Covid-19: Some Perspective

| March 31, 2020

The media – and much of the public – appear to have collectively lost their ever-lovin’ minds over Covid-19. Specifically, many are IMO hugely overreacting; they’re all but screaming, at the top of their lungs, “The end of the world is at hand!”

Well, here’s some data that should shed light on the actual impact of Covid-19 in the US. What follows assumes that current projections are correct regarding the expected number of deaths under current Covid-19 mitigation strategies.

. . .

Under current mitigation strategies, Covid-19 is projected to cause perhaps 220,000 deaths. Now, a US death toll of 220,000 seems huge and horrible. But over 30,000 die each year on US highways; almost no one bats an eye.

So let’s do a couple of comparisons. Just to keep them more or less “apples-to-apples” comparisons: just how does Covid-19’s projected impact how compare to this year’s US flu season – a more-or-less average one? How does it compare to other really bad flu seasons within living memory? (And no, I’m not going to compare it with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. With the exception of a tiny number of older centenarians, no one alive today remembers that pandemic.)

Well, let’s see.

. . .

Regarding this year’s flu season: it turns out that CDC in fact has projections of the total number of cases; the number seeking medical care; the number hospitalized; and the total number of deaths attributable to this year’s flu season. You can view those projections here.

BLUF: the CDC estimates that this year’s flu season has/will result in the following:

a. Between 38 and 54 million flu infections;
b. Between 18 and 26 million people having sought or seeking medical assistance due to the flu;
c. Between 400 and 730 thousand people have been or will be hospitalized due to flu; and
d. Between 24 and 62 thousand people have already died or will die due to the flu and/or related complications.

The CDC’s estimated numbers above are ranges; ranges are somewhat cumbersome to compare. So for comparison, I’ll take the midpoint of each range as the estimated value. (See note at end.) That gives the following estimated values for the current flu season:

a. 46M flu infections;
b. 22M seeking medical assistance due to flu;
c. 565k hospitalized due to flu; and
d. 43k deaths attributable to flu.

The normal seasonal flu mortality rate has historically been somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.1%. The midpoints above thus appear to be consistent with historical norms. However, the seasonal flu’s mortality rate does vary from year to year; sometimes it’s higher, and sometimes it’s lower.

As a society, we take mitigation measures with respect to seasonal flu to limit its impact. Those measures are called “voluntary immunizations”. And yet we still typically have tens of millions of cases annually – and tens of thousands of deaths.

“So what?”, you say? OK, let’s compare the current flu season with the current best projections for Covid-19 with mitigation. With mitigation, best projection is that Covid-19 may cause about 220k deaths in the US. Last time I checked, 220k / 43k = about 5.12. That means Covid-19 may claim roughly 5x as many as this year’s flu season – which is a more-or-less average one.

Five times the number of deaths during a normal flu season is indeed bad. But it’s certainly not “the sky is falling” or “end of the world” bad.

. . .

For some additional perspective, let’s compare Covid-19’s projected impact with two reasonably recent US flu seasons that were indeed bad – but which were both nowhere near as bad as the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic. First, let’s compare Covid-19’s projected impact with the impact of the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic in the US.

The 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic was quite bad. It’s estimated to have killed 1.1 million worldwide; 110,000 of those deaths are believed to have occurred in the US. Since the US population at the time was just over half what it is today (174.8 million then, approx 330 million now), that means the US mortality rate for the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic was very close to that projected for Covid-19 today .

A second comparison worth noting is with the 1968-1970 “Hong Kong Flu” pandemic (see previous link above for reference). That pandemic is estimated to have killed approximately 1 million worldwide, with approximately 100,000 of those deaths occurring in the US. Since the US population in 1969 was only approximately 202.7 million, that means the US mortality rate for the “Hong Kong Flu” was also relatively close to that projected for Covid-19; it was 74+% of that projected for Covid-19 – or about 3/4 as much.

As a society, we obviously survived the 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic; we also survived the 1968 “Hong Kong Flu” pandemic. Neither was “the end of the world.” That bodes well for this time around.

While I’m too young to remember much if anything about the 1957 Asian Flu, I do remember the “Hong Kong Flu”. It caused concern, but otherwise wasn’t that huge a deal; people mostly went about their lives without huge disruption. But the media didn’t present that as being a doomsday event, either.

. . .

Am I saying don’t be prepared, and act as if nothing of note is happening? Of course not. Don’t do stupid things (like taking the “Covid Challenge”); don’t act recklessly or foolishly. Certainly don’t take Covid-19 lightly – because it can be deadly. Follow the guidance given by Federal, state, and local authorities. Protect yourselves using common-sense measures.

Some individuals and families will indeed be tragically affected by Covid-19; do what you can to make sure you’re not in that group. But don’t quit living in the meantime.

Life will go on. So will society, albeit with a rather high “teh stoopid” factor for a while longer. IMO the panic and associated foolish behavior we’re currently seeing is a gross media-driven overreaction; it’s both ill-advised and counterproductive.

Bottom line: all of this “the sky is falling” hype the media is spreading daily is exactly that: hype. No, the world is not ending; neither is society. Covid-19 will likely be bad, but current projections say it will hardly be catastrophic. And within living memory – and during the lifetime of many of those reading this article – the US has survived two pandemics that were roughly as bad as Covid-19 is projected to be. We’ll get through this one too.

And afterwards, you just might be able to pick up some great deals on TP, paper towels, and hand sanitizer. (smile)

—–

Author’s Note: the CDC uses Bayesian Credibility Intervals vice confidence intervals in presenting their data. While both are valid, in Credibility Intervals the maximum likelihood value of whatever you are estimating depends strongly on the actual underlying probability distribution; for influenza, since the mortality rate is different each year I’m reasonably sure that changes the pertinent distribution annually as well. An examination of the last 9 years flu season data from CDC pretty clearly shows that to be the case. The CDC’s estimate for total mortality due to flu has varied substantially with respect to where it occurs within the Credibility Interval during that 9-year period, ranging from (low end value + approx 14.6% of the width of the credibility interval) to (low end value + approx 35% of the width of the credibility interval). Without knowing more detailed info about this year’s distribution, it’s thus impossible to determine what CDC will estimate for total deaths due to this year’s seasonal flu. That’s why I chose to use midpoint estimation for this year.

However, the last 4 years have been quite similar with respect to the placement of the estimated total flu deaths within the credibility interval. For the last 4 years – and for 2 other years as well – that estimate was (low end value + between 29% and 31% of the width of the credibility interval). Speculatively using (low end value + 30% of the width of the credibility interval) for this year’s flu season yields a projected number of deaths due to flu of 35,400.

Using 35,400 for the number of estimated deaths for this year’s flu season (instead of the midpoint of the credibility interval, as I did in the article above) means that Covid-19 would be projected to cause just over 6 times as many deaths as this year’s seasonal flu vice the just over 5 times as many that using midpoint estimation yields. Again: that’s quite bad, but it’s hardly catastrophic for US society.

Category: "Truth or fiction?", Coronavirus, COVID-19, Historical, Media

Comments (235)

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  1. Combat Historian says:

    if a millennial / gen X SJW snowflake read your article, the only thing they will care about and focus on is that you called the two previous flu pandemics the “Asian Flu” and the “Hong Kong Flu” because that is SO RACIST and XENOPHOBIC. The rest of your article that deals with facts and figures and calculations will blithely go over their vacuous heads…

    • Commissar says:

      My issue with “China flu” is not that it racist.

      It is because people choosing to call it that are trying to politicize the issue.

      Rather than call it what the medical community is calling it, COVID19 or Coronavirus, they want to play propagandists and advocate the Trump administration efforts to shift responsibility and blame from themselves.

      Whatever happens with this virus Trump wants to make sure everyone knows it is not his fault. Rather than leading and mitigating the damage to people’s lives, he is focused on mitigating the damage to his administration

      At a time when we as a nation should be coming together to deal with this crisis shitbags like Hondo want to champion Trumps attempts to have political fights about what to call the virus, and try to find excuses to say “liberals” are overreacting, or sabotaging his economy.

      We are divided over bullshit political narratives coming out of the White House rather than united by the facts…

      The experts say the virus is called COVID19.
      The experts are saying we are not overreacting, in fact that we need to step up efforts.
      The experts have put the low end estimates of deaths in the US at 100,000 and the high end at just over 1,000,000. That is not the “worst case” estimate. That is the PROBABLE high end estimate.

      The meaty part of the probability curve are between 100,000 and 1,100,000. Though I don’t remember if those numbers mark one or two standard deviations in the estimates.

      That is why Trump is saying 200,000k would be a good result.

      Because he seems to finally have started to listen to the experts, somewhat. Sometimes.

      Hondo’s basic premise that the 200,000k is not so bad “in perspective” so we don’t need to overreact is flawed. The 200,000k is on the more favorable end of likely outcomes and is entirely based on us doing everything we can to stop the spread and increase our capacity to treat patients.

      To accomplish that overreacting is much better than underreacting.

      If you are arguing against what the experts are saying for the purposes of controlling a political narrative instead of controlling the virus then you are being a propagandist.

      And i don’t have time for your bullshit. So, I could give fuck-all what Hondo says about this.

      • Commissar says:

        And the 200,000k, is also a revised lower end estimate BECAUSE states and counties have started “overreacting”.

        If we hadn’t taken effective mitigation efforts the death toll low end estimates were around 1,000,000. Based on a 1% mortality and a 30% total infected.

        If we can sufficiently flatten the curve a 0.6% mortality and a 20% total infected is very possible bringing the number down to about 400,000 dead.

        That is why the 200,000 “a little perspective” number Hondo has latched onto requires “overreacting” to achieve.

        • A Proud Infidel®™ says:

          Wow. you have a LOT of TARD in you!

          • Commissar says:

            Bless your heart, I didn’t expect you to keep up, it is not your fault, I used math.

            • Hondo says:

              Yeah, you used math. But it’s based on bad data.

              For starters, the number you’re using for the US population is off by roughly 10%. The US population is almost 330M – not the 300M you used in the above calculations.

              If you can’t even get that starting point right, well, the rest of your argument perforce isn’t sound.

              Retracted due to boneheaded brain-cramp while doing math mentally vice using a calculator. Oh well – unlike some, I never have considered myself infallible or omniscient.

              • LC says:

                I think he used the 330M number:

                330M * 30% infected * 1% mortality = 990K, or 1M.

                Had he used 300M, it would’ve been 900K.

                And the second equation was:
                330M * 20% infected * 0.6% = 396K, or 400K. Had he used 300M, it would’ve been 360K. But that’s probably irrelevant, right? 😉

                • Hondo says:

                  Well, that’s what I get for not using the calculator to verify mental calculations.

                  Mea culpa, Commissar. My error; your numbers are correct.

        • SFC D says:

          “And i don’t have time for your bullshit. So, I could give fuck-all what Hondo says about this”.

          Yet here you are. Overthinking and crying about what a virus is called and why it is called that.

          It’s a virus, that originated in China. Hence, China virus. Nothing racist or political in that.

          • Hondo says:

            Yeah, that’s kinda why Ebola is called “Ebola virus” (first documented cases were near the Ebola River in the Congo) and why the Marburg virus is called “Marburg virus” (it’s an African virus, but it was identified in Marburg, Germany).

            A fair number of viruses are named after either their location of origin or where they were first identified.

          • Hondo says:

            And here’s a compelling argument why we should indeed refer to this as this “2020 PRC pandemic”:

            https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-crisis-caused-by-decisions-chinese-government/

            Bottom line: Chinese governmental decisions in late 2019 and Jan 2020 very likely allowed what should have been a regional problem to instead become into a global pandemic. They’ve not been honest and open about what’s going on with the virus since at least then, and likely since even before that.

            • USMC Steve says:

              That and the fact that even though it is large, China is a crappy, inefficient third world shithole. The only thing they do well is kill off Chinamen. Hong Kong is the only functional part of that country.

          • timactual says:

            You lie! We know your innermost thoughts, even before you do. Your denials only prove your racism.

            QED

            “There, I’ve run circles round you, logically”.

      • 26Limabeans says:

        “And i don’t have time for your bullshit. So, I could give fuck-all what Hondo says about this”

        Seems you have plenty of time to comment
        about it ad nauseum on a daily if not hourly
        basis. TAH drives your day. Admit it.

        • Hondo says:

          “And i don’t have time for your bullshit. So, I could give fuck-all what Hondo says about this”

          The feeling is mutual, Commissar (AKA ‘Roo AKA Poodle AKA Seagull). I don’t have much use for mendacious jackasses.

          But it is sometimes entertaining to watch you bloviate at times – in a “look at the idiot/watch the train wreck” sense.

          • Commissar says:

            When are you going to give one of you Presidential family leisure travel updates, Hondo?

            You were so god damn concerned about how much the Obamas were wasting on travel during the eight years in the White House.

            When Donald exceeded that total all by his lonesome, in one year…

            Nothing but crickets from you.

            I once thought you were one of the reasonable ones on this forum.

            But you are just a hobbyist volunteer propagandist. I hope Poe at least gets paid for his bullshit.

            • Hondo says:

              Not even a good try at changing the subject, mendacious one. It was also clumsily transparent as well.

              Hey, we get it that you don’t like the POTUS. Continuing to harp on that single subject merely makes it clear you have nothing else to say.

            • SFC D says:

              “But you are just a hobbyist volunteer propagandist”.

              Do you ever read what you write? Or are you a professional propagandist?

              • HMCS(FMF) ret says:

                It’s what he was taught at Bezerkeley… no original thought, just regurgitate what was fed to him.

            • USMC Steve says:

              That would most likely be because Obama fucked off so much. The only good thing about that was that when he and his husband were OFO, they were not doing any damage to the country they sought to destroy. That horseshit about Trump is, like all the rest of your crap, inaccurate nonsense. You continue to be upset that in three years, Trump reversed almost all the damage that Homey the Klown did.

              • A Proud Infidel®™️ says:

                B. Hussein 0bama played golf instead of attending the funeral of a US Army Major General killed in Afghanistan.

                • SFC D says:

                  B. Hussein 0bama thought it was more important to attend a campaign function than face the music after Benghazi. But it’s ok, it was only a misunderstanding about a video after all. Susan Rice told me so.

      • USMC Steve says:

        Commissar, I saw your title and didn’t bother to read your drivel because I knew it was time out of my life wasted, and that I would not get back. Stop wasting our time.

        Orange Man Bad! Orange Man Bad!

        • Wilted Willy says:

          Steve, it is no use to respond to this left handed bed wetter. Just tell him to go back sucking on his mommies teat and take a nap!

          • Commissar says:

            What is wrong with being left handed?

            • timactual says:

              I am giving you the benefit of the doubt and I am assuming that was a joke.

              • Commissar says:

                Nope. Serious. Besides being accident prone.

                • Hondo says:

                  For starters: if you’re left-handed you’d best not reach for food using your dominant hand if you’re traveling in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, parts of South and Southeast Asia, Indonesia, or the southern Philippines. (smile)

                  • SFC D says:

                    Hondo, you’re assuming that he’s capable of wiping his own ass… or even finding it with both hands and a stripmap

      • 11B-Mailclerk says:

        You pissed away your credibility a long time ago, and demonstrated your malice all along the way.

        You reap as you have sown. Don’t like it? Mend your ways.

        • Commissar says:

          Malice?

          Snowflake.

          • Hondo says:

            Yes, malice. Publicly stating that you are “thankful” (your word, not mine) that Covid-19 preferentially causes fatalities in a group whose members largely oppose your political positions is evidence of malice towards those who don’t share your political positions.

            God forbid that you have any elderly relatives who might be afflicted with the disease. Even such an ass as yourself doesn’t deserve that – and neither do they.

            • Commissar says:

              That is not what I said.

              That is just your bullshit spin on what I said.

              • SFC D says:

                You have more spin cycles than the Maytag factory. You’ve said it, and then repeated it in slightly different words when called out on it. I believe you referred to it as “Karmic Justice”.

                • Commissar says:

                  Yeah, and when I was talking about Karmic Justice it was in a specific context about specific consequences.

                  Not the same as the spin you snowflakes are crying about.

                  • Hondo says:

                    On 11 March 2020, at 1:32PM, the following comment was posted to a another article here at TAH (emphasis added).

                    I didn’t support Obamacare. I thought it was a cop out. Giving republicans what they wanted back in the 80s and calling it a win in 2010.

                    We need genuine universal healthcare.

                    And this virus is going to teach us a hard lesson as to why.

                    Thankfully it will disproportionally kill off the demographic that most opposes universal healthcare, despite the fact most of them are already on Medicaid or Medicare.

                    Karma is a bitch.

                    The person posting that comment was you, Commissar. Here’s the link proving those are your words:

                    https://valorguardians.com/blog/?p=96866#comment-3279483

                    Other of your previous comments here make it quite clear you’re talking about those in the “baby boom” generation and older – e.g., those born in 1964 and before. Here, you’ve plainly stated that you’re “thankful” (your word above) that that demographic group will have more deaths due to Covid-19 than other demographic groups. And you’ve clearly indicated why you’re thankful: because that group generally opposes specific policies you desire to see implemented in the US. All of that is crystal clear in your comment above to anyone who can read standard English.

                    You wrote it; you own it. But instead of having the guts to stand by what you wrote, you’ve repeatedly denied it means what it says in plain English: that you are “thankful” that those with whom you politically disagree will be disproportionately killed off by Covid-19.

                    Quit p!ssing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. We can tell the difference.

                    • The Other Whitey says:

                      Lars wants people of opposing political views to die, and yet he has the balls to call other people fascists.

                    • A Proud Infidel®™ says:

                      Yeah TOW, psychological projection!

                    • SFC D says:

                      I thought that wanting the opposition to die was a core tenet of communism. Maybe my history books were incorrect in that.

              • The Other Whitey says:

                Lars: “I hope you all die.”

                Also Lars: “There’s nothing malicious about me saying I hope you all die.”

                • Commissar says:

                  Again, not what I said.

                  • The Other Whitey says:

                    Must I c&p quotes of what you said again? You have a history of saying things, then denying you said them.

                  • The Other Whitey says:

                    I see Hondo already did. See above. So yes, limpdick, you did in fact say that.

                    • Hondo says:

                      To be fair, Commissar didn’t actually wish death on all who don’t share his leftist political views. Rather, he merely said he was thankful that the 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus would kill more of his political opponents than those who agree with his political views.

                      Both are absolutely despicable opinions, but the former appears far worse than the latter.

            • Commissar says:

              Also, you just admitted that your position on Covid19 is a political opinion.

              Which is why your post above is bullshit.

              Maybe if you stopped trying to treat every crisis of our time as a difference of political opinion you will find we have much more aligned interests than you think we do.

              Stop politicizing science. Stop listening to your political propagandists instead of the experts.

              • HMCS(FMF) ret says:

                Where was the outrage when ManBearPig Al Gore started on his AGW crusade, Lars? Or little Greta?

                Give me a break… I guess you never read Rahm Emmaunel’s quote “Never let a crisis go to waste”?

                • Fyrfighter says:

                  Yeah Chief, stop politicizing “science” and admit that there’s 67 genders, and “transgenders” aren’t mentally ill, and AGW is real, and “it’s not a baby, just a clump of cells!”, I mean, we all KNOW which party politicizes “science”…

                  • LC says:

                    We never did get together, but once all this chaos is over, if you ever want to take a trip up towards Boulder, I’d point you towards the atmospheric research center there – they do public tours, and have exhibits on the science behind AGW. Take a look, and afterwards we can go mock the hippies in Boulder over a beer.

                    Personally, I find it harder to dismiss something when it’s less abstract. I used to have a friend who was one of those crazy sorts who was anti-military and believed that terrorists just needed some love. I had her come for dinner once with a buddy who’d just gotten off a human trafficking rotation in the FBI, and it challenged her misconceptions about how everyone is just ‘good’. I hope talking with actual scientists and seeing how they do they work might similarly challenge yours about climate change.

                    • Fyrfighter says:

                      LC, I generally get hives when I go near the peoples republic, but I think a tour of the research center would be very interesting. And mocking hippies over beer is ALWAYS a good time (especially when my wife isn’t yelling at me for it)

              • Hondo says:

                Reminding everyone that we are now in the midst of a worldwide pandemic because the PRC tried to cover up the existence of a new, deadly, and highly contagious virus until containment was no longer possible is hardly “playing politics” when it just happens to be the truth. Quit trying to deny reality.

                • A Proud Infidel®™ says:

                  “Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
                  Open your eyes, look up to the shy and see…”

                  From “Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen

                  Maybe, JUST MAYBE Lars might one day awaken and break away from his brainwashing…

              • Honor and Courage says:

                The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.
                Dr. Charles Lieber, 60, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University, was arrested this morning and charged by criminal complaint with one count of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement. Lieber will appear this afternoon before Magistrate Judge Marianne B. Bowler in federal court in Boston, Massachusetts.
                Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy. Ye is currently in China.
                Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on Dec. 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged by criminal complaint with attempting to smuggle 21 vials of biological research to China. On Jan. 21, 2020, Zheng was indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the United States and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements. He has been detained since Dec. 30, 2019.
                Dr. Charles Lieber
                According to court documents, since 2008, Dr. Lieber who has served as the Principal Investigator of the Lieber Research Group at Harvard University, which specialized in the area of nanoscience, has received more than $15,000,000 in grant funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Department of Defense (DOD). These grants require the disclosure of significant foreign financial conflicts of interest, including financial support from foreign governments or foreign entities. Unbeknownst to Harvard University beginning in 2011, Lieber became a “Strategic Scientist” at Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in China and was a contractual participant in China’s Thousand Talents Plan from in or about 2012 to 2017. China’s Thousand Talents Plan is one of the most prominent Chinese Talent recruit plans that are designed to attract, recruit, and cultivate high-level scientific talent in furtherance of China’s scientific development, economic prosperity and national security. These talent programs seek to lure Chinese overseas talent and foreign experts to bring their knowledge and experience to China and reward individuals for stealing proprietary information. Under the terms of Lieber’s three-year Thousand Talents contract, WUT paid Lieber $50,000 USD per month, living expenses of up to 1,000,000 Chinese Yuan (approximately $158,000 USD at the time) and awarded him more than $1.5 million to establish a research lab at WUT. In return, Lieber was obligated to work for WUT “not less than nine months a year” by “declaring international cooperation projects, cultivating young teachers and Ph.D. students, organizing international conference[s], applying for patents and publishing articles in the name of” WUT.
                The complaint alleges that in 2018 and 2019, Lieber lied about his involvement in the Thousand Talents Plan and affiliation with WUT. On or about, April 24, 2018, during an interview with investigators, Lieber stated that he was never asked to participate in the Thousand Talents Program, but he “wasn’t sure” how China categorized him. In November 2018, NIH inquired of Harvard whether Lieber had failed to disclose his then-suspected relationship with WUT and China’s Thousand Talents Plan. Lieber caused Harvard to falsely tell NIH that Lieber “had no formal association with WUT” after 2012, that “WUT continued to falsely exaggerate” his involvement with WUT in subsequent years, and that Lieber “is not and has never been a participant in” China’s Thousand Talents Plan.
                Yanqing Ye
                According to the indictment, Ye is a Lieutenant of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China and member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). On her J-1 visa application, Ye falsely identified herself as a “student” and lied about her ongoing military service at the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), a top military academy directed by the CCP. It is further alleged that while studying at Boston University’s (BU) Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biomedical Engineering from October 2017 to April 2019, Ye continued to work as a PLA Lieutenant completing numerous assignments from PLA officers such as conducting research, assessing U.S. military websites and sending U.S. documents and information to China.
                According to court documents, on April 20, 2019, federal officers interviewed Ye at Boston’s Logan International Airport. During the interview, it is alleged that Ye falsely claimed that she had minimal contact with two NUDT professors who were high-ranking PLA officers. However, a search of Ye’s electronic devices demonstrated that at the direction of one NUDT professor, who was a PLA Colonel, Ye had accessed U.S. military websites, researched U.S. military projects and compiled information for the PLA on two U.S. scientists with expertise in robotics and computer science. Furthermore, a review of a WeChat conversation revealed that Ye and the other PLA official from NUDT were collaborating on a research paper about a risk assessment model designed to decipher data for military applications. During the interview, Ye admitted that she held the rank of Lieutenant in the PLA and admitted she was a member of the CCP.
                Zaosong Zheng
                In August 2018, Zheng entered the United States on a J-1 visa and conducted cancer-cell research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston from Sept. 4, 2018, to Dec. 9, 2019. It is alleged that on Dec. 9, 2019, Zheng stole 21 vials of biological research and attempted to smuggle them out of the United States aboard a flight destined for China. Federal officers at Logan Airport discovered the vials hidden in a sock inside one of Zheng’s bags, and not properly packaged. It is alleged that initially, Zheng lied to officers about the contents of his luggage, but later admitted he had stolen the vials from a lab at Beth Israel. Zheng stated that he intended to bring the vials to China to use them to conduct research in his own laboratory and publish the results under his own name.
                The charge of making false, fictitious and fraudulent statements provides for a sentence of up to five years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. The charge of visa fraud provides for a sentence of up to 10 years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. The charge of acting as an agent of a foreign government provides for a sentence of up to 10 years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. The charge of conspiracy provides for a sentence of up to five years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. The charge of smuggling goods from the United States provides for a sentence of up to 10 years in prison, three years of supervised release and a fine of $250,000. Sentences are imposed by a federal district court judge based upon the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.
                Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers, United States Attorney Andrew E. Lelling; Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Boston Field Division Joseph R. Bonavolonta; Michael Denning, Director of Field Operations, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Boston Field Office; Leigh-Alistair Barzey, Special Agent in Charge of the Defense Criminal Investigative Service, Northeast Field Office; Philip Coyne, Special Agent in Charge of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General; and William Higgins, Special Agent in Charge of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Export Enforcement, Boston Field Office made the announcement. Assistant U.S. Attorneys B. Stephanie Siegmann, Jason Casey and Benjamin Tolkoff of Lelling’s National Security Unit are prosecuting these cases with the assistance of trial attorneys William Mackie and David Aaron at the National Security Division’s Counterintelligence and Export Control Section.
                The details contained in the charging documents are allegations. The defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.
                These case are part of the Department of Justice’s China Initiative, which reflects the strategic priority of countering Chinese national security threats and reinforces the President’s overall national security strategy. In addition to identifying and prosecuting those engaged in trade secret theft, hacking and economic espionage, the initiative will increase efforts to protect our critical infrastructure against external threats including foreign direct investment, supply chain threats and the foreign agents seeking to influence the American public and policymakers without proper registration.

                • 5th/77th FA says:

                  Yep, been bitching about this for months now. How much more evidence is required for people to be lieve that the Chinese Communist Government is NOT our friend and they have been aided and abetted by the domestic enemies of our Republic!

                  We use to HANG spies and traitors.

      • ArmyATC says:

        “At a time when we as a nation should be coming together to deal with this crisis…” “We are divided over bullshit political narratives coming out of the White House rather than united by the facts…”

        Do you bother reading what you write before hitting the “reply” button? Get off your fucking high horse. You completely dismiss the bullshit political narratives from Democrats in your rant. One example? That idiot Cuomo in New York. He has resisted any and all attempts to mitigate the spread of the virus outside New York City. he even called a quarantine an “act of war.” Cuomo is going to sue states like Rhode island who are attempting to stop the flow of possibly infected new Yorkers. So where’s this “coming together as a nation” you’re spouting about? It’s even more hypocritical coming from the person who said “Thankfully it will disproportionally kill off the demographic that most opposes universal healthcare, despite the fact most of them are already on Medicaid or Medicare.” How’s that coming together going, asshole?

        • Commissar says:

          Because the quarantine was a knee jerk political statement by Trump.

          None of his experts had recommended it.

          He did it to pain New York as the problem when the reality if them virus was nationwide already.

          And now do a know the quarantine was not recommended by his experts?

          Because the experts knew the virus was already nationwide.

          And the experts know that announcing a quarantine before you are ready to enforce it leads to a mass exodus of people trying to escape the quarantine zone before it goes in place.

          So you actually exacerbate the spread, assuming the area being quarantines is the actual source of the spread. Which is isn’t.

          The virus is called covid19.

          The only reason trump is calling it the “China” virus is political.

          There is no reason for this fight to be happening.

          It is entirely political. And it is entirely Trump and his supporters trying to have this fight.

          And he is doing it entirely to shift blame to the Chinese and avoid his own culpability in having failed to manage the crisis effectively.

          • A Proud Infidel®™️ says:

            You’re STILL pissed about getting fired from the local Sperm Bank for drinking on the job, aren’t you?

          • Fyrfighter says:

            the only reason is’t called Covid, and not China, Wuhan, or something similar is because the Director General of the World Health Organization is bought and paid for by the PRC, and covers for them whenever possible.

          • SFC D says:

            Nice rant. Except Trump really doesn’t need to “shift the blame” to the Chinese.

            They. Are. To. Blame.

          • Poetrooper says:

            The Japanese government is blaming it on the Chinese as well, those racist Nipponese bastards.

            • Fyrfighter says:

              Actually, from a historic standpoint, you’re not wrong Poe (i know it was intended as sarcasm)..

          • Ret_25X says:

            false. Not only false, but a lie as you know it is false and state it anyway.

            I had a low opinion of your intellect, now I can only question your ethical make up as well.

            Looks like you really are nothing but a spineless shill.

      • The Other Whitey says:

        For a guy with no time who doesn’t care, you sure spent a lot of time composing and typing that shit, Lars. The joke writes itself.

      • timactual says:

        “It is because people choosing to call it that are trying to politicize the issue.”

        As opposed to those non-partisan purely logical folks like yourself who are definitely NOT trying to politicize the evil, nasty, and incompetent things done by the arch-villain Trump (he who is responsible for all that is evil in the world).

        • SFC D says:

          Noooo, Nancy Pelosi would never stoop so low as to politicize a pandemic and fill a relief package with unrelated spending!

          • The Other Whitey says:

            She was telling people to attend public events and not worry about anything a few weeks ago. Are we to believe that the Speaker of the House found out about the Chinese Bat Flu from TV news or some shit?

  2. 5th/77th FA says:

    The seagull will be dropping by with some more empirical data to disprove everything you just posted Hondo. Those of us who respect, trust, and appreciate your research and postings say, Thank You. Thunderstixx may be disappointed that we are all not to become DOOOOOOOOOMMMED, but a plate of good brisket and a frosty drink will soothe that savage beast.

    We’ve all been dying since the minute we were born. When our time is up, it is up. I do hope that I do not meet my Maker because of a Communist Chinese Originated Viral Infection Disease from 2019, (COVID 19). I was really looking forward to being shot by a jealous husband at age 96.

    • Hondo says:

      The seagull will be dropping by . . . .

      Seagull? Who on earth are you talking about?

      Oh wait, I remember now: Fa’kheem.

    • Commissar says:

      I. Just laid my droppings…

      Right above your head.

      Look up..

      • A Proud Infidel®™ says:

        Your droppings are CHOCK FULL of TARD and Projection!

      • Poetrooper says:

        You just labeled them: Droppings.

        Well, at least you got that part right…

        • Hondo says:

          Seems to me that Commissar just admitted that his commentary here is, to be polite, guano.

          I wonder if he’ll deny making that statement in a few days, too.

          • Poetrooper says:

            BTW, Hondo, Lars conveniently (and typically) forgets that it is the COMMUNIST Chinese, trying to deflect blame from themselves, who have been trying to convince the world that the US military covertly started this pandemic.

            That insidious bit of treachery more than justifies the Commander in Chief calling this the Chinese virus.

            • Commissar says:

              I don’t forget that. It was idiotic.

              China failed early and catastrophically by trying to treat the virus as a political problem and not a public health problem early on.

              I don’t know why you think “whataboutisms” change a damn thing.

              Or why calling it the “China virus” serves any purpose besides political.

              While causing problems on the ground with attacks on Asians and Asian businesses here in the states.

              • SFC D says:

                One of my favorite things about calling it “China virus” is that it winds you up tighter than an 8-day clock.

                And that is a truly enjoyable sight sometimes.

              • Fyrfighter says:

                Actually, the only idiots that would attack Asians or Asian businesses are the same fools that blame Corona beer.. And most of them are either antifa types, or those that support them. While you constantly claim to the contrary, YOUR party is the one of racism. Always has been Always will!

              • timactual says:

                “I don’t know why….Or why calling it the “China virus” serves any purpose besides political.”

                Possibly the same reason a Philly cheese steak is called a Philly Cheese steak. Or why an Arabian horse is called an Arabian horse.

                I don’t know why insisting it NOT be called a China virus serves any purpose other than political.

                • Hondo says:

                  Bingo. Insisting that the virus be called something that doesn’t include the terms “China”, “PRC”, or “Wuhan” is simply an example of present-day Orwellian Newspeak.

                  Doing that hides the origin of the current pandemic: intentional decisions by members of the PRC’s government to withhold information about the virus during the early stages of the outbreak, and to allow widespread travel out of the affected region after person-to-person spread had been determined to be a likely form of transmission. The number of individuals who at some point departed the affected region after the virus had been identified is estimated to be up to 5M individuals.

                  China bears responsibility this pandemic. Hiding that fact is simply denying reality; denying that fact is the action of a fool.

              • The Other Whitey says:

                Lars, my Asian wife and in-laws would eat your thin-skinned PC-obsessed ass alive.

              • NHSparky says:

                Whaddya mean, “early on”?

                They’re still fucking doing it!

                Answer one question for me honestly, if you can–do you believe the infection and death figures coming out of China? Yes or no?

                • Hondo says:

                  Yep. Just checked the JHU Coronavirus map. China’s reported number of cases is within 1000 of what it was almost 2 weeks ago – and within 2,400 of what it was on 1 March.

                  If anyone buys those numbers, hey: I’ve got a great deal for you on this bridge I’ve got for sale . . . . (smile)

              • USMC Steve says:

                Sorry to tell you this you stupid asswipe, but the Chinks have not one, but two biological warfare research centers in that province. And there are a number of reliable indications as well as valid intel that this was indeed a military development, but not from us. The Chinks did it. For crying out loud, pull your head out of your ass. The stupidity is starting to grind on all the normal people.

                • Honor and Courage says:

                  Want some real answers Google
                  DR. Charles Leiber from Harvard University. PS. My wife is from Nanjing and she calls it the Wuhan Virus. 400,000 cell phone have been shut off in that area.

            • Commissar says:

              Oh, wait.

              I was talking to Poe.

              I don’t expect anything but propaganda from you anyway.

          • Commissar says:

            It was intentional. That is why I made the reference of “above your head” and “look up”.

            I am a seagull after all.

            • Poetrooper says:

              “It was intentional.”

              And that’s why you get no respect here, Lars–you quite intentionally say things that leave you wide open to ridicule.

              That’s the mark of a clueless fool, not the clever wordsmith you fashion yourself to be.

            • Hondo says:

              No sh!t?!? Really?!

              Yes, that was sarcasm. And yes, the pun was intentional.

            • rgr769 says:

              I thought you were a commie cuttlefish. When did you change your spirit animal? Oh, I guess your sexual orientation is Two Spirit.

      • SFC D says:

        Commissar, if you looked up, you’d be staring straight into your large intestine.

  3. 2banana says:

    The destruction of the US economy with 30 million unemployed, hundred of thousands of businesses bankrupted and the collapse of tax receipts that will bankrupt cities,
    counties an states…

    Was the “cure” worse than the disease?

  4. LC says:

    Specifically, many are IMO hugely overreacting;

    Under current mitigation strategies, Covid-19 is projected to cause perhaps 220,000 deaths. Now, a US death toll of 220,000 seems huge and horrible. But over 30,000 die each year on US highways; almost no one bats an eye.

    What are the ‘overreactions’ to which you refer? Because if those are the same mitigation strategies that states have employed, that’s why the estimates are only 220K (or, 80K-220K, since that’s what I’ve seen). Without them, per the President’s own words, they were 2.2 million.

    Just to put that latter number into perspective, if we were to say that happened over a six-month period, that’d be over 12K a day, or 4x a 9/11-level loss every day for six months. Or for a comparison more apt for this site, that’s over 5x as many Americans as were lost in WW2. That’s why the mitigation strategies aren’t an over-reaction, but rather sensible steps to limit the chaos that would come from such a catastrophe.

    I don’t know of anyone claiming this is the end of the world, but most people will know someone who dies. Virtually everyone will know someone who is sick, possibly very sick. And even some of those who recover will have long-lasting effects, it seems. How many people know someone who died from the flu last season? Or in a car accident last summer? A whole lot less. So collectively, this hits people hard because everyone will be impacted in some way.

    Some additional perspective, then, is that the majority of America hasn’t experienced a deadly pandemic in any way, and even those who remember the two flu strains you mention recognize they were over 50 years ago. This will have long-lasting effects, for better and worse.

    • Hondo says:

      (sigh) So much irrelevancy, so little time tonight. I’ll reply to this tomorrow morning.

    • 26Limabeans says:

      “Some additional perspective”

      There are zero cases in Aroostook County Maine.
      Lots of elderly veterans retired there after
      Loring AFB closed. Presque Isle has a major
      airport with daily flights to Newark.
      Also a large hospital.

      You won’t hear about that in the news though.
      But don’t get discouraged, the news media is
      leaving no stone unturned to find one.
      Even a false positive will give them hope.

      In the mean time everything is closed just
      like the rest of the country.
      Except gun shops. Guvnah Mills got slapped
      when she tried to close them.

    • Hondo says:

      Here’s the reply I promised.

      What part of “under current mitigation strategies” above is unclear, LC?

      You are correct in saying that the Covid-19 death toll was projected to be about 10x higher without any mitigation being implemented. However, mitigation measures are being implemented – and I clearly noted that fact in the article above. Did you really have a point in discussing the irrelevant non-mitigation scenario, other than for it to serve as a straw man for your argument?

      The death toll for normal seasonal flu would also be many times higher each year without current mitigation measures (e.g., available voluntary flu vaccinations). I didn’t bother to mention that point in the article because it’s pretty damn obvious to anyone with 3 or more working brain cells – and is also irrelevant, just like your straw man “what could have been” scenario involving Covid-19 sans mitigation. Why? Both are irrelevant because neither is anywhere close to reality.

      But let’s look at your straw man “doomsday scenario” anyway. FWIW: the 1919 Influenza pandemic is estimated to have caused about 675,000 deaths in the US – at a time when the US population was substantially less than 1/3 of what it is today (104.7M vice today’s approx 330M). That works out to a mortality rate of just under 645 per 100,000 population. Under your now-irrelevant, straw man scenario above (e.g., 2.2M deaths due to Covid-19, or about 10x what’s currently projected), we’d see a mortality rate of 668 per 100,000 population.

      Not much difference, is there? And don’t forget: the 1919 Influenza pandemic was unusual in that it was far more deadly among young and healthy adults than the normal flu (or Covid-19, for that matter), so for that reason alone it had a greater relative impact on US society.

      The 1919 pandemic didn’t destroy US society. I strongly doubt that a similar shock would do so today.

      The “overreactions” I’m referring to are the media-fueled panic behavior we’ve all seen: people buying huge quantities of TP, paper towels, eggs, milk, fresh produce, etc . . . . Though that may be slacking a bit, that happened (and continues to happen to some degree) IMO simply because the 24/7/365 media sensationalized harping has has people panicked and convinced that “The sky is falling omigawd I have to do something NOW!” Stocking up on massive quantities of most of those items is simply a media-driven panic reaction.

      I agree that many of the harsher, more painful mitigation strategies should likely have been implemented earlier – as the mayor of New Orleans is now finding out the hard way. She had the authority to ban public gatherings in late February, which would have effectively cancelled Mardi Gras this year – and if I recall correctly there was at least some discussion that she should do exactly that because of Covid-19. She elected not to do so, and now apparently New Orleans is getting hammered. Similarly, Florida’s governor IMO should have closed public beaches in his state at least a week before he did so (and possibly 2 weeks or more earlier). In both cases that led to a spread to other areas via people returning from each location to their normal homes. We should have instituted mandatory quarantine measures for anyone returning from China and any other countries with known Covid-19 cases long ago, even if those on the political left would have screamed.

      Unfortunately, hindsight is 20/20; foresight, not so much.

      As for “most people will know someone who dies” – hell, I’m not even sure that’s true if Covid-19 fatalities total 220,000 unless you use an unusually broad definition of “know somebody”. Have met someone sometime during their lifetime who dies from Covid-19? Probably. But actually have enough recurring contact with them to say you knew the individual? Not sure about that. Most people don’t equate “know someone” with “yeah, I met them two or three times”.

      Let’s look at the numbers. 220k fatalities in a population of 330,000,000 is a mortality rate of 66.67 per 100,000 – or 1 in 1,500. This is a simple binomial probability problem; here, each individual you know represents as an independent binomial trial, p=1/1500, and P(0) is the probability you know zero people who are fatalities. Under those conditions, from iterating a binomial statistics calculator with p=1/1500, it appears that one would have to know 1040 or more people to have a 50+% chance of knowing a Covid-19 fatality.

      I likely have met a few thousand persons in my lifetime – but I don’t really know the large majority of them. People I currently know, even just casually? I’d say that’s less than 1,000 individuals; I’d guess that’s true for most people.

      Yeah, Covid-19 is serious; no one should take it likely. It will be somewhere between bad and very bad, but it won’t be anywhere close to a world-ending catastrophe.

      But IMO shutting down the world indefinitely isn’t a viable strategy to deal with it, either – and we appear to be heading that way. And I have no desire for my children and grandchildren to experience firsthand Great Depression 2.0; and exactly that is IMO a distinct possibility if we mishandle this one badly enough.

      • 11B-Mailclerk says:

        This stuff has been loose here since December. Where are all the bodies?

        It is widely infectious, demonstrably.

        Many folks who get it show little to no symptoms. This may be the majority of cases.

        It -cannot- be 5% lethal or we would be hip deep in dead bodies, right now. Even at 1%, there would be -lots- more.

        Many folks who are in this professionally have vested interests in “worst case” alarm. They dont get big budgets and/or emergency authority for typical flu years. No one thanks the guy who correctly says “not that big a deal”.

        Yup. This is an infectious bug. Nope. Nowhere near as deadly as 1918, or even 1957. Pretty much everyone will get it, sooner or later, 99+% of them will survive. That may even turn out to be 99.9+% or even another 9.

        First cases in China were likely in October 2019. It was known to be active in November 2019, when the ChiComs couldn’t hide it. Does anyone think there was no spread in November, direct from China to here? Seriously? From all those flights out of one of their big cities?

        Might we have done a little better paying attention to that, had not some assholes been playing “on no you didn’t want he election!” Via impeachment?

        Blood on those hands, folks. And no, this wont be memory-holed.

        Fucking up our economy is going to do more real long-term damage than this bug. That is the goal, and why certain folks keep shrieking about how much more central control they want of things. Because they want our free market -gone-, because it is in the way of their idiot-god Marx.

        • Fyrfighter says:

          We had a spike in respiratory illness of unknown origin back in December-January, some that were rapidly fatal, with symptoms that we now know are positive for Covid. At the time, the hospitals were just scratching their heads, saying they didn’t know. I’d have to believe that there’s a reasonable chance that it was Covid.. And if so, the curve is already significantly flatter than expected, considering the currently accepted rate of spread, those cases that we transported, as well as the ones we didn’t would be a significant portion of the population.. Only time will tell about the curve, and as to what we were dealing with back then, we’ll probably never know, but it seems a very reasonable possibility that it was the same crap.

          • SFC D says:

            Had the same thing in my area, I missed 5 days of work with an unknown upper respiratory issue. Was it Covid? Who the fuck knows. Too late to get tested.

            • LC says:

              Too late to get tested.

              The FDA approved a 2-minute antibody test the other day. Hopefully it’ll be available soon. That should register that you were exposed. There’s a lot of talk about using this to find out who has immunity, and thus can return to work.

              • Hondo says:

                IMO, good luck with getting that test run to see if you already had Covid-19 in the past any time soon.

                If you’re talking about Bodysphere’s newly-approved test, they say they plan to ship 5 million kits “in the next few weeks”.

                The test is currently in emergency use. I’d guess diagnostic testing for those showing symptoms will likely use all available kits from current/past production for at least the next 2-3 weeks – and maybe far longer than that. First responders and medical professionals might be exceptions.

                I hope I’m wrong. But there’s always a ramp-up period necessary between small-scale and setting up for large-scale production of something new.

                • Fyrfighter says:

                  In Colorado, even First Responders are not being tested unless we show symptoms.

                  • Hondo says:

                    I’d guess that might change as the test becomes somewhat more readily available, Fyrfighter. But I’d also guess it will be weeks if not months before elective testing is available to the general public. And I’d also guess there’s a good chance it won’t be covered by insurance – and will be kinda pricey.

                    • Fyrfighter says:

                      I agree Hondo, especially if the antibody testing shows effectiveness, and becomes widespread, that’ll be the best one to go into widespread use for Responders / Medical folks, as it’ll not only show who has it, but who had it, and now has some immunity.
                      Obviously the more widespread testing becomes, the better picture we’ll have of actual numbers, instead of the current method of guessing at total number infected.

          • ArmyATC says:

            The wife and I both had that just before the new year. I was feverish, ached all over, chest tight and hurt like hell, and thought I was going to hack out a lung. It took me most of January to get over it. Was it Covid? I don’t know, but it certainly sounds like it. Most likely no way to tell now.

          • LC says:

            The (in my opinion) strong data suggesting that it wasn’t here earlier is that that leaves zero plausible explanation for the exponential uptick in deaths in NY, LA and elsewhere.

            I’d love to believe it’s been here, many have been infected, and it all passed under the radar.. but that goes against the obvious data to the contrary. A few scattered respiratory-related deaths in the winter months are in the noise against the very strong signal we’re seeing from known outbreak spots now.

            Also, we should know if that’s the case in the near future once they start doing antibody tests. If people were exposed and survived in large numbers, they’ll have antibodies.

          • The Other Whitey says:

            I came down with a nasty sinus/upper respiratory bug at the beginning of March that knocked me on my ass for days, then fluctuated, then knocked me on my ass for a couple more before going away. Still not sure exactly what it was, as the progression was unlike any disease I’ve suffered before, and I still have a lingering cough nearly a month later. I honestly kinda wonder if it might have been the current boogeyman bug. Either way, I’m happy to report that I managed to avoid transmitting it to anyone via some regular common sense. My wife being in the “nesting” stage of pregnancy probably didn’t hurt, either.

        • rgr769 says:

          I think your points are well taken. As far as the true mortality rate for this disease, there is a simple reason it cannot be determined–simple arithmetic. To calculate the true mortality rate in any country, one needs to know the total number of people infected in that nation. That is the denominator of the fraction. Then one takes the number of confirmed deaths from the virus as the numerator. Dividing the lower number by the higher gives the death rate. There is no way to know how many people here, let alone in China, have been infected with this virus. Therefore, all these supposed death rates are nothing more than guesswork. We also know that many who are carrying the virus have no symptoms or very mild ones and will likely never be tested. So, without reliable numbers of those infected anywhere, how can we ever calculate the death rate with any degree of reliability?

          • Poetrooper says:

            And to further complicate the matter, how many elderly who die during the pandemic period from conditions that would have killed them anyway will be added to the COVID-19 tally?

            Almost three million Americans die each year, the majority of them elderly, the same population most likely to die from the virus. In the chaos and confusion of this pandemic, how many will erroneously be attributed to the virus.

            And that error will be deliberately compounded if there are any emergency reimbursement funds distributed based on the number of deaths processed through a given institution.

            Count on it…

            • Fyrfighter says:

              and Poe, even among those that are correctly attributed to the disease, how many would have died during the same time frame, from other causes, if they had not contracted the disease? Doesn’t make it easier for the families, but as you point out, it does skew the numbers.

      • USMC Steve says:

        Add to this that it is now known that the numbers here are being jacked up artificially. A number of popo and health care folks have revealed that if someone dies for any reason, and the postmortem shows they were exposed to the China virus, they are counted as having died from said China virus. In some cases they are listed as that even if there is no evidence that they were in contact with the virus. That is happening in the socialist blue states almost exclusively though.

      • rgr769 says:

        The primary reason we have over 200,000 cases at this point is because we allowed over 750,000 Chinese to fly into this country from mainland China during December, January, and February.

  5. HMCS(FMF) ret says:

    OT – other countries in Europe are rejecting medical items from China:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52092395?

    • A Proud Infidel®™ says:

      Let’s not forget that the Chicoms have been selling faulty test kits out the wazoo!

      • Cameron says:

        Genius!

      • Roh-Dog says:

        That was worth every moment, esp AJ in the elevator.

        • Ret_25X says:

          I think the video sums up the situation well….LMAO

          • Ret_25X says:

            Here is a video that presents quite a bit of data and tries to make sense of decision making based on the data.

            Some good points, some I’m not sure what I think….ymmv, but the data is presented in a way that might cause deeper thought on the subject.

            One topic I’ve been thinking a lot about is how to differentiate between COVID being a present condition and COVID being the cause of death. This is particularly interesting to think on when the age ranges of victims is considered….

            As with everything else, the truth is complex and there is no simple solution at hand. Options may simply range from “bad” to “worse”…

            • Ret_25X says:

              one more video…for context, the person being interviewed is an ACTUAL expert.

              Note how he backs up much of what the President and the state Governors are doing…it really does expose Lars’ lies.

              While I’m not a big fan of Shapiro, I appreciate his questions and allowing the Dr to speak.

  6. Slow Joe says:

    So, was it really bat soup?

    I can’t believe someone would eat bat soup.

    • Fyrfighter says:

      Having my family sponsor a Cambodian family when I was a kid, it became apparent to me that Asians will eat ANYTHING…And in many cases, the weirder and worse smelling, the better…
      Kimchee
      Fish sauce
      Black eggs
      squid ink
      etc….

      • timactual says:

        I have gotten as far as the kimchee and fish sauce. Not bad, actually. The rest I think I will pass on.

        Then again, those that eat headcheese and scrapple shouldn’t throw stones.

        • Fyrfighter says:

          Yeah,

          I’ll do fish sauce, and wife loves scrapple.. but that’s really just sausage with cornmeal in it…

          As to Hondo below, yeah, Durian is just foul!

          • timactual says:

            Speaking of sausage, the Chinese also make sausage. Given the fact that they already eat every part of the animal(s), what is left to put in their sausage?

            The imagination screams. The mind boggles. The gorge rises. Cthulhu smiles.

            What monster is the Jimmy Dean of Chinese breakfast sausage?

      • Hondo says:

        Don’t forget durian – which purportedly smells so bad it’s been banned from some hotels and public transportation systems in SE Asia. (smile)

    • Mason says:

      Look up the three squeaks meal. Newborn mice eaten alive. Squeak once when you pick them up, once when you dip them in the sauce, and once when you bite into them. They do some weird shit over there.

    • 26Limabeans says:

      My brother used to travel there on business.
      Often had to dine with them to close the deal.
      He once ate “Bull cock” and occasionally gets
      sick just remembering it.

      • timactual says:

        I used to think those stories were BS until our neighbors, Chinese immigrants, took us to a local Chinese restaurant with real Chinese food. I managed to avoid the “Bull cock” (thank God the menu had English translations) but couldn’t avoid some of the other dishes.

        Kind of reminds me of “Fear Factor”, except they (usually) cook the items. Maybe Joe Rogan stole the idea from a Chinese menu. Anyway, I empathize with your brother.

  7. Penguinman000 says:

    What I would like to see thrown into the discussion is the link between unemployment, drug abuse, violent crime, and overall mortality.

    For those so cavalierly saying “shut everything down” they haven’t considered the impact of job loss. And as usual, the people who can least afford it are going to be the ones most severely impacted.

    • Fyrfighter says:

      A number of people I know in other EMS systems have already seen a significant uptick in suicides

    • 11B-Mailclerk says:

      Feature not bug. Some folks want it all wrecked so they can put their preferred authoritarian/Marx insanity in place.

      Wrecking the US economy is a long-term goal of internal and external hostiles.

    • Hondo says:

      I’d be interested in seeing a good analysis along those lines as well.

      My gut feeling (which is only sometimes on-target) is that a major depression due to an economic shutdown might well cause as many or more excess deaths than unmitigated Covid-19. But numbers I’ve seen regarding the Great Depression don’t seem to bear that out; during the Great Depression, US life expectancy apparently increased.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2765209/

      • penguinman000 says:

        Very interesting read Hondo. I’m not academic so take this with a grain of salt, but I wonder about the integrity of their data.

        What specifically jumped out to me was the decrease in mortality of newborns during that time.

        Considering how many people were homeless and how births/deaths/marriages were recorded (family bibles and such) I’m not sure their data paints a complete picture. I’m sure there were significant portions of the population that never made it into the census or simply disappeared over time (without anyone noticing).

        Not saying the authors were academically dishonest, just saying I’m not sure how reliable population data is from that time period.

        Anyways, thanks again for an interesting read.

      • timactual says:

        Interesting. That would seem to imply that life expectancy should have been decreasing and mortality increasing over the last century or two, since economic prosperity has increased.

        Offhand, I am wondering if they accounted for the advent of antibiotics (and other medical advances) during that time.

    • timactual says:

      No worries, mate. All the “essential” people can work from home.

    • HMCS(FMF) ret says:

      Better read this… what we always knew was happening has been confirmed:

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

  8. Steve 1371 says:

    I believe I had and survived the Hong Kong Flu. I know I was extremely sick in Jan of 68. Very fuzzy memory of the last week of 68. I know that was a long time ago but a lot of things were happening at that time for me that are very fresh still in my memory.

    • rgr769 says:

      December of ‘68 is when I was sick with it.

    • timactual says:

      ” a lot of things were happening at that time for me that are very fresh still in my memory”

      Me too. I missed that flu, probably because I spent most of that time avoiding crowds and populated areas and maintaining an interval of at least six feet, and spending a lot of time outdoors with lots of fresh air and (mostly) sunshine.

  9. rgr769 says:

    Well, let’s not forget that over 250,000 people die in this country due to medical errors every year.

    • UpNorth says:

      Yeah, the estimates on medical mistakes and dead patients is anywhere from 200K to 500k per year. Of course, it’s difficult to track those errors, as the complainants can’t talk about it.

      And, my wife just heard from a friend of hers who had gone to the local Wally World. As she was going in, a woman and four teenagers were leaving. The teens, being “good kids” were running up to people and coughing in their faces and laughing as they ran away. Mom thought it was just hilarious, watching the denizens of the shallow end of the gene pool.
      I told her she ought to stroll right over to the sporting goods section and get a canister of pepper spray, it would come in handy for times like what she described.

  10. OWB says:

    One thing is now abundantly clear. What some folks declare as normal behavior others of us see as hysteria. Not saying that there are never circumstances worthy of hysteria, but very few. This isn’t one of them. Yet we are observing a multitude of it as well as the opposite extreme. Difficult to equate which is truly the more dangerous.

  11. Roh-Dog says:

    Blended strategies always work best, resource and time dependent.
    Exempli gratia; I’m at home, drinking blended staying the hell away from people, with a basement full of supplies, time to fuck off further-ly.

    Teabag Covid-19 in the facehole.

  12. Comm Center Rat says:

    To paraphrase Ben Franklin, the majority of Americans are dead at age 25 although they’re not buried until around 70.

    The economic, employment, and financial devastation resulting from this pandemic will be far worse than its relatively small death toll. If Americans were upended by the Great Recession a decade ago, then this Black Swan pandemic event will be catastrophic in its magnitude across the fruited plains.

    The cure is certainly worse than the disease for those who survive.

  13. Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

    a. 46M flu infections;
    b. 22M seeking medical assistance due to flu;
    c. 565k hospitalized due to flu; and
    d. 43k deaths attributable to flu.

    I believe 43,000 divided by 46,000,000 is actually .009347 or 0.01% mortality not .1% or 1 in 10,000 who will die.

    The corona virus worldwide currently stands at 876,769 reported cases against 43,533 deaths or about 5% of those infected or 1 in 20 who will die…

    I would suggest the over reaction might in fact be somewhat warranted which is why we are seeing complete lockdowns in some areas except for essential businesses, which I am fortunately one at this time.

    I do agree that some people are losing their shit, I would suggest that is largely because our nation, along with the world, has never seen anything that kills 1 out of every 20 who get it on a massive scale of this nature.

    No one loses their shit over the flu because 1 in 10,000 are pretty good odds of survival…1 in 20…not so much.

    The data may prove yet that the infection rate versus the death rate is more inline with the flu, largely because testing has lagged so far behind the current reporting of who and how many are actually infected.

    Using the 100,000 deaths that Fauci reported over the weekend assumed 2 million to 2.2 million cases according to Fauci, which still falls in the 4-5% death toll range currently.

    There is ample reason to be concerned over this issue I believe.

    • Veritas Omnia Vincit says:

      forget my comment, you can delete it…too early to reply on my part and I shouldn’t have bothered…the math is off on a number of levels…time for caffeine.

      • Hondo says:

        Don’t feel bad, VOV. We all make mental math gaffes from time to time (see above for mine).

    • OWB says:

      No argument about needing to be concerned. Somewhere between some and most of us are. Certainly most of us around here are. Problem is that hysteria about the unknown isn’t productive.

      We have no idea how many people worldwide or locally have been infected. It could be millions more than we know about just in this country. Until we know that figure (which we never will), all the models and best guesses are rather meaningless. Use whatcha got for planning purposes? Sure. But, be aware that what we don’t know far exceeds what we do know.

      All just to say that the numbers are off. Way off simply because we don’t know who has been and who has not been infected. Reflected infection and death rates are necessarily higher than they should be just because we don’t have a real base number with which to make the calculations.

      Meanwhile, the sensible among us will continue to live our lives much as we always do – minimizing exposure to deadly things, being prepared to stay home for any number of reasons, and honing our skills in taking care of ourselves. No problem. Certainly nothing warranting hysteria.

  14. Firebase says:

    Are you people not reading your own headlines, right here on TAH? “Outbreak on Aircraft Carrier; 100 Sailors Test Positive” and “11 Veterans Dead at Soldiers Home.” These is not “business as usual,” folks.

    • OWB says:

      Most of us really do know that. Medically, it may not be all that different from medical precedence but knowingly destroying the economy in general and specifically barring folks from earning paychecks has never been done before on this scale.

      Sure, it’s scary for a bunch of folks for a bunch of legitimate reasons. Just because most of us here are not running around screaming “The sky is falling,” does not mean we are not concerned.

      • Firebase says:

        On the flip side of your argument, there are many shouting “the sky is falling!” over the economic slowdown. Or, as you put it, “destroying the economy.” That’s not quite true either, thanks in good part to computers and the Internet.

        I’m still able to order things online and get prompt deliveries via Amazon, and the same is true from many brick & mortar businesses. Movie theaters may be shuttered, but it’s still possible to watch recent movies via the many streaming services, and the studios are moving up release dates, via streaming. They still make money. I’m still able to purchase groceries at numerous brick & mortar stores in my neighborhood.

        • 11B-Mailclerk says:

          There are a shitload of people I know that are out on their asses. They have no income, bupkis.

          This is over-reaction, and is doing real and permanent damage to folks. Those folks are worth of protection form economic stupidity, as well as from the ChiCom’s botched handling of basic health care.

          • Firebase says:

            Of course these people are “worthy of protection,” which is why the government is increasing the amount of their Unemployment checks, and will be sending $1,200 to most citizens in the US. Yeah, twelve hundred bucks is “bupkis,” so is the $600 monthly bump in Unemployment dollars, but bupkis is better than being dead. As of right now the number of Americans who’ve died from the virus is 5,000, and counting.

            I’ve been making daily trips to the various grocery stores in my neighborhood, and have seen “Help Wanted” signs on their doors. These stores, without exception, are open; they’re staffed and stocked with goods. It’s not the Apocalypse yet, folks.

    • Poetrooper says:

      “This is not business as usual.”

      Neither is a firefight–and many here at TAH can tell you that getting hysterical in a firefight is very counterproductive, not just for you but for those depending on you.

      I think our common military backgrounds tend to have something to do with our heightened perception of the danger of hysteria under stress and thus our greater disdain for it.

      • Firebase says:

        What about when pastors refuse to shut down their mega-churches, and preach to thousands of tightly packed parishioners on a Sunday? Or when scores of Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn huddle together for prayer a few times a day, despite the fact that their neighborhood has been one of the first coronavirus hot spots in America? Dozens of them have died already.

        In the current climate, might huddling together, praying for deliverance from the virus, be a more dangerous form of “hysteria”?

        • Poetrooper says:

          What the hell does that have to do with my comment?

          Your response sounds a bit hysterical…

          • Firebase says:

            Your response to mine sounds tone-deaf. One man’s definition of “hysteria” might be another man’s definition of taking sensible precautions.

            • Poetrooper says:

              Talk about tone deaf–I comment on why we here at TAH might be a bit more critical of what we deem to be hysteria and you respond with examples of people being foolish, not hysterical.

              Perhaps you don’t know what the term means.

              • Firebase says:

                The topic of this thread is “Covid-19: Some Perspective.” Correct?

                I was obliquely responding to your specific comment, but my response was directed towards the general topic and comments that others have been making. So don’t be a “Cutie-Pie” about it.

                • Poetrooper says:

                  “I was obliquely responding to your specific comment, but my response was directed towards the general topic and comments that others have been making. So don’t be a “Cutie-Pie” about it.”

                  Well of course it’s obviously ol’ Poe’s bad for not being able to decipher your obliquely illogical mish-mash of intentions.

                  “Cutie Pie?” Sheez!

                  • Firebase says:

                    In case you missed it, Trump directed that “Cutie Pie” term towards a snotty journalist the other day.

                    A few folks have injected the term “hysteria” into this thread about Covid-19. Basically, that trying to avoid contact with other people, sheltering in place, working from home, etc. is a “hysterical” response to this deadly outbreak, and compared it to getting hysterical in the midst of a firefight. Really? That’s your comparison? Because of our “common military background,” we don’t get fazed by the fact that 5000 Americans have died from this virus thus far.

                    • OWB says:

                      Again, with the accusations. First it was of not being concerned and now not being fazed by the death of our fellow citizens. Evidently we remain not hysterical enough for you.

                      btw, are you similarly fazed by traffic deaths, suicides, fatalities from the flu, appendicitis, or pick any number of causes of death?

                    • Poetrooper says:

                      “Because of our ‘common military background,’ we don’t get fazed by the fact that 5000 Americans have died from this virus thus far.”

                      I never said we don’t get “fazed” but you’re right, Firebase–I presumed too much in your case with regard to our “common military backgrounds” and our attitudes toward hysteria.

                      And you just keep proving me how wrong I was about you with each succeeding hysterical post.

        • SFC D says:

          If I had a pastor that continued to pack his church full on Sunday, despite the medical warnings and why that’s a bad idea, I’d be looking for a new church. I’m not a school-trained religious expert, but I’m pretty sure the Lord won’t be mad if you skip church for health and safety reasons reasons. YMMV.

        • timactual says:

          I believe those religious folks are just carrying on as usual, not hysterically reacting to the virus. Church services are held every Sunday. Devout Jews “huddle for prayer” daily, not just for the virus.

          • Firebase says:

            The fact that they’re just “carrying on as usual” has been the scary part. There was one mega-church pastor in Florida who was arrested for holding services in defiance of coronavirus restrictions. The Hassidic Jews in Brooklyn seem to have gotten the memo and are now practicing social distancing, but only after a number of them died from the virus. In Israel the cops have been actively arresting Hasidic Jews who are flaunting the restrictions. These folks know the virus is real and that the virus is potentially deadly. Carrying on in the face of that reality is a hysterical “anti-reaction” to common sense. The leftist president of Mexico has been ignoring all these precautions as well, and has been relying on his Catholic faith and religious “talismans” that he carries with him. Idiocy.

      • Commisar says:

        What are the hysterics you are talking about?

        Doing everything we can to slownthe spread so we don’t overwhelm our medical capacity?

        Is that the hysterical?

        • Firebase says:

          I asked the same question, and was accused of being “hysterical.” I’m guessing that “Poetrooper” must be some kind of an admin on this site, because suddenly I’m not seeing the button to reply to his last post. Since he brought up the fact that most of us here are former military, and was trying to compare the response of sheltering in place and working from home to being in a firefight. Well, if it’s military analogies he’s fishing for, how about imagining 5000 green body bags, laid out in neat rows where a battle is still taking place, and there’s a body of a dead American in every one of those bags. And the Graves Registration people and the Medics are preparing thousands more, because the battle isn’t over yet. Does a soldier react hysterically to that? Or does he make good and sure that he’s wearing a helmet and flak jacket, whether he’s out on patrol or not?

          • LC says:

            After a certain level of replies, you can’t add more – that’s not an admin thing, just a site thing. Simply pick the latest post above that and reply there, with an ‘@Poetrooper’ at the top – that seems the common approach.

            I think I can count on two fingers the number of times Poe and I have agreed over the years I’ve been here, but they don’t censor me.

            • Firebase says:

              Thanks for setting me straight on how it works. I’m just getting my “sea legs” on this site. How do I create a new entry without replying to a previous one?

              • Hondo says:

                Scroll to the bottom of comments and use the “Reply” button there. That should create a new “top-level” comment “thread” for the article on which you’re commenting.

          • timactual says:

            Not “analogies”—perspective. “When in danger, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout” is supposed to be humor, not instruction.

            By the by, has anyone thought about what we are going to do next year? The world, after all, will survive the Kung Flu this year. Are we going to shut the economy down every year?

            Speaking of analogies, what happens to a car battery when the alternator does not recharge it? You can start your car a few times, then the battery dies. If we react every year to the China virus by closing down the economy eventually we will starve. As the commercial says, “Pay me now, or pay me later”.

            • Firebase says:

              When my battery seems to be dying, I’ll call AAA, and they’ll bring me a new battery. The economy will recover; we’ve been through worse (so far, at least). But the dead will stay dead.

              The Mayor of New Orleans could have cancelled Mardi Gras, but she didn’t. Not economically feasible, right? Now she’ll have a few hundred dead citizens on her hands. Same with those Spring Breakers in Florida and Texas who partied on, despite knowing better, and now have the virus. Sadly, there are plenty of other examples.

    • NHSparky says:

      You obviously have never deployed on a submarine.

      First 10-14 days, everyone is sicker than shit, then we’re fine.

  15. nobunny says:

    Here’s my 2 cents worth, as someone who was in the medical biz and a microbiology nerd. A few points:

    I absolutely agree we are over-reacting, for all the reasons and data that Hondo gave.

    However, as to the hospitals’ status…

    As someone who has worked in multiple hospitals (from rural to Level 1 trauma) I can say with authority that hospitals operate with the bare-bones minimum staff most of the time – and usually less than minimum. Do more with less was the mantra. Just work harder! Save those pennies! And I’m guessing they were using JIT (just in time) supply policies, or something like it. No surplus.

    Even a slight increase in patient load will freak the nurses and doctors out – because they’re already spread too thin.

    And hospitals are not nimble. It takes several weeks to identify a need – closely controlled by the hospital’s penny pinchers – and then fill it. So on any day, hospitals are already short staffed because of this policy.

    If hospitals were managed by doctors and nurses, they’d have more than enough staff, but they’d probably be broke too.

    FWIW.

    • 11B-Mailclerk says:

      A close relative of mine is a nurse.

      You folks on the front line of this have my deep respect.

    • timactual says:

      Cutting medical costs got serious several decades ago. Hospitals did have surplus beds, etc. available but government mandated eliminating surpluses to cut costs. Hospitals were consolidated. That was also the era when managed health organizations, HMOs etc., became popular. A “Certificate of Need” was necessary to buy expensive equipment or build/expand hospitals.

      Like “just in time” inventory ordering in business, we are now seeing the drawbacks to the “cost-effectiveness” which became popular with management “experts” and finance types.

    • JACK SHIT says:

      Commissar does not know me.

    • Poetrooper says:

      Lars, I’m curious now that the FDA has approved use of the Chloroquine drugs to treat this virus, if you are still so cocksure that we need more controlled studies before it’s safe to do so. You sure were contemptuous of that moron Trump for publicly stating that these drugs might be effective.

      Now that the chloroquine regimens are demonstrably saving lives in New York and New Orleans, among many other places, are you still confident that Trump was just being an ignorant, anti-science buffoon and that we shouldn’t use these drugs until we’ve completed safety and efficacy studies?

      Or, as I strongly suspect, are you going to tell us you never said that?

      • LC says:

        We need controlled studies before we can say it’s effective, as there were some methodological shortcomings in the Raoult paper.  But people are demanding it, much like people are buying up toilet paper, and that does leave people who need the drug for on-label purposes in a bind.

        I’m all for allowing doctors who see potential benefit, and can weigh the side effects with their patient’s medical history, to prescribe it as a treatment. Especially given the possible ‘placebo’ effect people who take it might feel.  But there is a danger (which docs should be able to assess), and it’s not yet proven to help.

        If you have evidence that chloroquine regimens are demonstrably saving lives in NY and New Orleans, I’d love to see it.  Not anecdotal evidence, but sound statistical evidence. I sincerely hope it proves to have a positive effect – the more weapons we can bring to bear against this, the better.

        • Poetrooper says:

          “Not anecdotal evidence, but sound statistical evidence.”

          Well, gee, LC, I sure hope all those ER rooms in NYC and Nawlins don’t disappoint you by just going ahead and saving all those peoples’ lives “anecdotally” without waiting to set up controlled, double-blind studies, which would, of course, require them to withhold potentially lifesaving medications from possibly terminal patients acting as controls.

          What the hell is it with you guys fighting so hard against a makeshift workable solution to this crisis simply because every “i’ isn’t dotted and every “t” crossed? I assume you’re a vet and understand the term “field expediency” or as we used to call it in the infantry, “southern engineering,” meaning using whatever’s at hand to accomplish the mission.

          This silly insistence on formal studies and “sound statistical evidence” in the middle of a killer pandemic on a drug that’s been in use for a century and is considered by your beloved World Health Organization to be one of the safest drugs to use with the masses, makes you look ridiculously pompous and extremely foolish.

          I’d wager if it were you or someone you loved facing death from this virus, you wouldn’t be insisting that your medical team show you something besides “anecdotal” evidence before they administered the drug.

          Good grief! What insufferable arrogance. I’m beginning to suspect you’re a published academic, what with your intransigent insistence on peer-reviewed evidence in the middle of a global emergency.

          • LC says:

            Well, gee, LC, I sure hope all those ER rooms in NYC and Nawlins don’t disappoint you by just going ahead and saving all those peoples’ lives “anecdotally” without waiting to set up controlled, double-blind studies, which would, of course, require them to withhold potentially lifesaving medications from possibly terminal patients acting as controls.

            What part of this didn’t you understand:

            “I’m all for allowing doctors who see potential benefit, and can weigh the side effects with their patient’s medical history, to prescribe it as a treatment.”

            To be clear, let the doctors prescribe it. But you said it’s demonstrably saving lives, and the medical science isn’t yet in agreement with that statement.

            Good grief. What insufferable arrogance to think just because a President tweeted one flawed study that his alleged genius means he knows that some medicine will work without controlled testing.

            What’s next, we start pushing hospitals to put TV’s turned to Kenneth Copeland’s “Victory” channel where he claimed to heal people through the broadcast? Once again, I’m all for allowing doctors to do that if they so choose, but despite Copeland’s claims, I guarantee you it’s not ‘demonstrably saving lives’:

            https://www.newsweek.com/conservative-pastor-claims-he-healed-viewers-coronavirus-through-their-tv-screens-1492044

            • Poetrooper says:

              “Good grief. What insufferable arrogance to think just because a President tweeted one flawed study that his alleged genius means he knows that some medicine will work without controlled testing.”

              And therein lies the root of your resistance, LC: Orange Man Bad!!!

              Had Trump come out against the use of chloroquines, you and Lars would have been singing their praises and denouncing him for killing Americans with his ignorant, “anti-science” foot-dragging.

              And how very liberal (and unscientific) of you to drag out a non-sequitur like religious fervor and equate it to a common-sense argument.

              “Insufferable arrogance” indeed…

              • LC says:

                Nope; I don’t care one way or the other what Trump said. You seem to be embracing chloroquine because he did – if you’ve followed the actual news of the French study, you’d see that many medical professionals have pointed out flaws in it.

                Letting doctors do what they think is best is fine. Claiming that it iss effective without proof is not fine.

                I hope chloroquine proves useful here. But that hasn’t happened yet.

                • Hondo says:

                  I hope chloroquine proves useful here

                  Arguably, there has already been a 100 person trial that shows chloroquine useful. And that’s been known for about 6 weeks now.

                  https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/coronavirus-covid-19-choroquine-data/

                  No, it’s not a traditional “double-blind” medical trial. And yes, it’s early data – from China, whose veracity throughout the 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak has been questionable at best.

                  However, the original Chinese study is apparently supported by others, reviewed here:

                  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883944120303907

                  IMO we have a good enough indicator that chloroquine is beneficial in treating the virus to add the medicine as a second or third treatment in an emergency for those who are unresponsive to other drugs (if we have any that are known to be generally useful against the virus other than remdesivir, which similarly has been identified as of potential therapeutic use). And the current pandemic probably qualifies as such an emergency.

                  • LC says:

                    IMO we have a good enough indicator that chloroquine is beneficial in treating the virus …

                    I was unaware of the Cortegiani article, I agree that’s encouraging – and again, I’m all for doctor’s giving it to patients as they see fit. I was primarily thinking of the Raoult trial in France, where they had multiple issues – expected given the circumstances, but the flaws hardly let one claim that chloroquine ‘demonstrably’ saves lives.

                    To be clear, if I get sick, and my doctor recommends it, I’m all for it. But I still think the jury is out, even if we expect we know which way it’ll go based on articles like the one you posted.

                    • Hondo says:

                      But I still think the jury is out . . . .

                      I’d argue that the jury is in on whether or not chloroquine is of value in treating the we have enough data to know that chloroquine is useful in treating 2019 Wuhan Coronavirus. I think we know enough now to use it as part of therapy for same, given the current public health emergency.

                      I would agree, however, that the jury is still out on precisely how effective it is.

                  • timactual says:

                    ” And yes, it’s early data”

                    ALL the data about this outbreak is “early data”. It will take months, even years, for accurate statistics to be calculated. The whole world is improvising now.

                    Chloroquine. Any safety concerns about the use of this have been resolved decades ago.

                    What’s the plural of anecdote?—-Data. The only question is how many anecdotes you need.

                    Effectiveness? I will rely on the same clinical trials our ancestors used to discover the usefulness of aspirin. Shaman Ugmug, in the course of his pharmacological research, found that chewing on willow bark seems to have analgesic and anti-pyretic properties. Thus we inherited possibly the only drug never to have undergone clinical studies.

                    I believe colchicine also predates clinical studies.

                • Poetrooper says:

                  Nope, that’s a politically-based assumption on your part. I embraced chloroquine usage before Trump mentioned it. As I explained here the other day, that was because I not only took it over an extended period of time for malaria prophylaxis more than fifty years ago, but I also spent thirty-plus years in health care marketing and understand how widespread off-label prescribing already is.

                  For instance, some of our most widely used pain treatments are anti-depressant drugs, prescribed off-label for decades for that purpose, even though such drugs carry risks.

                  As soon as Trump floated the idea of using chloroquines, the media immediately used it as another means to bash him, and Lars parroted their criticisms here at TAH, insisting chloroquines were unsafe to use without further lengthy studies.

                  I felt that the media criticism was hurting the virus fight because it had the potential to intimidate the medical community into ignoring a probably effective and lifesaving drug regimen.

                  In the present moment, your and their insistence on formal substantiation is academic nonsense. What I’ve been arguing is that we use what we have to stop the dying then deal with the scientific studies when lives aren’t on the line.

                  As an old buddy of mine has long said, “Don’t worry about the mule goin’ lame, just load the damned wagon.”

                  • Poetrooper says:

                    My response is to LC, not you, Hondo.

                  • LC says:

                    Then I apologize – I thought your embrace of it was due to POTUS’s tweeting about it, and not previous experience. That and your claim that it’s demonstrably saving lives, which simply isn’t true at the moment. That people are being given it, and recovering, isn’t proof yet of the drug’s effect, though I do remain hopeful.

                    My insistence on formal evidence is because that’s what’s required to establish a causal relationship between positive patient outcomes and the drug. We are in agreement that doctors should be free to use it to treat their patients, though.

                    • Poetrooper says:

                      There is no need for an apology–we simply look at things from a different perspective and that’s fine even though the discussion gets a bit spirited from time to time.

                      As to politics and medicine, you will probably find my next comment at the end of the main thread controversial.

                      Heh…

  16. nobunny says:

    I think this is the most I have ever said on this website.

    A CBS video that features schmaltz? Shocker.

    Re: Equipment shortages – hospital’s fault. There is/was a policy of no surplus supplies. Surplus = waste. Once the supply people realize there’s something big coming, it’s too late. Everyone jumps on the “Uh-oh, we need more than this time last year.” train.

    You can’t rely on “the government”. For anything.

    Re: Staffing – hospital management’s fault. $$$$$$

    Re: Death – it happens. every. day. For a litany of reasons. For stupid reasons. For good (or bad) reasons. This is an addition to what they see every day, especially in a place where people live in cramped living conditions. All Chicago area hospitals are high volume hospitals, so, yeah number wise they’ll see more.

    In the winter, surprising numbers of babies start dying due to RSV. Older people start dying due to pneumonia, caused by whatever. Springtime, suicides go up. May/June overly excited high school seniors start dying in droves due to “I’m about to graduate!” exuberance (crazy driving, drunk or otherwise.) Summer – drownings and burns. Anyone in emergency healthcare could go on for what each month brings.

    I am not waving this away. But we will adapt. Professionals freaking out and getting weepy helps no one.

  17. nobunny says:

    If I could, I’d like to expand on healthcare. It’s all a matter of perspective. For example, and this has been repeated for any number of things, someone asked me “Are febrile seizures (seizures – typically in children – caused by a sudden spike in fever) rare?” My knee-jerk response was “No, we see them all the time.” I thought twice, and said hang on. Statistically, they are pretty darn rare. But this is why we see people. We don’t see people who are just fine, “She turned me into a newt… I got better.” My point is, hospitals see dying people. Not the VAST MAJORITY of people who are fine. It’s what they do. Is rare? No (not to us), we see it every day.

  18. marinedad61 says:

    I’m actually curious as to whether our current terrain and climate
    will result in MORE Stolen Valor and Military Phony articles (or less).

    IMHO, I would think MORE….. because:
    MORE phonies will now be toiling on the keyboard or cellphone gorilla glass:
    More dumb Military Phony and Stolen Valor stories and claims.
    More photos uploaded.
    More readers and followers reading and seeing all this, and
    More people online REPORTING this new rush of phonies.

    Current events have been good for some businesses,
    and I believe they can be good for this website as well.

    Could be fun… a respite from what April 2020 brings. 🙂

  19. A Proud Infidel®™ says:

    My youngest Sister is currently a practicing CRNA. She’s also the last one to ever panic about something and She tells ME to take this virus seriously. Not hunker down with a Prepper stash, but DO follow the six foot rule in public, use the sanitizer and wash more regularly than usual because there is still a lot of shit that’s still unknown about this Chinese Bat Virus. It might not even phase me while it kills my neighbor or coworker the same age, hit someone younger and destroy their lungs. I’m not going extreme on either side, but I think that we DO need to take some precautions and as far as those saying “Government Overreach” I’s respectfully say to search for signs posted during the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

  20. Poetrooper says:

    It is regrettable that the Democrats have seized upon this pandemic as a “useful” crisis and have their media allies doing their dishonest best to portray Trump as the incompetent villain.

    Yet their own complicity is ignored or hidden. For instance, this article from FRONTPAGE which provides some insight into how the New York City Health Department’s leftist focus on social justice rather than their medical mission, left them ill-prepared to deal with the crisis that has now consumed them.

    Read it and weep at just one more (but this time tragic) example of wrong-headed, leftist ineptitude:

    https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/04/identity-politics-lied-new-yorkers-died-daniel-greenfield/

    • 5th/77th FA says:

      These effing politicians don’t care how many citizens they kill with their stupidity. The dead citizens are still gonna vote for them.

      Seagull showing up with more empirical data to prove you wrong in 5.4.3.2…

      • LC says:

        I’m considered a stupid leftie here, and I’ll wholeheartedly agree that having idiots in important offices, especially idiots who are either ignorant or spout pseudoscientific nonsense, is a horrible thing.

        I don’t think that’s why New York’s cases have skyrocketed -it’s probably more population density, like LA- but it certainly doesn’t help, and we should hold people to a higher standard.

        And I’m glad you said ‘effing politicians’ and not ‘effing democrat politicians’, since this is a cross-party issue. Kemp (GA Gov) admitted yesterday that he didn’t know asymptomatic people could spread the virus, something which has been known for a while. And as I posted above, even religious leaders are culpable, with Ken Copeland (net worth $760M) claiming he can cure people via television.

        I hope one of the good things to come out of this is people looking for competence from leaders, vs. identifying with them based on politics, religion, etc. Competent people can adapt; ideological ones generally don’t.

        • 5th/77th FA says:

          Yep, LC spot on. It should be no secret here that I abhor politicians of most all of the “major” parties. I have been a registered Independent for decades, and in what used to be a yellow dog democrat state. Kemp got my vote this past time around, simply because there was no other choice in the election. I did not support his RINO azz in the primaries and he has pretty much crapped on the people that did vote for him. I usually don’t have any problem much of your opposing views. And I have agreed with you now and again. We are all subject to being royally screwed by the republicrats as the democans. That little fracas back in 1861-1865 proved that.

        • Poetrooper says:

          “I’m considered a stupid leftie here…”

          Don’t recall anyone here calling you stupid, LC, but as I said the other day, your left leg must be decidedly shorter than the right because you so frequently do seem to lean that way–with the occasional full-tilt leftward lurch.

          Okay, that’s it from me, you can go back to dancing with KOB.

          Watch that sly Georgia devil’s hands though…

        • NHSparky says:

          I have a picture (from Huffpo, no less) of the crowds gathered to watch USNS Comfort pulling into NYC.

          I’ve seen smarter herds of sheep.

    • HMCS(FMF) ret says:

      “Never let a crisis go to waste”