More fun than now?
As thebesig reported,, we theoretically have a two-week cease-fire with the Iranians. I say theoretically because from what I read, the terms are not fully agreed, and it seems we either negotiated a cease-fire without the Israelis or they failed to participate as we thought they should, so their attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon have the Iranians threatening to shut down the Straits of Hormuz again.
Such agreements should be looked at with a jaundiced eye, as both the US and Iran have a bad history of ignoring agreements. (Think we’re pure as the new driven snow? Ask some of the people we promised to stand by forever, like the Afghans and Vietnamese.) Realpolitik runs everyone’s actions in the real world. And there seem to be some gray areas where Iran says one thing and we say another. Mr. Trump supposedly said the Straits are fully open – but the Iranians have released statements mentioning things like “passage with prior arrangement with the Revolutionary Guard” or that a dozen ships a day could pass, a opposed to Mr. Trump’s “fully open” statement.
But hey, there is always the other side of Saudi Arabia. The east side, where Dubai is and which is which is bottlenecked by the Straits, is not the only way to get oil out. The Red Sea, on the west side of SA, may not have the shipping port capacity of the east side, but at least it’s open, right? Maybe not as much as we would like – because of the country to the Saudi’s south – Yemen.
Anyone here remember December?
As a result of today’s attacks and the near-miss yesterday on the Maersk Gibraltar, the Danish Maersk shipping company told us today that it is instructing all its ships scheduled to pass through the Bab al-Mandab to “pause their journey until further notice.”
“We are deeply concerned about the highly escalated security situation in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the company said in a statement to The War Zone. “The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the area are alarming and pose a significant threat to the safety and security of seafarers.” TWZ
Well, the Houthis in Yemen are getting a little froggy again.
Europe’s Red Sea naval task force tells us it is prepared for the resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the region. The Iranian proxy group has already launched several ballistic missile strikes against Israel since joining the ongoing war in the Middle East over the weekend. Now there is growing concern that the Houthis could effectively shut down the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti.
A new Houthi offensive would be a major cudgel for Iran, because it would open a new front in the war and draw in military resources at a time when they are heavily involved in Epic Fury. A potential activation of the Houthis is arguably Tehran’s biggest military card left to play, but just how much control Tehran retains over the Houthis is unclear. TWZ II
This is all still very much up in the air. Or, to quote the famous military philosopher “Who knows what those squirrelly little bastards will do?”
Category: Iran
I mentioned all that about Yemen the other day. Taking the Bab el-Mandeb out is a huge bottleneck because while they normally ship 3 MBD out of there the pipeline restricts it to about 6.5 MBD as opposed to 14 MBD from the North. So the normal is total about 17.5 MBD, from the area with 3 from South. While is 6.5 is a lot more than 3 it is no where near 17.5.
Venezuela has essentially doubled output since January from slightly less than 1MBD to about 2 MBD But the worldwide shortage is 10 MBD.
Tankers from the BAB can go around Yemen by going through the Suez and the sailing all the way around the horn of Africa. Jolly fun that is.
In any case the Houthis said that their attacks were independent of the War in Iran, no reason to think they would be covered by Iran’s cease fire, they opened that can of whoop ass all by themselves.
For a real giggle you should check out their 10 point peace plan. It includes Iran gaining full control of the SoH (at least half of which belong to Oman) and the US paying reparations for damages done. Don’t know for sure but those might be non-starters.
Bah! Turn the whole area into a glass parking lot. Problem solved
Reading the “agreement that Trump posted on social media did not fill me with a warm fuzzy feeling. I read it as the iranians maintain full control of the straits. Passage only by permission ahead of time. There was nothing about defunding their proxies or deleting all support for them.
To me this was a cease fire but only to a prelude to a resumption of the conflict. If that is the idea of a win here I think it falls way short. IMO they should have gone forward with the strikes because the iranians are not conceding a damn thing. Hell I didn’t even see one of the big goals which was the elimination of their nuke aspirations. Even if they do not get a nuke, they have more than enough refined uranium to create dirty bombs to provide for their proxies.
Let’s stop wasting our time and annihilate the remaining Islamic Regime. Anything standing between now and that result is simply Kabuki theater.
The term “closing the straights” is a misnomer. There is no gates or door across the waterway. Its a threat by I-ran damage ships transiting the straights and the insurance underwriters balking at the prospect of having to pay a claim. I’ve watched Sal Mercogliano’s What’s up with Shipping YT channel to get the full low down. If there is maybe a 1 in 100 chance of be hit, a military ship would like those odds any day. However, insurance companies like Lloyds like it better when the odds are zero for commercial ships. I get the payout for loss/damage to a ship, the crew, and cargo would hurt their bottom line. They aren’t interested in the politics because I know working a big insurance company like MetLife for years that they HATE more than anything is to payout on a policy.
This ceasefire/end of hostilities will take a couple of iterations to get done because of the volatility and number of the parties involved. You never tip over Coke machine on the first try. You have to rock it back-and-forth a few times before it finally falls over. The fact that one was agreed to is the first step. Lets let the politicians earn their salaries and get this deal done.