Some Updates For You
Social distancing
You may enjoy reading this study by a bunch of eggheads. They want us all to stay six feet apart because COVID!!!! is going to disrupt everything, whether or not there is an antidote developed (and several seem promising) and a vaccine (which is under development now). https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full
That this article was published after the CV19 bug hit, and all those ideas were already in place, is ironic, but let’s let that go.
I read the “Abstract” section first and found that it ignored all the work being done now to bitch-slap the COVID-19 virus into submission. They ignore the simple fact that the flu bug going around every fall is not the same as the prior autumn’s flu bug, and that’s the reason we have to get yearly flu shots!!!!! Perhaps our own SARCs and HMs may have some special things to say about this, too.
What is even more interesting is the effort that went into finding the source of the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed over a million people during its progression through the human population. This involved getting tissue samples from people who died back then, some of whom were buried in permafrost and were perfectly preserved. The Spanish flu was a primitive H1N1 flu virus that was able to shift antigens and invade other hosts such as hogs and the human population. When the swine flu came up in 2005, and subsequent to that, bird flu struck in 2009, those tissue samples led right back to the more primitive H1N1 bug.
This article from CDC relates the effort to find the source of the 1918 “Spanish” flu, which turned out to be a rather primitive flu that could shift to invade and infect any host. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
The irony is in this paragraph, toward the end of that article: If a severe pandemic, such as occurred in 1918 happened today, it would still likely overwhelm health care infrastructure, both in the United States and across the world. Hospitals and doctors’ offices would struggle to meet demand from the number of patients requiring care. Such an event would require significant increases in the manufacture, distribution and supply of medications, products and life-saving medical equipment, such as mechanical ventilators. Businesses and schools would struggle to function, and even basic services like trash pickup and waste removal could be impacted. – article
“Still likely overwhelm the health care system…” You kind of have to ask, why, when both swine flu and avian flu hit us, we weren’t prepared then and why we weren’t prepared for the current invasion of an aggressive microscopic bug? Are we just going to slouch along, assuming that we’re invulnerable and nothing will plague us, just because we’re us?
Well, somewhere out in the wild there is a pocket of smallpox or something similar, just waiting to be picked up by some explorer and brought back to a population that has never been exposed to it or vaccinated for it, ever. The CDC, in answer to an e-mail I sent them about it several years ago (because I had the vaxx twice, once in infancy and once again in boot camp, and they both took), responded with “both of them fade after XX years”. In plain English, nothing lasts forever, including immunity. I didn’t ask CDC about the polio vaxx, but we got that at school as soon as the Salk vaccine was available, once as an injection and again (twice) with the sugar cube version.
Nothing lasts forever.
Category: "Your Tax Dollars At Work", COVID-19
Ex
If it makes you feel any better we had to get small pox vaccines before deploying after 9/11. I got mine right after Christmas before deploying into theater.
I was a meber of the generation that had previously received them but for some of our folks it was a first time thing.
Scary, isn’t it?
People need to remember that the make up of the yearly flu vaccine is a crap shoot based on a SWAG of what strain of influenza is circulating. The typical flu vaccine is made up of 2 strains of Influenza A and 1 strain of Influnza B. Sometimes they guess the mix correctly, sometimes not. It’s all based on medical surveillance and intel from around the world to see if any particular sub strain predominates.
I suspect the same thing will happen when a COVID 19 vaccine is developed. I don’t think it will be a 1 shot immunity. Rather they (CDC) will have to rely on the intel theyvrecieve on which sub strain will predominate in a given year.
Meanwhile, the simple precautions we learned in grade school are the best preventive measure. Cover your cough/sneeze. Wash your hands frequently. Don’t touch your face. Don’t go to work or school if your sick, etc.
If we religously practice those things we can reduce the spread of many illnesses.
We used to get tested for TB every year in grade school, until it was “conquered”. Now the TB lodgings are gone, because tuberculosis has been “conquered”.
You’re right: the simplest approach, which is the most obvious, is always the best method.
I remember that too. I also got the smallpox vaccine as a child. My brother and I were among the first kids to get the Sabin polio vaccine. I’ve lived through being a civilian and military Doc when AIDS and Hep B were the newest death sentences. I’ve worked on SARS, MERS, and H1N1 patients. At no time did I ever see the panic and running around in circles that I’ve seen in the past 5 months.
Why weren’t we prepared, knowing it would happen some day? It’s always “some day” in the future. When budgets are tight and politicians are always looking towards the next election, spending money on preparedness instead of on something flashy doesn’t happen.
It is/was always a matter of time before the next major pandemic. There will be another one after this. Maybe we’ll be better prepared, but all medical supplies and equipment have a shelf life. Nobody wants to be known as the guy that bought 10 million N95 masks and then five years later had to throw them all out unused and buy another 10 million.
Some local genius got my state’s Treasurer to cough up roughly $13 million to buy those masks, and guess where they were made? That’s right: China! And the shipment is NOW testing as partially OK and partially unusable.
Maybe it’s time to stop patronizing China and go to Taiwan instead.
Amen PH2!
“Maybe it’s time to stop patronizing China and go to Taiwan instead.”
Or bring manufacturing back home?
Apparently a standard N95 mask costs the government $0.63, with more advanced ones costing up to $1.50 each. For 10M masks, that’s $6.3M – $15.0M. They don’t really expire, though the rubber bands can become brittle and that does impact their protective capability, but still, let’s say we’re going to buy them every 5 years.
That’s $1.26M – $3M a year. I’m pretty sure we could find that in the federal budget. Hell, at the high end, that’s one penny per person per year. I’m okay with that given the protection it gives our first responders.
Yes, but when you consider that the stuff received in the purchase I referred to included masks that were useless, is it really worth it to go on with a vendor who does things like that?
Normally, if you buy a product from someone and it’s flawed, you take or send it back, return it – whatever – and get your money back or a replacement. So,hHow do we get OUR money back, LC?
Another major problem was that the national stockpile of something like 100 million masks that used to exist was exhausted (or at least seriously depleted) during the swine flu epidemic, and NEVER restocked. since that happened in 2009, anyone want to remind me who the president was at that time???
Fyr, the seagull will be back shortly with the empirical data showing that, even tho oblowme was in the WH at that point in time, it is Trump’s fault that the masks were not replaced.
Well, but, guys… why would we ever need them again? It wasn’t like it was a polio epidemic or something, was it?
Fair enough. Obama should have restocked and didn’t.
Who’s been president since 2017? Why didn’t the Trump admin restock?
I was replying in general to Mason’s sentiment; getting useless stuff is obviously a problem.
Here’s another fun one – a bankrupt company offering ‘tactical training’ got $55M from the government for masks that they don’t make. That’s a puzzler, too. Even if they can ‘use their connections’, as they say, they’re still coming from some other source, and it’s not a net gain of masks!
https://www.businessinsider.com/fema-paid-bankrupt-company-no-employees-55-million-n95-masks-2020-4
Certainly sounds unusual, at least the bankrupt part. One would hope that all such purchases / contracts would be reviewed after the fact, and any issues be properly addressed.
That being said (and it may be different for the Feds), but as the EMS manager here, I buy almost nothing from manufacturers, almost all of it comes through third party companies.
the fun part is that there are likely millions of these masks in warehouses somewhere, but no one knows it because the only person left who knows how the asset management system works is now retired.
If industry managed IT the way the government agencies do, the CIO would be fired very quickly.
A lot of this is a consequence of the nature of government, not of what any single executive in the WH did or did not do.
It isn’t likely that the president is down at Fort Gillem conducting commander’s inventories of the FEMA warehouses there–and if the president were doing that we would rightly wonder WTF…
Government is not the answer to problems. It is usually the source.
All I can think of after reading this is the way the Simian Flu (which is pretty much an airborne Ebola and it makes the virus much scarier) was able to spread in the 2011 Rise of the Planet of the Apes or the MEV-1 virus in Contagion. And the former was thanks to a careless airline pilot while the latter was thanks to a butcher who didn’t wash his hands. I have never watched the 2011 Rise of the Planet of the Apes in full but I have watched the mid credits scene on YouTube where it shows how the pandemic starts and that’s when it really struck me that airplanes really are massive Petri dishes.
And the scene genuinely scares me because it also serves as a reminder that the world is a lot more connected now than it once was thanks to air travel and if a new more resilient strain of the Bubonic Plague where to emerge, there is a good possibility that it would be able to spread a whole lot farther at a much faster rate. I guess coming to Japan on a crowded plane has also caused
“…that’s when it really struck me that airplanes really are massive Petri dishes.”
Yes, they are. They worst (and last) trip I ever took on a commercial airline was in the fall of 2000, cross-country to LA and back, and I contracted the worst URI I have ever had in my life.
Took me two weeks to get rid of it, and I decided that commercial airlines were far worse than buses and trains for travel. Haven’t been on a commercial flight since then, and if I do get on an airplane again, it will be a small plane rather than a big, overpriced jet.
Made mention the other day that I started re-reading Clancy’s Executive Orders, just for gits and shiggles. Substitute China for Iran as the creator of the virus in that book and here we are. I’m not surprised that the Communists are still trying to kill me. They’ve been doing it all my life, but haven’t succeeded yet. If Bill Gates has anything at all to do with a vaccine for this Chinesecommunist Originated Virus Infesting Disease of 2019 (COVID19) I believe I’ll pass. Don’t think I’m quite ready to have a nano sized Hunger Games Tracker injected into me. I’ll take the pneumonia shot and gamble on the rest.
I’ve been thinking about Executive Orders ever since this fiasco started. Think I’ll also re-read.
This entire mess is a gross overreaction. The main casualty is the Constitution and our Liberty. The primary purpose of our government is to secure that Liberty to ourselves and our posterity.
Overall deaths this year are down from previous years. Our “betters” lied to us, again.
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/overall-u-s-death-rate-is-at-a-multi-year-low/
And around Casa OWB things are deteriorating. Just had some sausage gravy over bagels – and thought it was great! Well, it was pretty good. The gravy was good enough that it likely would have made shoe leather appetizing. And an everything bagel is good with nearly anything. The combination turned out better than it sounds.
It is obviously time to let OWB out of time out! When trimming trees and shrubbery become major social events (doesn’t everyone talk to the vegetation while they prune same??), it is past time to find real people with whom to interact.
Yeah, this was fun for a while.
Oh. Just asked the cat, “Are we there yet?”
I did ask her. She gave that “that” look.
Here’s another update for y’all: The sun came up right on schedule this morning. Birds are singing. Plants are growing. Seeds are sprouting.
A car went by earlier. Oh, yes, one of those essential hospital workers going in to work amid the chaos at the hospital. Not from an overload of patients, but from the anticipation of just when the hospital will close it’s doors permanently. They can only continue to function so long without patients and income. Too bad. It’s a very nice hospital.
Otherwise, it’s looking weird out there. The kids of a friend tried to bring in a clothes dryer to replace one broken in another relative’s house. (It had seemed simpler to them to just bring it to granny than for granny to try to figure out how to get one at a store.) They were stopped at the state line – not allowed to transport the dryer across the state line. Strange.
Taking a field trip in a bit. Am hoping to acquire a few things which may not be considered essential but would make life a bit easier – which at this time seems pretty essential.
“not allowed to transport a dryer across the state line…”??? Huh? What?
Were they given a reason, or just told to take it back where it came from?
Does this mean that interstate vehicular traffic is going to be banned until this is over? I’m trying to figure this out, because the nearest Renaissance Faire is just across the state line and has plans to open as usual in mid-July. Their revenues are pretty well split between my state and the other one, never mind the taxes the Faire owners have to pay.
This should be interesting.
They were coming in from a county with a very high infection rate to one that had no cases at that time, with license plates indicating their originating county. There really aren’t troops stationed at the state line checking ID’s. I suspect that they tried to pull into a rest area (which was closed) and that’s where they were encouraged not to try to continue on their journey. These were good kids who just hadn’t completely thought things through.
“What is even more interesting is the effort that went into finding the source of the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed over a million people during its progression through the human population.”
The death toll of the 1917-18 Spanish Flu epidemic was 50-60 million people, but it is estimated that it was actually closer to 75-100 million people.
I dont give a fuck what kind of ignorant bullshit you choose to spout here, Ex.
Most of this nonsense is virtue signaling and seeking tribal approval.
But in the real world you need to listen to the experts. Social distance, wear a mask, avoid unnecessary contact, avoid unnecessary community excursions.
You are a member of a high risk group, Ex. And even if you are lucky and it does not take your life, there is a better than average chance you will have severe symptoms.
which experts are you screeeeeing about now?
Those who favor distancing or those who do not (see several studies published last week”.
Those who discount masks or those who advocate?
Those who are saying that most of the population is already exposed or those who don’t?
Cherry pick your side and deal with the consequences, but the facts are clear here–there is no single “expert” opinion here.
The truth is that YOUR experts believe that closing the economy, 22 million unemployed, and snitching are the way to go. Others have a different expert opinion. You are willing to accept the suicide rate, but not the COVID death rate and are unwilling to accept that other opinions can exist.
Very tolerant of you, eh Kamerade?
There are no experts that don’t favor distancing.
Distancing reduces spread. The only debate is how far people need to distance.
No experts are saying most of the population is already exposed.
No experts are discounting masks. The only discussion is whether it is a good use of masks, which are often in short supply, to encourage people to wear them and potentially increase the shortages healthcare workers face.
There is also a debate about the effectiveness of the masks. Masks are better at protecting others from you, than you from others. Though they do reduce your risk and also decrease the likelihood you will touch your mouth and nose.
Masks slow the spread. Even homemade masks do.
Wear them.
There is not debate about that. That debate ended already and it was based on asinine pedantic arguments about whether home made masks “protect” someone or merely reduce their risk and the extent they do.
Snitching? What?
How UNFORTUNATE for you, you mother-fucking SONOFABEEYATCH, that I am considerably healthier than you are and more than likely to outlive you, Taylor.
High risk group? That would be you and your MARXIST idiot friends.
You are so stupid you don’t even know you’re alive.
You should be careful what you wish for. It might just happen TO YOU, you useless asshole.
This post makes absolutely no sense. You make no cogent points, and you wander back and forth between acknowledging Covid is a problem
and pretending it’s not.
Pick a side, make a stand. I find it disappointing how many people who aren’t actually responsible for making life and death decisions seem so cavalier with the lives of others.
I hope the protesters or someone is keeping data on how many of them come down with the virus.
Well. Things have gone a bit TOO far now.
Was waiting on a very important call (no, it doesn’t matter from whom – they are ALL important these days) when one of my battery of docs called to reschedule the call we had scheduled for this afternoon because they needed a urine specimen for this round of talks. Is that all? I shared that generating something like that shouldn’t be all that difficult. So they scheduled me to come in to make a deposit, and as long as I am there I might as well see the doc. They reassured me that no other patients would be in the building the entire day, that everything would be freshly sanitized, AND that I was welcome to wear a mask and gloves. They sounded about as excited to have an actual, live patient to see as I was at the prospect of going in to experience the phenomena. No, that wasn’t sarc. For reals, we all agreed that we were looking forward to it.
Sad, but true. Evidently the insanity that has overtaken the world is more contagious than the bug we are all hiding from.