Surviving Texas and Ohio
Photo from AP/Yahoo
Speculation that Hillary will drop out of the campaign if she loses Ohio and Texas today is laughable. We’re talking about the woman who never announced formally that she was running for the US Senate in New York so that it was impossible for her to lose the race – after all she’d never been running so how could she lose?
No, she won’t drop out after today, no matter what the results – but that doesn’t stop the media from hyping her declining chances to win – they have to build up a measure of tension among the people who are tiring of the marathon election season the media has created. (Washington Post link)
Even an Obama victory in one of today’s two big states is likely to result in the race ending, although perhaps not immediately. Former president Bill Clinton established that benchmark recently and though his wife’s advisers have tried to back away from it, many Democrats have adopted it as the measure by which they judge today’s results.
“WJC’s [William Jefferson Clinton’s] comments were extremely harmful in managing expectations,” noted one Democratic strategist.
Some senior Clinton advisers accept the former president’s political logic, but the candidate may be reluctant to end her campaign if she wins Ohio or Texas after two hard weeks of campaigning. But New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson’s comments on Sunday — that whoever holds the lead in delegates after Tuesday should be the nominee — is a mild version of what Clinton will hear if she loses both.
Republicans like that;
Democrats worry most about an alienated African American community if Obama does not become the nominee. But one strategist said the party may end up with many female voters unhappy if Clinton does not win.
Republicans hope the race continues. “It’s not a matter of splitting the party as much as it is providing us on the GOP side of the aisle with talking points and ammunition for the fall campaign,” wrote Republican Neil Newhouse. “While the length of the Democrats’ race certainly has captured the attention and interest of the electorate, the longer this goes on, the better chance [John] McCain has in November.”
The Wall Street Journal;
If the outcomes are as close as polls suggest, Sen. Clinton won’t be able to cut into Sen. Obama’s lead in delegates to the Democrats’ August nominating convention. The more likely net result from the four states is that his edge will grow. The Illinois senator currently is ahead with 1,386 delegates to 1,276 for Sen. Clinton, as calculated by the Associated Press. A candidate needs 2,025 to secure the nomination.
Even if she does lose big, Clinton has set up most of McCain’s campaign against Obama for him (Washington Times link);
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton yesterday said damaging stories swirling around her rival show that the true vetting of Sen. Barack Obama has just begun, and she predicted that a strong finish today in Ohio and Texas will revive her run for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Mr. Obama of Illinois — who had to allay reports that he played political games with his trade-deal stance and has distanced himself from the corruption trial of his former fundraiser in Chicago — made the case that Mrs. Clinton should drop out even if she scores narrow wins in the two big states.
Clinton is poisoning the well for Democrats – positioning herself as the only lectable candidate from the Democrats, she’s made every other candidate a target for Republicans.
But the Washington Times is having none of it – they’ve publsihed their own polling data that tells Democrats that Obama is the only candidate that republicans like nearly as much as their own;
Republicans like Sen. Barack Obama nearly as much as they like their own likely presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain, according to a new Fox 5/The Washington Times/Rasmussen Reports poll.
The survey determined that a quarter of self-identified Republicans rated Mr. McCain most likable, but nearly as many — 23 percent — chose Mr. Obama as most likable. And among all adults surveyed, Mr. Obama was rated likable by more people than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mr. McCain combined, underscoring the Illinois senator’s appeal to voters across the political spectrum.
“There is something about Barack Obama that is hard to capture in polling and it’s an enthusiasm, it’s a freshness, it’s an excitement he can generate that will certainly be a factor in the campaign,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen.
Anyone who thinks we’ll get rid of Hillary (or Bill, for that matter) just by not voting for her has another think comin’ – and they haven’t been paying attention for the last 15 years. She thinks she deserves the presidency – just like Kerry and Gore before her. She’s not going to let a thing like fewer votes get in her way.
Category: Politics
