Hiding the Truth? Sure Looks Like It to Me.
The DHS claimed earlier this year that they prevent roughly 81% of adults trying to sneak into the US across the southwestern border from doing that. Specifically, they claimed an interdiction rate (defined as apprehension or forcing the individual to turn back) of 81.01%.
Now, having lived in that part of the country for a while myself . . . IMO that claim doesn’t pass the “smell test”. But regardless, that was their claim.
If that number seems suspiciously low to you too, well, there may be a good reason.
It seems in last year’s Fiscal 2016 Omnibus Bill required DHS to provide Congress a report on the matter. The report still hasn’t been provided to Congress. DHS says the report “isn’t finished”.
Sources familiar with the situation say that is bull.
Instead, those familiar with the subject say such a report was completed last November by a contractor for DHS – specifically, the Institute for Defense Analyses. Apparently DHS already had such a study underway when Congress demanded one from them.
Those knowledgeable further indicate that the report is unclassified and is not marked to preclude public release. They further say it’s also reportedly the “most extensive survey” of US illegal immigration and enforcement along our southwestern border conducted to date.
Contrary to DHS claims, the report apparently shows that the actual interdiction rate (apprehension or turned back while attempting to cross) for adults attempting to cross the US border illegally is about 50% – not the 81% DHS claims. The DHS figure was produced by “padding the numbers”. It was calculated after including unaccompanied children and those who voluntarily surrendered (likely because they were either lost or in severe distress) vice being apprehended.
In short, that “81%” number simply isn’t accurate. DHS did not apprehend or force back 81% of adults attempting to cross the US southwestern border illegally; the actual fraction is far lower. They’re engaging in intentional spin and dissembling. Again.
Gee, you don’t think maybe that’s why they’re “stonewalling” release of the report that exposes the truth – do you? Why, this Administration would never do something like that! (I trust the sarcasm in the preceding two sentences was obvious.)
Fox News has an article giving more details. It’s worth a read.
“Most transparent Administration in history.” Yeah. Right.
Category: "The Floggings Will Continue Until Morale Improves", "Your Tax Dollars At Work", Crime, Illegal Immigrants
Well being one who lives on da boarder anything DHS says is BULLSHIT
I have many close friends that work for BP and they will tell you it’s the worst they have ever seen it
The violence is through the roof and there are so many other turds crossing not just our neighbors from south of the border
Lived and worked in the EP area for over a decade, I would tend to believe that someone misunderstood the question – and that they fail to stop 81%.
????????
Follow the first link. No question was asked – it was a written claim by DHS regarding last fiscal year in their latest annual report.
gotta work on your sense of what is and isn’t meant to be literally interpreted…’not understanding the question’ is a colloquialism for “I know they understood what I asked but their answer is so fucking far off base I’m going to do the equivalent of ‘bless your heart’ and say ‘I think they misunderstood the question.'” Figuratively speaking.
Amen and being in Arizona myself, I can tell you the DHS is a lying bunch of A.H.’s, no intelligence, no morals…just graduates of the hillabitch’s school of lying HORSESHYT!!
If they know they are stopping 81% then they know that 19% are getting through. If they know 19% are getting through why are they not stopping that 19%.
Not quite as easy as you might think at first, BHT.
The US Southwest is freaking big – and empty. “Big”, as in “many places where there are literally tens of miles between roads of any type – and no people”.
There are also only so many vehicles (air and ground) available for Border Patrol use – as well as only so many BP agents. If enough folks try to cross at once, and scatter when intercepted, there’s a good chance a few might get away even with backup available.
In such cases you can closely estimate or even physically count the numbers, and will know how many got away. In other cases, groups may split after crossing, with only some of the resulting smaller bands captured. But they’ll still have a damn good idea of how many crossed the border before they split up.
Bottom line: catching 80+% wouldn’t be too bad IMO given the resources we currently devote to the effort. Catching around 50%? Um, different story. I think we can easily do better than that with the level of resources we have today.
IMO we could also easily do much better than catching 80% if we wanted to. But that would be costly.
Politics prevents us from doing better in both cases.
That doesn’t excuse them! There have been many groups volunteering to patrol the border, obozo the a.h. of the year doesn’t want them patroled, he wants the NWO plan of everyone everywhere! A bunch of claymors and some 100 or so competent snipers could stop this shyt in a week!
You can count tracks and view trail cameras to see the ones you miss.
I once took a group to a Scout camp in West Texas. The road in passed through a rancher’s property. Ranchers in Texas often have their own air strips – places where they’ve dozed out a landing strip so they can get to the various parts of the ranch. Or else a pasture/stretch of land that can be used as such. This particular ranch has a landing strip near where the road to the Scout camp runs. The Narcos know of the strip, and have been known to fly in a low-level run to the strip for p/u by a vehicle on the U.S. side. They know how to dodge the radar, know that with the distances in West Texas it can take hours for LE to respond if they are detected.
And even if a plane does show up to interdict them, we cannot shoot down their plane because of some political nonsense.
If one has never been in the U.S. Southwest, the distances and logistics are inconceivable – and not as Vencinni used the word.
Free enterprise would help here. Put a bounty on their capture and we would get 99% of the illegals.
Bonus for pregnant women!
That doesn’t even include all the tunnels that are used to go under the border. They’ve gotten to the point where tunnels start on the Mexico side and go right up into houses on the US side.
They’ve found a few of those tunnels, which means there are dozens and dozens more we don’t know about.
Not to mention all the boats, rafts, etc., they use as well.
50% sounds much closer to reality to me, if even less.
Self Serving Lying Shittards.
I hope wikileaks blows these motherfuckers UP!
Crazy thing is we have been so focused on Billary that most seem to forget about Obummer
Everything going on now is a result of a failed presidency
You know what they say 93% of statistics on the internet are made up.
Any time someone trumpets a percentage in their report, my first two questions are what was used in the numerator and what was used in the denominator to calculate the percentage.
Then sart peeling the onion from there.
I’m taking statistics class right now. Just trying to remember the dozens of algebraic formulas to determine focus group sizes, upper and lower bounds, margin of error, etc., is making my brain crackle and smoke.
I have trouble trusting any polls with the amount of work I have to put into solving one equation based on a select group matching a criteria.
Based on demographics, you could call 1000 people in the US and get the poll to say anything you wanted to, if you based it in certain locations, socio-economic centers, political group centers, and so on.
In this case, I’d bet they stop less than 50%, but with 51% they’ll say “see? we’re stopping MORE than are getting through!”
“Stopping” is a nuanced word.Fact is if they’re even caught by BP and they’re from a country other than Mexico, after running them to make sure they aren’t wanted or prior deports, the BP simply releases them with an NTA or in some cases even transports them to any family members house. The Failure to appear rate on those NTA’s runs over 80% for sure. Mexicans that are caught are given the option of a Voluntary Return which is a sort of no harm no foul, try again another day thing. Unless they claim “Asylum” or some kind of persecution. Immigration is a hot mess, mostly because of Congress and the Pres.
Damn stats. If only they would report that they caught “a bunch” or “quite a few” or “lots” their headache might disappear. How exactly does this work, anyway? To piggyback on BigHead Tom’s comment above, how is it known how many illegals are crossing such that one can report how many were stopped?
“You’re gonna go faster than any man ever has”
You know what word physicists never use? “Fast”. So when they say, “fast” they’re just trying to distract me from the fact I’ll be flying into space under a tarp with a rocket strapped to my ass.
“Most transparent Administration in history.”
Let me correct that for you:
“Most transparently CROOKED Administration in history.”
There, that seems a little more accurate to me…
Well, it was a quote. I didn’t claim it was accurate. (smile)
How about:
“Most Transparent for the positive things they’ve done that they want to tell you about while hiding the bad things administration in history.”
Its a little long, but I like it.
FWIW: per the same sources who “spilled the beans” about the report, the reason DHS is sitting on the report vice releasing it was that it would help Trump in the election.
Check back tomorrow. One’s already queued up for tomorrow AM that’s IMO even better. (smile)
You’re my hero today Hondo.
Having lived and worked on or near the border all my life, I can safely call bullshit on the 81% figure.
I’ve interfaced with Border Patrol and to a lesser extent Customs/ICE (before and after the name change & restructuring). Worked at two stations that had a POE in the IA, five more whose IAs abut the border fence. Most Border Patrol agents I’ve come across were good people busting their ass to do their best at a difficult and dangerous job that’s been needlessly complicated by the powers-that-be. Of course, they have their share of dumbasses, same as everybody else, but by and large good guys and gals doing good work.
Quite a few of them have told me that 50% is optimistic. From what I’ve seen, I’m inclined to agree.
The other wonderful stat that Obama likes to brag about is his increase in deportations, more than any other administration. And how did he accomplish that? Any illegal that turns back and returns to Mexico is now scored as a “deportation”.
The border isn’t the field agents only concern, coastal ports in Texas are another source. OTM’s can slip in off of crew boats.
It really doesn’t matter much what percentage they stop, detain, or otherwise identify if they are just going to release them into the US anyway. A much more relevant figure would be how many are actually returned to their country of origin juxtaposed with best guestimates of how many traverse the various borders and ports. The first number could be an absolute (and accurate) figure, with the second rather meaningless. Still, it would the DHS an area to play with numbers and pat themselves on the back. Or something.
I retired from ICE. I could write you chapter and verse on the immigration system but it would just piss you off. Suffice to say the officers/agents working the line bust ass every day, and are let down every day by the politicians who have turned it into yet another bullshit meaningless joke.
I’m just totally shocked by that! The Federal Government is here to help and support us, to the lowest level! No matter what they do its in our best interest! Totes Magoats!
Yeah, I couldn’t type that with a straight face.