More Perspective on the Wuhan Coronavirus
I saw an Internet meme about 3 weeks ago that caught my eye. It came out around Memorial Day, and observed that “more people had now died from the (Wuhan coronavirus) than were killed in combat in Vietnam and Korea combined”.
I’m pretty sure the timing was intentional.
I was reminded of this the other day when we had a series of comments to this article. One commenter apparently was bothered that we “weren’t taking the virus seriously enough” (or words to that effect).
So, longtime readers know what’s coming next. I decided to do a little research concerning the numbers.
Wikipedia – though suspect at times regarding the political “spin” present in some articles – generally gets most basic facts correct. And as it turns out, Wikipedia has an article regarding US military casualties in all wars/conflicts in US history, starting at the American Revolution.
Here’s the bottom line: total combat deaths, throughout US history, for the top 10 US wars is 658,669. For all conflicts combined, that total is around 666,441 – give or take a few.
We also have historical data concerning the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic. That historical data in turn indicates that the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed roughly 675,000 Americans, and is estimated to have killed between 17 and 100 million worldwide.
Yeah, you read that correctly. Nearly 8,500 more Americans died in one epidemic – specifically, the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic – than have died in combat in the entirety of US history.
The 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic occurred during a time when the US population was barely 1/3 of what it is today. And unlike the Wuhan coronavirus, the 1918 “Spanish flu” didn’t selectively target the old and/or unhealthy; rather, it appears to have predominantly killed young and healthy adults in their 20s and 30s. Thus the 1918 “Spanish flu’s” impact on US society, both short-term and long-term, was proportionally far greater than that of the current Wuhan coronavirus.
Yes, the meme’s author is technically correct; so was our recent commenter. But the apparent implication – that the current Wuhan coronavirus is some form of horrible “black swan event” that will irrevocably damage or destroy US society – is not.
If the intent was to say, “Pandemics can kill a ton of folks” or “The Wuhan coronavirus is bad news; be careful” – well, those statements are correct. They are also obvious as hell, so I rather doubt that was the intent.
But if the intent of either was to say, “This virus is unprecedented! It could kill US society!” . . . . well, that’s absolute BS. We’ve survived far worse in living memory (there are still a few folks still around who lived through the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic).
We’ll survive the Wuhan coronavirus as well. Unless, of course, we irrevocably damage our own society through stupidity.
Category: COVID-19, Historical
Yep, it’s serious. Yep, most of us are taking it seriously. Taking something seriously does not require that we become hysterical about it. (I also taking driving seriously, but have never considered being hysterical about that either.)
It has been expressed by people here and elsewhere that the disease itself will not destroy the country but the reaction to it can. Thanks, Hondo, for saying it again.
I love how a lot of these pols seem to think a vaccine will save us all and we can get back to normal when released.
Uh, not so fast. If the seasonal flu vaccine is any indicator, the effectiveness of that vaccine is slightly over 50 percent (40-65 percent, depending on year and strain.) We also have an average of roughly 50-60k deaths per year from the seasonal flu.
So is this a nasty strain? Yup. Is it going away entirely? Not likely. Is it, as a certain spouter of empirical evidence claims, going to be the leading cause of death through spring 2021? Not even fucking close.
The thing about the flu vaccine is less than 50% of adults get the vaccine. That death toll might be significantly lower if the vaccination coverage was higher among adults.
Vaccination coverage with ≥1 dose of flu vaccine was 62.6% among children 6 months through 17 years, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the 2017–18 flu season and 3.6 percentage points higher than coverage in the 2016–17 season. Flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years was 45.3%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points from the 2017–18 flu season and 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2016–17 season. Vaccination coverage varied by state, ranging from 46.0%–81.1% among children and from 33.9%–56.3% among adults, and of the ten states with the lowest coverage for children eight were also among the ten states with the lowest coverage for adults. — CDC.gov
IMO it likely wouldn’t matter that much if the immunization rate were 90+%, VOV. We’d still IMO see a large (tens of millions of cases with thousands of deaths due to complications) outbreak of seasonal flu each year.
The annual flu vaccine is based on “best guess” for what will be the prevalent strain(s) the following year. Sometimes those making the vaccine guess correctly; sometimes not.
If the folks guess correctly, the vaccine is effective against most – but not all – circulating strains. If they don’t, it’s much less effective; immunity against one strain is no guarantee of immunity against another strain.
Plus, the flu virus also apparently mutates rapidly. Those mutations from year to year also complicate making a vaccine for seasonal influenza – a mutation may render a vaccine against a previous (nonmutated) version of the strain much less effective against the mutated version.
From what I’ve read, a fraction of somewhere between 70 and 75% of the population must be immune to a disease to prevent an epidemic with a disease having R0 of about 2 (like the seasonal flu). Clearly we’re not at that level of immunization regarding the seasonal flu. And given the number of flu strains and the rapid mutation of same, even with nearly universal vaccination, I’d guess we’d still have tens of millions of cases annually.
Bottom line: the flu vaccine is generally at best only partly effective. At worst, it’s nearly ineffective. But it’s the best we can do today – and it does save lives.
The Flu Vaccine is a cocktail of what they think will be the most common strains of flu that year. Sometimes they guess wrong, sometimes you’re just unlucky and catch another strain, sometimes you happened to already have it and were asymptomatic when you got the shot.
As for Herd Immunity iirc the various textbooks I had to stuff through suggested 75%-80% Which significantly reduces the chance of it finding viable hosts to continue spreading and mutating through.
Regarding Xinnie the Flu here though, it’s already mutating to be even less lethal than it already was. It’ll probably join the other corona viruses already present in the mishmash of viruses making up the common cold here soon.
Minor clarification, because I might have been a bit unclear originally. When I say “best guess of what will be the prevalent strains the following year“, I’m referring to the decisions made before vaccine production starts. Those decisions are made months before the next year’s flu season begins – generally, during the current flu season. That’s necessary because (1) producing the vaccine literally takes months, and (2) we simply can’t produce a vaccine that’s effective against every strain, so we have to pick and choose.
As you and I both note: sometimes the guess is good, and the vaccine is effective against the predominant strains circulating that year; sometimes the guess is poor, and the vaccine isn’t too good. And there are always those who are “wrong place, wrong time” and catch an uncommon strain.
I think Sparky makes some good points, but you have to also remember that whether you get the flu vaxx or not, you can still pick up some nasty rhinovirus – one that has nothing to do with the flu – just from driving someone home, and it might not be a flu bug but can act like one.
The one thing I’ve noticed is that the daily mortality numbers are slowly dropping, even though the new cases reported are the same as or slightly higher than the day before. There is some speculation that the virus is weakening, but that is not yet proven.
The most recent news is that Brazil’s “new cases” rate is rising.
One other thing I noticed after posting my original comment, VOV.
If NHSparky’s figures above are accurate regarding the effectiveness of the current seasonal flu vaccines, then the current flu vaccines would not prevent a seasonal epidemic even if we had 100% immunization in the US.
A fraction of 70-80% population immunity is needed to prevent an epidemic with a disease having an R0 of about 2 (like the seasonal flu). In the best years, per NHSparky’s numbers the vaccine is about 65% effective. In poor years, that drops to 40%.
That means we’d never achieve the required population immunity level to prevent an epidemic (70-80%), even in a good flu vaccine year.
“…damage our own society through stupidity.”
That may be the intent of the master plan of our enemies, foreign and domestic. The feeding frenzy of stupidity, worrying about an agenda pushed upon us thru yellow journalism. Yeah it’s a nasty bug, yeah it kills folks, but yeah we all gonna die one day. We have shut down the entire economy for a bug that has a better than 99% survival rate. And have swallowed the narrative hook, line, and sinker. Keep up the rioting, you are safe doing that, but do not go to Church or attend a Trump Rally, you’d be DOOOOOOOOOOOOMMED!
In addition to the posted planned stops of my sojourn, I had hoped to meet some of the basket full of miscreanted deplorable d’weeds/weedettes; to break bread, and lift a prost to the ones that missed out on the trip/party of a lifetime. Damn a buncha Chinese Communist Bugs.
I’d of woke up here this morning:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackhawk,_South_Dakota
Don’t forget to make the trip to Wall Drug.
A stop there was scheduled for the trip back NHSparky. One of the few legs of the ride that would be in the same semi direction of previous trips. Got a drop dead gorgeous Leather Fringe Jacket, vest, and hat from there. Nice number of Buffalo and Native American T Shirts too.
If you’ve been following my comments over the last 2 weeks, you’d a had a nice virtual vacation. Was planning on being based in and around Black Hawk/Rapid City/Keystone/Black Hills for at least a week. Again, this ride would have been bypassing any major city and never getting on an Interstate Hwy. DAMNIT!!!!!!!!!!!
I hear ya. I lived (briefly) in Gillette. Seems in that part of the country travel between points that avoid the Interstates is difficult without adding a serious chunk of time to the trip.
No itching hurry at all. SD Hwy 40 and parts of US 14/16 thru the Badlands to Wall. Maybe Alaska Bob would be too busy in Kelly’s Canyon to bother me.
Two hundred miles a day woulda been more than I wanted to do. Made that run from BH to Central GA one time,(out of 6 trips) never left the interstate but for fuel and a piss stop. 1900 miles in 26 hours. Wanted to see the Countryside this time. DAMNIT!!!!!
There are some nice shops in Wall, as well. Bought a Black Hills gold bracelet for the missus there on my Sturgis MC trip in 2009.
^word^ rgr769. If you cherry pick the trade goods there you can find some good stuff. Brother J’s MiL worked for Black Hills Gold Mine/Mftg for a good long while. She gifted me with one of only 6 prototype BHG Eagle on onyx stone rings that she had designed way back yonder. A prized possession, only 4 originals still left. Copies can be seen at different shops now.
Was in the area during the ’96 Rally, Be Ware of Piggy Park. The timing of this year’s trip was done purposely to avoid being anywhere near during the Rally Time Frame.
I was lucky the year I went. It was in the middle of the Great 0bama Recession. And Sturgis Rally attendance was about half what it normally is.
I think the issue I see is that so many people seem to be unaware that it is entirely possible to recognize this disease is rather serious, but one can still have legitimate concerns regarding both Government over reach and the economic impact while aware of the deadly nature of this particular Novel Coronavirus.
It killed my father in law, and I loved that guy a great deal…after my own dad he was one of the nicest people I’ve ever met. Welcomed me from day one into his home and into his family. Typical of that generation of people.
That said I know several small business owners who have been irreparably harmed by these edicts from on high closing them down under threat of imprisonment during the pandemic. All without due process, all without fair market compensation.
Who fixes that? Nice to see Harvard and Yale get millions that they didn’t need (and eventually returned under pressure) while those small businesses employing under 25 people were told their PPP options were approved but there was no money left in the tank for them….
I don’t want to see anyone else die from this disease, but I also don’t want local small businesses ruined across the nation. Small businesses employ a huge percentage of the American workforce.
The death toll notwithstanding the economic toll may prove worse thanks to our Government once again getting it wrong with respect to who was receiving bailout monies.
One comment, VOV.
You say “our Government” in your last para. Most of the anti-business asinitity I’ve seen (e.g., compulsory business closures) hasn’t been the result of any Federal government action. All of that has been state and local.
So if you’ve got a problem with any of that, your beef is with the fools in
SpringfieldBoston, not the tools DC.Unless, of course, we see a change of Administration in DC. Then “Katie bar the door” on collective anti-business idiocy nationwide.
Hondo, I agree with your anti-business point of clarification. BTW Boston is the capital of Masshole land. It’s where what is referred to as the “Boston Gestapo” proudly rules over its fiefdom known as Taxachusetts.
Thanks for the correction. For some reason I was thinking that Springfield was the state capital of both Massachusetts and Missouri. In reality, it’s the capital of neither.
Just Illinois if IRC, has a capital named Springfield.
This is my favorite “Springfield!”
Except the PPP program was a federal program for paycheck protection passed as bipartisan legislation.
That it ran out of money long before the billionaire corporation bailouts is fairly anti-business in my personal opinion at the Federal level because this was in fact a federal program.
As part of our manufacturing process we use a variety of chemicals, I’m sadly well aware of the anti-business climate here at the state level. The state issued closure edicts were anti-business but they followed a federal recommendation and the feds attempted to provide some bailout protection which as usual protected the top tier businesses long before the middle and bottom tier businesses. A topic for another essay perhaps.
We are an essential so we were open and kept everyone on payroll throughout the pandemic closure period. Others I know, not so much. The federal PPP plan was designed to cover small business paychecks but was underfunded from day one. That’s on the federal government’s bipartisan relief bill.
You’re comparing apples and oranges, VOV.
PPP isn’t an example of “anti-business idiocy”, VOV. Rather, it’s an example of a program to mitigate the effects of anti-business decisions made due to the Wuhan coronavirus at all levels of government.
Whether the program was actually under-funded or its initial funding was exhausted by overuse due to state/local anti-business idiocy (“We can’t treat people like adults – we must save them from themselves! We must order everything closed! Free commerce cannot be permitted!”) is an open question. My guess would be the latter, but I could well be wrong.
FWIW: per the SBA website, the PPP resumed accepting applications for the program on 27 April of this year. As of 22 June, the program had approved in excess of $515 billion in PPP loans.
The Federal large corporate plans were fully funded from the start, also on the Federal level once again small business the engine of employment in America was the red-headed stepchild.
It doesn’t matter that PPP is now fully funded as some of those businesses didn’t last because their revenue was cut off instantly and once the initial PPP was out of money those small businesses didn’t stop having accrued debt. The entire point of PPP was to keep employees on payroll. One reality of many small businesses is they can’t meet payroll for six weeks without some revenue coming in. We can meet payroll for almost a year without any income, but the company’s been around for almost 40 and this will be the first year we don’t show a positive growth rate, we still have capital to add a couple of new pieces of equipment totaling over 5 million dollars but we are not representative of a great many small companies. We still might be facing layoffs for the first time in four decades…
I place that blame on the Feds as they promised a support plan that wasn’t fully funded from day one. I also blame the state governors for ruling by edict. There is probably enough blame to go around for both local and federal governments…
For those losing their businesses while the Feds dilly dallied on additional funding I’m not sure the distinction matters much.
I understand your response that many states are more anti-business (especially manufacturing like ours) far more so than at the federal level.
This pandemic response has been a hodgepodge of responses federal and state though and as usual small business which is 99% of all US firms pays the price…the government knows that small business is 99% of all firms in the nation…that should have been the largest funding block from day one.
This link provides an as-best-as-possible one-page accounting of all the deaths and casualties in America’s wars and includes the number of soldiers involved. The second page has some interesting facts. Not sure how often the VA updates the totals as the GWOT is open ended. However there is a link to see the latest GWOT data.
https://www.va.gov/opa/publications/factsheets/fs_americas_wars.pdf
The two sources (the VA and Wikipedia) are quite close. Wikipedia gives a total of 5,669 combat deaths for the GWOT (listed as Iraq and Afghanistan). Add that to VA’s overall total (which doesn’t include the GWOT) and you’re very close to the combat death total Wikipedia lists for all wars.
Since the CV-19 virus is having a down effect on business in general, I checked to see how many Renaissance Faires are closed this year, and nationwide, the number is 46 closed until next year.
This is like watching the Plague take down village after village, and nothing you can do but wait until next Faire season.
Yessum. Re-Enactments of all kinds postponed or cancelled. Festivals, Arts and Craft Fairs, Concerts, Museums, Rodeos. Most of the places I had planned on visiting on my trip were shut down completely or extremely limited vist-ability. Ft Rob rents the former Soldier’s Quarters by the day or week, payable in advance, reservations usually at least a year in advance. My reservations for this trip were confirmed by CC last June the 16th. A lot of planning and logistics work went into the last year getting this set up. Maybe this will help explain my frustration and pity party. Ft Rob will only be allowing very limited visitors/guests starting after the FIRST of July. The Officer’s Quarters buildings that we had reserved will not be made available due to the number of people they can hold.
Even if we could have found another week that had a cancellation by the reserver, there was no way to re-arrange the schedules of 70+ people on short notice (from 11 different states). Three (3) YEARS of planning and looking forward to…SHOT TO HELL!!! DAAAAAAAAAAMMN ITTTTTTT!!!!!!!
You are missing “The Corona Bonanza” for LDCs like Pakistan.The Opportunity is being missed out. Bonanza 1 There will a temporary shock to the government fiscal revenues as Imports will crash,CIF rates of imports will also crash, domestic production has stopped (as tax on MRP less deductions is paid at the time of production and not sale),domestic MRP rates will also crash.That is Y the state has not passed the benefits of lower crude and palm rates to the people.dindooohindoo The Bonus is in non-salary expenditures of the state,which are on ARC (Annual Rate contracts) or other RC.With crash in commodities and surplus capacities – Pakistan can easily make and re-negotiate its procurements. Large nations like Hindoosthan,will face disaster,as they will face supply risks,per se.W.r.t the purchases by the Pakistani state,the state can declare Force Majeure,especially on International contracts. There is no immorality in this,as the supply and value chain of the suppliers to the state – will,in any case,declare Force Majeure – which will ensure that the suppliers will default on the government contracts.The suppliers will make supplies at ARCs,only to the extent of the existing stocks,as at March 15th,2020.They cannot be allowed to supply,from new purchases at the old ARC rates. Global suppliers will be glad to dump their stocks – with depots in Pakistan – for sale to the Pakistani State. This could easily reduce the costs by 30-50%, on a one time and recurring basis.Once this Cost is saved,in phases,the benefit of oil price crash on fuels and edible oils and also power tarriffs and fertilisers,can be passed on to the public.That will be pure jannat. Bonanza 2 The Only Solution to the supply chain risk in USA/EU (w.r.t their supply chains in PRC) lies in massive robotics and AI – which will make humans obsolete in manufacturing and also,in part,in IT.The question is,what to do with the humans.That is Y the virus is sought – Simple ! For Pakistan – the crash in Raw Materials and cost of capital, availability of capital and crash in logistics costs will make manufacturing and exports viable.That makes existing… Read more »