I discussed in the previous article, it’s extremely unlikely that the charging of those 283,000,000 additional EVs would be uniformly distributed during a typical day.  (The daily charging distribution requirements would also almost certainly vary throughout the year and by location due to varying local AC and/or heating requirements for each EV, but these variations in the grand scheme of things would IMO likely be dwarfed by the time of day variation.  I’m thus going to ignore those sources of variation.)  Rather, given human nature much if not the vast majority of EV charging would likely occur between the hours of 9AM and 10PM local – or, in other words, during peak load hours. In this case, the energy required must at best be generated during a 1/3 shorter period (16 hrs daily – 13 hrs plus the 3 hr time difference between Eastern and Pacific times).  This yields a far larger generation capacity increase. It also limits the technology choices we have to generate that power – e.g., we won’t be using nuclear in this case.

To a simple (and somewhat unrealistically low) approximation, however, accounting for that eventuality is doable. Rather than 8,760 hours annually, in that case we need to produce the energy required for EV charging during 16 x 365 = 5,840 hours annually (13 hours, 9AM to 10PM, plus 3 hours to account for the time difference between Eastern and Pacific time). That in turn means we need

1,068,535,469,108 kWh / 5,840 h = 182,968,402.24 kW, or 182,968.40 MW

of additional peak load generating capacity. Again assuming 93% availability, that’s the equivalent additional electric power requirement of 492 additional 400 MWe combined cycle generating plants. (Nuclear generation wouldn’t be an option under this scenario because current nuclear plant designs simply can’t start up and shut down quickly enough to handle peak load variations. That’s why nuclear power is used almost exclusively in satisfying the US electric grid’s baseload.)

Even that’s probably quite optimistic, because it assumes the EV charging load to be distributed uniformly between 9AM Eastern and 10PM Pacific time. Human nature says it’s far more likely that a large portion if not most of that EV charging will instead occur during a much shorter period:  between 4 and 10PM daily, when people arrive home from work/school/activities/errands/etc . . . and plug in their EV so that will be fully charged for the next day.  Since the total energy required remains the same, that temporal “bunching” in charging those additional US EVs would add even more to the additional peak generation requirement imposed by EV charging.

Doing that new calculation is more complex (you have to make assumptions regarding what fraction of EV charging occurs during each hour of the day), and in any case the result above is already so ugly I’m not going to present that more detailed and realistic case.  Suffice it to say that for that case the required additional generation capacity would almost certainly be significantly larger than either figure above.

Case 3:  everyone charges their EV during “off peak” hours from 10PM to 6AM local time (more precisely, for the entire nation EV charging would begin at 10PM Eastern time and would end at 6AM the next day Pacific time).  In theory, this could be done, either manually (not likely) or using a time or “smart” charger – provided everyone did so of course.  And at first glance, it seems like a “no brainer” solution.

In reality, this isn’t all that good an idea either.  Doing this means you have to generate all the electricity required to charge those 283,000,000 additional EVs in an 11 hour time period daily – not in 16 or 24 hours.  That works out 4,015 hours annually.  That in turn means that the minimum additional generation capacity required is

1,068,535,469,108 kWh / 4,015 h = 266,135,857.81 kW, or 266,135.85 MW

Now, it appears that part of that additional required load could be handled by existing peak load generation capacity that’s not currently used between 10PM and 6AM – but much of it could not.  What that means is you’ve just created a new daily peak load – one that is somewhere around 130,000 MW higher than was the previous daily peak load (there appears to be somewhere between 100,000 MW and 150,000 MW typical difference between the US baseload and maximum peak load; the 130,000 MW figure I give above assumes it’s 130,000 MW and thus “splits the difference” in terms of total additional generation required).  That new daily peak now occurs between 10PM and 6AM – not during the early evening as it did previously.  The upshot is that we’d need an additional 130,000 MW or so of peak load generation capacity to satisfy the new demand – and probably more.

Or, alternatively, since the US baseload is now much higher (the US grid’s daily minimum load under this scenario would occur somewhere around noon-ish vice during the early morning hours) you could simply build a load of nuclear plants and use the existing peak load generation at different hours instead, adding more peak load capacity if and where required.  Based on the graphs of US daily load variation for March (Source 6), my “eyeball” estimate of that split would be around 100,000 MWe nuclear (to satisfy the new additional baseload) and the remaining 30,000 MWe from other sources to satisfy the part of the higher peak not met by currently-existing peak load generating assets.  Assuming 93% plant availability, that works out to 108 additional nuclear plants with 1,000 MWe generation capability and 75 combined cycle plants with 400MWe generation capability.  (Other combinations could obviously work too.)

That’s not as bad as Case 2, but in terms of additional generation capacity required it’s still a bit worse than Case 1.

Effect on Power Grid

So, what would this additional load do to today’s power grid? Glad you asked.

It ain’t that pretty at all.

From eyeballing the graph of US daily electric grid load for March 2017 – 2020 presented in the previous article (Source 6), during the month of March the US electric grid’s baseload (the term is defined and discussed in Source 7) appears to be about 350,000 MW.  That means under the best case above (e.g., completely uniform distribution of EV charging throughout the day and year, enabling the charging to be handled by baseload generation while minimizing the total additional generation capacity required), an additional 121,978.93 MW of baseload generating capacity would be needed – or an increase of nearly 35% . Ouch.

And remember:  that’s best case. More realistically, a large part if not the vast majority of additional EV charging load will likely occur during peak load (defined and discussed in Source 8) hours. If all that charging is done between 9AM Eastern and 10PM Pacific time, that means we more likely need an additional 182,968.40 MWe of peak load generating capacity to satisfy that additional EV charging. That’s an increase in peak load generating capacity of 146.37+% – or an increase that represents somewhere between doubling and tripling current peak load generation requirements. And we probably need even more of an increase in peak load generation capability than that in this case, since that figure assumes the load required to charge all those additional EVs is evenly distributed between 9AM Eastern and 10PM Pacific times.  In reality, it probably won’t be.

Ouch, hell – that’s “Oh, sh*t!!” or “You’re joking, right?” territory.

The “everybody charge between 10PM and 6AM local” is a bit worse than the first case in terms of additional generation required – but it’s far better than the second case.  But it’ still worse than the first case – and good luck with getting everyone to comply with that case voluntarily.  It’s also not exactly feasible for those who work a “graveyard” shift and don’t have access to a charging station at work.

Why Not Produce/Store/Use Later?

Don’t even ask.   Storing the equivalent of even one large electric generating plant’s daily output is, simply, in general not a particularly attractive option today for both technical and economic reasons.  And we’d need way more than one additional such storage facility.

To put things into perspective:  the largest currently operating pumped hydro storage station in the world – the Bath County Pumped Storage Storage Station in Bath County, VA (Source 9) – can store a net total 24,000MWh of electricity for later use.  That is one day’s output of a single 1,000 MWe generating plant.  To store the energy needed to charge 283,000,000 additional EVs, you’re talking storing a significant fraction (e.g, around 20%) of the entire US electric grid’s average daily electrical energy production after it has been increased to support EV charging.  Specifically, you’d need to store 121,978.93 MW x 24 hrs = 2,927,494.32 MWh of electrical energy. And that’s not the total additional electric power that would be required to do that, either (and which would have to be generated). Pumped storage stores electricity after it’s been generated elsewhere.  Pumped hydro storage has losses due to evaporation, energy used in pumping, and electric generation efficiency that is always less than 100%.  These losses typically mean that in only somewhere between 70% and 80% of the energy used during the “pump” part of pumped hydroelectric storage can be recovered during the “generation” part (Source 10).

That in turn means that along with sufficient additional generating capacity to generate the electricity required to charge those 283,000,000 EV batteries in the first place, to operate in “generate/store/use later” mode we’d also need to build the equivalent of 122 additional Bath County Pumped Storage Stations at a cost (in 2019 dollars) of $3.82 billion each and taking literally years to build.  We’d also (assuming 25% pumped-storage losses) need to build around 30,500 MWe more additional electric generating capability to cover the estimated pumped-storage energy losses.  Oh, and I also wish you the best of luck in getting the required EPA approvals for all of those 122 huge new pumped hydro storage plants.

Something tells me all that just ain’t gonna happen, amigo.

Conclusions

It appears that rgr769 was correct. If all vehicles in the US were EVs, from the above it certainly appears that today’s US electric grid simply could not handle the additional load imposed by EV charging.  Charging those additional 283,000,000 EVs would require a daily average of roughly 122,000 MWe of generation capacity (if done using baseload power), and around 1 1/2 times that (or more) if done during peak load hours.  That means EV charging would be raising total US electricity generation requirements by a minimum of around 20-25% – and probably considerably more than that if (as is likely) EV charging is done largely during peak load hours.

I’ll go out on a limb here and say that most if not all public utilities don’t have enough unused spare capacity today to handle a 20% increase in their baseload – much less the far larger percentage increase in peak load generation that the IMO far more likely peak hours charging would require – without building a serious number of new power plants.  Building new generating plants costs serious money, and building large plants also takes years.

All US vehicles “going EV” in a relatively short period of time therefore implies that utilities would be forced to impose either draconian price increases (supply and demand) or rationing schemes (e.g., rolling brownouts/blackouts) in order to ration the available electric power. And since utility rates are typically regulated by state public utility commissions, I’d bet long odds that it would be the latter (brownouts/blackouts) vice the former.  Why?  Because then the public service commission officials can point their fingers at the utility companies (for not having enough generating capacity) vice taking responsibility for approving a massive rate increase.

So, what about the future? I can’t say I’m terribly hopeful there, either – though as the little kid in the movie “Angels In the Outfield” put it:  “Hey . . . it could happen!” Building a new nuclear plant takes 10+ years and costs literally billions to tens of billions of dollars (though a standardized design and pre-approval/dramatically shortened review of same by the NRC for plants built to that standard design, together with some other regulatory changes not adversely impacting safety, could IMO possibly cut the cost to around $4-5 billion per plant). But thanks to     enviro-whackos      those “fine individuals” in the environmental movement who think all things nuclear are tools of Satan and who have convinced much if not most of the public that “Nuke . . . baaaad!”, good luck with getting ANY new nuclear plants built anytime soon.  Add in court time for the inevitable lawsuits and I’d guess it will be 15 years or more before any new nuclear electricity comes on-line in the US. And that’s if we literally started today.

Besides, nuclear plants aren’t used to satisfy daily load variations.  If (as appears very likely due to human nature) most EV charging occurs between 9AM and 10PM local, with a large fraction of that occurring between 4PM and 10PM local . . . well, you’re not going to be using nuclear power to do that.

As for getting gas-fired plants approved, that might be doable – if you can figure out somewhere to build them that won’t get the environmentalists’ and affected localities’ skivvies all knotted up.  From a technical standpoint, the best places for those new plants would be in or near major cities.  That’s where most EV owners will be living, at least initially; putting them in those locations would minimize transmission losses and thus ease the crunch a bit.

Yeah, right – good luck with that, too. Ever hear the acronym “NIMBY”? Everyone wants their electricity, but no one wants the power plant close to their house.

But what about renewable sources – wind, hydro, and solar? Get serious. Solar is at best available half the time, and even then is subject to being degraded by time of year and the weather – the latter unpredictably. Wind is, well, at the mercy of the wind; no wind, no wind power. And hydro is – thanks to the environmentalists – pretty much a non-starter. Good luck with getting any new large hydro plants approved once the environmental movement starts filing court challenges. And as discussed above, storage on the scale required just isn’t feasible – and is a losing proposition from an energy-used-in-storage-vice-energy-recovered perspective anyway.

Finally:  the numbers above are estimates; as such, they’re not carved in stone.  Don’t like the additional capacity numbers I came up with above? Think they’re too high – maybe because the average EV will only need the equivalent of a full charge every 2 weeks, or that the number of conventional or hybrid vehicles replaced by EVs will be less than 1-for-1?  Fine. Cut my numbers above in half if you like.

Doing that’s the equivalent of replacing only 1/2 of the current US vehicle fleet with electric vehicles instead of all of them. That that would still cause massive problems for today’s electric grid. The current US electric grid almost certainly couldn’t handle even that 50% reduced scenario today. Major upgrades costing hundreds of billions and taking a decade or more would be required. That that doesn’t include any upgrades to the power distribution grid itself (new transmission lines, power substations, transformers, etc . . .). Those would almost certainly be required too.

Even in that revised scenario, the US electric grid’s baseload would still increase by close to 17% (around 61,000 MWe) if EV charging were distributed uniformly throughout the day – and that’s the best possible case. If the majority of EV charging is done when human nature indicates it very likely will be (e.g., while people are at work, or starting not long after people return home for the day), well, then you’re still talking increasing the US electric grid’s peak load generation requirements by somewhere approaching 75% – and possibly substantially more.

The only case that “works” – marginally – under this reduced scenario would be to mandate that each EV owner only charge once per week per EV during a utility- or government- assigned mandatory “time slot” between 10PM and 6AM one day per week; miss your time slot or need more and you’re SOL.  (Since this scenario would require running peak load generation most of the day, that charging would also no longer occur during “off-peak hours” – so tell those “off-peak rates” goodbye, too.)  And good luck with getting people to live with that. 

Further, even this last reduced scenario – assigned mandatory charging times between 10PM and 6AM local, which is already marginal – becomes questionable if vehicles with larger batteries than the Bolt’s battery pack are in the mix or if chargers operate non-linearly with respect to charging batteries (e.g., charge more rapidly at first, then tail off as the battery approaches full charge). I’m guessing we’d see both. 

Final Thoughts

Bottom line: EVs are a good choice for some situations and some people.  If you want one, feel free to buy one with your own funds. But add enough of them to the US vehicle inventory, and at some point absent a truly massive upgrade the nationwide electric grid simply won’t be able to supply the electricity needed to charge them all. Make all US vehicles electric – assuming that’s even technically possible, which it isn’t today due to battery limitations – and things get really ugly.  And even best case, it would almost certainly take a decade plus and hundreds of billions of dollars (more likely $1 trillion plus) to install the additional generating capacity required if we started literally today.  Two decades and closer to $2 trillion would be my guess.

Higher electricity rates? Almost certainly.  The capital investment required for building all that new generation capacity isn’t going to appear by magic, and the cost utility companies would pay in obtaining that necessary capital would in turn be passed along to the consumer.  There would also likely be a general rise in interest rates due to competition in the borrowing market from utility companies borrowing money to finance the new generating plants needed. And if the majority of the new plants built are gas-fired, you’re probably talking substantial natural gas price increases as well due to that pesky thing called “supply and demand”.

Less than 0.5% of US vehicles today are EVs.  Personally, I place the chances of seeing 50% EVs in this nation during my lifetime in the “snowball’s chance in hell” category – unless, of course, some future      Leftist dictatorship     “Progressive” US government imposes such a mandate while I’m still on this side of the dirt, then enforces same through draconian means rivaling those of the worst autocratic police states in history. And even then, I’d give 50-50 odds that such a mandate would be impossible to fulfill anyway. Hell, I’d be surprised if 50% EVs is the case any time during my kids’ lifetime, much less mine.

But hey . . . it could happen! (smile)

. . .

Postscript:  And before anyone accuses me again, falsely, of being a “shill” for the fossil fuel industry:  how about you just go get bent instead.  If I had my ’druthers, we wouldn’t be using anywhere near as much in the way of fossil fuels today.  Fossil fuels come with some serious environmental “baggage”, and IMO we should minimize their use where we can.

Unfortunately, doing all of that would have required building a large number of additional nuclear plants, reprocessing nuclear fuel, and as well as making significant investments in other technologies.  It would have also required starting 40+ years ago. But we did neither – so we’re where we are today.

Why didn’t’ we do that?  Two reasons IMO.

First, you can thank those      damned enviro-whackos     “wonderful” anti-nuclear activists back in the 1970s (and their technically ignorant enablers in the media and Hollywood) who decided, “Nukes . . . . baaaad; reprocessing . . . . worse!” – and who eventually managed to sell that load of BS to the public.  Second, you can thank Jimmuh the Peanut and his clown crew cronies for caving to political pressure rather than providing any actual leadership concerning US nuclear power and long-term energy policy during his abomination of an Administration.

Then again, Jimmuh the Peanut was pretty good at screwing up damn near everything he touched while POTUS.  So my second reason above should really be no surprise.

———-

Sources:

1 – Chevy Bolt Range Test: https://insideevs.com/reviews/423144/chevy-bolt-ev-70-mph-range-test/

2 – EV Battery Charger Efficiency: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7046253

3 – Average Power Transmission Loss Data: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3

4 – Number of US Electric Vehicles, late 2018: https://www.eei.org/resourcesandmedia/newsroom/Pages/Press%20Releases/EEI%20Celebrates%201%20Million%20Electric%20Vehicles%20on%20U-S-%20Roads.aspx

5 – Number of Registered Vehicles in the US, 2019: https://hedgescompany.com/automotive-market-research-statistics/auto-mailing-lists-and-marketing/

6 – Graph of US Daily Load, March, 2017-2020: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43295

7 – Baseload Explained: https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Baseload_power

8 – Peaking Power Explained: https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Peaking_power

9 – Wikipedia article, Bath County Pumped Storage Station: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_County_Pumped_Storage_Station

10 – Wikipedia article, Pumped-Storage Hydroelectrity:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity

Category: Economy, Global Warming, Reality Check, Science and Technology

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Sapper3307

“Our facts don’t care about your math.”
AOC/Bernie

USAFRetired

In keeping with the scientific and logical nature of this post, shouldn’t that read “wish in one had and defecate in the other and tell us which gets full faster”?

That was my father the retired Marine’s version of political correctness.

Pam 645X0

My late father (USAF Retired) used to say the same thing.

HMCS(FMF) ret

My late father (Retired Navy BRCM) wasn’t into the PC game… and didn’t care if it hurt your feelings.

USAFRetired

One of my favorite Far Side cartoons showed this enormous spaghetti diagram flow chart kind of thing with some scientists standing around it one with a pointer. There is a block on the flow chart labeled “Then a miracle occurs” The caption of the cartoon reads “We need some more detail right here”

IMO that kind of system engineering is the only way the total electric pipe dream can occur. Never mind the carbon output to generate the necessary electric power.

26Limabeans

My favorite Gary Larson cartoon is the flight instructor pointing to
a switch labeled “wings stay on / wings fall off” and telling the
student to never touch that switch.

Just the way he draws scientists in lab coats is hilarious and
his depiction of dogs is spot on.

rgr769

Yeah, their “truth is more important than facts. C’mon man.” —Gropey Joe Biden

26Limabeans

“If All US Vehicles Were Electric . . . Could We Charge Them?”

Yes…charge them all a Carbon Tax.

11B-Mailclerk

We fund roads in large part by taxing gasoline and diesel.

The pols are positively salivating at moving the tax to household electricity. Think double or triple the rate you currently pay. Or more.

The pols are positively salivating at the requirement to transponder your vehicle so they can assess road tax, and “oh coincidence!” know where each car is every moment, no that isn’t a police state no it won’t be misused or sold to third parties you crazy person.

And they will say “too many cars!” And limit who can have one while subsidizing those who do. You should walk or take the bus or “light rail” anyway.

And as for how to make it all work, they will just order it to work, and force you to make it work, and blame you when their central planning schemes inevitably fail.

What could be the downside?

26Limabeans

“moving the tax to household electricity”

I presently pay 5.5% sales tax on anything above 900 Kwh.
I also have electric heat (love it) for the house, garage and two sheds.
The backup generator though runs on tax free heating oil. Go figure.

5th/77th FA

Hondo, daHell you doing bringing all of them pesky facts to the table? EVs will work because AOC and Bernie has feelz for them.

One point you did forget tho. How long will it take to build nearly 300 millions of EVs? And that’s just for the US. With the One World Globalists taking over, you get an EV, you get an EV, you get an EV, EVERYBODY gets an EV. Oh, and are we gonna make all the tractors, combines/harvesters/cotton pickers (can we say cotton pickers anymore or is that rayciss?)?

Maybe we won’t need that many EVs, after all, under that economy how many people are going to need a way to work? How many jobs are going to disappear? The ones working the collective farms, doing the planting and harvesting (by hand), won’t be needing any wheels, neither will the ones living in the cinder block factory towns where the consumer goods for the elite are made. Oh, wait, all of that will be made in China.

Slow Joe will not read your post.

Commissar

Our capacity will grown with demand.

As it always has,

comment image

And we also expect car ownership to fall in urban areas with the adoption of driverless vehicles. You can simply use an app to be picked up and dropped off by driverless vehicles operated by companies like Uber and Lyft, or their future competition.

Car ownership is a huge pain in the ass in urban areas. But necessary for.most due to the inflexibility of mass transit and limited capacity to transport groceries or personal items on mass transit.

Fleets of driverless electric vehicles will be a much more convenient and inexpensive alternative for many people in urban areas.

We also expect telecommuting to be on the rise in the future. In fact this year accelerated that shift, many companies were previously reticent to shift to telecommuting. Additionally this year accelerated the development of more features pact and more robust telecommuting technologies.

26Limabeans

You’re not from around here are you?

Show me an electric 3/4 ton 4×4 with a plow, cab and windshield
heater for sub zero weather, that can keep my 2 mile long driveway
open all winter and I will buy it. The simple battery motor drive
will be a great maintenance free solution to the constant internal
combustion repairs and complexity. With sixteen acres of land I can
set up solar charging stations all along the driveway.
Plow a few hundred feet..charge..plow a few hundred feet…charge.
With just six hours/day of sunlight in January I could plow for
at least a few minutes if I leave the blade down.

Bonus fact:
The California solar system has 13,383 megawatts of installed capacity
yet rarely produces one thrid of that on a good day. At night the
system produces nothing yet consumes 240 megawatts all night long.
It consumes power in the dark! Why is that? I will leave that as a
homework assignment for you.

Check it out for yourself daytime then again nightime.
It is a daily look see for me just for a morning chuckle:

http://www.caiso.com/informed/Pages/CleanGrid/default.aspx

rgr769

Naw, the commie cuttlefish aka mendacious mollusk lives in Commiefornia, in the San Fransicko Bay Area where it never gets very hot or very cold.

Ex-PH2

You left out the part about the destruction of birds and bats by solar farms, animals which are necessary to destroy destructive insects.
Bats as a group by themselves consume millions of them. The insects eaten include mosquitoes, leafhoppers, beetles, rootworm larva, moths, grasshoppers, scorpions, centipedes, ants, flies, and crickets.

Birds around the world eat 400 to 500 million METRIC TONS of destructive pests, including beetles, flies, ants, moths, aphids, grasshoppers, crickets and other anthropods per year. These numbers have been calculated in a study led by Martin Nyffeler of the University of Basel in Switzerland. The research, published in Springer’s journal The Science of Nature, highlights the important role birds play in keeping plant-eating insect populations under control.

But since the whole green bean ecohippies thing is more important than Mother Nature’s methods of keeping destructive pests under control, it really doesn’t matter to the ecohippie idiots that solar farms get built on migratory routes and destroy hundreds of thousands of both beneficial critters EVERY DAMNED YEAR, never mind bighorn sheep and desert tortoises.

Nah, none of that matters as long as those fools can have their junk cars, does it?

And never mind that none of the materials used to put that crap together, wind farms and solar farms – NONE OF THAT CRAP – is recyclable. It all ends up in landfills. more pollution for generations to come.

The Other Whitey

Lars, you can bullshit all you want, but it’s still lipstick on a pig. As usual, you pontificate on subjects about which you know fuck-all, preach to people with real-world skills, training, and experience, and make an ass of yourself.

You say “capacity will grow with demand.” Except Hondo already covered that in detail. Do you actually think your greenie fellow-travelers will stand for that increase in capacity? Or are you still pretending that solar panels are a panacea?

SFC D

“Our capacity will grown with demand.“

Electricity will just fall like manna from heaven. Take your meds.

The Dead Man

Digging the Freudian slip with ‘Grown’ there you Philippe Henriot wannabe.

Ret_25X

In today’s edition of Lars gets REKT, he asserts that electric capacity will grow with demand.

He must not have seen the rolling brownouts in Kaleefornya over the past month.

While it is fun to see him get REKT, it makes me fear our future if people this stupid get to be in charge…

Wait, someone is on TV…oh shit! It’s Nancy Pelosi. We’re dooooooooooooooooooooooooooomed!

SFC D

“We”, Commissar? You and the Borg collective? You and your Antifa buddies? Your green new deal zealots? Who is “we”?

Commissar

It is a bit creepy how programmed you have become to oppose anything related to green technologies.

You know you position is entirely political. If green technology and alternative energy technology was not politicized you and Ex would not be spending so much of your time churning out blog posts against it.

You would see it as yet another one of the ever changing technologies that we have seen humans adopt over time.

Technological advances are happening in literally every industry in the world.

Some of them have genuine issues as well.

But you don’t spend your time trying to argue they are some ridiculous, impossible, leftist fever dream,

And don’t blame AOC for this. You all have been against alternative energy since I joined this blog.

Stop being obedient useful fools for people who are invested in fossil fuel reserves.

Alternative energy will be adopted over time. At the minimum it adds to our capacity to generate power. And the cost per kWh of alternative energy has been falling year after year,

KoB

Still haven’t got that whole reading/comprehension thing down yet have you spapos? Pity.

The good news is that your inane blathering is as sure and certain as is death and taxes.

Mommy wake you up early with a fresh cream pie for breakfast?

Commissar

I read it.

You are programmed.

There is no rational reason for you all to be trying to argue against the viability of alternative energy and alternative fuel vehicles.

Let the market decide.

This conversation is fucking stupid,

Toxic Deplorable Racist SAH B Woodman

Then why are you here arguing?

Mason

heavily subsidized by tax dollars

There’s the rub. He says he wants the market to decide, but the only reason any of these green technologies has gotten as far as it has is because of massive taxpayer funded subsidies.

Same thing with E85. The only reason it exists is because the government demands it and pays for the corn.

If people didn’t get thousands in tax rebates, nobody would be able to afford these things.

HMCS(FMF) ret

Remember the JEF’s favorite company, Solyndra? The got $353M in “stimulus” money and a $25M “tax break” from the state of California… Uncle Sam was expected to collect at bankruptcy only $27M.

Buckeye Jim

If EV is such a great idea, why doesn’t the USPS use them?
If anyone could make this work economically, it would be USPS. Consider:
1. their vehicles carry light loads
2. they start/stop constantly
3. they could be recharged overnight at off-peak rates daily if necessary
4. they do not require high speeds.
5. they are a semi-governmental org-hence no logical responsibility required.

Yet, I have not seen any serious consideration by USPS of going to EV operations. Could it be that it would not work for them even given these advantages over “regular” people?

The Other Whitey

And that was true prior to 2017, and even the now-ex Exalted Glorious Leader made no attempt to convert USPS to EVs.

Kinda reminds me of that multi-million-dollar beachfront mansion Barry and Mooch bought, y’know, that they said will be underwater in ten years.

A Proud Infidel®™️

Yeah, I also find it interesting how the same schmucks that say how Ocean levels are going to rise also own properties on coastlines!

SFC D

There’s no market to decide when the program is an engineering failure.

Fyrfighter

“Mommy wake you up early with a fresh cream pie for breakfast?”

I was wondering the same KoB, awful early for Lars… My guess is he just got back from the riots errr, umm, “peaceful protests”, and is typing while eating his hot pocket..

KoB

Fyr, I try real hard not to waste keyboard ribbon ink on the sissy punk asinine piece of sh^t. I find it incredulous that he says the same thing over and over, cannot read for comprehension. It’s almost as if he is reading a completely different article from what everyone else is. After seeing some of the comments on those gofundme pages for the POSes that were taken out in WI, I kinda see it. They were making them cats out to be some kinda heroes, and basically, each and everyone was a thug and a criminal.

Go figure. Spapos seagull has been showing up earlier and earlier of late. I served with a coupla idiots just like him, in the Artillery and an MI (ARS) Unit. And yep, they were Majors. End of the month, George musta promised him a Soros Bucks bonus for loading down the site with his blather. I still think he is a masochistic attention whore that gets off on the abuse showered upon him here.

I’ll be the FIRST (hr to CW) to rejoice when he goes away and stays away.

The Dead Man

So you cheap knockoff off Nuon Chea. We’ve been against ‘green energy’ that is wholly inefficient, as toxic or moreso than the current methods and financially ruinous. You know this though.

You still haven’t defended how you’re going to handle the Chinese strip mining the necessary materials for solar panels, or how those same solar panels become an issue later. You also steadfastly refuse to acknowledge that most people here are happy with nuclear energy with the prevailing sentiment being, “Fix shit at a reasonable pace and make sure it works long term”

PS: We’re going to run into a water issue sooner than later and none of you concern trolls actually bring that up. Which is usually my barometer for people being sincere, or full of the Lars grade stinky brown stuff.

A Proud Infidel®™️

Major Moonbat, I once again call on you to tell us all about your time actually making it in the private sector, someplace that nearly everyone else here has done. With your cult propaganda and attitude, I sincerely don’t think that you’ll ever get a real job! All you ever do here is degrade everyone who dissents with your cult dogma while you regurgitate your propaganda!

Commissar

Finally, the political effort to undermine the alternative energy industry has left the US lagging behind in the technology and patents we would have had without the ridiculous Hyper politicization of the industry.

Other countries are adopting and developing new technologies without the political obstacles being thrown in the mix by a hive mind.

Any technology we fail to develop first we are going to have to pay licensing fees for those technologies moving forward.

China is investing massive funding into alternative energy development.

We already are paying licensing fees for flood technologies, fire technologies, and other technologies related to managing climate change.. partly because congress literally tries to undermine climate change research.

While we are developing technologies we should be dominating the world in this research.

Fyrfighter

Finally, the political effort to undermine the nuclear energy industry has left the US lagging behind in the technology and patents we would have had without the ridiculous Hyper politicization of the industry.

There, FIFY

A Proud Infidel®™️

During the fuel crises of the seventies, some were looking at the possibility of electrifying US Railroads until they realized the impact it would have on the grid as well as the extra expense of maintaining catenary wire over those distances.

Slow Joe

Hondo, excellent job.

I bet few people have thought of the consequences of going full EV.

Jeff LPH 3, 63-66 A Gang Snipe

I read everything and it comes down to a taxing situation. Hopefully I won’t get ataxed on the pun.

Sapper3307

“And we charge our cars with the electoral college after elections.”
AOC

Penguinman000

The company I work for has part of its tendrils in the solar industry for utilities around the world.

Our current and projected growth/development of technologies in the renewable sector cannot, and will not, replace fossil fuels. It simply takes too many resources to harness the same amount of energy as fossil fuels. The only technology we currently have that can replace fossil fuels is nuclear. Short of some sort of technological development on par with splitting the atom, renewables are an accessory.

And considering the more developed a civilization becomes the more its power consumption increases, continuing down the path of thinking renewables will replace fossil fuels is stupidity of the highest order.

Also, renewables are far from zero emissions/no carbon footprint. Arguments otherwise are either complete ignorance or lies.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/

But hey, what do I know? I only have education and real world experience that is directly applicable to the topic.

rgr769

Hondo, thanks for proving my supposition is correct. I was only considering EV’s as POV’s. I would still like to see an EV Freightliner or Mack tractor pulling a fully loaded trailer uphill. Also, can anyone imagine the size of the battery packs to make that happen or how long it would take to charge them. Plus, query for our resident Progs: What is the carbon footprint to mine the materials and manufacture those 283 million battery packs? Cuz that Chinese mining equipment won’t be running on unicorn farts.

OWB

Figured I’d skip the math portion of this post because IF I ever decide to get an electric vehicle (which is highly unlikely) I won’t have to worry about charging it. Just hook it up to the gas powered generator and let ‘er rip.

Ret_25X

I note that this discussion did not address the infrastructure to distribute the additional capacity necessary.

Frankly, the infrastructure is perhaps more problematic.

For those who do not own an EV, it is nearly useless to buy one without upgrading your home so that your electric service and your wiring are ready for a 240v charging station. Most homes do not even have a 240v capability in their wiring.

Then there are the transmission lines from sub-station to homes. If nearly every home suddenly required 400A rather than 200A service, most of that will need to be upgraded and replaced.

Then there are the new capacity requirements at the substations. There are ZERO transformers or high voltage components manufactured in the US at this time. Why? Watermelon Tranzies got that outlawed because transformers are full of PCBs.

Then there are the long haul transmission lines. Many areas of the US are served with long haul systems more than 30 years old and at minimum, more load always = new cables. Heavier cables mean new poles and structures to carry the cables.

We also have not even touched on the impact to consequence/emergency services. One hurricane or earthquake and 24 hours later…no cars, trucks, ambulances, fire trucks working in the impact zone.

What fossil fuel has over electric is the PORTABILITY of the precursor. Dump gas or diesel in a can, run your engine. But what does one do with no electric service?

And we haven’t even considered the effects of cobalt mining and what the hell to do with dead batteries.

EV is an economic and environmental nightmare, to speak nothing of the social and cultural impacts on the children literally dying to dig the cobalt and other rare earth materials for the batteries.

But, hey, what’s a couple hundred thousand dead Africans to an American leftist, eh?

A Proud Infidel®™️

Butbutbut Major Moonbat say we just brainwashed by big evil Trump machine and him know everything because he get smarter at UC Berzerkely…

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[…] week, I wrote an article regarding the difficulty of charging a hypothetical all-electric US vehicle fleet…. But as before, part of a comment to that article made by longtime TAH reader rgr769 caught my eye […]