NATO wants “show of force” in reaction to events in Ukraine
Yeah, and maybe we can call Wesley Clarke back to lead them. What could possibly go wrong? From Stars & Stripes;
At a conference in Brussels Sunday, NATO’s supreme allied commander, U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, said the alliance must consider the positioning and readiness of its forces because of concerns that Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s eastern border could pose a threat to the separatist Trans-Dniester region of Moldova, which borders Ukraine.
“The force that is at the Ukrainian border now, to the east, is very, very sizable and very, very ready,” Breedlove said at a forum of the German Marshall Fund.
“There is absolutely sufficient force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Trans-Dniester if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome,” Breedlove said, according to the BBC. “Russia is acting much more like an adversary than a partner.”
So let’s put a counter-force in their face, hoping, as NATO does with regularity, that nothing bad happens when we put an unprepared, ill-trained force in the way of “an adversary” to act as a speedbump or tripwire. What could possibly happen? I’m sure Putin will wait while we build up our forces in Europe from the States like Hussein did in 1990. Just because we don’t learn lessons from our mistakes, that doesn’t mean that our adversaries don’t.
Category: Foreign Policy
I agree, the deployment of an ill-prepared force (likely with a very restrictive ROE) would probably do more to embolden Vlad, and lead to the very scenario we wished to avoid. This show of force (if it does in fact happen) will lack any real teeth just like the sanctions. Putin is already threatening to shut off the oil and gas flow going to Europe, which will in turn bend the EU into meeting his demands of not enforcing those sanctions. The only way those sanctions ever had a chance was if we gave Keystone the green light, boost production of oil and natural gas and sell it abroad, with an emphasis placed on Europe to make up whatever they’d lose from Vlad turning off the flow going through Ukraine. This also would’ve brought oil prices down, which would’ve hit Vlad where it hurts the most, since the oil sector is a major part of Russia’s economy. But that was never going to happen. This is exactly why I’ve always been leery about any talk of sanctions whether it’s Iraq, Iran, Russia etc. They only work if the people who wrote them have the resolve to back-up sanction enforcement with the potential use of force. Not saying one has to always go to using the “big stick,” but the enemy should always know (and RESPECT) that you are strong in your convictions and that you mean what you say, and say what you mean. That isn’t the case right now. This proposed “show of force” is all smoke and mirrors-and Vlad knows it. The proposal to cut military aid to Eastern European countries like Ukraine certainly reinforces that perception. Sadly, the result will likely lead to Vlad making additional grabs in sovereign nations located in the former Eastern Bloc. But this is now much bigger than Ukraine and Russia, because other enemies like Iran and China have been watching this closely, and are likely adjusting their policies and OP-Tempo accordingly… Info on oil/natural gas being shut-off to the EU: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-crisis-moscow-threatens-to-cut-gas-supplies-to-europe-in-retaliation-for-sanctions-9210275.html Excerpt: “The prospect of a European energy crisis loomed last… Read more »
We should have seen this coming after Putin invaded Georgia. We should have seen it after he had created his current position of Dictator in all but name only. We should have seen this coming when he changed the law to prevent opposition parties from even running in Russian “elections”.
Pretty sure some folks did see this coming, warned that it was coming, warned that Putin should be considered unfriendly to the United States and the West…
Oh well, we avoided WWIII wit hthe old Soviet Union through strength and determination, now we get to see how weakness and leading from behind works out with the reawakened Russian Bear.
I 100% agree
Isn’t this more or less how the Second World War began?
Do you reckon maybe it’s deja vu all over again?
Pretty damned close to it.
lebensraum
Christ, I hope not.
All you guys have said it better than I. So I will just add a Here-Here and say God protect us and don’t let some dumbass scared, trigger happy fool get us into a conflict there. Even if they are a European NATO troop as soon as the shit hits the fan they will be on OUR doorstep asking for troops, arms and of course more money. It’s the blood, limbs and lives I am concerned about…American that is.
The timing couldn’t have better for our RIF, huh?
Stevie Wonder saw this coming. Yes; we have warned of this for the last 6 years. We got a sneak peek at how the Presidential candidates would handle an internation crisis when the Russians invaded Georgia. THAT was the tell-tale sign of how things were going to go. For all his faults, McCain looked very Presidential in his response. Obama took a week, had several meetings with advisors and still said nothing of consequence. Putin was paying attention, too. A lot of our adversaries were. Now we see what “smart diplomacy” really accomplishes.
Yeah, it’s time that Europe starts paying back a little, but we know how that’s going to work out. NATO is going to issue strongly worded messages, just like our CiC did and that’s about all we can do. Obama isn’t going to stop gutting the military and cutting the defense budget, so we will, once again, go to war with the military we have. No, I don’t mean it’s a guarantee that we will get into a shooting war, but we will need to reposition some key units and build up some forces, again, to keep the Europeans from wetting themselves.
I still find it fascinating how The Big O mocked Romney in the presidential debates over his comment about Russia being our major national security threat. If we had a truly unbiased msm they would be playing that video right now on a loop track…
Dreams are nice, aren’t they?
So, where should I put the bomb shelter?
Indeed. Personally, I think New Zealand or South America would be the safest places to be. Something tells me all this coverage of that Malaysian Airliner is being done to distract people from what’s going on in places like Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Thailand etc…
Lebanon is getting bad too. In fact, I’d argue that it’s just another front of the Syrian War-Western Iraq is another one.
Obama was mocking Romney because Obama and most of the democrats are not chess players, they have no mid or endgame to speak of…after the opening they just react until they are mated…
The Russians and the Chinese are both capable of playing chess and Putin has always approached every situation with an eye towards the long game….
With an ever less intellectually capable electorate however I’m not surprised that most Americans don’t get it either, and the MSM will never criticize the very man they all told us would improve our standing in the world view…even when he failed to do that on every level….
It’s pretty sad, isn’t it?
Old Trooper I know as well as all of you the seriousness of this situation. But…when you wrote “Stevie Wonder saw this coming.” I spewed coffee on my screen after it came through my nose! Thanks for that.
No problem! Glad I could help 🙂
This could be Oprah’s opportunity for a comeback. “Oprah Meets with Putin: World Peace Agreement Signed!.”
If you really want to put an end to this egregious nonsense, there are several options.
1 – Find a way to put OPEC out of business. They still control oil prices on the commodities market. Dismantle that and the argument is done. The entire Middle East depends on the price of oil at its current levels. Drop it back to 1955 levels and not only does Vlad no longer control that market, he’ll look ridiculous, along with the Saudis and that imbecile in Venezuela.
2 – Find a US presidential candidate with the charisma of a Kennedy (yes, they do have it, even if you don’t like them), the negotiating skills of a really good lawyer, the bluster of a Chris Christie, and the con artist skills of a Bernie Madoff (or a good poker player). Oh, yeah, make sure he or she can put an end to the entire welfare scam that LBJ started back in 1965.
3 – Reinstate the draft.
Boosting our domestic production would go a long ways to affecting OPEC – and Russia’s – bottom line. Regarding the draft, I’m not so sure that would necessarily make things “better.” I’m too young to have experienced the draft-era, but I have plenty of family members who have. They told me about how people would avoid military service like Clinton, Howard Dean, etc. They also told me about the “issues” that came with conscription in terms of people not wanting to be there-and how it showed through their actions. I’m not too sure I’d want to be around for that returning, but from what I understand Jimmy Carter kinda assured the draft would fail if ever brought back with the pardoning of deserters (although I could be wrong on that).
Couldn’t those pardons be revoked?
Reinstating the draft is an acknowledgement that the world of Putin’s youth may/may not have returned.
It really has far less to do with a revival of Communism than it does with control. Vlad wants to return to the days when the USSR controlled that part of the world. I get that, because I want to return to the days when a loaf of bread didn’t cost me as much as a gallon of gas, and cooking from scratch didn’t have a label, i.e., ‘foodie’.
If you remember that off-the-cuff remark by bodaprez (after the elction, etc.), you’ll remember the knowing smile on Vlad’s face. I’d bet money when he left the building, he said the equivalent of ‘What an asshole’ in Russian.
Probably could, but do you see that happening with guys like Obama in office? I don’t.
Neither do I.
No, that would take someone with some real intestinal fortitude to do that.
Good point
Sopt on!
Spot… damn dislexic fingers
Agree with all except #3. IMHO, I think having a professional force (albeit one that must be maintained and kept at an appropriate size, strength, and level of readiness, which BHO is not doing) is the way to go. We can still reinstate the draft in times of dire need. Force readiness is badly hurt when you put a bunch of people who overwhelmingly don’t want to be there in the service. You end up with the sort of drug abuse and social unrest we saw in the ’60s.
@ static-line and HS Sophomore, Et Alii: If conscription results in rampant substandard military personnel, then why were the results of conscription during the Second World War and the Korean Conflict as undisciplined as the conscripts during the war in Viet Nam? It wasn’t the conscription that resulted in poorly motivated troops, but the increasing and pervasive moral degeneration within our American society, combined with, or enhanced by, our government’s continued hypocrisy of deliberately ignoring and/or suppressing our divinely inspired Constitution of the United States of America. Anyway, I was a draftee, but my situation was rather unique, for having been unable to enlist, I volunteered to be drafted. During the years I was serving in my beloved United States Army, troop morale was universally VERY low, with highly publicized lack of support from home, further complicated by more or less flagrant illegal drug use and violent racial conflicts, and that was true of enlistees and draftees alike. The good thing about draftees is that they are temporary soldiers who represent the thoughts, influences, customs, and morality of their various communities, and being rather independently minded, they would not be relied on if our government ordered them to turn their guns on their fellow American citizens. On the other hand, an all volunteer, paid, professional military force DOES pose a domestic threat when governed by tyrants and despots, for with continued indoctrination and few, if any, permanent ties to any non-military American community, CAN be counted on to blindly obey illegal orders to murder dissident Americans. It’s already happened a couple of times, with Ruby Ridge and the Waco Massacre. Also, an all volunteer, paid, professional, full-time, standing armed force is VERY expensive to maintain, and since the expense must be justified, there exists great temptation for corrupt politicians to have our nation deeply involved in foreign adventures. WHY do you think, after the success of the War for Independence, that Americans at that point in history were ardently OPPOSED to the establishment of the United States Military Academy? WHY did George Washington, upon retiring, sternly admonish the Congress (and… Read more »
John Robert Mallernee-It worked then because there was a clear inherency and need for a large military force to go overseas and fight in a conflict that directly affected the safety and security of the USA. In that circumstance, citizens will respond and fight to preserve the country. It’s when that inherency goes away and you have the draft to provide manpower for an unpopular conflict like Vietnam, or to just sit around in garrison, that you begin to run into serious trouble. Also, the college exemption creating a divide in society between those who have to go and those who can get a cushy ride. That’s what happened in the Vietnam era. It’s worth noting that of the only two countries in the world that have successfully adopted large conscription-based citizen militaries, Israel and Switzerland, both are under varying degrees of serious outside threat. Israel from its Arab neighbors and Palestinian extremists, Switzerland from the far larger countries that surround it. Both don’t have loopholes enabling college kids and the children of the elites to slip through the cracks. And both have the largest parts of their force in reserve as opposed to active duty (in Switzerland’s case, virtually the entire military). They’ve both consciously stepped away from the model the US used before we abolished the draft i.e. taking large numbers of unwilling young men and forcing them to do two years on active duty, often in the continental US where they could easily desert. In nearly every metric, the US military is an infinitely better quality force with a small group of generally highly motivated professionals, lavishly trained and equipped, than with a large force of unmotivated, resentful conscripts (note: there were many great soldiers during the draft era and I am sure you were one; I refer to the bad apples who were forced to go in when they didn’t want to, weren’t qualified, etc.). If we went back to the old model like Thomas Ricks and Charlie Rangel want us to, it would majorly hurt force readiness. The military isn’t a social experiment; it’s purely… Read more »
I also don’t buy the argument about the draftee force being key to the prevention of the military being a force for tyranny. If the soldiers on here (or indeed any I’ve ever met) are any indication, I think the volunteer military still maintains its critical thinking skills and moral qualms. If you look through history, one interesting trend is that tyranny generally only takes root in countries where citizens are treated and held to be subjects rather than masters of their country’s government . This was the situation in Germany, where soldiers and regular citizens were so conditioned to obey the orders of superiors that even lone British soldiers like Jack Churchill were able to make dozens of German troops surrender at once by simply screaming in a martial voice for the Germans to lay their rifles at their feet (there are multiple recorded instances of such things occurring). America, however, is truly a unique country on Earth. Our citizens are trained from birth to regard ourselves as citizens and partners in our country rather than as our government’s subjects. And we get mad when we see the government getting too big for its britches. I don’t see any American standing for totalitarianism-and soldiers are Americans, too. If any tyrant tried to use the all-volunteer force to oppress the citizenry, I picture the US military going the way of Tsar Nicholas II’s White Army-mutiny and revolt of about 90% of the force to support the protestors.
@HS Sophomore:
Do you know what happened at Ruby Ridge, Idaho, followed up a few months later by the Waco Massacre?
At Waco, the ATF gave false affidavits so the warrant issued by the judge would include legal authorization for military forces from Fort Hood, Texas, and from the Alabama National Guard.
Remember, the National Guard is NOT the true citizen militia, but a component of the regular Army.
Not only was this done at Waco, but it is now regular procedure to deploy out of state National Guard units to incidents in distant states.
This was the identical technique employed at Tiananmen Square, i.e., using troops from distant provinces to violently quell the demonstrations.
You have no idea what life in this country USED to be like when I was your age.
Only (some of?) us old folks are shocked by the drastic loss of personal liberty in so brief a time span.
Elsewhere in this same forum, I have pointed out that for many YEARS, I have repeatedly written and warned of what I percieve as the uncanny parallels between our contemporary American society and the historic rise of the Third Reich.
The tyranny and despotism is ALREADY upon us.
The only reason you can’t see it is because you weren’t yet born when all of these personal liberties began being so rapidly and totally forfeited by an apathetic, ignorant, and indoctrinated public citizenry.
With respect Mr. Mallernee, the mere fact you can post that without anyonymity and without repercussions says otherwise. I have experiences with tyranny, too. Here’s how that went: When I was in China with my family to adopt my little sister, we had a stopover for a few days in Tiananamen Square so we could see the sights (Mao’s body, the Forbidden City, etc.). While we were in the tunnel connecting the Forbidden City and broader Tiananamen Square, we came across a whole bunch of poor Chinese folks, mostly old women, selling some nifty multicolored, light-up tops to tourists. This was technically a violation of the rules in Tiananamen Square; it’s the Chinese equivalent to a permit violation in the US. After we bought a top from one lady, we watched as a plainclothes policeman took a truncheon out from under his coat and started brutally beating a woman who was also selling tops maybe twenty feet away. About a squad’s worth of his cohorts showed up maybe five seconds later, and the peddlers packed up their stuff and disappeared like a magic trick. You could tell they’d done it many times before. If that had happened in the US, it would have provoked national outrage and firing and jail time for the officer responsible. There, it was practically an everyday occurrence, something to be expected. That, sir, is what tyranny looks like. There is nothing even remotely close to that in the US. When pregnant mothers have to live in fear of being snatched off the street to undergo forced abortions in order to meet a bureaucrat’s population control quota, that’s tyranny. When you can get arrested for protesting against the police state and be vanished forever, that’s tyranny. The fact that we can do the last one and don’t have to worry about the first two means tyranny and despotism are not upon us. Do we have to be on watch to make sure government doesn’t encroach on our liberties? Certainly. But this has always been true. Simply put, mistakes, abuse, and ego such as the type that… Read more »
@ HS Sophomore:
Are you home schooled, or do you attend a public high school?
The reason I ask is because you seem unusually intelligent and erudite compared to what I’ve seen of other youth.
It’s obvious that someone, probably your parents, has exerted great effort to instill and develop your rare (today) gifts of vocabulary, expression, questioning, and research.
I congratulate you on your accomplishments, and hope you will continue your talented intellectual expansion in all of your future endeavors.
Our nation desperately needs you!
Thank you sir. That means a great deal. No, like MCPO, I am a product of a Jesuit HS. I was in public schools from k-4th grade when I switched over to a Catholic elementary/middle school where I went until 8th grade because I was wracked with Lyme Disease and my middle school teacher was less than understanding. I was never homeschooled. I credit just generally being curious and going to the library a lot. Also, my mother. She enabled my interests by taking me to a lot of significant places, putting a map of the world wallpaper on the wall of my room that made me great at geography, etc. God bless that woman. Remember, I suppose I’m a rather rare bird for the reasons that I got interested in this stuff at an early age, my Mom enabled me, I matured earlier because of being sick for years with a bad illness (Lyme disease) and going through the process of adopting my little sister from China, etc., but there are plenty of others like me. There are smart people everywhere, in public schools and otherwise. A lot of us inhabit Speech and Debate Teams, Young Republican and Democrat Clubs, Model UNs (unlike the real deal, it’s assumed that the UN has real power there :D), and just walking the hallways. You can find them; you’ve just got to look.
Yeah I don’t think so. I’d rather serve with people who want to be there instead of having to look over my shoulder all the time. The things my family members who served during that time didn’t make it sound very appealing…
Well the French have volunteered to put together some white flags in preparation for their contribution to any NATO military efforts.
VOV the French have already put sanctions in place. They have promised to export only their most inferior table wines to Russia.
If they throw in some stale baguettes it might seal the deal!
VoV…now your talking some REAL sanctions. 😀
There are some small differences between now and the real Cold War.
Pravda is no longer the news source coming from Russia. While the USSR is gone, it’s been replaced mostly by the Federation of Russian States, but the governance isn’t much different. Ukraine is no longer the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, the way it was during the Cold War.
News this morning: Russian troops have seized a marine base in Crimea. http://news.msn.com/world/russian-troops-seize-ukraine-marine-base-in-crimea-officer
I think Vlad had bodaprez sized up the moment the idiot was elected.
No, Ex, he had him sized up before the election. During the invasion of Georgia, when McCain came out and denounced the action, almost immediately, and Obumbles took a week and several meetings with advisors, before coming out and saying absolutely nothing. THAT is when Putin had Obumbles dialed in. That’s when the voters should have had him dialed in, also, but they were too googly-eyed over his “rock star” status to give a shit. Hell, most of those dumbasses don’t care now, because if it doesn’t ivolve the Kardashians and selfies, they don’t really care about much of anything.
There was an article this morning in the Washington post talking about how Obama had judged the world was ready to move beyond 19th century politics and the use of military force towards a model where economics and diplomacy solve all the world’s problems. Looks like he and the Western European countries forgot that diplomacy without the threat of military force is just so much hot air. Putin may be using 19th century politics but is pretty damned effective in this 21st century world. To put it in Sun Tzu terms, Obama failed to understand Putin.
Just started reading Clancy’s “Command Authority”.
Wasn’t on purpose, it was finally available at the local library.
Prescience, or just a really smart dude?
Prescience, indeed.
The Euro’s need to go for it then.
They need to learn some Russian first and the US needs to drop NATO as an alliance.
And if Vlad the Hammer decides to disregard this little demonstration, what then? Will Angela Merkel shout “Panzer Vor!” and send the ravening EU hordes East?
All the “show of force” in the world does nothing if the guy you’re trying to deter understands that you don’t have the intention of following through. Deterrence depends wholly on perception of will.
You know quite well Vlad is only testing the waters to see what he can get away with.
Probably true, but not what I asked. Do you believe that Vlad will be intimidated by a ‘show of force’ from the EU, which has spent the past twenty years eliminating all of its force options in favor of increased social welfare spending for middle eastern ‘refugees’? Do you believe that, if Vlad refuses to be intimidated by this ‘show of force’ and rightly decides that it’s all show and no force, the EUocrats have the political will to back up their threats with action?
No.
Merkel’s time is coming to an end.
The rest of the EU is inhabited by the EU equivalent of yuppies and welfare recipients, and NATO hasn’t sent anyone to discuss things with Vlad.
The ‘worst’, most forceful thing any of them have done to date is to throw Russia out of the G-8. Vlad sits on one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. He has a large population that needs/wants jobs. The Soviet Union did fine without the EU before the EU existed.
Threats? He can put his feet up on the stool in front of the fire and toast himself with cider vodka. He doesn’t ‘need’ Europe the way Europe needs him. And should the dismissal from G-8 (now G-7) have no effect on stopping his progress, I doubt you’ll even see a ‘show of force’ from the EU.
That was where I was going. the best that could happen is that the Bundeswehr goes on parade for a few weeks, and then Vlad goes right back to business.
The worst is another Task Force Smith.
There may be other ways to discourage Putin (I particularly like the idea of opening up Ukraine’s armories and handing out weapons to every citizen willing to bear them in defense of the nation) but a “NATO show of force” isn’t going to be a starter and for Breedlove to be babbling about one just shows how nonserious he is.
The Europeans have been undermining us for decades,trumpeting their soft power. We should act only in our own interests. Otherwise send them recipes for that Russian shoe leather they will be choking on.
France and Germany have, but Poland, the Czechs, the Baltic States, and the entire Gang of 8 have been very helpful diplomatically and in many cases militarily. I couldn’t give a whit what happens to France and Germany, but we should care about our Eastern European allies.
Comrades in Arms:
It’s officially past Midnight, and since today is the Twenty-Fifth, I want wish each and every one of you a
“MERRY CHRISTMAS ! ! !”
or in Gaidhlig (i.e., Scottish Gaelic),
“NOLLAIG CHRIDHEIL ! ! !”
Ho! Ho! Ho! (and a bottle of eggnog)
John Robert Mallernee
Armed Forces Retirement Home
Gulfport, Mississippi 39507
Oh? My calendar must be suffering a malfunction.