Panama Alternative?
It’s pretty much an article of faith that there are essentially two routes around South America – all the ‘way down south around the Cape, or via the Panama Canal. I suppose you could argue that around south of Africa is a third, but realistically there are two ways – and one of them is in trouble. Yep, the big ditch, the Panama Canal.
A 2025 study published in Geophysical Research Letters projected that the drought conditions that choked the Panama Canal in 2023 could strike twice as often by the end of the century if emissions remain high. Samuel Muñoz of Northeastern University led the research. His team modeled water levels in Gatún Lake, the freshwater source that feeds the canal’s locks, across several emissions pathways.
Every ship that moves through the Panama Canal depends on Gatún Lake. A single transit consumes more than 26 million gallons of freshwater. When drought hit in 2023, canal operators slashed daily crossings from 38 ships to as few as 22 and forced vessels to lighten their loads. Some cargo faced delays stretching past two weeks.
Muñoz’s model traced how Gatún Lake responds as temperatures climb and rain patterns shift. Under the highest-emissions scenario, the steepest losses came during Panama’s wet season. From May through August, monthly rainfall could drop by roughly 50 millimeters. Muñoz put the stakes plainly. “If we mitigate emissions and we choose one of the lower emissions pathways, then it really keeps this system pretty stable,” he said. “But if we don’t, then these low water levels that are really disruptive now become the norm by the end of the century.”
Given the end of the century, while this isn’t an immediate issue, could it become one? Mexico is working on an alternative. Here’s a Hyundai shipment.
A single shipment of 900 vehicles crossed southern Mexico by rail in roughly nine hours this spring, moving from the Pacific to the U.S. East Coast in about 72 hours. The operation, run by Hyundai and its logistics arm Hyundai Glovis, marks the first major international test of Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. This 303-kilometer rail route is taking shape just as climate pressures threaten the reliability of the Panama Canal.
Nine hours across Mexico, then another three days to the East Coast is what that works out to. The average transit time through the Canal is 8-10 hours, so the rail is quite competitive.
The Interoceanic Corridor is not one rail line. The Mexican Navy runs it as a multimodal logistics platform stitching together four ports: Salina Cruz, Coatzacoalcos, Dos Bocas, and Puerto Chiapas. The Mexican government detailed the platform’s structure during 2024 briefings with U.S. officials. Line Z, the 308-kilometer freight spine that Hyundai used, opened for service in December 2023.
The corridor requires two ocean transfers for cargo moving from Asia to the eastern United States. That double handling works for goods where speed and a reliable schedule matter more than the lowest possible freight cost. Finished vehicles fit the profile. Bulk container traffic does not, and the corridor is not designed to compete with Panama on that front.Indian Defense
Multiple strings to the bow, right? And the higher volume on rail, probably the cost per container will lower.
(The pic above is from when the drought last hit the Canal.)
Category: Science and Technology
Easy solution. Pump the freshwater back to the lake. Don’t let it go into the ocean.
Oh wait. Clitori change, I mean, climate change.
The newer Neopanamax locks recycle about 60% of the water but it is 50 million gallons per vessel transit to transit the locks.
The locks are all gravity fed so to return the water to the lake would be uphill pumping for 40 miles.
The bigger reason behind all this is the deforestation of the rain forests. This eliminates the moist wetlands and there no longer is enough drainage.
Removing forests doesn’t lower rainfall, does it? if it doesn’t then the same amount of water would reach the lake regardless of the deforestation.
I say build a pumping station at each lock above sea level and, instead of venting it downstream, pump it back in the lake/river/lock above. There’s no sense in pumping the sea-level lock because of the salt water.
Screw it Just nuke a channel from Oaxaca to Veracruz.
Funny, I thought the ocean’s El Nino vs the La Nina was what drove rainfall on this side of the globe, not emissions.
On the other hand if just getting the vehicles to the East Coast was the goal, why not just offload them to rail heads on the West coast and ship them from there? No reason to go to Mexico, AKA cartel land for shipment.
And of course there is the risk of “lost” or “damaged” containers and/or their contents as they are unloaded from ships to cross that “cartel land” and then reloaded on different ships..
I don’t think you could get the vehicles offloaded, the trains built and run through the various interchange points in a timely or cost competitive fashion. Now, if the government rethinks its rejection of the Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger, that might be viable. A cost to coast auto rack hotshot would be something to see…especially if it was pulled by Big Boy!🤣
Drain the canal and pave it.
I would think all of that cross docking would create a lot of damage and pilfering. It would also take a lot of time to unload the first vessel , load the rail cars , unload the rail cars and finally load the second vessel. Sounds like a lot of make work to me.
Yeah but;
If the ship is RoRo and the vehicles are not containerized then it is much faster to load and unload. That is why the article specifies they are not competing with container ship traffic.
It can take a week to unload a large container ship and another week to reload it on the other side, then a third week to unload it at it’s final port. Add in the original load and you spend a full month just loading and unloading. You can sail the other way around the world faster.
Depends on how many TEUs we’re talking and how efficient the port operates. Pasha Hawaii Lines unloaded and reloaded their ships (fully, which isn’t standard for box boats anywhere else really) in 36 hours or so.
There is nothing of that nature in Panama.
99% percent of traffic goes through the canal and there isn’t a port in the world large enough to handle the East Coast trade. Once the Singapore Tuas Mega Port is finished in the 2040s, they might be able to transit that much freight.
Hack Stone attended a wedding reception on a boat that sailed cruised around San Francisco Bay. We passed the docks on the Oakland side, and it took next to no time for the crane operator to pick up a Conex container and settle it on a trailer. Hack recalls that it was possibly than 30 seconds between the trucks. They were very efficient bringing products made by slave labor in China to American consumers.
A good crane operator can manage 25 moves an hour. In third world ports or places with shitty gantries…? You’re talking maybe 10.
Or just invest in a new canal through Nicaragua, Chinese starting working on it and failed, but that doesn’t mean it is a terrible idea to have other options.
Simple solution would be to dig the canal deeper, sea level all the way across, so no locks are needed.
What could go wrong?
If uncontrolled, mixing the Pacific current and the Gulf stream would jack up weather forever. Just blowing a giant trench would create giant problems.
Granite mountains.
Too bad the Darien Gap is such a bitch
But it would be perfect. Tree huggers would hate it. I say: Do it!